Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll of the year records an improvement in the Coalition’s position after a particularly bad result in the final poll last year.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 55-45 in the final poll of last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 37%, Labor is down three to 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Scott Morrison leads 43-36 on preferred prime minister, down from 44-36, and is down two on approval to 40% and up two on disapproval to 47%. Bill Shorten’s net rating is reported at minus 13%, compared with minus 15% in the last poll – we will have to wait for later to see his exact approval and disapproval ratings. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1634.

UPDATE: Shorten is up a point on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 50%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,983 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. zoomster @ #960 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 1:11 pm

    ‘Flinders constituents finally have a chance of living in a swing seat and feasting on endless pork..’

    Common misconception.

    If Flinders went indie, or if the 2PP got down to Liberal/indie, it would not be a ‘targetted seat’ (they’re the ones which get the ‘pork’).

    It might get attention from the Liberals (which is only useful if the Liberals are going to win government) but it won’t from Labor.

    In fact, often it’s quite the reverse.

    Look at it this way – the best indie in Victoria is in a queue behind 55 Labor sitting members. It’s probably worse than that – there’s probably another half dozen Coalition-held marginals which Labor will target ahead of any indie seat.

    The only way an indie gets attention is if they hold the balance of power. That didn’t happen in the Victorian election, and it’s very unlikely to happen in the federal one.

    It’s definitely a close 3 way battle in Flinders. Labor won the state seat just a few months ago.

  4. Rex Douglas @ #1546 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 9:11 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #952 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 1:00 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1536 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 8:58 am

    Flinders constituents finally have a chance of living in a swing seat and feasting on endless pork. I’m pleased for them.

    Yes, she represents all you stand for, doesn’t she? 😆

    Banks is an improvement on Hunt – you’d agree with that, surely ?

    Yes, but that doesn’t support your original comment and it suggests they like what the Government is serving up in a Economic policy sense. 😆

  5. Ben Murphy
    ‏Verified account @BenBMurph
    40m40 minutes ago

    Opposition Leader @DebFrecklington says she “totally supports” the action of @LNPQLD and “demanded it” over the suspension of Jason Costigan #qldpol @7NewsBrisbane

    Ben Murphy
    ‏Verified account @BenBMurph
    37m37 minutes ago

    Deb Frecklington says police are now involved and are investigating the matter but won’t reveal the exact nature of the allegations #qldpol

  6. Rex Douglas @ #1544 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 1:08 pm

    C@tmomma @ #674 Wednesday, January 30th, 2019 – 9:31 pm

    …..nath is a disgusting, slimy, hateful grub who has a heart the size of a currant and I wish he would piss off from PB because the blog is always better when he isn’t around.

    A shameful example of foul abuse that really only reflects on the author.

    Have a little respect for the owner of this blog.

    Piss off with your sanctimony and one-sided commentary, Rex Douglas. If you had bothered to read the disgusting slurs nath was throwing around like confetti at the much-loved Greensborough Growler, and to which I was responding, and I notice you have carefully edited out that part of my post where I praised the wonderful man that is GG so as to decontextualise my spray, then you would retract forthwith what you have just posted.

    But you won’t, will you? So that makes you just as bad as nath in my book, as I don’t see where you have condemned him for his outright bigotry.

  7. …and, no, Rex, Labor only won one of the three state seats. Liberals won Hastings (which surprises me, having lived there in the past) and Mornington, Labor won Nepean – and only just scraped across the line.

  9. Tweets

    Guardian Australia
    ‏Verified account @GuardianAus
    18s19 seconds ago

    Murray-Darling Basin royal commission finds that commonwealth officials committed gross maladministration, negligence and unlawful actions in drawing up the multi-billion-dollar deal to save Australia’s largest river system.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/31/murray-darling-basin-royal-commission-report-finds-gross-maladministration?CMP=soc_568

    Liberals +Nats can’t be trusted.

  10. Labor should loudly proclaim the “Retirement Tax” a lie. These guys aren’t paying any bloody tax and won’t in future. They are now getting a refund of tax they didn’t pay. It’s welfare for “self funded” wankers retirees.

  11. @Cat – Typing with left hand only . So slow but I want to do prepoll and HTVs so need 2 hands. Lurking is less painful altho I’m aware the blog needs all to contribute. Thank goodness so many of you do.

    I’m with lizzie. I really like Bowen’s content but gawd he’s hard to watch on telly or hear on radio. It comes out as as garble. Too many words, too fast. OH and I thought it was just us but our friends and even our daughter say the same.
    Frydenburg is so slow and refuses to be pushed but Chris rushes it too much. Surely others have pointed it out to him.

  13. Maybe they need an independent body for Government Advertising which sits along side the independent body for Verifying and Authorising Statistics.

