Ipsos and Essential Research closed their accounts for 2018 this week, and their combined effect has been to reduce Labor’s lead to 54.3-45.7 after a blowout to 54.9-45.1 last week. This is good for one Coalition gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. Full results through the link below.
We’re unlikely to see any more poll results until mid-January, although Newspoll should be unloading its quarterly state breakdowns in a week or so, and hopefully a few state voting intention results as well. Nonetheless, things should be pretty active around here over the silly season, as there’s a backlog preselection analysis to attend to, and I should finally get time to attend to my long-promised Morrison-era overhaul of BludgerTrack.
“How to sharpen it as a political message? Saying “If A then remember B, so we should do C.”, is a bit subtle.”
lr…i reckon that the ALP Strategy machine will have something to speak to that prepared and waiting. The ALP under Shorten has been pretty “agile”. And the ALP Machine is primed, practiced, financed, locked, loaded ready to go.
It would be a tough thing to deal with if a recession kicks in pre-election. Actually, whats the odds the Libs start looking all “SERIOUS” over “global headwinds and storm warnings ?? Sow a bit of fear to exploit the myth that the Coalition are better economic managers?? 🙂
Recession after the election would associate it with the ALP, but………with a strong HoR majority and a workable Senate there may be the political “calm” for them to be able to make policy and deal as best they can. Then…they have to work fwarking hard to get the credit.!!!! 🙂
How do you know this?
https://www.thestranger.com/sponsored/36658475/leafbuyer
Legal cannabis shopping in the USA appears to be flourishing.
Secularists? Yule be sorry.
If the Cosmos was unknowable. How would you unknow that!
How did we get behind the US on legal cannabis? It’s a disgrace.
jenauthor @ #1648 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 10:46 am
That all depended on whether you liked the Pope or not!
https://www.timeanddate.com/calendar/julian-gregorian-switch.html
Nicholas says:
Monday, December 24, 2018 at 2:52 pm
Yet the cosmos is knowable.
How do you know this?
From the use of reason…..observation, experiment, critique….from the derivation of knowledge by the use of falsifiable claims….
Do you have another suggestion?
lizzie @ #1620 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 10:55 am
The reason Maccas put pickles on their burgers is to stop them being classed as confectionery.
For some reason or other Trump is not happy with Mnuchin.
People with whom Trump is reported to have been unhappy have an almost perfect probability of being sacked, unless they walk first. (Technically, Mattis managed both.)
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/24/us-markets-mnuchin-to-convene-crisis-team-amid-white-house-chaos
To know the Cosmos is to know how things are bent out of shape.
There are plenty of things that cannot be verified or measured but exist nevertheless.
There should be a betting agency in the USA offering odds on how long each of Trumps appointments are going to last. They are all great until they disagree with him,then its back to the dole queue or jail.
We all know the Reds in the Greens aim to gut the ADF, to not buy big things and to reshape the force structure into a Light Mobile Force.
I wonder whether there is a single Greens who bothers to make any sort of rational connection between the above policy framework and on-ground reality as reported below:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/24/indonesia-denies-using-white-phosphorous-in-west-papua
Barney in Go Dau @ #1632 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 11:18 am
A couple of days ago I argued that January 7 was Jehoshuah;’s actual birthday. I stand corrected now as I recall it was the Orthodox Churches date for “Christ Mass” that I had gotten muddled up with the actual birth date of Jehoshuah. Carry on. As You were.
Nicholas says:
Monday, December 24, 2018 at 3:04 pm
From the use of reason…..observation, experiment, critique….from the derivation of knowledge by the use of falsifiable claims….
There are plenty of things that cannot be verified or measured but exist nevertheless.
Name some.
The truth is BW is that we Greens welcome our new Indonesian overlords and will help round up those like yourselves to labour in the salt mines.
Trump’s swampy Pentagon pick oversaw weapons boondoggles forcing the military to buy weapons it didn’t want
President Donald Trump’s new pick for the Secretary of Defense joins a chorus of swamp-dwellers that have been appointed to the cabinet.
