Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll of the year records an improvement in the Coalition’s position after a particularly bad result in the final poll last year.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 55-45 in the final poll of last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 37%, Labor is down three to 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Scott Morrison leads 43-36 on preferred prime minister, down from 44-36, and is down two on approval to 40% and up two on disapproval to 47%. Bill Shorten’s net rating is reported at minus 13%, compared with minus 15% in the last poll – we will have to wait for later to see his exact approval and disapproval ratings. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1634.

UPDATE: Shorten is up a point on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 50%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,983 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 31 of 40
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  1. RHWombat
    Many thanks. Your comment is most appreciated. Definitely carpel tunnel, with muscle wasting unfortunately, but with our son’s illness/passing and then OH almost joining him a few months ago, my hand was sent to the back blocks. I can’t take anything but paracetomal and I’m certainly ODing on dencorub arthritis cream.
    A couple of unfortunate episodes with previous ops has left me wary of anaesthetics but one can’t life with 1 hand for the want of being a bit braver. I’ll have another chat with the poor bloke doing the op. Who said getting was old was fun?!! Courage, girl, courage!!
    Typing with left hand is hilarious and takes so long but works on the scroll pad hence the lurking for so long.

    GG has it really been since 2005 we’ve been pulled in by William’s blog? Hasn’t time flown.

  2. The Sydney Morning Herald

    Verified account

    @smh
    3m3 minutes ago
    More
    Breaking: Massive power outage in Sydney’s eastern suburbs, about 45,000 people left without power| @rachelclun

  3. lizzie @ #1500 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 7:52 am

    Nakari Thorpe

    Prime Minister @ScottMorrisonMP says an Indigenous voice to the parliament will need to demonstrate how it will assist with issues like youth suicide, employment and school attendance as he prepares to respond to the Joint Select Committee’s report #auspol @NITV

    He has NFI. He’s blocking.

    Well he’s partly right.

    It wouldn’t assist in those areas while he’s PM because the Government wouldn’t listen to what they would say.

    F’wit!!!

  4. lizzie @ #1496 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 10:52 am

    Nakari Thorpe

    Prime Minister @ScottMorrisonMP says an Indigenous voice to the parliament will need to demonstrate how it will assist with issues like youth suicide, employment and school attendance as he prepares to respond to the Joint Select Committee’s report #auspol @NITV

    He has NFI. He’s blocking.

    He’s doing that thing that the Network 10 lady did.

    It’s the whole condescending “you can’t have what you want until you do what I think you need to do first, because I know what you need better than you do” thing. And disingenuous because it’s implying that two things can’t be done at the same time, even when they’re obviously independent and unrelated to each other.

  5. BH @ #1501 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 11:56 am

    RHWombat
    Many thanks. Your comment is most appreciated. Definitely carpel tunnel, with muscle wasting unfortunately, but with our son’s illness/passing and then OH almost joining him a few months ago, my hand was sent to the back blocks. I can’t take anything but paracetomal and I’m certainly ODing on dencorub arthritis cream.
    A couple of unfortunate episodes with previous ops has left me wary of anaesthetics but one can’t life with 1 hand for the want of being a bit braver. I’ll have another chat with the poor bloke doing the op. Who said getting was old was fun?!! Courage, girl, courage!!
    Typing with left hand is hilarious and takes so long but works on the scroll pad hence the lurking for so long.

    GG has it really been since 2005 we’ve been pulled in by William’s blog? Hasn’t time flown.

    And some ghosts can be heard as we pass by this Billabong…….

  6. MarkJS

    Good move selecting Sonnen. As you would know it’s a relatively long established mob, and the specs on their batteries are superior to Tesla and others. I guess you are aware of the “Sonnen Community” which I intend to join.

    For those not in the know, the SC is a scheme that allows my battery to be charged on a cloudy, rainy day by the overflow from the panels on another SC member’s roof (in another part of Australia) who is enjoying a sunny day and whose battery is already fully charged.

  7. It’s good that the Coalition is doing such a wonderful job of managing energy resources.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/massive-power-outage-in-sydney-s-eastern-suburbs-leaves-thousands-in-the-dark-20190131-p50urm.html

    Massive power outage in Sydney’s eastern suburbs leaves thousands in the dark
    Rachel Clun January 31, 2019

    A major power outage has left thousands of homes and businesses in Sydney’s eastern suburbs in the dark.

