The return of Essential Research provided the BludgerTrack mill with its first grist for the new year, but the model is at its least robust when it only has one data point to play with after a long gap. This means BludgerTrack strongly follows the lead of a poll that was less bad for the Coalition than their usual form, resulting in a substantial reduction in Labor’s still commanding lead on two-party preferred. Labor is also down six on the seat projection – one in each mainland state and two in Queensland. The Essential poll also included a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and these produced a weak result for Bill Shorten that has blunted his recent improving trend. Full results through the link below.
Barney in Go Dau @ #2043 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 4:51 pm
Surely it’s fair to consider their past histories when evaluating the character of the leaders…?
C@tmomma
says:
Monday, January 21, 2019 at 4:45 pm
nath @ #2036 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 4:35 pm
You can post funny pics of Morrison and Trump all day and it’s all good fun, but do it against Shorten and they become unhinged!
It’s a matter of pertinence, nath.
The ones about Morrison and Trump are pertinent.
Yours about Bill Shorten are impertinent.
They’re not even funny.
What they are is mean and nasty.
__________________________
What’s more likely, your acute sense of pertinence or is it just political bias?
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, January 21, 2019 at 4:38 pm
Sir Henry Parkes @ #2028 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 4:30 pm
nath says:
Monday, January 21, 2019 at 3:07 pm
Steve Davis showing his naiveté in imagining that Bill Shorten cares for anything except Bill Shorten.
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Nath and another well-known poster remind me so much of the no-nothing anti-Whitlam haters before Whitlam led Labor to government in 1972.
“Don’t trust Whitlam; you don’t know Whitlam,” was a refrain I heard from some in the left of the Victorian ALP, sad to say, who, I think, did not really want Labor to win. There was no Greens party in those days so I guess there was nowhere else for them to go.
But they preferred the luxury of opposition, where they and like-minds could dream about the glorious revolution to come, without actually doing anything.
Like Nath ignoring Shorten’s achievements on the NDIS, they ignored Whitlam’s policies on education and health and even tried to say that he had no intention of disengaging Australia from the disastrous Vietnam war.
There’s nothing wrong with preferring to vote Greens or Socialist Workers come to that. But to say there’s no difference between Labor and Liberal is just the same silliness I heard back then and which does nothing to advance the cause of a progressive society one jot.
Liberal and Labor share so many policy positions.
Defence
Asylum seekers
Newstart/New immigrant welfare
TPP
Indigenous Affairs
Fraudband
and on and on…
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And on and on you go Rex. Labor and the Coalition do share some policies, but even on asylum seekers, Labor is at least committed to getting refugees off Manus and Naru as soon as possible.
As for Indigenous affairs. Are you serious Rex? Shorten made it clear from the beginning that he was committed to establish a voice to Parliament for Indigenous Australians; something the Liberals claim is a third chamber of Parliament.
I could also mention the republic, improved education funding, action on climate change and ending tax dodges through negative gearing.
But I don’t think you’re interested in facts, only some sort of bizarre anti-Labor leftism of the type I described above.
Barney in Go Dau
says:
Monday, January 21, 2019 at 4:51 pm
nath @ #2035 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 12:35 pm
You can post funny pics of Morrison and Trump all day and it’s all good fun, but do it against Shorten and they become unhinged!
You trawl through the past, which has been endlessly trawled through at the time and at a subsequent RC, whilst the comments on Morrison and the Government is focused on now and the current events.
___________________________________
Bludgers have gone into the past to talk about Morrison, his church, his time in New Zealand, at Tourism Australia, how he got the seat of Cook. All ring a bell?
Rex Douglas @ #2048 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 12:53 pm
It’s already well and truly public knowledge and has been shown to present no issue.
Rex, nath (and possibly others) — it is no concern of mine if you are considered trolls or not.
But what I will call you both is “utterly lazy” in terms of policy argument — I mean seriously, the glib single-line crap you guys vomit all over the blog shows a complete lack of respect for yourselves and those you try to rile up.
It is comical really, especially if you think your blunt barbs have any effect on those here who actually do our homework and investigate policy.
jenauthor @ #2054 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 4:59 pm
https://www.lovethisimages.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Thank-you-images-3.jpeg
I’m interested in real change.
I’m interested in moving away from the decades of duopoly Govt that has polluted the environment, crushed the indigenous culture, created a widening of inequality and a divide in our society, created a sense of elitism and cruelty to oppressed peoples fleeing their country of origin……..
nath @ #2051 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 12:55 pm
All these things have been raised in the media recently and are therefore out there for comment, the RC into Trade Unions finished years ago and have been dealt with.
