Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll of the year records an improvement in the Coalition’s position after a particularly bad result in the final poll last year.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 55-45 in the final poll of last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 37%, Labor is down three to 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Scott Morrison leads 43-36 on preferred prime minister, down from 44-36, and is down two on approval to 40% and up two on disapproval to 47%. Bill Shorten’s net rating is reported at minus 13%, compared with minus 15% in the last poll – we will have to wait for later to see his exact approval and disapproval ratings. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1634.

UPDATE: Shorten is up a point on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 50%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,983 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. briefly:

    [‘I’m not a religious bludger and have disagreed with GG about a few things in the past.’]

    ‘Trolls are not to be fed. But though everyone knows this, everyone does it; for the desire to be right on the internet is natural and present to all.’

    Instructive, but poorly understood, even by intelligent, mature contributors.

  2. Sky News AustraliaVerified account@SkyNewsAust
    4h4 hours ago

    Independent candidate for Warringah @zalisteggall: I haven’t been a Labor voter, I’m from a traditional Liberal family.

    ‘I must say I haven’t voted for Tony Abbott’

    MORE: https://bit.ly/2TfqJZO #Speers

    She says she has never voted for Tony Abbott and hasn’t been a Labor voter. So did she vote independent or Greens or some other party the last 24 years?


  3. Lovey says:
    Wednesday, January 30, 2019 at 5:25 pm

    To extrapolate Bowen’s example, then as presently ALL imputed dividends are refunded, then we must infer these companies pay no tax at all.

    If the tax the company pays is given away as tax free income to their shareholders then the tax collected can’t be used for things like education.

    It is quite extraordinary that people like you expect a tax free income and for those that work to pay extra tax to compensate for the loss in revenue. In my view the selfishness is beyond comprehension.

  5. Keane says the energy minister is in witness protection.
    Well if he wasn’t , he probably will be now, from the AFR, sorry no link
    Forward prices for electricity on the wholesale market have climbed back up to levels not seen since late 2017, posing a hurdle for federal energy minister Angus Taylor’s push to cut household power bills.
    Also

    The Victorian baseload futures price for 2020 on the Australian Securities Exchange has surged more than 40 per cent since June 2018 and is now at about $87 a megawatt-hour, though still down on this year’s $117.01/MWh.

    The NSW contract has jumped about 35 per cent since July to about $80/MWh while Queensland is up about 30 per cent.

    Oh and towards the end of the article
    Industry sources say delays in connecting some wind and solar farms and uncertainty over energy and climate policy after the collapse of the National Energy Guarantee policy are also contributing.

  6. John Reidy says:
    Wednesday, January 30, 2019 at 8:59 pm
    Some, probably many of the boomer generation are more worried about their children than themselves, in particular as they, owning their own home and probably do not negative gear, are comfortable and are not threatened by Labor’s proposals.

    Spot on John. Same goes for the capital gains tax and negative gearing changes proposed by Labor as this cash dividends cut for people who pay no income tax per se.

  7. A facebook post from a UK mate..(cant work out how to post the pic)

    This is the view from my bedroom window. Burning gas to grow cucumbers in the UK winter. It’s been running for 24 hours a day since October. The horrible green silo just to the left of the smoke is a coal store. It’s for use if coal gets cheaper than gas. The pylons are relatively new. They will carry the electricity produced by Siemens’ wind turbines in the North Sea. To the left is a large low shed. This is where tens of articulated lorries daily bring cucumbers from growers across the region to be put in plastic sleeves before being shipped to supermarkets. The bank of trees to the right will be greatly diminished this year through felling as many are Elms and Horse Chestnuts affected by disease and parasites that have arrived due to global warming. The deer, foxes, weasels, hares, woodpeckers and owls that we used to see regularly have gone. We have seen buzzards for the first time recently. To the left there is a land based wind turbine. It is on a farm. It’s good for indicating wind direction and speed. I look everyday with a mixture of feeling how lucky I am, optimism and despair.

  11. Greensborough Growler is actually one of the nicest people on PB, even though he can get a little grumpy sometimes, but we know that and we love him for it. His generosity knows no bounds. His wife gives to the community and he gives to the PB community. I hope he stays long and prospers on PB.

    nath is a disgusting, slimy, hateful grub who has a heart the size of a currant and I wish he would piss off from PB because the blog is always better when he isn’t around.

