Essential Research is back in business, its first poll for the new year no change on Labor’s 53-47 lead in the final poll last year. Both major parties are on 38% on the primary votes, which is a two-point improvement for Labor and a one-point improvement for the Coalition. Minor party primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. In a spirit of seasonal goodwill, monthly leadership ratings find both leaders well up on disapproval – by five points in Morrison’s case to 39%, and four in Shorten’s case to 47% – while Morrison is up one on approval to 42% and Shorten is unchanged on 35%.
As related by The Guardian, further questions mostly focused on the recent far right rally in St Kilda, the most interesting finding being that 48% thought Scott Morrison “demonstrated poor leadership by not immediately condemning the rally, and those who attended it, in stronger terms”, compared with 36% who disagreed. Only 22% thought it appropriate for Senator Fraser Anning to “use taxpayer money to attend the rally”, with 66% saying it was appropriate; 74% felt there was ”no place in Australian society for the use of racist and fascist symbols used by participants in the rally”, whereas 17% were apparently all in favour of them; and that 73% nonetheless felt that “Australians have the right to peacefully protest, no matter how extreme their views”, while 19% didn’t.
The poll also find 63% support for pill testing, although the question was very particular about the specifics, specifying circumstances in which “trained counsellors provide risk-reduction advice informed by on-site laboratory analysis of people’s drugs”.
UPDATE: Full report here. The Greens are down a point to 10%, and One Nation are steady on 7%.
TPOF @ #1588 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 10:38 am
Good read. Thanks.
DaretoTread @ #1548 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 10:20 am
As usual, simply wrong, from DTT, Dunning-Kruger example par excellence.
http://www.worldstopexports.com/wheat-exports-country/
Wheat Exports by Country
January 10, 2019 by Daniel Workman
Below are the 15 countries that exported the highest dollar value worth of wheat during 2017:
United States: US$6.1 billion (15.7% of total wheat exports)
Russia: $5.8 billion (14.8%)
Canada: $5.1 billion (13%)
Australia: $4.7 billion (11.9%)
France: $3 billion (7.7%)
Ukraine: $2.8 billion (7.1%)
Argentina: $2.4 billion (6.1%)
Germany: $1.6 billion (4.1%)
Romania: $1.1 billion (2.9%)
Bulgaria: $772.7 million (2%)
Kazakhstan: $660.8 million (1.7%)
Lithuania: $604.4 million (1.5%)
Hungary: $591.9 million (1.5%)
Poland: $538.9 million (1.4%)
Czech Republic: $479.9 million (1.2%)
KayJay @ #1575 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 11:10 am
I just put out a few old apples for my guys and there’s always water around. Bugger the mosquito larvae! Maybe they like them too! 🙂
poroti @ #1590 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 10:39 am
He getting rid of the mirrors in his house?
Plimer:
“In the scientific circles I mix in, there is an overwhelming scepticism about human-induced climate change. ”
Self-sorting. Birds of a feather. Etc etc.
I’ve heard HIV-deniers say much the same thing (i.e. those “scientists” who claim that HIV doesn’t exist, or is a harmless virus that doesn’t cause AIDS). You know, along the lines of “In the scientific circles I mix in, there is an overwhelming scepticism about the alleged link between HIV and AIDS.”
P1
The key phrase was…….
Player One @ #1592 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 10:47 am
And he totally misrepresents what science is. Science is all about doubt, not certainty. Science looks very hard at and promotes doubt in order to reduce it. There will never be 100% anything in science, that is for other belief systems. If that is his shtick then “deceitful and disingenuous fool” would seem to cover it.
The Russians, Iranians, Venezuelans, Qataris, Cubans and lots of others may deserve economic sanctions of one kind or another for a multitude of ‘crimes’ according to Western (i.e. US) democracies; but, there is no doubt that many of these same democracies also deserve economic sanctions applied to them for some of their deplorable actions over the past decade or two.
Unfortunately there is no nation strong enough (or willing enough) to impose them.
C@tmomma
Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 12:03 pm
Comment #1602
👍🐨 Sorry – Gold Possum Stamps out of stock.
yabba @ #1602 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 11:02 am
Yabba
I am not going to argue the point because it is pretty trivial and irrelevant, give nhe issue was “does russia exist”.
