BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

BludgerTrack returns from hibernation, albeit with only one new poll result to play with.

The return of Essential Research provided the BludgerTrack mill with its first grist for the new year, but the model is at its least robust when it only has one data point to play with after a long gap. This means BludgerTrack strongly follows the lead of a poll that was less bad for the Coalition than their usual form, resulting in a substantial reduction in Labor’s still commanding lead on two-party preferred. Labor is also down six on the seat projection – one in each mainland state and two in Queensland. The Essential poll also included a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and these produced a weak result for Bill Shorten that has blunted his recent improving trend. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,129 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

  1. lizzie @ #1846 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 9:28 am

    News Breakfast

    Verified account

    @BreakfastNews
    1h1 hour ago
    More
    “The Coalition has done more to progress the causes of women in the last five years than, I think, any government in the last 40,” says Liberal Senator @SenatorHume #auspol

    Unbelievable.

    Just because a Liberal Woman is saying it, doesn’t make it the truth. In fact, quite the opposite. Any woman that has survived in today’s Liberal Party has done so by subsuming themselves within the male-dominated culture.

  2. NSW batsman Kurtis Patterson could make an unexpected Test debut this week against Sri Lanka in Brisbane after Australian selectors had a change of heart

    SMH
    They have been shamed into it against their better allegiances. What a way to run a cricket raffle.

  3. ‘Worst lawyer in the history of mankind’: Giuliani mocked on MSNBC for incoherent Sunday interviews

    Watching clips of Rudy Giuliani’s bumbling and “insane” performances on both NBC and CNN on Sunday morning, the entire panel on AM Joy was beside themselves with laughter and disbelief that he was once a respected U.S. attorney.

    AM Joy regular Kurt Bardella — a former Republican who split with the party over Trump — wondered if the president and Giuliani even communicate with each other.

    “It is almost like, did Rudy talk to Donald Trump at all?” he asked with a smirk. “This has got to be the worst lawyer in the history of mankind. He should be disbarred for being such a terrible lawyer. Every time he goes on television, he contradicts himself — and not what he said a week ago — in the same conversation he’ll contradict himself. It’s insane.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/worst-lawyer-history-mankind-giuliani-mocked-msnbc-incoherent-sunday-interviews/

  4. R. Woody
    10h10 hours ago

    Remember when the ALP gov introduced cigarette plain packaging bill?
    It was in 2011. @ScottMorrisonMP (& shadow health minister @PeterDutton_MP) voted AGAINST it.
    Now #SloMo is talking about helping hundreds who have lung cancer!?

    I’m beginning to hate the phrase “stronger economy”.

    Scott Morrison
    ‏Today we announced subsidies for a life-saving lung cancer treatment. Help is on the way for hundreds of Australians. We can fund medicines like this because our Government’s plan to deliver a stronger economy and bring the Budget back into balance is working.

  5. Greensborough Growler @ #1825 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 8:58 am

    It’s so wonderful to have Pegasus return from her self imposed exile following the Greens debacle of a Victorian State Election.

    She’s rested, been to the room of mirrors, reviewed all the reasons why it all went so horribly wrong for her little cult.

    What’s even better is that she has decided not to change her approach in any way, shape or form. Still the cut and paste. Still the never ending denigration of all things ALP.

    The ALP thanks her and her coterie of irrelevant buffoons for continuing their role of of snarky nay sayers determined to entrench their irrelevancy to Australian political debate.

    Maybe you should stay in NSW, GG. It seems to be agreeing with you. 🙂

  6. lizzie,
    Helping the people with lung cancer is a by-product of helping the drug companies that supply it.

    It’s why the Coalition fought so hard against plain packaging. They would rather a drug company makes a profit from the smoker on the way out, and the tobacco companies make a profit from the smoker on the way in. Win-win for them.

  7. Meanwhile some interesting tweets re buzzfeed and the report Jason Leopold

    Benjamin Landy
    Benjamin Landy
    @Ben_Landy
    ·
    6h
    This was strange at the time, and even more so now. Hopefully Buzzfeed can clarify soon.
    Quote Tweet
    Oliver Darcy
    @oliverdarcy
    —@brianstelter asks @a_cormier_ if he can explain discrepancy between him saying Friday on CNN that BuzzFeed has not seen the documents supporting disputed story, and @JasonLeopold saying hours later on MSNBC they have seen documents. Cormier says he can’t get into that.