Only you and the Government seem to be interested in bringing up Shorten’s background now with what has been shown to be baseless smear.
Barney in Go Dau @ #2050 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 4:56 pm
I think there’s most definitely an issue with the way both leaders made their way into parliament and how it goes to their character.
jenauthor @ #2051 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 4:59 pm
That was a lazy post from you, jen
Rex Douglas @ #2057 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 1:04 pm
What at a general election after being chosen by their Parties.
nath @ #2050 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 4:54 pm
I’m essentially objective. You’re not.
Sure, I support my party. I also take issue with certain of their policies. I also, when challenged, as Labor and their policies and actions were by sustainable future yesterday, take the time to argue my case with them. As a result, we part on friendly terms.
You are incapable of that.
Also, ever since you came to the blog you’ve had one aim, to be as mean and nasty to Bill Shorten and anyone else who sticks up for him here, as possible.
It’s obvious you are driving people away from, not to, the blog. Though I suppose if your aim is to kill a blog where most of the contributors are Labor and Centre Left-leaning people, then I have to say you are a raging success.
Ah, Another C@t attempt to get William to ban me. It’s so old by now.
I would expect Labor supporters to take my jibes at Shorten in the same spirit that I take jibes against the Greens. Although I am not a Greens member, I just tolerate their views and rarely fire back. But I’m not a sooky sooky la la. 🙂
Gee, some on here really take themselves seriously don’ they? Jenauthor (self published) does policy research. Really? How impressive.
Howard’s influence on the current LNP is still destructive. It’s time they stopped listening to him.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/at-work/liberal-women-an-endangered-species-after-yet-another-exit-hurting-scomos-chances/news-story/538a64cdb591baca8ad9d15927918fc8
Seriously, Nath is being “mean and nasty” to Bill Shorten. Ha, ha. Crankmomma, what a fan girl!
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, January 21, 2019 at 5:02 pm
…But I don’t think you’re interested in facts, only some sort of bizarre anti-Labor leftism of the type I described above.
I’m interested in real change.
I’m interested in moving away from the decades of duopoly Govt that has polluted the environment, crushed the indigenous culture, created a widening of inequality and a divide in our society, created a sense of elitism and cruelty to oppressed peoples fleeing their country of origin……..
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So am I Rex. You seem to think, going by what you write, that a change of government will make no difference to any of this.
If I’m misjudging you, enlighten me. Do you really honestly think that a Shorten government will be just like the Coalition? Couldn’t you at least concede that it will be better?
How do you intend to vote at this election? What do you hope happens?
Question for the brains trust.
Somebody is doing federal voting intention polling in Mackellar. Does anyone have any information? Unfortunately no one I’ve spoken to about it can work out the company or who is behind it and they havent rung my number.
Thoughts?
nath @ #2062 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 5:10 pm
You have an inflated opinion of your importance and doubtless Mr Bowe doesn’t think it worthwhile to even consider banning you as you are your own worst enemy.
IoM,
I’d say it was private polling for the Liberal Party and they know you aren’t a swinging voter. Likely they are testing how much their support has eroded in a normally safe seat.
C@
Yes, it’s striking how taken aback nath appears to be when one of us criticises Labor. It’s as if he can’t understand that you can support a party and be critical of it at the same time.
Nath steps up to bowl to Rex on an incredibly flat wicket, little movement, no bounce, the ball leaves the bat outside off stump.
Rex making Boycott seem positively dynamic, Nath talking to himself, the umpires having gone home, Peg fielding at fine third man, the crowds have gone home, the longest test in history.
The supporters of PB, now resting so as to attend a game of 20/20 whenever.
FFS
‘.. But I’m not a sooky sooky la la.’
Snort.
IoM,
Put your money on it being the Liberals doing internal polling. Falinski seems to be having kittens over Dick Smith.
Haven’t heard anything lately about him running, but if he did it would be one to watch.
clem
A lot of policy research is done on this blog. It’s one of the reasons it’s valuable.
As a candidate, I used to find that posters here provided me with far more information and background to policies than I could get through the campaign material – which was very much based on the assumption that candidates could just parrot the line du jour and there would be no follow up questions.
C@t
That is what I presume, however it still seems unlikely they would do it and that its being going on for at least two weeks now.
Sir Henry Parkes @ #2064 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 5:15 pm
The Liberal and Labor duopoly govt of past decades has pretended to have differences but they’re only minor differences promoted as something bigger by the compliant MSM.
As I said, look at the big picture – environment, indigenous culture, inequality, elitism, entitlement, cruelty – and it’s clear we need real change.