Moreover i should not need to remind someone who is in mensa that there is both VOLUME and dollar value to consider. So I do not think the issue important enough to to follow up but i assume since you have told me off that you will do the necessary research.
The thing that first upset me about these figures was the realisation that Russian exports were higher than those of Australia. As a solid Australian patriot, this upset all my notions of Australian greatness and has made me sad.
Kakuru @ #1608 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 8:06 am
How do they find a venue big enough?
Song for the day.
https://youtu.be/zegEZL8Tx-0
In a New Idea exclusive, PM Morrison proudly shows off his new office :
When It Comes to Trump and Russia, Should We Apply Hanlon’s Razor or Occam’s?
It’s getting harder to believe that this can be explained by stupidity rather than malice.
I’ve been thinking a lot lately about “Hanlon’s Razor,” and how it might apply to recent revelations about Donald Trump and Russia. Hanlon’s Razor is a common sense aphorism that reminds us, “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.” It is a distant cousin of the more famous Occam’s Razor, which postulated that simpler explanations are more likely to be correct than complex and convoluted theories.
So, the question I’ve been asking is whether Hanlon’s Razor can be applied to the question of Trump’s bizarre romance with Vladimir Putin. Is it malice? Or stupidity? Is his fawning appeasement a sign that he is a Russian asset or a credulous dupe?
there are really only two plausible explanations for all of this: (1) Donald Trump is a witting tool of Russia, either from conviction or because of some, as yet unknown, kompromat, or (2) he is a naive fool whose vanity blinds him to the depths of his ignorance and recklessness.
Hanlon’s Razor suggests it is the latter, But, as the evidence mounts, perhaps Occam’s Razor is more on point: Maybe Trump’s servility to Russia is precisely what it appears to be.
https://thebulwark.com/when-it-comes-to-trump-and-russia-should-we-apply-hanlons-razor-or-occams/
Thanks, KayJay. 🙂
We have to look after the critters, native and not, who wear fur coats around in summer. 🙁
Donald performing for Vladimir
booleanbach @12:12pm
Hear hear.
Probably karma is imposing the sanctions on USA, UK and other western countries now.
The cold war is over but Wallerstines World System is not (ducks, runs for a coffee and hides somewhere cool). The entrenched powers continue to find new ways to further entrench their standing at the expense and exploitation of others.
Having said that, regardless of the external pressures, expecting an orderly transition from the Soviet Era to a free, just and democratic Russia was overly hopeful. The hurdles Russia had to jump and still have to jump were/are many.
The international order, regardless of feel good liberal institutions and ideas of interdependence, is still one of cold hard realism (or a funky descendent of it).
Demonstrative adjectives:
These are a form of determiner used to help indicate the relative position of a thing/s that we are talking about.
The singular forms are;
this:- for something near to the speaker,
and
that:- for a thing away from them.
The plural forms are;
these:- for things near to the speaker,
and
those:- for things away from them.
They can be used to express not only distance, but time as well.
Hope that helps! 🙂
phoenixRED @ #1614 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 11:21 am
Not really. There’s too much you’d have to overlook to blame it on mere stupidity and/or fawning idol worship. Like the secret meetings and meeting notes being snatched at Trump’s request (and/or by Trump, personally). Or that weird soccer-ball meeting with an obviously defeated Trump. And just how hard Russia is winning at basically everything right now.
A stupid person doesn’t surround himself with lawyers. A stupid person doesn’t avoid sitting down with Mueller at all costs.
42 Republican Senators (and Bernie Sanders, effectively) didn’t just vote to lift sanctions because Trump is stupid. They did it because Russia is smart.
Maybe someone could explain to Josh how income tax deductions work. I bet his accountant works the magic for him.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/meet-the-48-millionaires-who-pay-no-income-tax-not-even-the-medicare-levy-20170419-gvnkxh.html
SK
Yes. Democracy starts with trust in the system.
Too many coups and the US was lax in its condemnation and point out that was not democracy letting the vested interests get a foothold.
Not the first time its happened either. The UK has had a better record of establishing democracies. Even though it has generally been by colonisation which has many many downsides.
