BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

BludgerTrack returns from hibernation, albeit with only one new poll result to play with.

The return of Essential Research provided the BludgerTrack mill with its first grist for the new year, but the model is at its least robust when it only has one data point to play with after a long gap. This means BludgerTrack strongly follows the lead of a poll that was less bad for the Coalition than their usual form, resulting in a substantial reduction in Labor’s still commanding lead on two-party preferred. Labor is also down six on the seat projection – one in each mainland state and two in Queensland. The Essential poll also included a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and these produced a weak result for Bill Shorten that has blunted his recent improving trend. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,129 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. Goll,

    Smith might look weird before release, but at release he’s solid as. It might not please the purists but that funky bottom hand and his move across to off opens up scoring areas most others could only dream about without closing off the off side. Different but very logical.

    As for S.A., he’s paying for that failure. If only Hohns and Chappell were paying a similar price for theirs.

  2. Even Abbott thinks that people should vote Labor.

    lol. Well there’s an endorsement if there ever was one, that Labor is no progressive, left-wing party.

    The quote posted from SD is from an article in The Australian (any objections to that source?):

    https://outline.com/TeRLfb

    Here’s another quote:

    The former prime minister said voting for independents, such as Rob Oakeshott and Clive Palmer, would diminish the parliament.

    lol

  3. Pegasus @ #1942 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 1:37 pm

    Fed Labor opposed the Senate voting reform and were widely condemned.

    Now, Fed Labor is canvassing an option to give electoral public funding per seat won instead of per vote.

    How can a party that touts to support democracy even countenance such an option?

    Such an undemocratic option, one that would entrench the political duopoly, should be totally off the table.

    public funding per seat won instead of per vote = blatant corruption

  4. Don
    At the risk of becoming a systematic nuisance may I suggest that of Wayne’s ramblings, the possibility of delay for the Reps and the associated hullabaloo because of the Senate reqirement in May, Morrison may be forced into this option.
    Yesterday at 7.45pm I outlined the scenario for just such a possibility. (Under thd moniker of Goo!!!!).
    Morrison is not in control.

  6. Pegasus

    “lol. Well there’s an endorsement if there ever was one, that Labor is no progressive, left-wing party.”

    FFS. Like all Greens, you have all the political nous of a lobotomised lemming. Abbott’s suggestion that people should vote Labor (not Independent) in conservative (non-Labor) seats is a political ploy. Even you should be able to see through that… though I’m probably giving you too much credit.

  8. K
    Sure, that was his intent when he mentioned the minor parties in the same breath. For example, Melbourne currently held by Greens Bandt – such a conservative seat.

  9. Pegasus says:
    Monday, January 21, 2019 at 2:06 pm
    K
    Sure, that was his intent when he mentioned the minor parties in the same breath. For example, Melbourne currently held by Greens Bandt – such a conservative seat.

    _____________________________________

    The independents that Abbott is warning against are people who could take currently held Coalition seats. I sure he would have no problems with independents or Greens or anyone else taking Labor seats that the Coalition has no chance of winning.

  10. To pay more for a worse service will not make us happy!

    I am guaranteed to get a poorer service with the NBN. The speed I get now is not possible under the NBN.

    Great job Malcom, mission accomplished.

  11. John Menadue on Labor and the private health insurance industry:

    http://johnmenadue.com/john-menadue-private-health-insurance-is-a-con-job-is-labor-being-conned-again/

    The ALP does not seem to understand its own creation- Medicare- and that the $11 b taxpayer subsidy to PHI is like a Damocles sword that hangs over Medicare. Ian McAuley in Medicare under threat from Labor points out that Labor in its”consultation document’ on a proposed reference of PHI to the Productivity Commission suggests not only retaining PHI but strengthening it.

    This may only be a stratagem to get the PHI lobby of Labor’s back in the run up to the next election. But Labor’s record on PHI is not at all reassuring. Has there been a deal done with PHI as Kevin Rudd did before the 2007 election?
    :::
    If individuals want to take out private health insurance, that is their right. But there is no reason why the Commonwealth government should pay a $11 billion p.a. subsidy that is undermining Medicare.

    In the SMH Ross Gittins described PHI as a ‘con job’. Has the PHI lobby conned the ALP?

    The modern day ALP does not understand one of its most famous achievements – Medicare.

  12. Crikey they are getting big.

    Manufacturer Siemens Gamesa said the new turbine, with its 94m-long blades, will be on the market within three years………….
    …….The company claims an offshore wind development with 20 of these turbines would be enough to power a city the size of Liverpool for a year……………….the escalating arms race to create ever-larger wind turbines is partly responsible for the reduction in price of renewable power that has taken place, with developers halving their costs in four years.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/wind-turbines-large-football-pitch-siemens-gamesa-renewable-energy-a8734656.html

  15. Pegasus @ #1943 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 1:25 pm

    In Victoria, Labor and the Coalition are on a unity ticket to not reform the upper house voting system. For four years before the last state election both parties had talked about the need for reform.

