BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

BludgerTrack returns from hibernation, albeit with only one new poll result to play with.

The return of Essential Research provided the BludgerTrack mill with its first grist for the new year, but the model is at its least robust when it only has one data point to play with after a long gap. This means BludgerTrack strongly follows the lead of a poll that was less bad for the Coalition than their usual form, resulting in a substantial reduction in Labor’s still commanding lead on two-party preferred. Labor is also down six on the seat projection – one in each mainland state and two in Queensland. The Essential poll also included a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and these produced a weak result for Bill Shorten that has blunted his recent improving trend. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,129 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. I am absolutely mortified K thinks I am so intellectually inferior to him! But he’s not alone here in sharing that opinion.

    You really are so sweet in singling me out for your attention but, sadly, I have no intention to feed your obviously healthy ego.

  2. BreakfastNews
    1h1 hour ago
    More
    “The Coalition has done more to progress the causes of women in the last five years than, I think, any government in the last 40,” says Liberal Senator..

    In one word this is bullshit.

    The single most effective measure for women was compulsory superannuation introduced by Keating in 1992 & oppos#d by the coalition.

    Please sell that ABC ASAP or at least employ a new generation of journalists with integrity.

  3. The Turnbull and Morrison Governments have done a very good job of running this great country of ours and Scott Morrison will retain government in November this years as the Australian public will not be able to trust bill Shorten as he will run this great country of ours into the ground and we will be back in debt in no time and also the people smugglers will be back in business conning people into getting into boats and even I don’t trust the ALP……

  4. Actually, Bill was the instigator & promoter of the NDIS – he sincerely helped more people than KO’D, TA, MT and SM combined

  5. lizzie @ #1967 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 2:21 pm

    KayJay

    I guessed that you were talking about the girl.
    I seems that the “edit function” forces such a delay in taking down one pic and substituting another that eager beaver PB watchers such as yourself have time to notice the change.

    The problem is also in Twitter, which since Christmas has reacted so slowly to clicks that it frequently picks up the previous image or message. Sooo frustrating. I’m not sure who to blame, Trump or the Greens. Someone without a sense of humour, anyway. :kiss:

    Thanks Lizzie
    and
    Thanks Don

    My very dear Uncle Geoff (since gone to heaven) was the last of 16 siblings and told me once that he (Geoff) was the fool of the family). As the now eldest of family I have inherited the title.

    Since the picture appearing/disappearing I had thought that the above news had percolated into the corridors of power and that the mysterious but omnipotent William was determined to conduct experiments on his flock.

    Then comes the news that Mr. Chris Kenny had secured a position with Sky News which will surely be a delight to me should he no longer commit his atrocities at The Australian.

    I now, with complete assurance from Abby that while I may be confused, possibly demented, my short term memory functions quite well
    and
    I should stick with the Creaming Soda rather than Pee No More even though in my decrepit state a 2 A.M. sojourn may be necessary.

    💋 also.

    I still have no idea who the girl with red hair is. Rearrange for syntax please.

  6. Pegasus

    “I am absolutely mortified K thinks I am so intellectually inferior to him! But he’s not alone here in sharing that opinion.”

    That’s fact, not opinion.

  7. BK
    says:
    Monday, January 21, 2019 at 3:23 pm
    Gee this place loses its shine some days!
    Kate
    says:
    Monday, January 21, 2019 at 3:14 pm
    PB’s a quick read with the trolling Greens out in force…….
    ________________________________
    I know! How much money do you have to donate to PB before you can set the political discourse?!?!

  8. No wage stagnation for the super rich!

    Some incredible statistics in that report, including:

    Oxfam’s report found that in the 10 years since the global financial crisis, the number of billionaires around the world has nearly doubled.

    The wealth of the world’s billionaires increased by $900 billion in the past year alone, or $2.5 billion a day.

    To put that in context, a new billionaire was created every two days between 2017 and 2018. According to Forbes there were 2,208 billionaires as at March 2018 — and nine out of 10 billionaires are men.

    Increasingly, ordinary citizens are questioning the political and economic status quo that has enabled the rise and rise of the super rich.

  9. K

    Your arrogance is showing.

    Though, perhaps you are not as intellectually superior as you think. You don’t seem to be able to discern the difference between an opinion and a fact.

  10. As referred to before, the single most economically “progressive” medical action the ALP can take is to remove the public subsidy to the parastic private health insurance industry. It is a subsidy to the rich and is a subsidy to the major enemies of social health.

    The $11 billion annual subsidy should be put into the health system not into the profits of this trojan horse against equal access to quality health.