Thats why the paranoia of the Russians about the West is exactly that. The West had the opportunity to invade and colonise when the USSR collapsed. No I am not saying it would have been sensible to do it. It would have cost many lives in a violent war and risked nuclear war in my view as a result but the opportunity was there.
It is amazing how quickly my eyes glazed over and I started thinking about donuts.
Connie F-W has been a stalking horse before, now this… watch your back, Scotty
A Liberal senator and former minister for the Pacific has broken ranks with the Morrison Government and publicly blasted the Prime Minister for saddling countries in the South Pacific with additional debt at a time when several are struggling to repay already massive loans.
Australia will provide $2 billion in fresh grants and long-term loans for infrastructure programs
Some South Pacific countries already have debt to GDP ratios of up to 90 per cent
Ms Fierravanti-Wells was minister for international development and the Pacific from 2016-2018
New South Wales senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells criticised Prime Minister Scott Morrison in an opinion piece published in the Sydney Morning Herald yesterday, saying a new $2 billion infrastructure fund was simply “debt-trap diplomacy”.
“Let’s be clear. A loan is a loan. It needs to be repaid. Given the Pacific’s debt is already about $5.5 billion, including $2 billion to the Asian Development Bank and World Bank, and $1.5 billion to Beijing, why are we even contemplating saddling our neighbours with debt?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-17/australia-loading-south-pacific-countries-with-debt-liberal-says/10722316
Simon² Katich® @ #1626 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 8:44 am
You started it! 😆
Simon² Katich® @ #1618 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 11:31 am
Simon
The Cold war is hot again. It is actually going more strongly than in the Reagan years, but the main difference which will shock most of you is that it is no longer a foregone conclusion that the USA and allies will win.
https://www.zdnet.com/article/over-87gb-of-email-address-and-passwords-exposed-in-collection-1-dump/?ftag=TREc64629f&bhid=23018691761507658139408756183314
Extraordinarily, the biggest deduction claimed by 19 of the 48 was “cost of managing tax affairs”, averaging about $1.07 million each.
And guess who has a policy to limit just that? 🙂
a r says: Thursday, January 17, 2019 at 12:35 pm
phoenixRED @ #1614 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 11:21 am
Hanlon’s Razor suggests it is the latter
Not really. There’s too much you’d have to overlook to blame it on mere stupidity and/or fawning idol worship. Like the secret meetings and meeting notes being snatched at Trump’s request (and/or by Trump, personally). Or that weird soccer-ball meeting with an obviously defeated Trump. And just how hard Russia is winning at basically everything right now.
****************************************************
I don’t disagree with your thoughts a r – but the alternative – that the President of the United States is an active and witting Russian agent is just too dreadful to contemplate……it defies all of us who were brought up in the Cold War era as to such an unbelievable act of treason this would be …… but as Charlie Sykes finished in that article I posted – as the evidence mounts – Maybe Trump’s servility to Russia is precisely what it appears to be.
It is Rex who is anti-democratic.
He desires a vague and unintelligible “will of the people” which he (and other scoundrels) can interpret to mean almost anything at all, and thereby pursue his agenda whilst claiming some sort of democratic imprimatur.
That is, always was and always shall be the preferred approach of the demagogue
I will tell you what is hot right now…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jhc6CRgwkqg
You just have to look at the photos of Trump when he is with Putin. Servile as.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/17/it-just-hasnt-rained-michael-mccormack-blames-drought-for-murray-darling-fish-kill
funny how the Nats never say “it just hasn’t rained” when drought stricken farmers plead for help.
Meanwhile in Chechnya
@ChrisEvans tweets
This is absolutely insane. Please read. https://twitter.com/billyeichner/status/1085296589483044865
@billyeichner
Here’s another article about the gay purge happening in Chechnya. Please read it, it’s horrifying. And here’s a place to donate to help these men: https://help.lgbtnet.org/chechnya-en
https://n.pr/2H8pcTM https://n.pr/2H8pcTM
Trump’s border wall shutdown is a ‘dumb 2020 strategy’: Poll expert Nate Silver
Statistician Nate Silver suggested President Donald Trump is telegraphing a “dumb 2020 strategy” by shutting down the government in an attempt to get U.S. taxpayers to foot the bill for the border wall he had promised Mexico would fund
“As of early Wednesday evening, his approval rating was 40.2 percent, according to our tracking of public polling, down from 42.2 percent on Dec. 21, the day before the shutdown began,” he noted. “It’s his lowest score since last September. And Trump’s disapproval rating was 54.8 percent, up from 52.7 percent before the shutdown.”