  14. John Reidy

    I just did some math. The seniors, people in their 60s and above, who were wooed by Howard and Costello bribes, are now in their late 70s, at least.

    I knew people of that age back then and they were far different people to the people of that age I know now. I am in my mid 60s, influenced by the Whitlam and Hawke and Keating years and their important reforms .

    Today’s senior voters I suggest are better educated and less likely to be swayed by fear campaigns and yes, we are concerned about what the future holds for our kids and grandkids.

  15. WTH!?!

    Madeleine King
    @MadeleineMHKing

    Disgraceful. Liberal backbenchers handing out Liberal membership forms at a formal meeting of the House Economics Committee. Liberals abusing & denigrating the Parliament. #auspol

    Matt Thistlethwaite
    @MThistlethwaite
    Liberal MP Andrew Wallace just appeared before a House Economics Committee hearing & encouraged members of public about to give evidence to sign up to the Liberal Party. He then handed out forms. An outrageous abuse of the parliamentary committee process.

    Here’s the facebook video of Andrew Wallace, Member for Fisher, touting for LNP memberships:

    https://www.facebook.com/wallace4fisher/videos/vb.148322645565800/1206908256185540/?type=2&theater

  16. I also enjoy GGs contributions which are mostly insightful and constructive. Its just regretable when he gets personal and resorts to nasty name calling. Though he’s certainly not Robinson Crusoe on that score.

  17. briefly
    says:
    Wednesday, January 30, 2019 at 8:50 pm
    nath says:
    Wednesday, January 30, 2019 at 5:56 pm
    Lovey, don’t concern yourself with the Growler. He’s the resident ALP right wing Catholic nutter….
    This is one of the more egregious examples of sectarian phobics seen here for some time. It is as bad as homophobic, sexist or anti-Semitic sledging…. I strongly object to the imputations made by ‘nath’, above, who once again is pimping out sexual innuendo for political/trolling purposes, made worse in this case by the use of religious name-calling.
    ____________________________
    I suppose this is worse than the constant rolling name-calling you engage in against the atheist Greens. Oh that’s political you say, not religious. Well religions are inherently political if you didn’t know, and each religion has political ambitions and engages in politics.

  20. Here’s the facebook video of Andrew Wallace, Member for Fisher, touting for LNP memberships:

    The Trump presidency is the perfect illustration of how a nation’s bedrock institutions can be eroded away in plain sight.

    As Tom Nichols tweeted recently (wtte), you open a door, you must be prepared for others to follow you as you walk through it.

    In essence: where does this end?

  21. Here’s the submission from Cancer Council Queensland to the Inquiry:

    Yeah they politicized themselves for a couple of rich donors to support an LNP partisan farce and election lie. The cancer council in other states needs to start running as fast as they can from the taint partisan scum (I’m going to boycott them and not give them a cent and I will make a point of telling them) running the cancer council of qld should just be given no money by anyone.

  22. WeWantPaul
    says:
    Wednesday, January 30, 2019 at 9:57 pm
    Here’s the submission from Cancer Council Queensland to the Inquiry:
    Yeah they politicized themselves for a couple of rich donors to support an LNP partisan farce and election lie. The cancer council in other states needs to start running as fast as they can from the taint partisan scum (I’m going to boycott them and not give them a cent and I will make a point of telling them) running the cancer council of qld should just be given no money by anyone.
    __________________________________________
    Yes that is a really mentally balanced response to their submission. Call them ‘taint partisan scum’ and boycott their fundraising initiative. The fucking Cancer Council of QLD! The ALP stooges have gone absolutely mental.

  23. Stephen Koukoulas
    ‏Verified account @TheKouk
    14h14 hours ago

    Mr Morrison’s 1.25m jobs promise doesn’t add up:

    Employment Dec 2018: 12.714m

    Add MYEFO jobs forecast to Jun 19
    Add MYEFO forecasts/projections for next 5 yrs less 6 mths to get Dec 2023 figure

    Implied MYEFO employment for Dec 2023: 13.668m

    New jobs = 954,000

    Who’s wrong?

  24. So, if these people who get franking credits donate to charity, so tax deductible, would there be a benefit to them?

    Do they want to help cure cancer or what?

  25. Is there a link to the whole Cancer Council submission?

    Trying not to write them off on the strength of one page of an unknown number of pages submission.