    Labor should do this early in its term. By the time the next election is due Howards PHI parasite will be a much smaller beast and less of a political threat.

    http://johnmenadue.com/john-menadue-private-health-insurance-is-a-con-job-is-labor-being-conned-again/

  11. don @ #22586 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 12:45 pm

    rhwombat @ #1916 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 11:56 am

    15 years later I spent days in August (The month in which Scotland’s official Summer’s day usually occurs) in the Glenbrittle YHA waiting for the weather to lift enough to climb in the Cuillins. By day 3 we set out in the drech and climbed a dismal 3 pitches in sleet before bailing. Trudging back down we passed 2 natives out for a stroll: “Och, lovely day” one said, “Nae snow…”. Scots climbers make the rest of us feel sane.

    I seem to remember you’ve done some serious climbing in NZ – I walked nearly all the parks in the south island a while ago, and at one point was amazed to see kiwi walkers (climbers?) coming out of a rocky valley with crash helmets on!

    And here is the closest I got to Aoraki, from Mueller’s Hut:

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Great photo Don.

    I’ve never been up to Mueller’s hut, but I have stood on the high peak of Aoraki and on Hicks (which is the big face to the left of Aoraki in your photo).

    The South face of Hicks was the site where they shot a short film about climbing in Cook in the 70s (called Fool on a Hill). One of the scenes involved simulating a 300m fall into the bergschrund at the base of the face – using a dummy dressed as the lead climber. A decade later some climbers reported a body in the ‘schrund – which, on recovery, turned out to be the dummy. Wasn’t a particularly good film either. If you really want to know what climbing was like in the wild days, I recommend the film of Touching the Void (or any of Joe Simpsons other books, like This Game of Ghosts) or Jen Peedon’s film Sherpa.

  12. Another version of events:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-21/native-american-surrounded-maga-trump-supporters-what-happened/10730988

    A video picked up by media at the weekend showing young male students wearing Make America Great Again (MAGA) caps surrounding and drowning out a Native American elder does not reveal the whole picture.

    Social media lit up when footage circulated online of the confrontation at a rally at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington.

  13. Pegasus

    Earlier today I posted the full video taken by the Black Hebrews who were heckling the students (and everyone else), 1.45 hours long. Watch the start to see them ‘debating’ the odds with the native Americans and then go to the 1 hr 12 min mark to see what happened. It looks very different to what has been shown and claimed.

  14. Why is it that Scotty is so un-photogenic? Here he looks like he is a try hard who has to get the most out of an 8 minute ‘pull aside’ with Dotard…

  15. Conservative commentator wonders Trump wants a meeting with Kim Jong Un as a distraction

    Conservative Washington Post commentator Max Boot wondered if the White House forgot about the goal of denuclearization with North Korea.

    In a panel discussion with CNN, Max Boot noted that Trump lost his leverage with Kim by allowing another summit without any pre-conditions.

    “The president gave Kim all the leverage because he was getting the advantage of standing side by side with the most powerful man in the world,” Boot explained Sunday. “And the American side didn’t really get much out of Kim, apart from an undertaking to move toward denuclearization. And the time has passed since that summit, we’ve seen very little movement toward permanent denuclearization.”

    In fact, Boot explained that the opposite is the case. U.S. intelligence agencies have found that missiles and the nuclear program continues in North Korea. So, clearly, whatever the president and Secretary Mike Pompeo have done isn’t working.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/conservative-commentator-wonders-trump-wants-meeting-kim-jong-un-distraction/

  16. BK wrote:

    “Gee this place loses its shine some days!”

    The delusion gripping Nath, Rex Douglas, Pegasus et al which convinces them they are taking the fight to Labor is almost as strong as the delusion among their gullible targets that their trolling is paid for by Menzies House, or (even more bizarre a delusion) that Labor apparatchiks come here to pick up strategy ideas.

  17. Bushfire Bill @ #2021 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 4:12 pm

    BK wrote:

    “Gee this place loses its shine some days!”

    The delusion gripping Nath, Rex Douglas, Pegasus et al which convinces them they are taking the fight to Labor is almost as strong as the delusion among their gullible targets that their trolling is paid for by Menzies House, or (even more bizarre a delusion) that Labor apparatchiks come here to pick up strategy ideas.

    Why is anything critical of Shorten/Labor described as ‘trolling’ ?

  18. Rex Douglas @ #2028 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 4:19 pm

    Why is anything critical of Shorten/Labor described as ‘trolling’ ?

    It isn’t. I am quite critical of various Labor policies and politicians, and don’t (often) get accused of trolling.

    Perhaps you should instead be asking why certain posters here get accused of trolling so often.