    About 45,000 homes and businesses in suburbs including Double Bay, Edgecliff, Bondi Junction have been without power since 11.20am. Ausgrid said they were investigating the cause of the outage.

    The blackout comes after news two NSW power stations broke down on Wednesday, leaving a potential shortfall in back-up power for Thursday.

    Temperatures have soared in Sydney, with tops of 40 degrees expected in the west and 38 degrees in the city.

    Just before midday on Thursday it was 32.9 degrees at Observatory Hill, 31.1 degrees on Sydney Harbour and 35.2 degrees at Sydney Airport.

    More to come

  8. Superannuation is not a risk free environment – unless you are 100% allocated to Cash.

    I put some details on here recently in regards the performance of funds under management including that the impact of the GFC is still very real and very present.

    The mathematics of that contribution of mine speak.

    Since the inception of the ASX200, annual performance has been:-
    5.41%, MINUS 7.86%, MINUS 5.91%, 16.76%, 21.08%, 18.62%, 23.67% (the 4 years from 2004 inclusive being the Mining Boom Phase 1 and when private debt exploded, witness Storm Financial and the raft of others), MINUS 16.89%, MINUS 24.17%, 8.76%, 7.13%, MINUS 11.14%, 17.29%, 12.35%, 1.17%, MINUS 4.13%, 9.33% and 8.27%.

    This of course is absent Dividends (and Franking Credits!!!)

    Then we have the current financial year YTD to add to that.

    There are of course sections, with Health over the past 3 years to 30/06/2018 being at 25.21%, 13.21% and 18.71% as the stand out performer.

    Energy has been MINUS 24.89%, 5.97% and 38.19%

    Financials has been MINUS 9.08%, 11.74% and MINUS 3.85% (so pre-dating Hayne)

    As I always say, the aggregation of data and the comparative speak.

    A story is so told – and supported.

    There is therefore, quite rightly, a focus on performance and, given rising costs of living, income protection (and enhancement because your capital base delivering that income is increasing in value. You get nothing for nothing in this World).

    It is your accruals in superannuation, delivering your income and your life style.

    And if that discipline results in your succeeding generations also seeing a benefit, then so be it.

    Inter generational wealth has always been a factor (noting that the parents of both my wife and me were (are) Aged Pensioners so we have not been the beneficiaries of inter generational wealth, but so be it. Some win the Lottery!! And neither of us have won that either).

    What you can control is what you do and how you manage.

    Management is the ongoing discipline.

  9. Stephen Koukoulas
    ‏@TheKouk
    20m20 minutes ago

    One for Mr Frydenberg:
    The government is borrowing approx $300 million this year to pay the interest on the $16 billion of extra debt from last year which it needed to borrow to cover the cost of dividend refunds, negative gearing & capital gain tax concessions:

  10. @TimWilsonMP

    Standing room only in #Paddington, Brisbane for the final hearing today into @billshortenmp’s #RetirementTax. Fantastic that Australians are making their voices heard on this important issue.

    Greg Jericho
    ‏@GrogsGamut

    More taxpayer funded partisan work being done by a parliamentary committee. An utter disgrace.

  11. GG
    ‘And some ghosts can be heard as we pass by this Billabong…….’ and couldn’t we write a book about them or rather, JenAuthor can.

    Lizzie – thanks. I always enjoy your posts. Bird discussion the other day was great.

    KayJay – Telstra, haha. I’m about to have a bout with them . Time to renew but what to, I wonder. Hope I don’t meet up with Bruce!

  12. BH @ #1468 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 11:06 am

    Congratulations Barney on a life being well lived. Go well.

    Any Bludgers had a carpel tunnel done? I’ve succumbed to the pain and getting it fixed but have opted for local anaesthetic instead of knockout stuff. Dr says if keyhole can’t be done he’ll cut. Will I handle that with local? I’m a bit of a chicken when it comes to operations but need to get fit for prepoll and HTV days.

    Have appreciated all your comments when I’ve been able to lurk. Thankyou all and big hug to you BK. Lillies and kisses to you KayJay. You light up our days.

