Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

In the first new poll of the year, both major parties are up on the primary vote, yet their leaders’ disapproval ratings have shot upwards.

Essential Research is back in business, its first poll for the new year no change on Labor’s 53-47 lead in the final poll last year. Both major parties are on 38% on the primary votes, which is a two-point improvement for Labor and a one-point improvement for the Coalition. Minor party primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. In a spirit of seasonal goodwill, monthly leadership ratings find both leaders well up on disapproval – by five points in Morrison’s case to 39%, and four in Shorten’s case to 47% – while Morrison is up one on approval to 42% and Shorten is unchanged on 35%.

As related by The Guardian, further questions mostly focused on the recent far right rally in St Kilda, the most interesting finding being that 48% thought Scott Morrison “demonstrated poor leadership by not immediately condemning the rally, and those who attended it, in stronger terms”, compared with 36% who disagreed. Only 22% thought it appropriate for Senator Fraser Anning to “use taxpayer money to attend the rally”, with 66% saying it was appropriate; 74% felt there was ”no place in Australian society for the use of racist and fascist symbols used by participants in the rally”, whereas 17% were apparently all in favour of them; and that 73% nonetheless felt that “Australians have the right to peacefully protest, no matter how extreme their views”, while 19% didn’t.

The poll also find 63% support for pill testing, although the question was very particular about the specifics, specifying circumstances in which “trained counsellors provide risk-reduction advice informed by on-site laboratory analysis of people’s drugs”.

UPDATE: Full report here. The Greens are down a point to 10%, and One Nation are steady on 7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,042 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. poroti @ #1545 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 9:18 am

    DTT

    BUT in the UK in particular it was fear of Russian inspired communism that allowed Europe to tolerate and maintain core things like the NHS and the welfare state.

    wRONg. I listened to a very informative interview of JK Galbraith. He explained that the motivation for the Welfare State in post war Europe was to prevent the poverty that saw people attracted to extreme politics be it left or right. He was there when it was being discussed/planned.

    One thing that stuck out was the motivation. He reckoned that rather than being concern for the workers/poor it was the European ‘elites’ wanting to prevent a repeat of the destruction of so much of their wealth in WWII. Pretty much total destruction if you were behind the Iron Curtain.

    Poroti
    Sorry i put it badly. i was actually trying to say just what you wrote much more elegantly than i did.

    I mean there are always several elements in any political/social change. i am sure that the true believers of the British labor party were not forced by Russia but were inspired a little by them as well as by Australia and their own Fabian/socialist traditions.

    But I think it was fear of the spread of communism/aka Russia that allowed the elites to tolerate and even promote the post war welfare reforms (an possibly even the new Deal but this is a bit of a stretch).

  2. Confessions @ #1541 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 9:12 am

    Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    3h3 hours ago
    Front page of today’s @australian. Latest data supports Fitch’s concerns last week re economic growth dipping. #auspol

    ” rel=”nofollow”>:large

    I’m pleased that the third word in that article is “losing”. I remember when everyone, including some ‘professional’ journalists, was writing “loosing”. It was an obnoxious time. Glad it’s over.

  3. An object lesson about context:

    “that Russia no longer exists” is what BiGD wrote (i.e., the Russia that influenced Vietnamese communism).

    DTT, instead of going back to the original goes to the quote extracted by SK for a different purpose, so she responds to this:

    “Russia no longer exists and is no longer relevant to today above being a cautionary tail from past.”

    Amazing what a difference a single word makes. No wonder politicians have to be so careful with language that they finish up never saying anything worthwhile.

  4. It is the largest exporter of wheat in the world.

    Depends on the year.
    Safer to say it is in the top 4 with US, Canada and Australia.

    And I would say Russia has some other significant weaknesses over population density.

  5. poroti @ #1544 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 10:18 am

    DTT

    BUT in the UK in particular it was fear of Russian inspired communism that allowed Europe to tolerate and maintain core things like the NHS and the welfare state.

    wRONg. I listened to a very informative interview of JK Galbraith. He explained that the motivation for the Welfare State in post war Europe was to prevent the poverty that saw people attracted to extreme politics be it left or right. He was there when it was being discussed/planned.

    One thing that stuck out was the motivation. He reckoned that rather than being concern for the workers/poor it was the European ‘elites’ wanting to prevent a repeat of the destruction of so much of their wealth in WWII. Pretty much total destruction if you were behind the Iron Curtain.