“Trump’s approval ratings had been steady at about 42 percent for several months before the shutdown. Since then, they’ve been declining at a fairly linear rate of about half a point for every week that the shutdown has been underway, while his disapproval rating has increased by half a point per week,” he explained.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/trumps-border-wall-shutdown-dumb-2020-strategy-poll-expert-nate-silver/
Michael Cohen fears his family may be attacked over Trump’s angry rhetoric: report
People close to former Trump attorney Michael Cohen say he fears for the safety of his family as the president publicly targets him.
Sources that spoke to ABC News said that he’s expressed to his friends “concern that Trump’s heated rhetoric on television and Twitter could incite an unstable person to target him or his family.”
He has taken to wondering if his scheduled public testimony before Congress is such a good idea after all, the sources told ABC, casting doubt on whether he will go through with it.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/michael-cohen-fears-family-may-attacked-trumps-angry-rhetoric-report/
C@tmomma @ #1635 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 9:02 am
Last time I saw that look on a face was an Israeli girl who had just emerged from a private interview with Laos customs.
Maybe its time to repost this in these times
guytaur @ #1622 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 11:39 am
Guytaur
No I think this is not how the world worked in 1992. When the USSR collapsed the USA could have invaded BUT they preferred to simply colonise and exploit which they did. US and UK based companies exploited the Russian resources- mostly oil and unleashed unfettered capitalism on Russia.
They saw no need to invade Russia, since to all intents and purposes Russia was theirs already. Yeltsin was a weak puppet, all the profits went to USA, UK and allies, and there was no point risking lives in russia’s cold weather. At that time there was talk of Russia JOINING NATO and the EU.
Putin himself was pretty pro Europe and the west and his PM very strongly so.
In 1999 it was a basket case and almost in a state of disintegration. The chechen affair (funded by saudi i have read who were also sunni muslims) nearly destroyed the nation and i have no doubt that US strategists just did not bother to invade or act since russia seemed to be a basket case.
Then something changed. I am not sure what it was, but some say it was the Serbian bombing which upset many Russian particularly those who were part of the orthodox church community, who originally very pro Western, were terribly disillusioned. While one person does not prove a theory i suspect that the history of a blog operator known as the Saker characterizes this sentiment. This guy was the child/grandchild of WHITE Russians who had fled the communists. strongly orthodox and very anti communist, this guy actually served in one western intelligence service(not sure which – Switzerland or Netherland I suspect) as a military analyst, specializing in Russia (he spoke Russian). For this guy anyway the Serbian intervention flipped him to being pro Russian and pro Putin. I am not sure how typical this story is but Putin also claims that it was the Serbian intervention which made him distrust the USA and the Clintons in particular.
Anyway Guytaur something flipped in Russia. Putin arrived, crushed the Chechen rebellion, raised the Kursk (a morale booster) and somehow turned the country around. It cannot just have been Putin because no one man can do this alone but something changed and russia got its Mojo back.
Now you will recall that the Dubya years were ones of total US folly, when presumably assuming Russia was not a threat at all the USA decided to attack the ME. Like millions of others in Australia (probably most on PB) I marched against the Iraq invasion, but it happened anyway. This high cost war essentially bankrupted the USA , and also meant that Russia under Putin could recover without much attention from rivals. I think it was not until the Obama years that the USA once again realised that Russia was re-emergent. However by this time China had also grown much stronger and US strategists were in a bit of a dilemma. Worry about China or Russia or keep pursuing the Israeli inspired ME strategy. I think that the USA tried to deal with all three of thse threats at once and achieved little.
However i think by 2013/14 the Clinton/Brzezinski faction had identified Russia as enemy No 1 but saw the ME strategy as a way of addressing this in part. By contrast the Kissinger faction were more worried about China.
Trouble is I do not think the US strategists have made up their minds about who is the threat Russia, China, Iran etc. That is the reason they have not invaded Russia- and I guess they also worry about the Russian nukes.
