BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

BludgerTrack returns from hibernation, albeit with only one new poll result to play with.

The return of Essential Research provided the BludgerTrack mill with its first grist for the new year, but the model is at its least robust when it only has one data point to play with after a long gap. This means BludgerTrack strongly follows the lead of a poll that was less bad for the Coalition than their usual form, resulting in a substantial reduction in Labor’s still commanding lead on two-party preferred. Labor is also down six on the seat projection – one in each mainland state and two in Queensland. The Essential poll also included a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and these produced a weak result for Bill Shorten that has blunted his recent improving trend. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,129 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  3. Scotty doesn’t worry about it being a voyage Cook did not make so why should I worry about it being on a ship he did not take ?

    At this rate, he’ll be recreating “Cook’s” last voyage on the Bounty.

  7. Shorten isn’t opposing the Captain Cook re-enactment apparently.

    Jeez their internals must be good. All the Libs have is trying to bait him into a culture war and hes’ just denying them a fight, much as he may or may not want one. If it was close or the internals weren’t good for Labor, you would think Shorten would be up for a stoush. Says a lot about where things stand imo.

  9. Dear Bill: Don’t let Bowen blow it

    ROBERT GOTTLIEBSEN
    Most ALP people now know that Chris has made a mistake. Please help him.

    The rich are starting to squeal on the loss of their tax loopholes.Sounds like they are getting desperate with this headline.

  10. sprocket_ @ #5561 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 1:23 pm

    Historical accuracy aside, do we really want to spend $48.7m on promoting this?

    Mr Morrison said the anniversary would give new generations an insight into Capt. Cook, his ship, and the experiences of Indigenous Australians.

    “We want to help Australians better understand Captain Cook’s historic voyage and its legacy for exploration, science, and reconciliation,” he said.

    The National Maritime Museum will get $7 million for the Endeavour replica’s circumnavigation of Australia.

    “That voyage is the reason Australia is what it is today and it’s important we take the opportunity to reflect on it.

    “We will ensure that Australians, young and old, see firsthand the legacy.”

    Funding for next year’s voyage will come from an existing $48.7 million package set aside for the anniversary.

    Mr Morrison told Cairns radio, the replica would repeat Cook’s circumnavigation.

    https://www.9news.com.au/2019/01/22/08/24/scott-morrison-outlines-year-of-celebration-to-mark-james-cooks-first-voyage-to-australia

    This is likely to be all about Cooktown – where Cook pranged the reef and had to careen the Endeavor to repair it. It’s a fair way north of Cairns, but ScumMo (BSc(Hon) Economic Geography UNSW)’s adherence to fact is flexible.

  12. Mundine doing Lib-Lab

    Rex, that makes no sense. He said he’s switched because he doesn’t agree with the policy direction of the ALP. If he believed that the parties were essentially the same on policy, there’d be no point in changing, and in particular to change to the side that’s on a downward slide?

  16. Surely the only sane explanation for this Mundine malarkey is that they hate him with a passion and want to burn him in a seat he’s going to cop a 10% swing in so they can tell him to piss off whenever he raises the matter of a seat in Parliament post the election.

    But then it is Morrison. Of course he’d think it was a good idea to piss off the local branches that have rolled their sitting member for someone else by forcing someone who ratted on Labor for no better reason than they wouldn’t give him a seat. If it had been to get a woman in then just maybe it could have worked (to minimise the loss), but this is a guarantee to ensure no locals are going to get off their arses to campaign in Gilmore.

    Plenty of Libs must be starting to think Dutton wouldn’t have been worse than this.

  17. Shorten isn’t opposing the Captain Cook re-enactment apparently.

    Yes, certain people’s derision @ Morrison here is premature.

    Entirely predictable. As is his bipartisan support for the $500 million expansion of the Australian War Memorial, a memorial that refuses to acknowledge the frontier wars but wants to include Border Force.

    Some might call it “clever politics”. I call it craven politics.

  18. They’re seeing the legacy first hand out on the Darling, once mighty. No need to sail around all tiketty booed up with flags in a replica bark.

    Morrison is such a superficial prick, really.

    Wilcannia used to be the second biggest port in the colony. (I don’t think I’m making that up, but can’t reference it).

    Resch started his brewing there, and while it’s a few years since I’ve been there, the remains of the heavy wooden docks where the steamers were loaded were still visible. The standard of public building is superior, as befitting a place of prosperity. Now it’s all boarded, and security grilled, a sad place of alcohol and drug abuse, and a dying/dead river, the legacy.

  19. rossmcg

    Again people are laughing at Morrison.
    Just as they started to laugh at Abbott.

    Yes, criticism is one thing, but when you just become a figure of fun as Morrison has, it is the end.

    I believe Morrison has still not reached Peak Stupid.

  20. I’m just waiting for the Liberals to promise a monument to the Good Ship Lollipop to try and win the kiddies’ parents vote. 😐

  22. caf
    says:
    Tuesday, January 22, 2019 at 1:24 pm
    mikehilliard:
    What is it with the LNP’s infatuation with Cptn Cook?
    _________________________
    I think it’s the same they had with Simpson and his Donkey when Nelson was leader, i.e, white guys didn’t just murder aborigines they also did cool shit like sail ships around wearing wigs and peering through telescopes.

  26. The rich are starting to squeal on the loss of their tax loopholes.Sounds like they are getting desperate with this headline.

    hahahahaha, the desperation could be detected in the next galaxy.

    We’re now up to pleading.

    Poor Gottliebsen, shilling for the 0.1% just ain’t so easy anymore is it mate? And let’s face it, Ernie Dingo is a better Robert Gottliebsen than Gottliebsen. It would be soul destroying if he hadn’t sold it so long ago.