A report by the Daily Beast ripped new appointee Patrick Shanahan for his controversial history demanding the military purchase weapons that they didn’t need nor did they want
The Air Force said that it didn’t want any more F-15s, because they prefer the F-35 stealth fighter from Lockheed Martin, America’s biggest defense contractor. The Pentagon overruled the military branch, saying that they would be added to the government anyway. It was Shannahan who “prodded” them to include the planes, Bloomberg reported.
Rules dictate that Shanahan recuse himself from any decisions involving Boeing, but that clearly wasn’t done in this case.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-acting-defense-secretary-patrick-shanahan-is-a-controversial-former-boeing-executive
Rationally, for this to work:
a) The Libs would need to be able to blame someone else. Who?
b) The Libs would need to point to their successes. Where?
I accept that for most people voting isn’t rational. If you are undecided when voting you might remember one or two things in the moment. If you’re leaning Liberal but still undecided in the months preceding you might be looking for reassurance or excuses.
I like your point about ALP strategists, who have time to exploit the weakness of the Liberals in the face of a coming storm. The simplified message might be the USA is going over the edge, don’t let the Liberals push Australia to join them. Remember the GFC. Vote ALP.
??
Jenauthor
I posted a video recently that hypothesised that the lagend of Jehoshuah was actually based on the actual life of Titus Flavius the Roman military keader, and that the “Gospels” were actually written by allies of the Flavians. Did you see it?
If not you can find it on YouTube using Caesar Messiah as the search term. Very interesting hypothesis.
Yeah, he’s full of runs and bowling menacingly!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-24/mitchell-marsh-looking-likely-to-be-recalled-for-boxing-day-test/10666184
It’s also possible that knowledge itself is subject to a law or laws of evolution. The theory of knowledge has been developing for quite a while, from the primitivism of religious/numinous thought and myth to the quantum.
It’s also well worth asking if knowledge exists separately from those who “know”.
Steve Mnuchin claims he’s making calls to bank heads as markets tank — he’s at a high-end beach resort in Cabo
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s office released a statement Sunday saying that he was making calls to the heads of several banks to reassure them about the economy and markets. In fact, Mnuchin was on the beach.
“Tomorrow, the Secretary will convene a call with the President’s Working Group on the financial market, which he chairs. This includes the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission,” the statement continued.
There’s just one problem with that: Mnuchin is actually on the beach in Cabo.
“Treasury [Sec.] Mnuchin, his wife Louise, and his teen daughter are vacationing at the ultra exclusive private estate resort, El Dorado, in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, according to two people with first hand knowledge,” tweeted MSNBC’s Jesse Rodriguez.
If the MSNBC report is true, Mnuchin must be “working” from the beach resort.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/steve-mnuchin-claims-hes-making-calls-bank-heads-markets-tank-hes-actually-high-end-beach-resort-cabo/
Nicholas @ #1663 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 2:04 pm
Seriously? You may have to define “exists”.
You can’t disprove the existence of a God. You can state that there is no evidence for such a proposition and that the existence of the universe and everything therein can be accounted for with scientific theories which have a greater explanatory power than a first cause deity.
“the USA is going over the edge, don’t let the Liberals push Australia to join them. Remember the GFC. Vote ALP.”
Good one. 🙂 Lemmings !!!!
OK Jen,
I think I’ve got it now.
I had my calendar drifting in the wrong direction. 🙂
The winter solstice was originally established on the 25th of Dec.
Due to a flaw in the Julian calendar by 336 the actual solstice was about 2 1/2 days earlier on the 22nd.
Culturally the 25th was still considered the solstice and was chosen as the day for Xmas.
The drift continued until Gregory’s time where the Gregorian calendar was introduced and the dates were realigned back to 336.
This however left the solstice on the 22nd as it was in 336 and as it is now. 🙂
BK
On his form he must be well in with the selectors.
citizen says: Monday, December 24, 2018 at 2:47 pm
“From what I’ve read, the [McDonalds] ‘buns’ are deliberately sweet and soft, but of little food value, so that having eaten one, you want to go back for more.”
