Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll of the year records an improvement in the Coalition’s position after a particularly bad result in the final poll last year.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 55-45 in the final poll of last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 37%, Labor is down three to 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Scott Morrison leads 43-36 on preferred prime minister, down from 44-36, and is down two on approval to 40% and up two on disapproval to 47%. Bill Shorten’s net rating is reported at minus 13%, compared with minus 15% in the last poll – we will have to wait for later to see his exact approval and disapproval ratings. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1634.

UPDATE: Shorten is up a point on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 50%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,983 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  4. Rossmg

    Best bit of advice I got from an adviser years ago was that my superannuation is to fund my retirement, not to make my kids rich.

    _____________________________________

    And that’s a big part of the problem. It’s a form of dynasticism. Older people obsess enormously about both running out of money (far out of proportion with the risk in most cases) and about leaving as much as possible to their children. The sad truth is, though, that the current laws are actually funding these obsessions at the cost of everyone else’s children (not to mention the quality of life of their own).

    PS. I’m like Jim Pembroke too (but with much smaller holdings). While never underestimating how much lefties suddenly turn right when it’s their lurks that are being threatened, there are not a few people like Mr Pembroke, Steve777 and myself who recognise this as a lurk which shouldn’t be there but which we’ll use while all those without a conscience keep using it.

  5. David Crowe
    ‏Verified account @CroweDM
    4h4 hours ago

    Independent MP Julia Banks confirms run for Flinders on the Mornington Peninsula, taking on Greg Hunt. She tells @theage why:

  6. I don’t believe in god, but for god’s sake!!

    White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said she believes God wanted President Donald Trump to win the 2016 election, the Christian Broadcasting Network reported on Wednesday.

    “I think God calls all of us to fill different roles at different times and I think that he wanted Donald Trump to become president, and that’s why he’s there,” Sanders told CBN’s David Brody and Jennifer Wishon, according to a transcript of the interview provided by CBN.
    “I think he has done a tremendous job in supporting a lot of the things that people of faith really care about,” Sanders added.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/30/politics/sarah-sanders-god-trump/index.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twCNNp&utm_content=2019-01-30T22%3A53%3A25&utm_term=image

  7. KayJay @ #1450 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 6:19 am

    😇Barney in Go Dau 😇

    The level of ignorance in our country is appalling.

    I mentioned Barney in Go Dau in casual conversation with my BP.

    The man looked askance (not easy to do after 5 P.M.).

    I will be keeping a sharp lookout for your next appearance. By the way – did the AFP give themselves a pass mark ❓

    🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟

    50% I’d give them.

    It took them two attempts to get it to me! 😆

  9. Tpof

    And of course as retirees “ run out of money “ in many cases the age pension increases to replace income.
    Works for me. I expect that if my super runs out sometime in my 90s I may have given up the more expensive activities I enjoy now.

  11. G’day Lizzie reminds me of Johnny Cash’s song
    Forty Shades of Green. 🎸

    The endless on and on (from me, Don and others)about photo’s, Outline is occasionally useful. 🍀

  12. Confessions @ #1456 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 6:32 am

    I don’t believe in god, but for god’s sake!!

    White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said she believes God wanted President Donald Trump to win the 2016 election, the Christian Broadcasting Network reported on Wednesday.

    “I think God calls all of us to fill different roles at different times and I think that he wanted Donald Trump to become president, and that’s why he’s there,” Sanders told CBN’s David Brody and Jennifer Wishon, according to a transcript of the interview provided by CBN.
    “I think he has done a tremendous job in supporting a lot of the things that people of faith really care about,” Sanders added.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/30/politics/sarah-sanders-god-trump/index.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twCNNp&utm_content=2019-01-30T22%3A53%3A25&utm_term=image

    So doG wanted Hi…

    Sorry won’t go there.

    Very dangerous when you cede responsibility to some imaginary entity.

