BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

BludgerTrack returns from hibernation, albeit with only one new poll result to play with.

The return of Essential Research provided the BludgerTrack mill with its first grist for the new year, but the model is at its least robust when it only has one data point to play with after a long gap. This means BludgerTrack strongly follows the lead of a poll that was less bad for the Coalition than their usual form, resulting in a substantial reduction in Labor’s still commanding lead on two-party preferred. Labor is also down six on the seat projection – one in each mainland state and two in Queensland. The Essential poll also included a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and these produced a weak result for Bill Shorten that has blunted his recent improving trend. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,129 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. Barney in Go Dau
    Tuesday, January 22, 2019 at 2:55 pm
    First Dog calls for the election, now!
    It will be extremely funny to see the Coalition lose in a massive Billslide
    I wonder if “Billslide” will catch on.
    I’m sure nath will love it!

  2. Mavis Smith says:
    Tuesday, January 22, 2019 at 3:03 pm
    Peg, I’m glad you’re happy. I was introduced to Cartland via my former partner, who died twenty years ago. She was a genuine romantic, watching and recording episodes of “Days of our Lives”, and other soaps. I think she was attempting to tell me something.

    I have never read a Cartland book but I may some day. I have no time for the Stalinists of literary taste. A good book is one that the reader enjoys. How anyone can be arrogant enough to think they can decide what should be read and what should not is beyond me. That principle applies to many things. A good wine is on that you enjoy at the time you drink it. Far more of the best meals I have eaten have been cooked by home cooks than by 3 hat chefs. I have no time for the rubbish served up as food by the plate decorators in expensive restaurants. Food is for eating not decorating plates.

  3. One common theme of Cartland’s books was the young, pure, virginal beauty ‘saving’ the older dashing nobleman from the clutches of his heartless mistress.

    Princess Diana was Cartland’s step granddaughter and read her books.

    If she hadn’t, she might have had a more realistic idea of what she was in for when she married Charles.

  4. Grog gets the comedy gold medal for comment of the day:

    Greg Jericho
    Greg Jericho

    At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if Morrison announced he was going to knight Cook


  5. PS

    I don’t think anyone was being a literary stalinist. I just agreed with J to reinforce our earlier conversation in which I said everyone has something in common.

    Would you like to explore what we have in common?

  6. Itza,

    Marie Kondo is going to strike me soon, so I must get organised and sort out a lot of this stuff. (My kids keep referring to my ever advancing years and their dread at what is currently accumulated in unsorted boxes). Had thought of sending the photos to the Wentworth Library, hadn’t thought of the MAAS. Thanks.

  7. zoomster, you said you read Josephine Tey, I’ve read The Daughter of Time and it was very interesting although she didn’t convince me of her argument.

  8. C@tmomma @ #2699 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 3:09 pm

    ItzaDream @ #2695 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 3:05 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2673 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 2:34 pm

    Are you down in the country now?

    Yes C@t, but not for long if this keeps up.

    You can be NSW’s first Climate Change refugee. 😆

    It’s a bit weird. It’s hot and humid, this pocket of hot air just sitting, unlike the hot dry bushfire summers driven by westerlies. It’s very still; nothing is moving. There’s no animal movement, no birds, no snakes, nothing. There’s only a mob of yellow tailed black cockatoo in the late evening eating Hakeas, of which there are heaps, otherwise it’s just very very still. But I’ll go up to town to the OH tomorrow, and I’ve started yoga for stiff and creakiness at the Kings X community centre, which is a hoot, and give the dogs a good run etc. You out there in the early mornings makes me feel a bit of a slacker.

  9. C@tmomma
    Tuesday, January 22, 2019 at 3:25 pm
    steve davis @ #2704 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 3:16 pm
    Stalker arrives.
    And he probably thought his latest effort to humiliate Bill would be a killer! It’s actually quite a positive sentiment. The more Bills the better!
    Nah. that was a benign effort. I actually love the movie Grease and that meme amused me. But think what you like, you’re so often wrong it is funny. Especially about my clown career! 🙂

  10. GG

    The Irish folk band The Fureys resonate with me, as do Joan Armatrading, Carole King, James Taylor, Pete Seeger, Tracy Chapman. That’s just a smattering…

  11. nath

    That one’s a bit of an outlier for her, but an excellent novel, all the same – I once used it to introduce history to a Year 7 class.

  12. BIDG “Well he obviously thinks there is a difference.”

    Indeed he does – the difference being the liberals offered him a pathway into parliament while labor snubbed him.

  13. Bennelong Lurker @ #2714 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 3:27 pm


    Marie Kondo is going to strike me soon, so I must get organised and sort out a lot of this stuff. (My kids keep referring to my ever advancing years and their dread at what is currently accumulated in unsorted boxes). Had thought of sending the photos to the Wentworth Library, hadn’t thought of the MAAS. Thanks.

    Now I know who Marie Kondo is. You are a fountain.