    Thanks for that.
    Does that mean – could it mean – that our natural born killers overlords do not love we – the great unwashed.
    I must begin practicing my air of self loathing to day. Would a couple of hours a day do it ❓

  6. A contentious local issue involving the power of lobbyists and state government intervention to allow commercial horse training on public land consisting of a fragile environment with cultural heritage significance:

    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/horse-racing-kicks-sand-in-the-face-of-levys-beach,12279

    Commercial horse training will return to Levy’s Beach, after the planning minister intervened in the controversial decision and amended the law. The practise was previously found to be illegal under Warrnambool city’s planning scheme.
    :::
    After the Victorian State Election, Planning Minister Richard Wynne spared no time in writing a letter to WCC, urging them to allow racehorse training on the beaches upon request of the racing industry. Council responded by holding an emergency meeting on the Friday evening before Christmas, their last working day of the year. If the Council’s plan was to avoid notice, it failed: so many turned up to the meeting that it had to be moved to the theatre.

  9. TPOF @ #1553 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 9:26 am

    An object lesson about context:

    “that Russia no longer exists” is what BiGD wrote (i.e., the Russia that influenced Vietnamese communism).

    DTT, instead of going back to the original goes to the quote extracted by SK for a different purpose, so she responds to this:

    “Russia no longer exists and is no longer relevant to today above being a cautionary tail from past.”

    Amazing what a difference a single word makes. No wonder politicians have to be so careful with language that they finish up never saying anything worthwhile.

    TPOF

    Since Simon did not include the attribution I was not able to find who wrote the original silly statement, but assumed Simon concurred in part.

    Either way the comment, was silly as is yours.

    Every bloody country/empire/religion that ever existed still does exist in part, albeit diluted.

    First let us take the Vietnam comment

    most of the people who forged links between the USSR and Vietnam are still alive, even if older so it is truly thick headed to say no longer relevant. Even if it is only education and friendships and some Russian language those links still exist and will do so for at least a generation.

    Then let us be more general.

    The England of Elizabeth I still exists in part influencing today although we no longer see an absolute monarch. The original Russian empire ie the tsarists one is still exerting its influence, as are the Ottomans, Bismark, Lutherans, Romans and a host of others. Gee even the ancient Celtic religions and Norse sagas still influence us. They EXIST

  10. Pegasus @ #1559 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 6:31 am

    A contentious local issue involving the power of lobbyists and state government intervention to allow commercial horse training on public land consisting of a fragile environment with cultural heritage significance:

    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/horse-racing-kicks-sand-in-the-face-of-levys-beach,12279

    Commercial horse training will return to Levy’s Beach, after the planning minister intervened in the controversial decision and amended the law. The practise was previously found to be illegal under Warrnambool city’s planning scheme.
    :::
    After the Victorian State Election, Planning Minister Richard Wynne spared no time in writing a letter to WCC, urging them to allow racehorse training on the beaches upon request of the racing industry. Council responded by holding an emergency meeting on the Friday evening before Christmas, their last working day of the year. If the Council’s plan was to avoid notice, it failed: so many turned up to the meeting that it had to be moved to the theatre.

    Where is the State Government intervention?

    Intervention would be changing the law and imposing it on them. 🙂

  11. Dr. Dena Grayson
    Dr. Dena Grayson
    @DrDenaGrayson
    ·
    4h
    Apparently,
    @MittRomney
    no longer thinks that #Russiaposes a threat, given his vote to DROP #sanctions on Oleg Deripaska’s companies.

    Paul Manafort was bankrolled by Deripaska (and others) to install pro-#Russiaofficials in former Soviet-bloc countries.

    #ComplicitGOP
    Quote Tweet
    Kenneth P. Vogel
    @kenvogel
    BREAKING: Senate GOP defeats Dem measure to enforce sanctions against companies controlled by Russian oligarch OLEG DERIPASKA.
    Dems needed 60 votes, only got 57, even after GOP defections.
    Sanctions now all but certain to be lifted this week pursuant to TRUMP administration deal.

  12. Since Simon did not include the attribution I was not able to find who wrote the original silly statement, but assumed Simon concurred in part.

    Make an ass out of yourself if you must but dont add me to the mix. I just took the golden opportunity to correct the English of an English teacher (which was taken in the jest it was intended as, well, we all know how poor my English is).

  14. DTT

    “Either way the comment, was silly as is yours.”

    _______________________________________
    No doubt, not being a goldfish, you nurse a long ago grievance about something I called you.

    But this is a classic example of what others were complaining about yesterday about you being supercilious and arrogant in your responses. I don’t think my comment was ‘silly’, but that was a completely unnecessary put-down and unwarranted by what I wrote, which was accurate, about how the word ‘that’ can make all the difference in context.