********************************************************
Bah Humbug …… to be truly satisfied, what you need is a big fat greasy Trump Burger ….
All ingredients brought up on daily feed of diet coke – and as Rick Wilson says –
Rick WilsonVerified account @TheRickWilson
Rick Wilson Retweeted Donald J. Trump
Maybe it’s just a couple rails of Adderall, but I swear to God you have every sign of being someone deeply familiar with Bolivian marching powder.
This is a short sentence, but remarkably, it contains at least 6 lies – can anyone spot more?
“The truth is BW is that we Greens welcome our new Indonesian overlords and will help round up those like yourselves to labour in the salt mines.”
Our border protection under the Morrison/Dutton regime is going extremely well…
Sprocket
Yes,one of them is that it is not a short sentence.
Dan Gulberry @ #1664 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 11:07 am
This adoption of the Gregorian calendar caused some interesting dates.
One of my favourites is the British fiscal year.
The new year used to be the 25th of March, but when the Gregorian calendar was introduced people withheld their taxes until 365 days had passed which made it the 5th of April. 🙂
nath says:
Monday, December 24, 2018 at 3:17 pm
You can’t disprove the existence of a God. You can state that there is no evidence for such a proposition and that the existence of the universe and everything therein can be accounted for with scientific theories which have a greater explanatory power than a first cause deity.
This is the conventional statement of the issue. I think it is inadequate. If deities existed the cosmos would be inherently ineffable. Understanding and explanation of the cosmos would not be possible. But clearly it is possible to understand and explain the cosmos. The cosmos is accessible to reason. This argues very strongly against the presence of cosmic deities….or fairies, or goblins, or demons, or karma, or demigod….or any other class of supernatural entity.
It is not simply a matter of there being “no evidence” against the existence of god. It is rather the case that if Gods existed knowledge would not be possible. This is clearly false, both on first principles and in the empirical record.
I can’t recall who had their package from the UK delayed in Perth, but perhaps this is why.
Border Force workers relocated to staff airports
24/12/2018|1min
Australian Border Force workers are reportedly being taken off their usual jobs to staff airports over the holiday period.
Fairfax reports the screening of cargo and mail entering Australia has taken a hit because of ‘significant budget pressures’.
One facility, which typically operates around-the-clock screenings, has been replaced by just one screening shift a day, prompting concerns from border force workers that drugs, firearms and other illicit goods could make their way into the country.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has denied the reports.
So much for keeping Australians safe over the holiday period.Maybe because Qantas’s volunteers scheme failed they are now working their voluntary jobs.
I am currently reading a short story by Stephen King entitled Elevation.
A couple of items.
Department Stores are like buggy-whip factories at the start of the automobile age.
In the twenty-first century, print newspapers are also buggy-whip factories.
Why is that the really good writers can so engage me that I laugh and cry about events and characters that only exist in the mind ❓
I don’t know how they do it – I’m glad they do.
Here endeth the lesson. KayJay Vol1, Chap 1, Page 1. 😇
jenauthor @ #1635 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 2:22 pm
The solstice does not take three days, where do you get that from?
In London, England, these are the day lengths on the relevant days, to the nearest second:
December 2018:
18th: 7:50:21
19th: 7:50:02
20th: 7:49:50
21st: 7:49:44
22nd: 7:49:44
23rd: 7:49:51
24th: 7:50:05
25th: 7:50:25
The 25th is long past the solstice.
https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/uk/london?month=12
You Can’t Serve Both Trump and America
The departure of Jim Mattis is proof that you cannot have it all.
The president misunderstood his secretary of defense. The Jim Mattis one saw on the battlefields of Afghanistan and in the shattered cities of Iraq was not “Mad Dog,” a sobriquet he loathed, but a resolute military leader who was a reader and a thinker. Give him a copy of Marcus Aurelius’s Meditations, and he would compare it with the other two editions that he already owned.