  13. I’m all thunbs today (not green unfortunately).

    I turned my GP into a BP and I dazzent tell him at my next visit.
    Day release today.
    Over and out for the nonce. 😻

  17. Lizzie posted this a few pages back.
    Sandra Sully
    ‏ 14h14 hours ago

    EXCLUSIVE: 10 News First can reveal that Liberal Party research has found that Labor has a problem with the economy, and the government intends to make the most of it. @vanOnselenP

    I’m sure they mean that Liberal spinners have found that Labor has a problem with the economy in the minds of Liberal voters.
    Why is this news?

  18. Congratulations Barney on a life being well lived. Go well.

    Any Bludgers had a carpel tunnel done? I’ve succumbed to the pain and getting it fixed but have opted for local anaesthetic instead of knockout stuff. Dr says if keyhole can’t be done he’ll cut. Will I handle that with local? I’m a bit of a chicken when it comes to operations but need to get fit for prepoll and HTV days.

    Have appreciated all your comments when I’ve been able to lurk. Thankyou all and big hug to you BK. Lillies and kisses to you KayJay. You light up our days.

  19. My pensioner mother often complains that the pension isn’t enough for her to spend as much as she’d like on gifts to the grandchildren.

    The grandchildren often tell me they’re embarrassed by the amounts she spends on them…one of my sons told her he was more than pleased with the slippers she’d bought him, he didn’t need, want or expect anything more, but she kept asking what else she could get him.

  21. vote1julia @ #1428 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 9:01 am

    My 8kW system plus
    14kW Tesla battery was approx $25,ooo. It is a few years old and prices have dropped.

    Sounds about right, or maybe just slightly on the high side. I did a 6.5 kW microinverter system plus 27 kWh of storage (Tesla) for $30,000 (after all STC’s and such accounted for). That was deployed alongside a preexisting 5 kW system (from years ago, with standard 5 kW inverter) for 11.5 kW altogether.

    So total build cost around $36k, and on sunny days from about mid spring to mid autumn it’ll generate a net daily credit around the $10 mark (while running aircon and all the usual things; w/ new retailer agreement as of a week or so ago):

    But say on average it’s only a $5/day credit over the entire year, on a service that would otherwise cost $5/day. That (conservatively) puts the annual return at around $3650, and the entire thing pays for itself in 10 years at today’s rates. Which wasn’t the goal though still impressive since the system was deliberately overbuilt on the storage side.

    A single Powerwall setup would net almost identical performance and bring the total cost down to $25,000, allowing it to pay for itself in just 7 years.

  22. Roger Miller

    Why is this news?

    All news is now adjusted to make sure that Labor is attacked. Surveys are only quoted when favourable to the Libs.

  23. The Current State of Play:

    We’re slowly gearing up for a federal election in Australia, so you know what that means: it’s time for Bill Shorten and Scott Morrison to pretend they are human beings, and not walking mouldy sharehouse sponges.
    And wouldn’t you know it? Neither of them seem particularly up to the job.

    ScoMo has attempted to corner the market on affable Australian bloke, dribbling and waddling his way around his office in Facebook live videos that have the lurching, rising sense of dread usually reserved for the opening scenes of snuff films.

    Bill Shorten, meanwhile, has been perfecting his sensitive new age dad routine, which would be a look that might work better for him if he didn’t support the barbaric practice of offshore detention.

    https://junkee.com/bill-shorten-packed-lunch-picture/191402

  24. “10 News First can reveal that Liberal Party research has found that Labor has a problem with the economy.”

    Research by race baiters Crosby Textor ?

  25. ‘…which would be a look that might work better for him if he didn’t support the barbaric practice of offshore detention.’

    Given that Morrison does too, this sounds a bit desperate.

  26. He sounds like a potential Health Minister.

    A British politician has been criticised for responding to concerns a no-deal Brexit would create food shortages at supermarkets by suggesting people go to a fish and chip shop instead.

    Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) MP Sammy Wilson could be heard making the comment “go to the chippy” as the Scottish National Party’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford outlined concerns in the House of Commons that supermarket shelves would be empty of food if the UK left the European Union without a deal in place.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-31/uk-politician-says-go-to-the-chippy-instead-no-deal-brexit/10765936

  28. ‘Anyway, this utterly failed attempt to make a politician look like any human being you’ve ever met in your life is just the beginning of what is sure to be a long and painful election cycle. Welcome to the next four months of your life!’

    Well, if people are going to focus on the minutae to this extent – shock, horror, he’s feeding his kids Ryvita! – then yes, it is going to be long and painful.

    Wouldn’t it be wonderful if the media subjected policies to this kind of scrutiny? I’d even be happy to see Bill’s policies under this kind of spotlight.

  29. I like Bowen’s no nonsense comparisons in his latest Guardian piece on those tax loopholes.

    Making comparisons is something regular people (non policy wonks) can understand.

  30. Safe travels, Barney!
    Thoroughly enjoy reading your posts and look forward to more.
    You are living the dream…though I know there must be down sides at times.

  32. In regards Franking Credits, even the “Talking Points” heading an article in “The Age” refers to “income” not taxable income.

    Simply, a fully self funded retiree with the capped amount of $1.6 Million in a superannuation account, drawing a tax free Allocated Pension of $80,000- PA (and submitting no tax returns) can so arrange their financial affairs to receive the benefit of a Franking Credit because their taxable income is NIL, as can their spouse because the $1.6 Million is by individual account holder.

    We have a Social Security system we value and support (or did when we were in employment and remitting tax – without questioning what actually happens to the GST).

    People qualify for support under that Social Security system, by way of assets, income and applying for employment.

    The question therefore is, how do you qualify to receive a tax refund when you have not paid any tax in the first instance or been liable to pay tax (or submit a tax return)?

    Simply, you manipulate the allocation of liquid assets you hold outside your superannuation account, by purchasing Shares in Australian Companies paying fully franked dividends.

    That is the only criteria.

    So, compared to the Social Security system, accessing the public purse by manipulation and stealth.

    Because there is no income (taxable or otherwise) and no assets test.

    Is this fair and equitable and the path we wish to take Australia down?

    So replicating Greece!!

    No doubt the demographic so using Franking Credits is small by comparison to those requiring (and I use that description by purpose) access to the Social Security system, but well heeled and noisy (witness WAMI and others seeking 200,000 signatures on a Petition)

    Then we get to Social Security being delivered “cashless”, by Card.

    Spot the difference.

    Class warfare by a dysfunctional government.

  33. Shorten put the picture out there, and has been said it is completely styled, down to having the vegemite directly facing the camera. And Ryvita is disgusting. I don’t mind the snow peas, for which he has been criticised, they are crunchy and healthy. But Ryvita! He’s got plenty of money, get the kids a gourmet uber meal delivered at school. Perhaps a chicken salad or even a pasta.

  34. Interesting to me that the whole “polar vortex” thing is happening…again….in the northern hemishpere. Weather event that will kill people, caused by AGW, slapping us right in the face:

    ref: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2003GL019133

    Underlying cause warming in the Arctic, loss of sea ice volume. FFS, this was modeled back in 2003..just not thought to happen much from that modeling till 2050-75 or so.

    Mechanisms in the Southern Hemishpere less well understood, but its not like its not obvious that there is a problem here.

    Funny that in a backhanded kind of way the Libs policy paralysis on energy and denial of any real issue with AGW seems to have actually made Coal a much less viable investment option. Their sacred markets making a decision to avoid new investment and even maintaining what is already in place.

    And people still argue that the science isn’t settled enough to inform public policy.