  15. He should really retire and piss off

    The Age
    The Age
    @theage
    ·
    3m
    Ex-PM
    @TonyAbbottMHR
    has been accused of lacking a “basic grasp of economics” and being “embarrassing” after attempting to intervene in the Brexit crisis

    ‘You are embarrassing’: Tony Abbott slapped down over Brexit claim
    theage.com.au

  18. TPOF @ #1564 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 9:44 am

    DTT

    “Either way the comment, was silly as is yours.”

    _______________________________________
    No doubt, not being a goldfish, you nurse a long ago grievance about something I called you.

    But this is a classic example of what others were complaining about yesterday about you being supercilious and arrogant in your responses. I don’t think my comment was ‘silly’, but that was a completely unnecessary put-down and unwarranted by what I wrote, which was accurate, about how the word ‘that’ can make all the difference in context.

    TPOF

    And you do not understand that your comment was offensive to ME. it was a rude and unecessay put down.
    Now perhaps I misinterpreted you but i took your comment as a nasty put down of me, so why are you surprised that i called your comment silly. if you did not mean it then apologise to me and i will in very good spirit and with sincerity apologise to you.

    Not to barney because he is rude to me so many times he hads long since lost the right for me to pretend to be polite.

  20. And you do not understand that your comment was offensive to ME. it was a rude and unecessay put down.

    _______________________________

    Actually, the post was a point about context and how a single word missing at the beginning or end of a quote can make something read quite differently. Perhaps you could consider not being so sensitive.

  22. TPOF @ #1570 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 9:53 am

    And you do not understand that your comment was offensive to ME. it was a rude and unecessay put down.

    _______________________________

    Actually, the post was a point about context and how a single word missing at the beginning or end of a quote can make something read quite differently. Perhaps you could consider not being so sensitive.

    Fair enough TPOF, but you must accept that as a poster i am perpetually under attack and have every reason to assume you and others are being rude. Perhaps i should not be so sensitive but it is so regular that i have good reason to assume abuse – especially where Barney is in the mix.

  23. Vanuatu presents @ScottMorrisonMP with a tribal carving reserved for venerated chiefs, in return their President is gifted a signed @Kangaroos jersey, enabling our PM to opine about league. “This is a subject very close to the heart of Australians”

    Very few people outside Qld and NSW would know what a “Kangaroo jersey” is. Morrison is very narrow in his perspective of what Australians think and feel.

  24. I dont know why people bother being offended by other posters. You dont know them. They dont know you. They arent important to you. Their opinions really shouldnt matter to you.

    I sometimes write stupid stuff. Sometimes I write what I think is good stuff based on a lot of experience, study and consideration and it gets called stupid. When this happens I may choose to defend the post and try not to respond to the name calling – mainly because being called ‘stupid’ or whatever by an anonymous poster just doesn’t have any weight. I may also choose to not reply at all. I mean, WGAF.

    As I have said to DTT before, I like to read your posts when you keep them to the point. I may not agree with you but a contrary and even contrarian view on this blog is welcome.

  25. https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/act/heat-stressed-possum-helped-to-cool-down-as-canberra-starts-to-swelter-20190115-p50re6.html

    The possum was grateful for a big bowl of water and a peach to help cool down in the heat.

    When 😇Murray 😇got home from work, he found the possum lying on its back in his shed before it scampered up under the hot tin roof.

    “She is the regular thief of our peaches, so I know that’s a favourite kind of dish,” he said.

    Wot, no cream ❗ 😎

  26. Russia is now back in tsarist mode – predatory, authoritarian, reactionary – run by murderers on behalf of state-supported oligarchs.

  27. Greg Brown
    ‏@gregbrown_TheOz
    48m48 minutes ago

    Lower-skilled Fijians will be allowed to work in rural and regional Australia in a new soft power overture to the Pacific nation, which is being courted by China as a potential ally #auspol

  32. 100 years ag0 , the good old days for the US. Alot seems familiar.
    .
    .
    How the Klan Fueled Prohibition

    On Jan. 16, 1919, Nebraska became the 36th state to ratify the 18th Amendment to the Constitution, which banned the manufacture, sale, import or transportation of intoxicating liquors. The Prohibition era had begun.

    While the country faced a real problem of excessive drinking, powerful anti-immigrant hostility is what drove this monumental act of constitutional overreach……………………the Klan targeted the drinking of those they identified as enemies of “100 percent Americanism” — Catholics, foreigners and African-Americans — and often gained a foothold in white Protestant evangelical communities with its promise to put bootleggers and moonshiners out of business.
    https://outline.com/rPA7SJ

  33. Fozzie Logic

    God, zanetti is a shit head
    ________________________________

    I won’t copy the cartoon, but I think he is an early entrant for arsehole of the year based on that. How cruel for the family.