  14. zoomster
    Tuesday, January 22, 2019 at 3:32 pm
    That one’s a bit of an outlier for her, but an excellent novel, all the same – I once used it to introduce history to a Year 7 class.
    Did you ever teach in Melbourne, and at what schools?

  15. Bennelong Lurker

    I have been that way a bit, to Broken Hill and Menindee and Wentworth and seen the shearing shed at Kinchega.
    The knowledge there was once a a thriving trade on a river successive generations have reduced to little more than a smelly drain makes me very sad.

  16. zoomster
    Tuesday, January 22, 2019 at 3:37 pm
    Mount Eliza.
    Thanks, for a second then I thought you might have been the teacher that gave me a copy of The Daughter of Time when I was in year 7!

  17. Itza,
    I have recently read that yoga is the best type of exercise for the old and creaky, beyond Tai Chi, that is. But who wants to go down to the local park in the morning and look like you are directing the traffic? 🙂

  18. Well Cook might not have circumnavigated Australia but he certainly determined that it was an island and therefore circumnavigable!

  19. nath

    I didn’t give them the book, I used some of the information from it. In pre internet days, it was often hard to source material. I didn’t push either side, just gave them the evidence and let them decide who they thought was the villain. It was an interesting exercise.

  20. ScoMo today called Warren Mundine “a top bloke”. …

    Hasn’t Warren suffered enough? Hmmm. … No. No, he hasn’t.


    January 22 2019 – 2:13PM
    PM’s Gilmore intervention not welcomed by local Liberals
    Rebecca Fist, John Hanscombe

    South Coast state MP Shelley Hancock is appalled by Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s captain’s call to parachute former ALP president Warren Mundine into Gilmore to contest the upcoming federal election.

    “I suspect there will be branch members who will turn their backs on the party,” she said.

  22. Josephine Tey’s Daughter of Time was also a good read for me. Tey wrote a novel about what had already been unearthed in many historical works, that Richard III had been villified by the Tudors who arguably usurped the English throne and like all such players, sought to justify it through state-sponsored propaganda. William Shakespeare did no small service to the reigning Tudors in his play about the man.
    While there is still some doubt about Richard’s innocence over the disappearance of the little princes in the Tower of London, some of the more egregious charges against him have been dismissed by most historians. Most agree that he was the legitimate heir to the throne and that his opponent, Richmond, who became Henry VII, was by far a more brutal individual, working to kill off around 60 members of Richard’s surviving family, just to secure his place on the throne.
    This does not take away from Henry’s granddaughter, Elizabeth I of England, who was arguably her country’s greatest monarch. But this should not obscure how the Tudors got there.

  23. ‘Mrs Hancock said she couldn’t understand the choice of Warren Mundine over locally preselected candidate Grant Schultz.

    “Only recently Scott Morrison was talking about the importance of grassroots processes when preselecting candidates.’

    ‘…“I’m absolutely fuming and disgusted,” said one long-term active party member who had backed Mr Schultz.

    “[Warren Mundine] is not a party member, not a member of Gilmore, doesn’t live in Gilmore, doesn’t have anything to do with local people in Gilmore.”

    The member said they would not be supporting Mr Mundine’s campaign.

    “The thing that concerns me is that Grant has been totally ignored by the people at the top. If they were going to intervene, they should have done it the day after the endorsement meeting.”

    A senior local party member said the PM’s decision was disappointing. “It flies in the face of democracy,” they said.

    “The fact [Mundine] is not part of the community concerns me.”’

    ‘..another local branch member joined the chorus of those sympathising with Mr Schultz.

    “I think the Liberal Party can kiss the seat goodbye,” they said.

    “Liberals here won’t be walking away from the cause, they will be walking away from despicable behaviour of Scott Morrison and the people working for him.’

    Honestly, Scotty has a sort of reverse Midas touch…

  24. “The greatest beneficiary from this will be Dr Fiona Kotvojs, who’s running in Eden-Monaro, a number of people have said they want to go down and help a true local Liberal get elected.”

    Good luck with unseating Dr Mike Kelly, guys! 😆

  25. The whole thesis that Henry VII killed the Princes lacks credibility considering the boys’ sister married him and from historical sources was happy with him.

  26. As clusterfucking brainfarts from a PM go I rank this one up there with declaring Super Saturday a head to head contest.

    Stupider than proposing to move the Jerusalem embassy.

  27. Mike Carlton
    29m29 minutes ago

    SloMo’s idea of prime ministership is to run it as a series of Murdochracy front pages. No policy, just “announcements” and photo ops. Oz day dress code ! Captain Cook voyage ! Me at the tennis ! Union crackdown! Shorten to blame ! He is the fuckwit’s fuckwit.

  28. Itza,

    Not sure about the “fountain”. A little dribble as a partial repayment for the recent link to the ACO’s Beethoven 5th, perhaps. That was superb.


    Haven’t been out that way since the 1980s. The first pub anyone in the family owned was a shanty on what is now Tongo station.

    I hasten to add that any “fortune”that might have rested in the 19th and early 20th C. pubs was well dissipated before I met my husband!

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