    4h
    The fact is, if
    @JasonLeopold
    were not at Buzzfeed he would have no credibility.
    He is a pro-Russia reporter who made up sources.
    He plagiarised.
    He guests on Russia Today
    He literally wrote for Infowars. INFOWARS!
    Leopold is using Cormier’s genuine credibility and track record.

    Joe Concha
    Joe Concha
    @JoeConchaTV
    ·
    6h
    When asked on Reliable Sources where Jason Leopold was after being requested to join the show along with co-writer Anthony Cormier (who was there) of the disputed Trump-Cohen story, Buzzfeed editor Ben Smith replies, “He’s out reporting.” Leopold hasn’t been heard from for three days

  8. @brianstelter asks @a_cormier_ if he can explain discrepancy between him saying Friday on CNN that BuzzFeed has not seen the documents supporting disputed story, and @JasonLeopold saying hours later on MSNBC they have seen documents.

    The relevant point there being that such documents apparently do in fact exist.

    Cormier says he can’t get into that.

    Because he’s been told, in no uncertain terms, to stop doing things that prejudice an ongoing investigation.

  9. Simon² Katich® @ #1852 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 5:34 am

    NSW batsman Kurtis Patterson could make an unexpected Test debut this week against Sri Lanka in Brisbane after Australian selectors had a change of heart

    SMH
    They have been shamed into it against their better allegiances. What a way to run a cricket raffle.

    Shouldn’t that read;

    NSW batsman Kurtis Patterson could make an expected Test debut this week against Sri Lanka in Brisbane after Australian selectors had a change of heart

    It seems nearly everyone expects him to be in the side except the selectors.

  10. I fail to understand the argument for donations equating to free speech and being legal in the first place.

    If you have oddles of money you can donate bucket loads to a political party in order to get access and, lets face it, favour. The more money the more access. You create tiers of “free speech”. Most of us have economy free speech. The rich have business or first class free speech. Play it out and the economy seats get more and more ‘economy’.
    In what plane of reality is that either fair or democratic? It just entrenches power to the wealthy and the corporate, restricts it to the rest, disrupts the balance between company and worker that keeps capitalism in check, corrupts the democratic system and the economic one that relies on meritocracy and competition to keep it efficient and fair.

  11. Confessions

    Phillips was a bit stretchy with the truth.The kids were being heckled by some religious group,Black Hebrews for Israel or some such, he came along and walked into their midst. In fact the Black dudes were earlier hassling the Indians, (start of video )Overall I think the school has been hard done by by the media.

    This is the ‘Black Hebrew’s’ video. Go to 1:12:00 to see what was happening just before during and after. If you have 105 minutes of your life to waste watch the whole video 🙂
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3EC1_gcr34&feature=youtu.be

  12. don @ #1395 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 8:39 am

    At the moment Barnaby Joyce is still the only high profile candidate for New England.

    Labor have not put up a candidate capable of winning (to be fair, if you walked on water and were Labor you wouldn’t win New England anyway.)

    Fiona Simson of the NFF would have a fair chance, but the word is that she is not (so far at least, we live in hope) going to run.

    Come on down, Barnaby!

    I’m an Anglican and the Anglican Church in New England (Diocese of Armidale) is also arch conservative. Alike Sydney (their more or less owners) they are homophobic, fundamentalist ‘christains’ that still ban women from ministry. Must be something in the breeding up there? Or is it the inbreeding?

  13. Simon² Katich® @ #1860 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 5:54 am

    I fail to understand the argument for donations equating to free speech and being legal in the first place.

    If you have oddles of money you can donate bucket loads to a political party in order to get access and, lets face it, favour. The more money the more access. You create tiers of “free speech”. Most of us have economy free speech. The rich have business or first class free speech. Play it out and the economy seats get more and more ‘economy’.
    In what plane of reality is that either fair or democratic? It just entrenches power to the wealthy and the corporate, restricts it to the rest, disrupts the balance between company and worker that keeps capitalism in check, corrupts the democratic system and the economic one that relies on meritocracy and competition to keep it efficient and fair.

    Yep, if I can’t donate shed loads of money to you it impacts on my free speech! 😆

    Society should trump the individual in this area.