  26. BK, Zoidlord

    I was going to post a link to that story about a collapse of business confidence as well.

    It seems a little ironic that as ScumMo warns of the danger of recession if Labor is elected, the greatest danger of recession would appear to be his reelection. Current economic policy is failing. Low wage growth has led to low retail spending, and soon investment will dry up. Maybe ScumMo knows this and is laying the groundwork for a coalition induced recession during zlsbor’s government, so they can blame Labor for spending to get things moving once again.

  28. And why is Tim Wilson linking to parliamentary submissions on twitter that accord with his own political ideology? I don’t recall MPs in the past doing this as a regular thing, if for no other reason than to uphold the integrity of the submissions process.

    If an organisation thought its submission to a parly inquiry would be randomly tweeted by backbench govt dumbasses, they’d think twice about making a submission in the first place.

  30. It is certainly possible – but not very practical – to charge an electric vehicle using your home solar panels. For example, here are some figures for a Tesla …

    https://news.energysage.com/what-does-it-cost-to-charge-a-tesla-with-solar-energy/

    As we learned above, Barb’s new Tesla Model S has a 33kWh/100 MPGe rating. If we assume she will be driving 25 miles a day, we then know her Tesla is going to be using 8.25 kWh a day (3,011 kWh per year). Then – stay with me here – we can use our prior annual energy production value of 303 kWh/year and determine that Barb will need to add roughly 10 more solar panels to her system in order to completely cover her new Tesla and receive the seal of zero emissions approval from Mr. Musk.

    The next question might be “how much does it cost to charge a Tesla with solar” or in other words, how much extra will Barb need to pay for those 10 panels. If we assume an average price for a standard panel is $185, charging Barb’s brand-new Model S will likely tack on another $2,000 to her solar panel system costs. Compare that to total money spent at the gas pump every year and we start to see why pairing a Tesla with solar panels makes sense. In the long run, Barb will see concrete energy savings on multiple fronts, and will likely break even on her solar panel investment in seven to 10 years.

    However, Sydney commutes are not “25 miles (40km) per day”. I have never had a commute in Sydney that short, and my longest commute was easily double that. Also, most solar systems in Australia do not yet include batteries, so you will probably need to add the cost of that, since you will be mostly be charging your car at night.

    So, you will need to just about double the size of your solar system – i.e. add between 10 and 20 panels, plus add a battery if you don’t already have one – to make it possible to “top up” your car each night. And the payback time would be more like 15+ years.

  32. Electric vehicles burn coal. (Well, at least in Victoria).

    That’s still a Half of the Greenhouse Gasses as burning Fuel

    Electric Car Myth Buster — Well-To-Wheel Emissions

  33. In a very short time roofing material for housing will be entirely solar. The pace of change of technology is beyond comprehension for most people.

  39. It is certainly possible – but not very practical – to charge an electric vehicle using your home solar panels.

    Our workplace has extensive solar panels on the roof and a couple of electric fleet vehicles. We already know that around 80% of our town’s energy needs are met by renewable sources, so I’m wondering whether it is feasible to claim that our electric fleet vehicles are 100% powered by renewable energy? When the cars are plugged in to recharge at work they’d be drawing off the rooftop solar or if not the 80% renewable supply to the grid. Near enough is surely good enough in this context, yes? 😀

  40. Mystery of Bill Shorten’s kitchen: who burnt the stove?
    Bill Shorten in the kitchen making school lunches with a serious burn mark on the wall.

    Caroline Overington
    Associate Editor

    Told ya Bill would have questions to answer.

  42. Confessions @ #1289 Wednesday, January 30th, 2019 – 10:39 pm

    It is certainly possible – but not very practical – to charge an electric vehicle using your home solar panels.

    Our workplace has extensive solar panels on the roof and a couple of electric fleet vehicles. We already know that around 80% of our town’s energy needs are met by renewable sources, so I’m wondering whether it is feasible to claim that our electric fleet vehicles are 100% powered by renewable energy? When the cars are plugged in to recharge at work they’d be drawing off the rooftop solar or if not the 80% renewable supply to the grid. Near enough is surely good enough in this context, yes? 😀

    You can surely then claim your fleet is being recharged by your solar panels … but unless you double your number of solar panels, then all this means is that your other energy needs – currently being met by those same panels – will have to be met by other means … possibly including burning more coal.

