BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

BludgerTrack returns from hibernation, albeit with only one new poll result to play with.

The return of Essential Research provided the BludgerTrack mill with its first grist for the new year, but the model is at its least robust when it only has one data point to play with after a long gap. This means BludgerTrack strongly follows the lead of a poll that was less bad for the Coalition than their usual form, resulting in a substantial reduction in Labor’s still commanding lead on two-party preferred. Labor is also down six on the seat projection – one in each mainland state and two in Queensland. The Essential poll also included a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and these produced a weak result for Bill Shorten that has blunted his recent improving trend. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,129 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. Bennelong Lurker @ #2641 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 2:00 pm

    ItzaDream,

    Nearly right. Wikipedia says Wilcannia was the third largest inland port in the country during the great riverboat era of the 19th Century.
    Interestingly, (or not!), my late husband’s grandmother was governess in Wilcannia to Resch’s children in the late 19th C.

    Wow, Thanks B L. Fancy that about the governess. And to think the Resch money ended up in St Vincent’s Private (Sydney). There must be some stories. I found Wilcannia strangely moving. The river incredibly wide, and proud with river gums, so stately. And the detritus of white man’s coming no more apparent than in the complete mess the indigenous people were/ are in.

  3. “The government has announced $6.7 million for a 39-stop circumnavigation of Australia in 2020 by a replica of James Cook’s Endeavour.”

    They should let outback residents see it too – perhaps add wheels and drive it along the dry bed of the Darling (courtesy of the irrigators and their LNP mates).

  4. I think I can safely make two predictions of parts of the original Endeavour voyage which will NOT feature in this pseudo-reenactment:

    1. Cook’s crew firing upon and wounding aboriginals after landing at Botany Bay.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/captain-cook-shot-my-grandpa-great-great-great-great-great-great-great/news-story/49ec3ef96dbf6e1a8f7662f02b3162b5

    2. Cook sailing the Endeavour straight past what we now call Sydney Harbour (he didn’t realise there was an inlet there). I’m sure it will be all bells and whistles etc etc for the “recreation” of the Endeavour approaching the Harbour Bridge and docking near the Opera House.

  7. Pegasus @ #2018 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 2:39 pm

    Another version of events:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-21/native-american-surrounded-maga-trump-supporters-what-happened/10730988

    A pity the Native American who was actually there doesn’t back up their revisionist “we’re crusaders against racism and hate” nonsense.

    CNN: Were [the students] being hateful, just bottom line? Did you feel hate from this group of people? Did it feel like they were being aggressive?

    Phillips: I do believe that’s all I could feel, and I don’t like feeling it. … Fear, not for myself but for the next generations, fear where this country’s going, fear for those youths, fear for their future, fear for their souls, their spirit, what they’re going to do to this country.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/21/us/nathan-phillips-maga-teens-interview/index.html

    He correctly identifies that the hate and racism was coming from the crowd of young racists wearing “I’m a racist” caps and doing/shouting racist things. Who would have thought? I mean, except for everyone with half a functioning brain. 🙂

  9. Ever been to Louth? It’s wonderful, a tiny paddle steamer whistle stop. The one pub is called Shindy’s Inn. The school kids wrote a book called ‘We Live Here’, the affection for county palpable.

    You don’t build bridges like this for nothing. The river was big. Show us your legacy Morrison.

  12. a r

    I understand you can not read my mind. I posted the link to provide another perspective / fodder for the usual raging speculation, etc that often dominates this blog.

    Looks like you are way behind reading posts. Thank you for your special attention to one of mine.

  13. It’s too hot outside, too darn hot. I holed up wth a fan, and two dogs. One took off yesterday and was gone for 4 hours. She came back a bit messed up, panting and wet, with a leach between her toes which she happily let me pull out with tweezers. She normally doesn’t like you doing things to her toes or nails. But today she’s close. Too darn hot outside.

    Sorry if I’m driving you nuts. Off to make a cuppa tho.

  15. Australians are likely to vote within the next three years on whether Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples should have a First Nations Voice to Parliament, as proposed in the Uluru Statement from the Heart.

    This is more important than having opinions on the Australia Day date (which I am happy to change BTW). Have a platform from which Aboriginal issues can be prioritised and projected.

    The same goes for issues like bias in the AFP (not to mention putting Australians in peril overseas). Rather than take on the AFP directly, make observance of their charter fall within the purview of an oversight body like a federal ICAC.

    Media laws are a bit harder. And the ABC obviously needs work.