  14. Jane Caro Retweeted
    Caroline Overington

    Kelly O’Dwyer cannot stay in parliament because she has two small children and it’s just too hard. Barnaby Joyce has five children, and now another on the way! No problem, apparently. And that’s the problem. #wifedrought

  15. Simon² Katich® says:

    I fail to understand the argument for donations equating to free speech and being legal in the first place.

    If you want to see super-heated steam come out of my ears mention political party fund raisers charging 10s of thousands for ‘meet the minister’ opportunities.

  16. It seems nearly everyone expects him to be in the side except the selectors.

    Patterson is ineligible. It would mean when Smith and Warner come back Justin Langer will be coaching an Australian test team with 8 NSWelshmen in it and no West Australians (1 Vic, 1 Tas, 1 SA).
    Imagine that.

  17. Barney, did you like my extension of the airplane metaphor into the phrase ‘plane of reality’?

    I worked hard on that and rather proud of my efforts.

    Applause not necessary.

  18. poroti @ #1865 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 6:01 am

    Simon² Katich® says:

    I fail to understand the argument for donations equating to free speech and being legal in the first place.

    If you want to see super-heated steam come out of my ears mention political party fund raisers charging 10s of thousands for ‘meet the minister’ opportunities.

    Agree, they are public officials, so to profit from their position, personally or by the Party, should be completely illegal.

  19. Now yesterday, PVO foolishly retweeted this troll Twitter account, before deleting it. Sally McManus was right on to it, sending a series of tweets, see below, pointing out what Blind Freddy knows – especially if anyone had been taking even the slightest interest in the manipulation of social media in other jurisdictions.
    -0-

    With all due respect to my cyber friend Sprocket whose contributions I usually appreciate, I was hoping that we would stop referring to Blind Freddy. My wife who is legally blind and an advocate for people who have vision loss and has a good sense of humor does not find it amusing, and my late father Fred, my late brother Fred and son Fred might also find it a demeaning caricature. It is not “just a figure of speech.”

  20. Simon² Katich® @ #1866 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 6:02 am

    It seems nearly everyone expects him to be in the side except the selectors.

    Patterson is ineligible. It would mean when Smith and Warner come back Justin Langer will be coaching an Australian test team with 8 NSWelshmen in it and no West Australians (1 Vic, 1 Tas, 1 SA).
    Imagine that.

    So be it!

    Plus it saves on those expensive airfares from the West! 🙂

  21. Don
    The not yet announce candidates for New England are keeping their ‘powder dry’.
    I’ve heard you express your opinion of the voters in New England and it would be hard to disagree with you.
    I believe however that Joyce may be in for a shock as to how many voters are ready to express their disappointment with not only his indiscreet peccadilloes but his blatant pandering to big business farmers.

  22. Simon-squared: “I fail to understand the argument for donations equating to free speech and being legal in the first place.”

    You’ll be happy to know that the High Court agrees with you. In McCloy they upheld a law prohibiting donations from developers and said:

    Equality of opportunity to participate in the exercise of political sovereignty is an aspect of the representative democracy guaranteed by our Constitution. … The risk to equal participation posed by the uncontrolled use of wealth may warrant legislative action to ensure, or even enhance, the practical enjoyment of popular sovereignty.
    The risks that large political donations have for a system of representative government have been acknowledged since Federation.

    Capping of political donations is a measure which has been adopted by many countries with systems of representative government. It is a means that does not impede the system of representative government for which our Constitution provides.

    See http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCA/2015/34.html at paras [45]-[46]

    The limits of this are going to be explored in a couple more cases listed for argument in the next couple of months, but I can’t see their Hons going back on the basic principles stated above.

  23. You have to wonder how PvO came across that fake facebook/Twitter account that denigrated K O’D so quickly?

    And didn’t I tell you that the Liberal Dirt Unit were going to fight this election dirty?

    PvO is the perfect conduit too.

  24. 8 NSW players in The test team? A good start that is!

    However, I reckon Richardson might end up as a permanent fixture, so …

  25. [NathanA says:
    Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 8:49 pm
    Have to say that I’m very, very disappointed with both Bill Shorten’s and the Greens Jordan-Steele’s comments on the “cash for cruelty” allegations, where Animals Australia were allegedly offering money for specific footage from workers on live export vessels that was subsequently delivered and paid for.