    TANSTAAFL 🙁

  43. Zoidlord @ #1272 Wednesday, January 30th, 2019 – 10:09 pm

    Stephen Koukoulas
    ‏Verified account @TheKouk
    14h14 hours ago

    Mr Morrison’s 1.25m jobs promise doesn’t add up:

    Employment Dec 2018: 12.714m

    Add MYEFO jobs forecast to Jun 19
    Add MYEFO forecasts/projections for next 5 yrs less 6 mths to get Dec 2023 figure

    Implied MYEFO employment for Dec 2023: 13.668m

    New jobs = 954,000

    Who’s wrong?

    Looks like ScaMo took Tony Abbott’s 1 million jobs boast and added a little bit to make it betterer.

  44. The scorch mark in detail:

    Ask anyone in marketing: there is nothing accidental about this shot. You are supposed to notice that burn mark, and you are supposed to comment on it, laugh about it, crack a joke in its direction.
    Why?
    Because it speaks of the madness of modern family life.
    The Shortens, like you, have kids. They’re busy, and occasionally, they drop the ball.
    No biggie!
    Also, his isn’t the kind of family that sweats the small stuff. So a pot caught fire in their kitchen? Hey, that’s bad luck, and no doubt there was panic and maybe tears, but at the end of the day, no-one died.
    How lucky is that?
    Also, they’re not posh. They — Mrs Shorten, who is the daughter of the former governor-general, Dame Quentin Bryce; and her husband, who is the likely future PM — are not pretentious.
    They’re just like you, and your family.
    Maybe one day they’ll get around to fixing hat scorch mark up. In the meantime, it’s a fun family story: “Remember the time so-and-so nearly burnt the house down?!”
    Make no mistake: this photo, which went up on Bill’s Twitter page this morning, is pretending to be just one of those good old “back to school” snaps on everyone’s Facebook feed this morning, but it’s styled within an inch of its life.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/mystery-of-bill-shortens-kitchen-who-burnt-the-stove/news-story/6a32d29f4b7874df5e38b270a680588c

  46. Fozzie

    I don’t know if it’s still true – technology might have caught up a bit – but a few years ago running an EV in Victoria resulted in a rise of emissions – the amount of coal needed to produce the electricity to run an EV created more emissions than an equivalent car run on petrol.

    The point of that is not that EVs are bad, but that burning brown coal to produce electricity is truly awful.

  48. Confessions @ #1289 Wednesday, January 30th, 2019 – 9:39 pm

    It is certainly possible – but not very practical – to charge an electric vehicle using your home solar panels.

    Our workplace has extensive solar panels on the roof and a couple of electric fleet vehicles. We already know that around 80% of our town’s energy needs are met by renewable sources, so I’m wondering whether it is feasible to claim that our electric fleet vehicles are 100% powered by renewable energy? When the cars are plugged in to recharge at work they’d be drawing off the rooftop solar or if not the 80% renewable supply to the grid. Near enough is surely good enough in this context, yes? 😀

    The problem with this scenario is that any solar generated electricity used to charge an electric car is displacing the petroleum fuel which would otherwise be used by a car but is not then available to displace coal generated electricity. Modern cars are much more efficient machines than coal fired power stations. So you would be displacing the more efficient machines and not the less efficient machines. Also the more renewable energy available to compete with coal generated electricity, the quicker the economics drive coal out of the electricity market.

  49. That burn mark is where Bill fought off the Austerity Monster who had come to scoop up half of every sandwich made for the kids. Luckily Bill had his ALP Power Beam on hand. The Austerity Monster was consumed with rage when Bill Shorten protected the sandwiches from the greedy hand of the Austerity Monster. This rage burnt off it’s disguise, revealing a conjoined Tony Abbott/Sophie Miribella creature. It had two heads, half a brain, two arms and four legs. Bill scorched the creature to ashes by holding up a mirror to its faces.

    Sandwiches safe, kids happy, Bill triumphant and nothing left but a stain on the wall.

  50. Fozzie

    The money line from the article you linked to:

    ‘EVs are powered by electricity, which is generally a cleaner energy source than gasoline…’

    Generally. You note I was very specific. I talked about EVs in Victoria, and brown coal. Brown coal is not a cleaner energy source than gasoline. The coal fired stations referred to in the (American) article would be fired by black coal.

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