    I was going to have it done soon, but when the specialist looked at it and my symptoms last week, he said I’d be fine possibly for a period of five years or so, with an injection of cortisone, and jabbed me. So far so good.

    May I suggest that you only get one wrist done at a time. My GP (originally a surgeon in Germany) had it done in his thirties, brought on by holding on hard to retraction (?) equipment during surgery under direction of the head honcho surgeon for hours at a time.

    It got to the point where he could not tie sutures without seeing his fingers, they were too numb for him to feel what he was doing. He had both wrists done, one on Friday and one on the following Monday. You get use of your hand back reasonably fully after four to six weeks, apparently. In the meantime his wife had to help him with all tasks, and I mean all tasks.

    If only one hand is done at a time, most people can manage things like going to the toilet, and other things that can be done with just one hand, so my GP tells me.

    You will have to be guided by your surgeon so far as local vs general, up to you and them.

    Like you I cannot handle pain, I am a complete woos in that case. So if it were me I’d talk to him about having pain management drugs and drugs that keep you peaceful with the world as well as local anaesthetic, if you go that route.

    They used to dose you up with a glass of rum in the old days on sailing ships, when an amputation was required, a treatment which has a lot going for it!

  13. Hi everyone

    I note all the positive stuff on here about Labor’s tax policies, Bowen’s article in the Guardian today, etc.

    However, the way I see it is that this stuff continues to draw lots of attention and controversy in the direction of Labor and takes the spotlight off the Libs and their problems.

    You can argue that it’s good policy, but you certainly can’t argue it’s anything other than dreadful political tactics. There was a clear and obvious opportunity to drop these policies when Turnbull got the boot, and for some reason Labor didn’t take it up.

  14. Maybe, Meher, they didn’t WANT to drop these policies???

    It is quite apparent these loopholes/rorts are massive time-bombs that have been growing.

    To be an alternative govt, you need to present a credible alternative.

  15. but you certainly can’t argue it’s anything other than dreadful political tactics.

    I can and I will.

    Labor has absolutely no interest in repeating the ‘carbon tax’ bullshit, nor lying their way into government like this mob and finding themselves boxed in.

    A (vastly overstated) bit of short term political pain will yield a massive political bonus when Labor shows it says what it intends to do, and does what it says.

    The contrast will be stark and worth plenty in the long run.

  16. don
    Thanks for that. I used to have a huge pain threshhold but it’s vanished now. Like your GP I can no longer feel anything – numb as – so it’s past the cortisone stage. The right one is being done first and if it can be done by keyhole the Dr wants to do the left hand as well – it is getting bad If the right one is slashed then the left will wait but I’ll take your advice and make it 1 only this time. Appreciate you mentioning it.

  17. meher baba

    If I have a criticism of Bowen, it is that he speaks too quickly in complicated sentences. I know we don’t want too many three word grabs, but financial matters are often complicated and hard to grasp, which is where the “retirement tax” makes the cut.

  18. “The country will fall short of its 2030 emissions target without a major effort to move to a low-carbon model, according to a new OECD report.’”

    No, no,no,no,no……..we will meet our targets in a canter dont cha no!! 🙁

  19. lizzie @ #1512 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 12:14 pm

    @TimWilsonMP

    Standing room only in #Paddington, Brisbane for the final hearing today into @billshortenmp’s #RetirementTax. Fantastic that Australians are making their voices heard on this important issue.

    Greg Jericho
    ‏@GrogsGamut

    More taxpayer funded partisan work being done by a parliamentary committee. An utter disgrace.

    I’d love to see the booth counts from the Paddington area for the last federal election.
    Hmm, let me have a guess, the LNP won all of them on Primaries alone?

  20. Abbott illustrated perfectly the limits of the “small target” strategy when he sprung a bunch of nasty surprises that the electorate was completely unprepared for after he got into office. The Government never really recovered from the disaster of that first budget (the one where the enduring image left was the one of Cormann and Hockey puffing away on cigars together).

    If Labor actually wants to implement some policies of its own that won’t be completely uncontroversial it does have to float them now. By the time they actually get around to legislating them, the argument will be completely played out.

  21. “A (vastly overstated) bit of short term political pain will yield a massive political bonus when Labor shows it says what it intends to do, and does what it says.”