    The ALP have also promised movement on the Republic.

    There are just so many things that need work, the idea that the ALP are “craven” for not wanting to fight every thought bubble of a dying government is a nonsense.

  16. TPOF

    with the Greens as upmarket passengers complaining endlessly about the poor views and the slow speed, but with no idea of what is involved.

    Perhaps that is an incorrect characterisation.

    To soothe your puzzlement, I really need to acknowledge your superior intellect, if that makes you happier.

  17. caf: “Rex, that makes no sense. He said he’s switched because he doesn’t agree with the policy direction of the ALP. If he believed that the parties were essentially the same on policy, there’d be no point in changing, and in particular to change to the side that’s on a downward slide?”

    And that logic only makes sense if you accept Mundine’s word that it was some principled decision about policy. Which is frankly pretty generous. Far more likely, he switched because of unprincipled ambition – since the labor party snubbed his senate bid in favour of Bob Carr – which is the same year, incidentally that he left. Coincidence? I think not.

    I’d say Rex is pretty close to the mark.

  18. Itza

    Louth, a place that loved a drink, a party and a punt, wrote Henry
    Lawson.
    Even living in WA I have long been interested in the Darling and Murray rivers.
    First it was the history of early exploration. Everybody remembers Burke and Wills but Sturt is a favourite.
    then in recent years the story of how the environment was being destroyed has saddened me.
    A Darling River “run” would be on my list of outback adventures, but not in the current situation.

  19. ItzaDream,

    My husband and I took the children out to Wilcannia and Broken Hill in the early 1980s to let them sense a little of the family background. You are right about the absolute grandeur of the river (at that time- obviously not at the moment!).
    The governess later married one of the publicans in Wilcannia (possibly bank rolled by Resch?). As a sideline he used to breed horses which were taken to Adelaide and shipped to India for the British army.
    One of the daughters of the governess, (my MIL), was a nursing sister who was on duty at the Broken Hill Hospital the day the wounded were brought in after the “Battle for Broken Hill”on January 1, 1915.

  20. MS

    I am not a romantic or a sentimentalist.

    As someone who does not believe in ‘love at first sight’ (now, that’s a deluded concept) but believe in the need to never take a relationship for granted, I have been with my OH for over 35 years.

    True love.

  21. sprocket_ @ #2587 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 9:12 am

    Cook’s voyages. Maybe someone should tell Scotty, no circumnavigation….

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Well he did circumnavigate the globe in the first one and if you combine the first and second ones he has circumnavigated Australia.

    It’s just that most of the time he couldn’t see it! 😆

  22. Morrison is desperately trying to rope-a-dope Shorten into getting into a stoush where he can bellow “See, Shorten is anti-Australian!”

    Shorten is refusing to bite. Like he has done on Adani and Australia Day.

    While some Greens and others want to see a stoush, Shorten, I think, wants to restore some trust in politicians and institutions … so he is not going to have knee-jerk reaction type arguments which only polarise the public.

    In essence, he is calling for calm, rational discussion rather than the heated finger-pointing that gets the Libs and the media all excited. He is going with NOT dividing Aussies.

    Further attributing intention on Shorten’s motives prior to the election, I’d suggest, is projection from those who have dearly-held single-issue beliefs/policy desires which they desperately want addressed. But until after the election, Shorten is not going to give strong responses because doing so will only serve to disrupt momentum by getting some vocal sections off side.

    ALP has successfully prosecuted the most contentious policies already. There’ll be no shocks now – just steady, positive policy.

  24. Big A A

    Far more likely, he switched because of unprincipled ambition – since the labor party snubbed his senate bid in favour of Bob Carr – which is the same year, incidentally that he left. Coincidence? I think not.

    Indeed. The same point I made earlier.

  25. Peg

    To soothe your puzzlement, I really need to acknowledge your superior intellect, if that makes you happier

    _______________________________________

    How can I ever be happy when I know that my moral and ideological purity is a soiled thing compared to the beautiful white horse that is, alas, a myth?

  29. Rossmcg,

    My father was in Wentworth for three years during the latter part of the 1930s and I have some (very faded) photos he took of the Darling and Murray rivers at that time. Probably count as historical relics now. Absolutely amazing. Also have some photos of the massive cattle teams of those days hauling drays piled high with wool bales.

  30. jen,

    Nice post and neatly sums up Shorten’s approach to develop good public policy and the importance of a strong united team to advocate for those policies.