    The Government of the day would ask the office to conduct a certain campaign but would have no input or oversight after that.
    😆

  14. C@tmomma
    If you had bothered to read the disgusting slurs nath was throwing around like confetti at the much-loved Greensborough Growler, and to which I was responding, and I notice you have carefully edited out that part of my post where I praised the wonderful man that is GG
    ____________________________
    Actually I would like to know what these ‘disgusting slurs’ were, apart from calling him a nutter, which is pretty standard around here.

  15. Renewables strike again!

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/massive-power-outage-in-sydney-s-eastern-suburbs-leaves-thousands-in-the-dark-20190131-p50urm.html

    Only about 12.6% of NSW energy is from renewables (2017) but it’s that one in eight electrons wot done it! Plus those renewable electrons leaking across from neighboring Labor states.

    I wonder if the Federal Energy Minister (forgotten their name) and Daily Telecrap will loudly condemn the NSW Coalition Government.

    And the thing is, it’s not that hot, with the humidity easing a bit for once. About 30 at 10:00, 36 now. Adelaidians and Melbournians would hardly notice.

  16. A prominent lawyer has said there needs to be a thorough investigation into the transfer of assets from an Aboriginal housing company which will result in 37 properties going under the hammer in Toowoomba on Saturday.

    Senior partner at Levitt Robinson Solicitors, Stewart Levitt said the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) should – in conjunction with the Queensland Police– immediately get involved in investigating title transfers to the Downs Housing Company.

    Around 100 Aboriginal tenants, many of them living with serious health concerns and disability, are currently faced with a May eviction from their homes. Some of the families have lived on the properties for over 40 years.

    The houses were originally owned by the Downs Aborigines and Islanders Company Ltd, set up in 1983.

    In April 2016, after a chequered 30-year history, the company transferred its remaining 37 properties to a new company, Downs Housing.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/article/2019/01/30/indigenous-tenants-face-uncertain-future-houses-go-auction

  18. The Murdoch media and their political arm, the LNP, have obviously decided to go hard on TAX! TAX! TAX! to start the year. Labor is doing a good job making the case for this, but need to release details of low and middle income tax cuts that can be supported by closing the tax-bludger loopholes deliberately put into the tax system by Howard and Costello. Perhaps announce an increase in the tax-free threshold – saying everyone benefits and those on lower incomes benefit the most. They need to hammer how the wealthy are using these loopholes to pay less tax than average income earners, and highlight they have fed the speculative and unsustainable real estate bubble that has diverted investment away from more productive investment. They also need to find examples/trends of negatively geared properties being let via airbnb rather than creating rentals in inner city and holiday areas. This is seen a ‘savvy’ way of having a holiday house or inner city pad as an investment property – you can have someone you know book it for the periods you want to use it, rent it out at other times, and claim all maintenance, furnishings, cleaning and improvements on you tax. If you price it high, you can also run a rental ‘loss’ on your (usually) appreciating asset and have otehr taxpayers pick up the tab for you. There are people who boast about this on line, so it shouldn’t be hard to find examples of the well off playing the system and not creating the cheaper rentals that negative gearing is meant to produce. Labor is on very sound grounds of fiscal responsibility with this, and hopefully they can get eminent economists to shoot down the murdoch/LNP fear campaign

  20. This was 2013. It was full of hot air and lies. Scott Morrison has a new pamphlet that is exactly the same.

    Fool me once, shame on you.
    Fool me twice, shame on me!

    Don’t get fooled again!

  26. This is spot on:

    brett larris
    @larris16

    Seriously. Do people honestly believe that individuals become billionaires from being nice. To get to that status you have to be ruthless, expect others to be servile to you, greed driven and pay those that make you money less than you spend on food every day.

    brett larris
    @larris16
    When the wealthiest 10% spend millions on boats, houses and other non essential luxuries, like fur coats. It’s obvious that trickle down economics isn’t working. They’re keeping their wealth in their circle of privilege.

    brett larris
    @larris16

    These billionaires placate their egos by being philanthropic and donating to charities of their choice because of course it’s their money. Those who beg the loudest and blow the most amount of smoke up their arse will receive their bread crumbs..

    brett larris
    @larris16

    Those donations are all TAX DEDUCTIBLE. Which reduces their tax burden. Thus reducing potential tax revenue. To pay for public services and support systems, education, medical treatment for all. Is the world we want to live in?

  27. C@t can’t even back up her lies about me. What a bullshit artist! Like the time I supposedly insulted Lizzie but she lied about that too.

  28. Steve777 @ #1563 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 1:35 pm

    Renewables strike again!

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/massive-power-outage-in-sydney-s-eastern-suburbs-leaves-thousands-in-the-dark-20190131-p50urm.html

    Only about 12.6% of NSW energy is from renewables (2017) but it’s that one in eight electrons wot done it! Plus those renewable electrons leaking across from neighboring Labor states.