He was, to be sure, a fierce enemy. In 2005, he got into trouble for saying, “You go into Afghanistan, you got guys who slap women around for five years because they didn’t wear a veil. You know, guys like that ain’t got no manhood left anyway. So it’s a hell of a lot of fun to shoot them.” He was also the man who said, “Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill everyone you meet.” And he meant it. He did not think you had to hate an enemy to kill him, but that just made him a more formidable leader in combat. His menace to America’s battlefield enemies was that of the superbly calm tactician, not the blood-crazed berserker.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/12/mattis-proved-you-cant-serve-both-trump-and-america/578902/
A merry Christmas to the good peoples here. I’ll put in a good word at Mass tonight for youse unbelievers.
jenauthor @ #1622 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 1:58 pm
And you have the hide to claim you are an historian. That and you quote all the crackpot authors. There are many non Biblical sources that support the fact that Jesus did exist, as did John the Baptist, and that Jesus was crucified. Nearly all REAL scholars (i.e. not self proclaimed ones) agree with these three points. Proving that Jesus was God/Holy is another matter though.
Trump managed to annoy everyone in the GOP this week in a performance that doesn’t bode well for 2019
If you’re a Republican voter, President Donald Trump has spent the last week irritating you. In varying degrees, the president managed to alienate every contingent of the GOP’s coalition.
Trump can’t be expected to make everyone happy, but it takes an uncommonly inept performance to make no one happy. As portents go, that is an ominous one for the GOP in 2019.
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-found-way-annoy-everyone-gop-week-performance-doesn-t-ncna951446
All this information is contained in Ptolemy’s Almagest. Modern calculations permit to verify the numerical data. They show that Hypparchus and Ptolemy could determine the time of an equinox with 7 hours accuracy and solstice to 12 hours.
Edit: If you can determine the solstice to within 12 hours in ancient times, it doesn’t make sense to talk about the solstice taking three days. Or is that six days, when you count the three days before the solstice as well as the three days afterwards, giving December 25th?
Hypparchus and Ptolemy determined the length of the year as 365 days 5 hours 55 min 12 sec. They used observations spanned over 550 years.
https://history.stackexchange.com/questions/8619/how-could-ancient-people-determine-the-winter-solstice-was-occurring
and from
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/02/24/think-you-know-how-many-days-are-in-a-year-think-again/?utm_term=.6f8d3fffe1b1
Modern calendars are set according to the tropical year, which tracks the amount of time it takes to get from spring equinox to spring equinox — about 365 days, 5 hours, 48 minutes, and 46 seconds, or 365.2422 days. It’s probably the most well-known measure of a year because it’s the most useful for people here on Earth. If you want to know when the seasons will change, the tropical year will tell you.
Outside left says:
Monday, December 24, 2018 at 4:04 pm
A merry Christmas to the good peoples here. I’ll put in a good word at Mass tonight for youse unbelievers.
________________________
Save your good words on our behalf. Maybe have a word to the Bishop and ask him to stop keeping pedophile priests in houses, cars and stipends.
Late Riser
Love? Infinity?
Sprocket,
1. There are no salt mines in Australia. There are salt mines in Pakistan, where your ‘Himalayan’ Pink Salt comes from, and in Russia. Australia harvests it’s salt from the sea and dried-up lakes.
2. Indonesia could not win a war with Australia because our Naval warfare capability is far superior to theirs.
3. I would think our Air Force would be too.
4. The Indonesian Army would be unable to engage with ours in battle because they would never get to Australia. Not across the sea and not via PNG.
5. Our ANZUS Alliance still counts for something. Even with Trump doing his best to sabotage it.
6. I doubt Indonesian Armed Forces are trained to fight a war under Australian conditions.
Have I missed anything? Except that nath shoots off his mouth first and then maybe thinks about it later. 😆
A lovely mystery I hope we never solve. But maybe it’s partly your loving mind. Love well. 🙂
Quaedvlieg to Morrison.
Outside left
Thanks for the thought. In my church-going days Christmas Eve was always a happy night.
Have a good one.,