  37. Peter Stanton @ #1573 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 10:57 am

    Vanuatu presents @ScottMorrisonMP with a tribal carving reserved for venerated chiefs, in return their President is gifted a signed @Kangaroos jersey, enabling our PM to opine about league. “This is a subject very close to the heart of Australians”

    Very few people outside Qld and NSW would know what a “Kangaroo jersey” is. Morrison is very narrow in his perspective of what Australians think and feel.

    And only a small percentage (< 50%) in NSW at least, even follow the "league". To me it always looks like live public male buggery ugh 😯

  39. @bengrubb tweets

    Can it be? A mature discussion about changing the date of Australia Day celebrations on a morning show https://twitter.com/TheTodayShow/status/1085644578487586816

    @TheTodayShow

    “This is the best country in the world no doubt. But I can’t separate the 26th of January from the fact that my brothers are more likely to go to jail than they are to go to school” says @BoneyBrooke, a proud Gamilaroi woman. #9Today https://twitter.com/TheTodayShow/status/1085644578487586816/video/1

  42. Ian Plimer demonstrating that he is a deceitful and disingenous fool in the Austalian …

    https://outline.com/98dZPq

    It is often claimed that 97 per cent of scientists conclude that humans are causing global warming. Is that really true? No. It is a zombie statistic.

    In the scientific circles I mix in, there is an overwhelming scepticism about human-induced climate change. Many of my colleagues claim that the mantra of human-induced global warming is the biggest scientific fraud of all time and future generations will pay dearly.

    First of all, it is not “97% of scientists“. It is “97% of climate scientists”. Of which Plimer is definitely not one. He is a geologist – the scientific discipline with perhaps the largest amount of research funding from fossil fuel companies. No wonder many of his colleagues profess to not believe in climate change 🙁

    The article gets worse from there. Plimer is an embarrassment to himself, to his colleagues, and to the whole scientific community. He is himself a zombie – dead from the neck up.

    For anyone who wants some actual facts on the matter, they are here …

    https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus-intermediate.htm

  44. Ex-RNC chair says ‘it’s all collusion’ for GOP senators defending Russian oligarch for Trump administration

    Former Republican National Committee chair Micheal Steele slammed Republican senators for joining Donald Trump’s conspiracy with Russia by filibustering a bill to keep sanctions on Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska.

    Melber asked if this was “collusiony” or Republican loyalty.

    “It’s all collusion,” Steele replied. “It’s all collusion, in my estimation, if you’re taking these steps, the facts as we now see them being laid out and you’re going to slow the roll legislatively, then you’re now a part of the narrative just as much as anyone else is as far as I’m concerned.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/ex-rnc-chair-says-collusion-gop-senators-defending-russian-oligarch-trump-administration/

  45. Aunt Crabby calls Bullshit ‏ @DearAuntCrabby

    So let’s recap, the president of the United States says that ISIS is defeated. Then ISIS kills four members of the American Military to prove they are still active.

    Question: How complicit is @realDonaldTrump in the murder of these brave American soliders?

  48. guytaur @ #1586 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 10:33 am

    Good Morning

    All I will say on Russia is the cold war is over. Though Putin does seem to want to restart it. 🙂

    Guytaur
    It takes two to start a new cold war and it is the US that has imposed sanctions which are the forerunner to cold war. There is always fault on both sides but when someone who is often rational can with a straight face blame Putin for the cold war when it is the USA that is imposing sanctions is breathtaking. It is also trump who wishes to withdraw from the mid range treaty and the USA which has put missiles close to the Russian borders.

    Now you may well belive that they are paranoid, but there is absolutely no question that the russian government genuinely fears that the USA will attack with nuclear weapons. that is why they hold mass nuclear war drill still.

    So i think the cold war has restarted but i am not sure it is so one sided that you can say Putin started it. It is just great power politics and the major players jostle for position. There are now however three major players (USA, China, Russia) and a number of significant others (Turkey, UK, rest of EU, Iran, India, Pakistan, Israel) most with nukes.

  49. phoenixRED @ #1595 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 10:50 am

    Question: How complicit is @realDonaldTrump in the murder of these brave American soliders?

    I like maths questions. I think the answer is ‘however complicit Hillary was in the Benghazi deaths’, times 1000.

    An emboldened enemy is the predictable outcome of 1) prematurely declaring “victory” for cheap domestic policical points, and 2) publicly announcing your withdrawal plans and timetable to the world.

  50. DTT

    Its Russia that is the aggressor.

    I deplore a lot of actions of the USA but its streets ahead of Russia on issues like human rights.

    I have no defence of Russian paranoia as espoused by Putin. The Chief Oligarch of the Kakosticracy

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