  35. Remarkably little media reporting on this —

    ‘Australia has made some progress replacing coal with natural gas and renewables in electricity generation yet remains one of the most carbon-intensive OECD countries and one of the few where greenhouse gas emissions (excluding land use change and forestry) have risen in the past decade. The country will fall short of its 2030 emissions target without a major effort to move to a low-carbon model, according to a new OECD report.’

    http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/australia-needs-to-intensify-efforts-to-meet-its-2030-emissions-goal.htm

  36. #WeatheronPB. Sydney has had its hottest monthly average minimum for any month (21.7), just shaving the old record set in 2017 (160 years of record). If today’s predicted max of 40 is reached, it will be equal with 2017 for hottest monthly maximum for any month (29.6 on the breezy Harbour headland, up to 34 in the outer Western suburbs).

  37. One for Rex or was it nath , which ever one of you said ‘whaddabout Family Trusts ?’ Well there is a sign a Labor government could make a move in that area.
    From BK’s Dawn Patrol. After Bowen said……….

    $5.2bn on public schools in 2014-15, but $5.9bn the same year on being the only country in the world that sends tax refunds to shareholders who haven’t actually paid any tax?

    Family Trusts got a run.

    Or were you aware that the federal government spends $1.8bn on Tafe and skills but forgoes $2bn a year because we let family trusts distribute income to family members tax-free or at lower tax rates?

    Our pledge to tackle these tax expenditures ………………

    Actions will speak louder than words but at last these issues are being mentioned and are in the ‘pending’ file rather than the bottom drawer. Or in the case of the Coalition the ‘Never to be Opened’ file.

  38. BH @ #14339 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 11:06 am

    Congratulations Barney on a life being well lived. Go well.

    Any Bludgers had a carpel tunnel done? I’ve succumbed to the pain and getting it fixed but have opted for local anaesthetic instead of knockout stuff. Dr says if keyhole can’t be done he’ll cut. Will I handle that with local? I’m a bit of a chicken when it comes to operations but need to get fit for prepoll and HTV days.

    Have appreciated all your comments when I’ve been able to lurk. Thankyou all and big hug to you BK. Lillies and kisses to you KayJay. You light up our days.

    Local is usually fine for all but the most complicated non-open (“keyhole”) carpal tunnel procedures and often adequate for the open stuff – though the alternative there is a regional block (which is fairly easy with the arm). All of these are probably better than the potential complications of general anaesthesia (though I’d defer instantly to Itsadream’s decades of experience on this).

    One thing to be aware of is that surgery rarely settles chronic pain associated with carpal tunnel syndrome quickly – there is usually a 2-4 week period where the inflammation associated with healing drives continuing pain, particularly if you have had it for a long time (or have been on opioids for longer than a couple of months). Anti inflammatory agents like paracetamol help. Carpal tunnel surgery itself has a strong placebo effect anyway, and the long term outcome is usually excellent, provided the problem was the carpal tunnel in the first place.

  40. BH @ #1468 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 11:06 am

    Congratulations Barney on a life being well lived. Go well.

    Any Bludgers had a carpel tunnel done? I’ve succumbed to the pain and getting it fixed but have opted for local anaesthetic instead of knockout stuff. Dr says if keyhole can’t be done he’ll cut. Will I handle that with local? I’m a bit of a chicken when it comes to operations but need to get fit for prepoll and HTV days.

    Have appreciated all your comments when I’ve been able to lurk. Thankyou all and big hug to you BK. Lillies and kisses to you KayJay. You light up our days.

    I often wonder about you and think of the post I wrote concerning the fabulous but invisible Bruce of Telstra fame.
    “Three accounts ❓ ” he said “have we got a bundle for you ❗ “

    Works well now – my bundle which I try to not drop.

    I always enjoy the coming out of whatever stuff the Docs 😷 give one. I’m as mad as Billyo after a colonoscopy. Takes a while to wear off and then the Universe comes back into focus.

    I’m just trying to enjoy what remains of my life as best I can.