    Agreed. Lesson to be learned from the Victoria State election.

  22. lizzie @ #1521 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 12:43 pm

    meher baba

    If I have a criticism of Bowen, it is that he speaks too quickly in complicated sentences. I know we don’t want too many three word grabs, but financial matters are often complicated and hard to grasp, which is where the “retirement tax” makes the cut.

    I’ll pass that message on to his dad, to pass on to Chris, when I see him next. 🙂

  23. meher baba @ #1516 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 8:24 am

    Hi everyone

    I note all the positive stuff on here about Labor’s tax policies, Bowen’s article in the Guardian today, etc.

    However, the way I see it is that this stuff continues to draw lots of attention and controversy in the direction of Labor and takes the spotlight off the Libs and their problems.

    You can argue that it’s good policy, but you certainly can’t argue it’s anything other than dreadful political tactics. There was a clear and obvious opportunity to drop these policies when Turnbull got the boot, and for some reason Labor didn’t take it up.

    Rubbish.

    Why would they drop it?

    It’s an important part of a considered police platform around tax reform.

    That would just be playing into the Government’s hands.

    Meanwhile the Government can only talk about what Labor will do because they can’t talk about themselves as they haven’t done much to talk about and have few plans for the future. 😆

  24. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has sent letters to former members of the Liberal Party, pleading for them to rejoin ahead of the federal election.

    “I wanted to write personally and encourage you to rejoin the Liberal Party.”

    “We need everyone who believes in our values to become energised members of our movement,” he writes.

    If this doesn’t work, help! It’s the whole begging letter.

    https://imageresizer.static9.net.au/7OPqqRwFzytMYupsfEiTLpWRWh8=/800×0/smart/http%3A%2F%2Fprod.static9.net.au%2F_%2Fmedia%2F2019%2F01%2F31%2F12%2F01%2FScott-Morrison.jpeg

  25. Since when did Australia become a country of Retiree Leaners!?! I thought everyone was expected to pay their way, not rely on the government to hand out lurks and perks, paid for by the taxpayers!

  26. MB:

    The ALP stands for something. The tax changes are entirely consistent with that stand. It gives the ALP integrity, an invaluable political tool.

    By contrast the LNP refusal to introduce an energy policy to meet the challenges of climate change has left it essentially unelectable. Since the LNP pollies all mouth meeting emission targets without a viable policy this destroys any perceived integrity.

    Perhaps not all of Phelps, Yates, Banks and Steggal will get in. But any that do can thank the LNP failure on energy. I imagine a back down by the ALP on taxation reform would lead to similar opportunities – and rightly so.

  27. MB:

    The ALP stands for something. The tax changes are entirely consistent with that stand. It gives the ALP integrity, an invaluable political tool.

    By contrast the LNP refusal to introduce an energy policy to meet the challenges of climate change has left it essentially unelectable. Since the LNP pollies all mouth meeting emission targets without a viable policy this destroys any perceived integrity.

    Perhaps not all of Phelps, Yates, Banks and Steggal will get in. But any that do can thank the LNP failure on energy. I imagine a back down by the ALP on taxation reform would lead to similar opportunities – and rightly so.

  28. lizzie @ #827 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 9:48 am

    The wordy war continues. I wonder who invented the phrase “retirees tax”. It has a whiff of Tony Abbott about it.

    @JoshFrydenberg

    Aus retirees are scared about what their retirement will look like under a @billshortenmp Labor Govt with its punishing retirees tax. @Bowenchris’ arrogant response: “vote against us”. Labor isn’t listening. Labor doesn’t care. Retirement savings should be respected, not raided.

    @Bowenchris
    56m56 minutes ago

    What’s arrogant & disrespectful is refusing to be honest with the Australian people & hiding policies until after an election like the Liberals. Labor has too much respect for the Australian people for that. We are laying out our plans & letting the people judge.Give it a go Josh

    These two dolts are kidding themselves.

    A failed Energy minister turned Treasurer and a failed Immigration minister turned Treasurer-in-waiting.

    There’s no light at the end of this tunnel we’re stuck in.

  29. They used to dose you up with a glass of rum in the old days on sailing ships, when an amputation was required, a treatment which has a lot going for it!