    “”It’s not my role to always judge how information gets out there,” Mr Shorten told reporters in Brisbane on Friday.
    “For me, what worries me is the images we see.”

    and

    Speaking in general terms, Greens Senator Jordon Steele-John said he did not have a problem with welfare groups paying for footage.
    “I think it is important that organisations that care about animal welfare take any step necessary really to uncover the truth,” Mr Steele-John told the ABC’s Country Hour.

    This is a terrible response for politicians that bang on about integrity. If Person A offers to pay big bucks to Person B for footage of “piles of dead sheep” to blame on Person C, you better believe there’ll be piles of dead sheep. But you might as well believe the wrestling is real if you’re then going to take those images at face value. For some reason it hasn’t been commented much on PB, but I know plenty of people that are blowing up deluxe over this.

    Much better to say that the allegations need to be properly investigated, because integrity doesn’t just mean scrutinizing the people you disagree with. These allegations from the Daily Telegraph are very serious for mine and more may come out in the near future. They ought to be taken seriously and properly investigated.]

    …………………………………………………………………………………………

    Nathan A, if your concern is genuine the only conclusion that can possibly be reached from your post is that you are a very gullible fish so easily baited you literally flop into the boat yourself when hooked.

    The allegations that you say are “very serious for mine” is that the person who took distressing footage of animal cruelty was paid for the footage. The reason you give for your concern is there is a risk that the person who was purportedly paid for the footage had deliberately concocted the footage, presumably to “earn” the payment.

    There are several comments to be made:

    1. First, there doesn’t seem to be any dispute from anyone that whether or not there was concoction in the footage, the animals were treated very cruelly by the ship operators. Worrying about whether the whistleblower added to the cruelty in some way or another becomes very much beside the point which is that there was in fact very systemic cruelty.

    2. Secondly, as PTMD has pointed out, taking the footage exposed the whistleblower to potential considerable risk (criminals do not like being revealed), potential considerable loss of employment opportunities and some expense. A payment for bravery and effort is justifiable for that reason alone.

    3. Giving whistleblowers a reward does come with a risk that the reporting is concocted for reward. It appears that Animal Justice Australia were aware of the risk as they obtained confirmation from others on board who, presumably, could not expect to be rewarded themselves.

    4. Offering rewards to whistleblowers obviously gives an incentive to future whistleblowers to come forward with their stories of wrong-doing. It is certain the reason the Beetrooter, his anonymous successor and Fiona Simpson are stirring this pot is to discourage Animal Justice from paying whistleblowers – seemingly the only source of malpractice in this notoriously corrupted industry.

    5. The Beetroote rnever shamed Harry Nowicki for his payment of the contemptible Blewitt (whose own sister disowned him). I rather recall him jumping on board the Heydon Royal Commission fiasco that followed and we can be sure the next paid anti-union whistleblower will be treated with equal seriousness (as should be the case if the source is reliable) with nary a worry that someone paid the whistleblower.

  26. Just a little observation about the impact of media ownership concentration.
    As most people would know, The West Australian is owned by the Kerry Stokes controlled Seven West Media.
    Stokes television network no longer broadcasts the Australian Open.
    At the start of week two of the Open, now broadcast on the Nine Network, I can report that the fine efforts of some young, and not so young, Australians, culminating in the great win by Barty yesterday, have not been deemed the most important sport story in The West, being relegated each day to the inside pages.
    Today’s lead story in sport is about a win by the local basketball team, the Perth Wildcats.
    They probably couldn’t find a story about the West Coast eagles

  27. Goll @ #1875 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 10:15 am

    Don
    The not yet announce candidates for New England are keeping their ‘powder dry’.
    I’ve heard you express your opinion of the voters in New England and it would be hard to disagree with you.
    I believe however that Joyce may be in for a shock as to how many voters are ready to express their disappointment with not only his indiscreet peccadilloes but his blatant pandering to big business farmers.

    May it be so.

  28. “Re; Morrison and Barty…closest you will ever see a LNP politician giving any support to an indigenous Australian.”

    Hang on:

    Doesn’t ScoMo have the parachute waiting for Warren Mundine, AO?

    Not to mention Jacinta Price as the CLP candidate for Solomon?

    Not forgetting Ken Wyatt …

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