    All talk, no action.

    The political duopoly acted in concert, both parties colluded, to not support a more democratic system.

    Cynical p0litics – you bet. Believe a word of their promises – Why would you?

    Yep, the Greens will support donation reform, but only if it doesn’t effect them. Cynical hypocrites!

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/04/greens-to-oppose-foreign-donation-bill

  16. Rex Douglas @ #1918 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 8:08 am

    sgh1969 @ #1845 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 9:29 am

    774ABC Melbourne’s morning presenter Jon Faine announces that 2019 will be his last in front of the microphone and will retire at the end of the year.

    https://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/abc-s-jon-faine-to-retire-after-30-years-with-the-broadcaster-20190121-p50sl6.html

    Thankyou Jon Faine for entertaining me all these years.

    Now Melbourne bludgers, who to take over next year …?

    I nominate Virginia Trioli.

    Great choice Rex, at least it would take out of the national spotlight. 🙂

  17. KayJay

    I guessed that you were talking about the girl.
    I seems that the “edit function” forces such a delay in taking down one pic and substituting another that eager beaver PB watchers such as yourself have time to notice the change.

    The problem is also in Twitter, which since Christmas has reacted so slowly to clicks that it frequently picks up the previous image or message. Sooo frustrating. I’m not sure who to blame, Trump or the Greens. Someone without a sense of humour, anyway. :kiss:

  19. Tom

    Did you actually read the entire article you linked to? It details the Greens objections to the bill.

    While supporting a ban on foreign donations in principle, the Greens’ democracy spokeswoman, Lee Rhiannon, has warned the Turnbull government’s bill to do so will change the rules on public funding of elections and echoed concerns it is targeted at the progressive campaign organisation GetUp.
    :::
    Under the current federal electoral laws, parties receive public funding based on their size of the vote regardless of what it is spent on, whereas in Queensland and New South Wales funding is tied to electoral expenditure.

    The special minister of state, Mathias Cormann, said the bill “limits payments to demonstrated spending on elections to stop electoral funding profiteering”.

    But Rhiannon told Guardian Australia “the narrow definition of what would qualify as election expenditure will severely reduce funding for minor political parties”.
    :::
    Rhiannon said the measure would reduce the ability of minor parties to use public funding to pay for their administrative costs and finance their other campaigns.

    “This will put pressure on minor parties to chase large political donations, which is undesirable because of the corrupting influence that they have,” she said. “Such a change in funding will help entrench a duopoly in Australian politics.”
    :::
    Rhiannon said the Greens “would be prepared to support a bill that bans foreign donations to political parties” but the current bill “runs cover for … measures that will give political advantage to the Liberal and National parties”.

    She argued the bill also “severely restricts community groups’ activities while not touching big Australian corporate political donations”.

  22. A more recent article on foreign donations bill which has passed the Senate:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/15/coalition-bill-to-ban-foreign-political-donations-passes-senate

    The government’s bill to ban foreign political donations has passed the Senate after backroom negotiations with Labor resolved a dispute about the Coalition’s attempt to override state donation laws.
    :::
    The Greens remained critical of aspects of the legislation, citing advice that despite the Coalition and Labor’s assurances the bill may create a loophole for political parties to restructure their finances to avoid state developer donation bans.
    ::
    Labor succeeded in making a symbolic second reading amendment calling for the threshold for disclosure of political donations to be reduced to $1,000. A suite of Greens amendments, including to cap all political donations at $1,000, failed.

    The Greens’ democracy spokeswoman, Larissa Waters, said the bill attempted to regulate only the 6% of political donations from foreign sources, leaving 94% of donations which “corrupt democracy” unregulated.

    Waters said the bill “doesn’t even stop all” foreign sources of money, because of the potential for foreign companies to donate through Australian subsidiaries and the exception allowing foreign residents of Australia to donate.

  24. Abbott’s commentary no doubt stems from his backroom knowledge of just how much the Lab and Lib majors have scratched each others assess over the decades, to maintain the mediocrity we see in Auspol above all else. To see that nothing really changes in this land of mates.

  25. Quoll @ #1973 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 1:44 pm

    Abbott’s commentary no doubt stems from his backroom knowledge of just how much the Lab and Lib majors have scratched each others assess over the decades

    Or it stems from a long-term strategy. Something to the effect of:

    1. Ensure Labor gets in with an unquestionable majority.
    2. Leave behind as many landmines and poison pills as possible.
    3. Blame Labor for everything.

    Although maybe not, considering that they already do #3, like, constantly.