  19. nath says:
    Monday, January 21, 2019 at 3:07 pm
    Steve Davis showing his naiveté in imagining that Bill Shorten cares for anything except Bill Shorten.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    Nath and another well-known poster remind me so much of the no-nothing anti-Whitlam haters before Whitlam led Labor to government in 1972.
    “Don’t trust Whitlam; you don’t know Whitlam,” was a refrain I heard from some in the left of the Victorian ALP, sad to say, who, I think, did not really want Labor to win. There was no Greens party in those days so I guess there was nowhere else for them to go.
    But they preferred the luxury of opposition, where they and like-minds could dream about the glorious revolution to come, without actually doing anything.
    Like Nath ignoring Shorten’s achievements on the NDIS, they ignored Whitlam’s policies on education and health and even tried to say that he had no intention of disengaging Australia from the disastrous Vietnam war.
    There’s nothing wrong with preferring to vote Greens or Socialist Workers come to that. But to say there’s no difference between Labor and Liberal is just the same silliness I heard back then and which does nothing to advance the cause of a progressive society one jot.

  20. 1934pc

    Nath
    Has continuous brain malfunctions, so feel sorry for her!

    I was going to take issue with this because I thought you should have used “continual” rather than “continuous”. Your use of “continuous” is right though if you are suggesting that Nath has a number of brain malfunctions and that they are continuous.

  21. And comparing Shorten to Whitlam, well it’s comparing am Oompa Loompa to a giant…..actually that’s not comparing that’s just describing.

  22. BB.

    I am not gripped by any delusion as you state.

    AFAIAC the ‘real fight’ is out in the real world holding one on one face-to-face conversations.

    I come on here for some light relief and distraction.

    I am sure you have some delusions of your own but I am not so presumptuous as to speculate about them here.

  23. You can post funny pics of Morrison and Trump all day and it’s all good fun, but do it against Shorten and they become unhinged!

  24. Now we know what all those quiet one-on-one discusions between Trump & Putin were all about.
    Trump asking ‘can I please build a hotel in Moscow’ and Putin replying ‘just a few more favours before i agree’

  25. Sir Henry Parkes @ #2028 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 4:30 pm

    nath says:
    Monday, January 21, 2019 at 3:07 pm
    Steve Davis showing his naiveté in imagining that Bill Shorten cares for anything except Bill Shorten.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    Nath and another well-known poster remind me so much of the no-nothing anti-Whitlam haters before Whitlam led Labor to government in 1972.
    “Don’t trust Whitlam; you don’t know Whitlam,” was a refrain I heard from some in the left of the Victorian ALP, sad to say, who, I think, did not really want Labor to win. There was no Greens party in those days so I guess there was nowhere else for them to go.
    But they preferred the luxury of opposition, where they and like-minds could dream about the glorious revolution to come, without actually doing anything.
    Like Nath ignoring Shorten’s achievements on the NDIS, they ignored Whitlam’s policies on education and health and even tried to say that he had no intention of disengaging Australia from the disastrous Vietnam war.
    There’s nothing wrong with preferring to vote Greens or Socialist Workers come to that. But to say there’s no difference between Labor and Liberal is just the same silliness I heard back then and which does nothing to advance the cause of a progressive society one jot.

    Liberal and Labor share so many policy positions.

    Defence

    Asylum seekers

    Newstart/New immigrant welfare

    TPP

    Indigenous Affairs

    Fraudband

    and on and on…

  26. BB:

    [‘…or (even more bizarre a delusion) that Labor apparatchiks come here to pick up strategy ideas.’]

    Not so bizarre. I would think that both sides’ staffers have a bo peep from time to time – arguably the premier psephological/political blog in Oz.

  27. Kennett inspired me to become a community activist.

    Tampa inspired me to support the Greens and then join the party as a member.

  28. nath @ #2036 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 4:35 pm

    You can post funny pics of Morrison and Trump all day and it’s all good fun, but do it against Shorten and they become unhinged!

    It’s a matter of pertinence, nath.

    The ones about Morrison and Trump are pertinent.

    Yours about Bill Shorten are impertinent.

    They’re not even funny.

    What they are is mean and nasty.

  29. Ketan Joshi
    ‏@KetanJ0

    We are constantly desensitised to precisely how massively weird and huge it is for a major media outlet to be running climate denial.

    Imagine how you’d react to daily editorials on whether the moon landing was faked.

    That does far less harm than denial of global warming.

  30. nath @ #2035 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 12:35 pm

    You can post funny pics of Morrison and Trump all day and it’s all good fun, but do it against Shorten and they become unhinged!

    You trawl through the past, which has been endlessly trawled through at the time and at a subsequent RC, whilst the comments on Morrison and the Government is focused on now and the current events.

  31. lizzie @ #2042 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 4:49 pm

    Ketan Joshi
    ‏@KetanJ0

    We are constantly desensitised to precisely how massively weird and huge it is for a major media outlet to be running climate denial.

    Imagine how you’d react to daily editorials on whether the moon landing was faked.

    That does far less harm than denial of global warming.

    Well, yes, but surely you get the point… ?

  32. Bushfire

    I have certainly learned more about the way that Ozpolitics works since reading Pollbludger, and met some very interesting people along the way.

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