    I wonder if the Federal Energy Minister (forgotten their name) and Daily Telecrap will loudly condemn the NSW Coalition Government.

    And the thing is, it’s not that hot, with the humidity easing a bit for once. About 30 at 10:00, 36 now. Adelaidians and Melbournians would hardly notice.

    You forgot to add in that the NSW Govt. has just turned on the desalination plant and must run it for at least 14 months under the contract. So, how much power does it consume and is it located near the eastern suburbs?
    (Note: Conspiracy theory alert)

  29. Labor needs to wheel out a whole lot more ‘Junes’.
    .
    NOVEMBER 25, 2018
    June Lunsmann wants people like her to stop whingeing about Labor’s plan to remove cash refunds for excess franking credits.

    Ms Lunsmann, 76, from Birchgrove, says she and her husband run a DIY super fund that claims franking credits.

    The couple stand to lose $29,000 a year from the loss of franking credits under Labor’s policy but she is “quite happy to give them up” because it’s fair.

    “Our super fund isn’t taxed, and we draw out of our super fund and don’t have to pay any tax on it, and that’s really a lot to get,” Ms Lunsmann said.

    “It can’t keep going the way it is, it’s unsustainable. We need that money for infrastructure and other things ………………..The PBO found excess franking credits are mostly claimed by self-managed super funds with millions of dollars in holdings.

    The Lunsmanns set up their fund in 1996.

    “Our early advice was to expect policies to change and don’t gear up your super fund around the existing policies,” Ms Lunsmann said.

    “We were prepared for something like this and haven’t geared our income around the franking credit – they’re a bonus as far as we’re concerned not part of our strategy for retirement.”

    https://outline.com/29Hsvk

    https://outline.com/29Hsvk

  32. SA RC reports:

    The Murray-Darling Basin Royal Commission has found Commonwealth officials committed gross maladministration, negligence and unlawful actions in drawing up the multi-billion-dollar deal to save Australia’s largest river system.

    Royal Commissioner Bret Walker said the authority in charge of the basin plan was “unwilling or incapable of acting lawfully”

    He accused the original architects of the plan of being driven by “politics rather than science”
    Commissioner Bret Walker SC recommended a complete overhaul of the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, including reallocating more water from irrigation to the environment.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-31/murray-darling-basin-plan-ignored-potentially-catastrophic-risks/10766106

  34. sustainable future

    That’s the problem. People always find a way to take advantage.
    Dammit, now I know why I’m not a millionaire. I’m not cunning enough. 🙁

  35. booleanbach,
    The Sydney Desal Plant is at Kurnell. Inner South East:
    21 Sir Joseph Banks Dr, Kurnell NSW 2231

    Adjacent to the Eastern Suburbs. 🙂

  38. lizzie,
    Generally, as it was explained to me the other day, you delete the last part of the image address back to the ?, including the ? Then you put .jpg in its place and it should work here.

  41. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 12:44 pm
    lizzie @ #1512 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 12:14 pm

    I’d love to see the booth counts from the Paddington area for the last federal election.
    Hmm, let me have a guess, the LNP won all of them on Primaries alone?
    ———————————————————
    Paddington in Brisbane is a upper middle class inner city area so the Greens do reasonable well there. Upper middle class trendies like to pretend that they are radical by voting Green.

  43. Zoidlord

    What the officials actually did……………

    Murray-Darling Basin royal commission finds that commonwealth officials committed gross maladministration, negligence and unlawful actions met their political KPIs in drawing up the multi-billion-dollar deal to save Australia’s largest river system.

    https://www.theguardian.com/aust

  45. The lesson for today, boys and girls, is never take your eye off the Russians!

    southpaw
    @nycsouthpaw
    In a new filing in the Internet Research Agency case, Mueller’s team says they’ve found evidence discovery documents were forged as part of a “disinformation campaign aimed (apparently) at discrediting ongoing investigations into Russian interference in the US political system.”

  48. Psyclaw @ #1508 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 11:35 am

    MarkJS

    Good move selecting Sonnen. As you would know it’s a relatively long established mob, and the specs on their batteries are superior to Tesla and others. I guess you are aware of the “Sonnen Community” which I intend to join.

    For those not in the know, the SC is a scheme that allows my battery to be charged on a cloudy, rainy day by the overflow from the panels on another SC member’s roof (in another part of Australia) who is enjoying a sunny day and whose battery is already fully charged.

    Hi Psyclaw..

    ..happy with Sonnen who are big players in Europe. Can’t wait to sign up to the ‘Sonnen Community’ which they have promised to role out in Australia as soon as practicable.. 🙂

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