  32. TPOF
    says:
    Tuesday, January 22, 2019 at 1:56 pm
    While that course may not be along the direct path and at the speed that Greens supporters want, it is Labor steering and powering the ship, with the Greens as upmarket passengers complaining endlessly about the poor views and the slow speed, but with no idea of what is involved.

    Which fits neatly with certain posters armchair critic views of what makes “good fiction.” They clearly have no idea what’s involved, but are very happy to judge.

  37. There are indicators, as I have already mentioned, that ordinary citizens are weary of the business as usual approach to major party adversarial politics that does not prosecute a holistic and long-term vision for the betterment of our society.

    Before every election, it’s always the same political dance.

    Negative smears, ‘dirty unit’ campaigns

    Promises, promises, promises.

    Pork-barreling, port-barreling, pork-barreling

    with its focus on the minority of swinging voters in a minority of electorates, usually marginal.

    Trust in politicians has been completely degraded. Time for it to be restored.

    One outcome I do not want is a Labor government with a majority in both houses.

    It’s not good for democracy, or for representative democracy.

  39. And just on this idea that Warren Mundine tested well in polling in Gilmore.

    Bullshit.

    Somewhere north of 90% of population of Gilmore would have no more heard of Warren Mundine than of Kaila Murnain.

    Tragics like us have heard of him, but if you’d asked most people in Nowra what they thought of Warren Mundine they would have said it was great how that other boxer, you know the one, from Brisbane that beat Pacquiao, how that guy knocked him out in the first round and how he should now just piss off and stop embarrassing himself.

  40. Mr Morrison said the anniversary would give new generations an insight into Capt. Cook, his ship, and the experiences of Indigenous Australians.

    Did Cook or his crew shoot at any of the local inhabitants on his voyages?

    If so, is Morrison planning to re-enact this aspect as part of “the experiences of Indigenous Australians”?

  42. Bennelong Lurker @ #2669 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 2:32 pm

    ItzaDream,

    My husband and I took the children out to Wilcannia and Broken Hill in the early 1980s to let them sense a little of the family background. You are right about the absolute grandeur of the river (at that time- obviously not at the moment!).
    The governess later married one of the publicans in Wilcannia (possibly bank rolled by Resch?). As a sideline he used to breed horses which were taken to Adelaide and shipped to India for the British army.
    One of the daughters of the governess, (my MIL), was a nursing sister who was on duty at the Broken Hill Hospital the day the wounded were brought in after the “Battle for Broken Hill”on January 1, 1915.

    Wow again. I had a cousin, living in Bourke, and surveying with the Western Lands Dept, who married a Wilcannia girl, perhaps the right thing to do at the time. It was sorry tale of parental (my favourite aunt) interference, and an unhappy marriage cut short by his very premature death from cancer.

    To my shame, the Battle for Broken Hill was completely unknown to me. (I’ve been there a couple of times, overnighting on the way through.) What an incredible story.

    I really commend it if youse bludgers don’t know it -it’s got the lot. You seriously couldn’t make this up. No spoilers; it’s a must read. Well, except the bit about the man who didn’t listen to his daughter and went chopping wood on Jan 1st when the temperature must have been off the scale. And there’s a mention of a Lt Resch. And …. ‘fake news’.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Broken_Hill

  43. Peg, I’m glad you’re happy. I was introduced to Cartland via my former partner, who died twenty years ago. She was a genuine romantic, watching and recording episodes of “Days of our Lives”, and other soaps. I think she was attempting to tell me something.

  44. Barney in Go Dau @ #5668 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 2:55 pm

    First Dog calls for the election, now!

    It will be extremely funny to see the Coalition lose in a massive Billslide

    I wonder if “Billslide” will catch on.

    I’m sure nath will love it! 😆

    https://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2019/jan/22/the-government-is-literally-doing-nothing-call-the-election-now-scott-donald-barnevelder-morrison

    #Snittyspeaksforme! Also – I note the (increasing) resemblance to Our Lord And Master (aka WB). Psephological Cassowaries Rule!

  48. Bennelong Lurker @ #2679 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 2:41 pm

    Rossmcg,

    My father was in Wentworth for three years during the latter part of the 1930s and I have some (very faded) photos he took of the Darling and Murray rivers at that time. Probably count as historical relics now. Absolutely amazing. Also have some photos of the massive cattle teams of those days hauling drays piled high with wool bales.

    When I went looking for photos, MAAS Ultimo kept coming up. They might be interested.

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