    Best wishes to you and your family. Internet hugs and kisses. 💕

    Strange how we seem to like this one or that one. I think I have told this story previously.
    My very, very favourite daughter (due any minute now) occasionally takes me to the local garage where Charlie is the proprietor. Charlie gives me ferocious, bone rattling hugs and proceeds to tell me of his and mother’s state of play. (Mother very unwell). I used to kiss him. I am happy to kiss anybody that appears kissable (some are not). Charlie has revolted at this treatment so that now I have to kiss FD on the cheek and then FD kisses Charlie on the cheek. Seems like double handling to me but when I ask FD –
    What do I know ❓
    she says, of course.
    Nothing ❗
    Be good to yourself. Call in from time to time please. 😲😵

  41. Richard Kingsford knows what he’s talking about.

    At an institutional level, environment agencies are weak. Environment ministers are usually low in the cabinet pecking order. Talented environment ministers are rapidly promoted up and out. Ministerial muscle lies with natural resources portfolios that serve powerful export industry lobbies, such as irrigated agriculture and mining. Where senior ministers hold environment portfolios, they often also juggle others that consume attention, such as energy.

    Environment agencies also often lose policies within government. The 2012 fisheries advice on the Barwon-Darling water-sharing plan went unheeded in an agency dominated by agriculture and water, reporting to the one minister. Native fish don’t only have a problem in the river.

    Other environmental policies have experienced similar challenges in NSW. The NSW Department of Primary Industries, not Environment, was given the lead role in revising the state’s Biodiversity Conservation Act 2016, subsuming the Native Vegetation Act 2003, Threatened Species Act 1995 and the National Parks and Wildlife Act 1974.

    The scene in the drainage canal of lake Cawndilla, one of the four main lakes of the Menindee Lakes, following the mass fish kill on the Darling River.
    The scene in the drainage canal of lake Cawndilla, one of the four main lakes of the Menindee Lakes, following the mass fish kill on the Darling River.CREDIT:NICK MOIR

    NSW is now returning to some of the highest land-clearing rates in the country. And yet we legally protect feral horses in Kosciuszko National Park. Like that old English proverb, today’s environment agencies are often required to behave like children – to be seen but not heard.

    In the aftermath of one our worst environmental catastrophes, the deafening silence from state and federal environment ministers underlines institutional environmental feebleness when the Australian community needs strong environmental leadership.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-successive-government-failures-behind-the-fish-kills-20190129-p50ued.html

  42. nath

    It is good but I was surprised it was not more. I guess other tax rorts have become more fashionable. Speaking of which . Has Lucien Aye repatriated his loot from the ‘notorious tax haven’ that is the Cayman Islands ?

  43. lizzie @ #1477 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 7:19 am

    It’s the old story – Superannuation income (for fund balances of up to $1.6 million) is generally not subject to tax in the retirement phase, and is therefore excluded from taxable income.

    Will Labor’s dividend imputation policy overwhelmingly affect the low paid? – NO Fact Check – ABC News

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-30/fact-check-labors-dividend-imputation-policy/10626204?pfmredir=sm

    Thanks lizzie.

    Yep, I don’t think the non taxable income has been highlighted enough.

    If you’re not getting a Government pension then you have a sufficient income through super which is largely if not completely tax free.

    A lot of the discussion seems to be as if the franking credits are the only source of income. 🙂

  46. jenauthor
    says:
    Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 11:46 am
    Bowen and Shorten said they would be reforming family trusts over a year ago … people don’t pay attention.
    _____________________________
    Yeah and Costello said something similar 15 years ago. As poroti said, I’ll believe it when I see legislation.

  49. poroti
    says:
    Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 11:43 am
    nath
    It is good but I was surprised it was not more. I guess other tax rorts have become more fashionable. Speaking of which . Has Lucien Aye repatriated his loot from the ‘notorious tax haven’ that is the Cayman Islands ?
    _____________________________________
    I guess the trusts are just good to distribute income, I suppose the real art form these days is deductions.

  50. Nakari Thorpe
    ‏

    Prime Minister @ScottMorrisonMP says an Indigenous voice to the parliament will need to demonstrate how it will assist with issues like youth suicide, employment and school attendance as he prepares to respond to the Joint Select Committee’s report #auspol @NITV

    He has NFI. He’s blocking.

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