  26. https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/murder-accused-codey-herrmann-may-be-vulnerable-in-custody-court-hears-20190121-p50smz.html

    Odd that the police application for DNA testing was withdrawn (but I am by no means an expert in Victorian criminal procedure) given that at the moment the police case as the identity of the perpetrator seems to be entirely made up of identifying clothing found near the scene of the crime with that worn by the accused several days before …

    In NSW police have a reasonably wide power to take a DNA buccal sample upon arrest without a court order.

  27. The Tasmanian Government has been criticised for spending more than $350,000 of taxpayers’ money defending anti-protest laws it was warned might fail in court.
    Part of a Tasmanian Liberal crackdown on forest protests, the laws were struck out by the High Court after a successful challenge by former Australian Greens leader Bob Brown in 2017.

    Key points:
    Liberals’ anti-protest laws were aimed at stopping disruptive protests at forestry operations
    High Court found laws were at odds with the implied right to freedom of political communication
    The challenge stemmed from the 2016 arrest of Bob Brown in Tasmania’s north-west while he was trying to take video footage of loggers.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-17/taxpayers-foot-350k-bill-for-tas-liberals-failed-legal-action/10720884

    When will we be able to stop logging forests, in response to the danger of global warming?

  28. It’s official, the Government’s Special Envoy for Indigenous Affairs is doing such a bang up job that he is being challenged at the next election by an indigenous woman.

    Susan Moylan-Coombs launches campaign to beat Tony Abbott in Warringah

    Indigenous broadcaster calls for Australia Day date to change and outlines platform of local issues

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/21/susan-moylan-coombs-launches-campaign-to-beat-tony-abbott-in-warringah

  29. Abbott’s pronouncement about voting Labor ahead of Independents is clearly aimed at the voters of Warringah, where Independents are posing a strong challenge to his election.

    He can’t say straight out “even if you don’t like me much, help me survive by wasting your vote on a Labor candidate who statistically has no hope of being elected”. But this is what he means.

  32. Barney
    A government occupying seats for the sake of power and making sure they get every cent of their salaries out of the taxpayer.

  33. Looks like the money shufflers have factored in a certain Labor win:

    “Shares sold to beat ALP franking change
    ELI GREENBLAT
    Australia’s biggest listed investor has sold off shares in miners BHP and Rio to fund a special pre-election dividend.” (Oz headline)

  36. No wage stagnation for the super rich! 🙁

    Australia’s rich keep getting richer, with billionaires’ wealth rising $160b in one year, says Oxfam

    Australia’s rich keep getting richer, with the top 1 per cent of Australians owning more wealth than the bottom 70 per cent combined.

    A new report from Oxfam has found another record increase in the number of billionaires in Australia — from 33 to 43 — with their combined wealth climbing to almost $160 billion last year.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-21/australias-rich-keep-getting-richer/10731700

  37. The Turnbull and Morrison Governments have done a very good job of running this great country of ours and Scott Morrison will retain government in November this years as the Australian public will not be able to trust bill Shorten as he will run this great country of ours into the ground and we will be back in debt in no time and also the people smugglers will be back in business conning people into getting into boats…….

  38. citizen

    Abbott’s cunning plan is obvious to you, me, and the vast majority of PBers – and to Blind Freddy as well. But Rex, Peg, and Quoll are having trouble grasping such a sophisticated concept as ‘tactical voting’.

  40. Kakuru @ #1955 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 2:01 pm

    Pegasus

    “lol. Well there’s an endorsement if there ever was one, that Labor is no progressive, left-wing party.”

    FFS. Like all Greens, you have all the political nous of a lobotomised lemming. Abbott’s suggestion that people should vote Labor (not Independent) in conservative (non-Labor) seats is a political ploy. Even you should be able to see through that… though I’m probably giving you too much credit.

    Has Pegasus been into the devil’s lettuce again? 😆

  43. Wayne @ #1985 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 11:01 am

    The Turnbull and Morrison Governments have done a very good job of running this great country of ours and Scott Morrison will retain government in November this years as the Australian public will not be able to trust bill Shorten as he will run this great country of ours into the ground and we will be back in debt in no time and also the people smugglers will be back in business conning people into getting into boats…….

    I’d like to see your KPI’s if you think that. 😆

  44. Quoll

    Abbott’s commentary no doubt stems from his backroom knowledge of just how much the Lab and Lib majors have scratched each others assess over the decades

    _________________________________

    Is this something to do with the donkey vote?

  49. BiGD

    Re the wealth gap. Did you notice the ‘coincidental’ numbers ?

    Wealth change in year.
    Billionaires Plus 12%
    Poorest 50% of world population . Minus 11%.

  50. TPOF @ #1992 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 11:03 am

    Quoll

    Abbott’s commentary no doubt stems from his backroom knowledge of just how much the Lab and Lib majors have scratched each others assess over the decades

    _________________________________

    Is this something to do with the donkey vote?

    Something’s got to pull the cart along! 🙂

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