I’ll study my local candidates and hopefully there’s some independents who are evidence-based in their judgements. If I were in SA I’d definitely preference Tim Storer, same for Oakeshott in NSW.
Ratsak
The polling doesnt mention Dick Smith. Its mentions another independent by name.
You’re not going to get ‘real change’ any time soon if you rely on independents to deliver it.
zoomster @ #2081 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 5:27 pm
A Labor partisan would say that
Zoomster comes on as a substitute fielder and drops one at silly mid on.
Rex complaining to the umpire about Zoomster sledging from silly mid on.
Yeah, the ‘policy research’ basically amounts to scanning the morning stories from the MSM. Yep, that’s deep. Zoomster you must have been desperate, that is all I can say.
Rex
And so would a realist.
As I said, you are your own worst enemy here, nath. I attempted to honestly characterise the state of play on PB since you turned up, and what I get back is a wiseacre reply lacking substance or thoughtfulness.
People can see through it, nath. And it will never create the success you crave when it comes to denigrating Bill Shorten to the point people may turn on him in large numbers before the election. Which you obviously hope he will lose.
I don’t know why you want him to lose so badly, other than some nebulous hatred you have built up against him in particular, over and above the swathes of other politicians that would benefit from your forensic skills at ferreting out incriminating evidence of their misdeeds.
I can only feel profound pity for you, nath, at the end of the day, that you persist so fervently. And, no, we don’t agree that your just having a laff at Bill Shorten’s expense. There is something way more sinister than that to it. It’s as obvious as the proverbial dog’s balls.
But anyhow, toil away. You’re the one wasting your life doing it, and you obviously seem to enjoy it. Even if no one else does.
Rex Douglas says:
As I said, look at the big picture – environment, indigenous culture, inequality, elitism, entitlement, cruelty – and it’s clear we need real change.
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Yes Rex. On all these issues Labor leaves the Coalition streets behind. So, assessing what you write in a logical way, I still don’t understand your antipathy to Labor.
As for voting for one of the independents, as Zoomster points out, where among them is the path to real change? You can vote for an independent, or a Green or a Reason Party candidate if you wish, but make sure your preferences go to getting a Labor government elected.
Because that’s all there is Rex, either Labor or the Coalition. We can’t afford people interested in social justice hiding away in their bubbles dreaming of a perfect world.
zoomster @ #2086 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 5:34 pm
A realist looks at the outcomes of decades of the duopoly.
*rolls eyes* at the tired old trope, ‘Labor partisans’. 🙄
Clem – I hate to tell you this – I am published by commercial publishers – and I have since republished some of those books when the publishers went defunct (as do many authors nowadays).
I currently have 3 novels with commercial publishers – two of which are with an arm of Murdoch’s press (sorry to say, but he bought out the parent of Harlequin and Halrequin is one of the biggest).
And when I am not writing, I work as a university researcher at Sydney Uni. What is more I DO research policy of political parties – and don’t just post headlines taken from the Murdoch press or Lib party HQ.
Nath been taken off for overstepping the mark. An inquiry will be convened to investigate his suspect action
A Labor partisan would say that.
clem
No, it comes from people with expertise in various areas, as well as those who put in hours of research.
For example, I will sometimes comment on educational issues. When I do, it’s not just on the basis of having been a teacher; I’ve done a lot of reading about educational research, looked at the differences between our systems and those overseas, and read a range of material outlining the pros and cons of different approaches.
When I comment on water policy, it’s on the basis of over twenty years of talking to the experts, undertaking field trips, reading research material, and so on.
There are a lot of people who share their knowledge on this site, many with decades of experience in their particular field.
A whole lot more productive than occasionally popping up here to snark.
Jenauthor (Murdoch published…nearly)…as Wilde put it, “self regard is no recommendation.”
clem attlee @ #2082 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 1:34 pm
How patronising!
There is a wide range of knowledge and expertise here on PB and the debate often goes well beyond the content of news articles.
That’s one of the reasons the blog is so good.
Rex
OK, outline how electing an independent will result in real change within a reasonable time scale.
doG,
Please give us an opinion poll soon,
Or even a tiny piece of scuttlebutt
They are seriously locking horns again
Zoomster if you are such a stickler for research, why did you claim personal credit for an education policy that was never implemented? I’d say that shows that you ‘research background’ is deeply flawed.
“When I was a teenager, Whitlam inspired me to have an interest in politics.”
So … you joined the Greens … cause … Tampa (seemingly obvious to the obvious that Howard’s target always Labor and not the asylum seekers).
Facepalm.
But thanks for the preference votes … and for not being in the Labor Party.