My very real fear is about the armageddon rapture freaks who are not scared of a nuclear war sine they will be “raptured” to heaven. Pence of course believes this and to my horror i read yesterday that Pompeo is also a religion nutter.
Largest Alcoholic Beverages Companies
Below are the world’s largest alcoholic beverages companies ordered by total annual sales (both domestic and international) reported as of December 2018. Shown within parenthesis is the location where each conglomerate has its headquarters.
Anheuser-Busch InBev: US$56.4 billion (Belgium) up 23.7%
Heineken Holding: $24.7 billion (Netherlands) up 7.4%
Asahi Group Holdings: $19.4 billion (Japan) up 23.6%
Kirin Holdings: $16.6 billion (Japan) down -13.1%
Diageo: $15.7 billion (United Kingdom) up 3.3%
Suntory Holdings: $11 billion (Japan) up 21.3%
Molson Coors Brewing: $10.9 billion (United States) up 122.4%
Pernod Ricard: $10.2 billion (France) up 5.2%
Carlsberg: $9.4 billion (Denmark) up 1.1%
Kweichow Moutai: $8.5 billion (China) up 70%
Constellation Brands: $7.6 billion (United States) up 4.1%
Thai Beverage: $5.6 billion (Thailand) up 5.7%
Wuliangye Yibin: $4.4 billion (China) up 29.4%
Brown-Forman: $3.2 billion (United States) up 6.7%
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery: $2.9 billion (China) up 11.5%
Russia could try harder in the grog business.
E. G. Theodore @ #1629 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 11:58 am
Not just that, but it can only be “the will of the people” as frozen in time on June 23, 2016. If the will of the people has changed since then, then screw them, we don’t care about what they think anymore. 🙂
E. G. Theodore @ #1627 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 12:58 pm
This is a parody, yes ..?
Leading out to the rostrum
rossmcg @ #1533 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 1:03 pm
Maybe. But the problem is, when it does rain, the big Irrigators nick off with the water.
lizzie @ #1593 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 11:51 am
Never mind the torture and cruelty being carried out, but DAMNED if we are going to waste $2m !!!
Perhaps AR or someone else could poll the PB fraternity on this topic to establish how many people here would like to see the date of Australia Day changed. That would be very interesting.
Put me down for no change.
@CatSoluna tweets
@billyeichner Rainbow Railroad is a Canadian initiative that worked with the Canadian government in 2017 to successfully sneak out and offer asylum to 31 LBGQT Russians. Hopefully, they will be able to do more.
This is what the world is letting Russia get away with while Trump is President. It shows exactly how servile Trump is to Russia. Clinton as Secretary of State called this stuff out.
Darn @ #1644 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 1:35 pm
I’m for change.
A bit of respect and compassion doesn’t cost anything to give to those of our indigenous peoples who are rightly offended.
Exported Hats by Country: Overall
Below are the 20 countries that exported the highest dollar value worth of hats shipped during 2017.
China: US$4.3 billion (46.9% of globally exported headgear)
Germany: $455.6 million (5%)
Vietnam: $429.2 million (4.7%)
Italy: $418.2 million (4.6%)
Netherlands: $347.2 million (3.8%)
Bangladesh: $300.1 million (3.3%)
France: $297.9 million (3.3%)
United States: $272.8 million (3%)
Belgium: $242.4 million (2.7%)
United Kingdom: $216.8 million (2.4%)
Mexico: $139.9 million (1.5%)
Hong Kong: $139.1 million (1.5%)
Spain: $139.1 million (1.5%)
South Korea: $109.7 million (1.2%)
Poland: $104.2 million (1.1%)
Taiwan: $102.1 million (1.1%)
Czech Republic: $77.5 million (0.9%)
Canada: $67.4 million (0.7%)
Turkey: $36.6 million (0.4%)
Cambodia: $33.5 million (0.4%)
The above countries produced 90.2% of overall exports for hats in 2017.
Hats! What about the hat trade! It’s taking off. Let there be an abundance of hats.
My god it’s the end of the world as we know it – forget Global Warming, this is a real disaster!
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/16/health/coffee-species-extinction-climate-study-trnd/index.html