    If you’re one of the 60-80% of amputees that suffer from a “phantom limb”, does your phantom hand still have phantom carpal tunnel syndrome?

  30. @levelsofspecial

    At times the 2019 me sees the world with my 1979 eyes.

    Morning walk down empty street, and guy smiles and says, “Hi, how are you!?”
    Start to answer.. then I see it.
    The Bluetooth earpiece.
    He walks straight past, eyes fixed dead ahead.

    1979 me thinks this is really fucked up.

  31. “Since when did Australia become a country of Retiree Leaners!?! I thought everyone was expected to pay their way, not rely on the government to hand out lurks and perks, paid for by the taxpayers!”

    From whats being published on the franking credits issue (Gottliebson has lost the plot i think?) The people bleating are overwhelmingly not people who would vote ALP anyway. Bugger the lot of them. I dont want MY tax money funding their freebie top ups.

    Also, people can whine and moan about “fairness” but bottom line is that an incoming Govt needs to rebuild the revenue base so badly undermined by the Libs over a lot of years. Yup there will be pain for some, and hopefully, over the whole budget, that will get somewhat spread around.

  32. The simple truth is that if reigning in a few benefits that only a very small and wealthy percentage of the population can access is enough to save this shitshow of a government by clusterfuck then this country is far too stupid to govern.

    Nothing in the polling nor recent actual election results supports this contention.

    The consistent anti Coalition swings pretty much across the board since the Tasmanian government was elected point to the obvious truth that the Coalition is severely out of touch and on the nose. And no where is it more on the nose than Federally, and with good reason.

    There simply hasn’t been a better time for Labor to run with all their ‘courageous’ policies on clear display. They will start in government with more authority and credibility to pursue their agenda than any government since 98.

  33. lizzie @ #1537 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 8:59 am

    @levelsofspecial

    At times the 2019 me sees the world with my 1979 eyes.

    Morning walk down empty street, and guy smiles and says, “Hi, how are you!?”
    Start to answer.. then I see it.
    The Bluetooth earpiece.
    He walks straight past, eyes fixed dead ahead.

    1979 me thinks this is really fucked up.

    Not a problem here.

    If a Vietnamese person says “hello” you can be nearly certain they’re answering their phone, otherwise they say hello in Vietnamese. 😆

  34. Stuart Tomlinson

    Scott Morrison is in our State of Queensland & unless he is here to tell the people of Biloela that the Sri Lankan family & their two Australian born children are going to be released & returned to Biloela then he can hightail it out of our State and get back to Canberra

  35. C@tmomma @ #674 Wednesday, January 30th, 2019 – 9:31 pm

    …..nath is a disgusting, slimy, hateful grub who has a heart the size of a currant and I wish he would piss off from PB because the blog is always better when he isn’t around.

    A shameful example of foul abuse that really only reflects on the author.

    Have a little respect for the owner of this blog.

  36. ‘Flinders constituents finally have a chance of living in a swing seat and feasting on endless pork..’

    Common misconception.

    If Flinders went indie, or if the 2PP got down to Liberal/indie, it would not be a ‘targetted seat’ (they’re the ones which get the ‘pork’).

    It might get attention from the Liberals (which is only useful if the Liberals are going to win government) but it won’t from Labor.

    In fact, often it’s quite the reverse.

    Look at it this way – the best indie in Victoria is in a queue behind 55 Labor sitting members. It’s probably worse than that – there’s probably another half dozen Coalition-held marginals which Labor will target ahead of any indie seat.

    The only way an indie gets attention is if they hold the balance of power. That didn’t happen in the Victorian election, and it’s very unlikely to happen in the federal one.

  37. 7 News Brisbane
    ‏Verified account @7NewsBrisbane
    10m10 minutes ago

    “I called him a sleazebag at the time and I stand by those comments”: Deputy Premier @jackietrad has hit out at Whitsunday MP Jason Costigan after he was suspended from the Liberal National Party following a harassment claim. @CostoMP Report on 7 News at 6pm. #qldpol #7News

  38. Ricky Davila
    ‏ @TheRickyDavila
    2h2 hours ago

    Elected bigot Kim Davis used her elected position some time ago to unleash hate on gay couples and now she’s being ordered to pay the legal fees they incurred from suing her. That’s absolutely beautiful. ️‍

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