  27. Mavis Smith

    I swear I hadn’t seen that before. I was going on what I have read about her, especially as she began to lose her memory.

    BTW I have never read a “Barbara Cartland”.

  34. Technically speaking Cook did circumnavigate Australia (NZ) if you rely on the Australian constitution refering to NZ as a state of Australia…..

  35. Pegasus says:
    Tuesday, January 22, 2019 at 1:44 pm
    Shorten isn’t opposing the Captain Cook re-enactment apparently.
    Yes, certain people’s derision @ Morrison here is premature.

    Entirely predictable. As is his bipartisan support for the $500 million expansion of the Australian War Memorial, a memorial that refuses to acknowledge the frontier wars but wants to include Border Force.

    Some might call it “clever politics”. I call it craven politics.

    _____________________________________

    I very much doubt Shorten cares what you call it.

    Whether or not it is ‘clever politics’, the simple fact is that the Coalition has nothing but starting more culture wars left in the policy tank. Refusing to engage in them will allow Labor to press ahead with the major changes needed to reverse the trauma of the past five years and start setting Australia a course for a sustainable future. While that course may not be along the direct path and at the speed that Greens supporters want, it is Labor steering and powering the ship, with the Greens as upmarket passengers complaining endlessly about the poor views and the slow speed, but with no idea of what is involved.

  36. Maybe Morrison could command the replica Endeavour on its Voyage of “Rediscovery” in 2020?

    Then they can strike the perfectly named “Endeavour Reef” just south of Cooktown (yes that annoying Great Barrier Reef – what is it good for?). After the ship breaks free with a piece of coral wedged in the hull and they beach it on the bank of the Endeavour River in Cooktown, Morrison can lead a party into the adjoining rainforest and recreate Cook’s discovery of the Southern Cassowary (fake news, species already discovered before 1770).

    What could possibly go wrong?

  38. Abigail Boyd, NSW Upper House candidate and a corporate and finance lawyer, specialising in global banking regulation:

    https://greens.org.au/nsw/person/abigail-boyd

    Abigail is committed to economic reform as being vital to the success of the green movement: “Until we change the way Australians think about the economy, and unpick the economic myths successive governments have pedaled in the interests of big business and the very wealthy, our goals will be that much harder to achieve. Meaningful action on global warming and reduction of wealth inequality will only be possible once we get corporations out of our democracy and challenge the economic dogma that is obsessed with putting profit ahead of people.”

    A longer article by Boyd – Why the status quo is incompatible with progressive economics:
    https://greens.org.au/magazine/why-status-quo-incompatible-progressive-economics

  41. ItzaDream,

    Nearly right. Wikipedia says Wilcannia was the third largest inland port in the country during the great riverboat era of the 19th Century.
    Interestingly, (or not!), my late husband’s grandmother was governess in Wilcannia to Resch’s children in the late 19th C.

  42. nath:

    [‘I think Mavis has lost a lot of street cred with the Barbara Cartland revelation.’]

    I thought it time to out myself, feeling so much less constrained in the process.

  45. Australians are likely to vote within the next three years on whether Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples should have a First Nations Voice to Parliament, as proposed in the Uluru Statement from the Heart. Supported by his party’s Aboriginal MPs, Patrick Dodson, Linda Burney and Malarndirri McCarthy, opposition leader Bill Shorten has signalled very clearly that this is Labor’s priority for constitutional reform. Indeed, just last week he confirmed that it would be pursued before a plebiscite on whether Australia should move to a republic.

    That just highlights how superficial Morrison is, slight, duplicitous, with his view from the shore bullshit.

    Read on
    https://insidestory.org.au/looking-forward-to-constitutional-reform-by-looking-back-at-uluru/

  47. TPOF @ #2632 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 1:56 pm

    Pegasus says:
    Tuesday, January 22, 2019 at 1:44 pm
    Shorten isn’t opposing the Captain Cook re-enactment apparently.
    Yes, certain people’s derision @ Morrison here is premature.

    Entirely predictable. As is his bipartisan support for the $500 million expansion of the Australian War Memorial, a memorial that refuses to acknowledge the frontier wars but wants to include Border Force.

    Some might call it “clever politics”. I call it craven politics.

    _____________________________________

    I very much doubt Shorten cares what you call it.

    Whether or not it is ‘clever politics’, the simple fact is that the Coalition has nothing but starting more culture wars left in the policy tank. Refusing to engage in them will allow Labor to press ahead with the major changes needed to reverse the trauma of the past five years and start setting Australia a course for a sustainable future. While that course may not be along the direct path and at the speed that Greens supporters want, it is Labor steering and powering the ship, with the Greens as upmarket passengers complaining endlessly about the poor views and the slow speed, but with no idea of what is involved.

    While Lib-Lab indulge in nostalgia…

    The $6.7 million the government is spending on a replica Captain Cook voyage that never actually happened would fund the Aboriginal Legal Service's life-saving Custody Notification Service for nearly 14 years in one state.— Denham Sadler (@denhamsadler) January 22, 2019

    Decades of duopoly Govt has crushed the indigenous culture.

  48. TPOF

    And you wonder why people don’t trust politicians. The perception they are not being upfront about their agendas poisons the well.

    What to believe they will do; what to believe they will not do. Who knows.

    As the decrease in the major party vote , and survey after survey results demonstrate, the majority of the populace are desperate for strong and honest leadership, leadership that has a long-term vision to address some of the most pressing issues of our time.

    TPOF

    Do note – it is easy to respond without an ad hominem.

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