Ipsos and Essential Research closed their accounts for 2018 this week, and their combined effect has been to reduce Labor’s lead to 54.3-45.7 after a blowout to 54.9-45.1 last week. This is good for one Coalition gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. Full results through the link below.
We’re unlikely to see any more poll results until mid-January, although Newspoll should be unloading its quarterly state breakdowns in a week or so, and hopefully a few state voting intention results as well. Nonetheless, things should be pretty active around here over the silly season, as there’s a backlog preselection analysis to attend to, and I should finally get time to attend to my long-promised Morrison-era overhaul of BludgerTrack.
@ Lizzie
Correct. I am in Tokyo and yesterday visited one of my customers using Queensland coking coal to produce steel for wind turbines that will be sold all across the globe.
I asked that question. Without coming coal what would they do?
They looked at me as if I was from another planet. There is no alternative.
Looks like Murdoch is upset that others are competing with him in the production of fake news:
The Minerals Council could have added a third question to their push poll
“The coal industry leads to billions of tonnes of polluting greenhouse gases being pumped into the atmosphere at no cost to the fat mining billionaires, destroying the planet for our children. Do you support coal mining?”
Given the state of the share market I would be more worried about loss of capital than franking credits.
Anyone with big exposure to bank shares in particular should be worried.
But it’s an ill wind.
Had to advise Centrelink of some small changes to my modest share portfolio the other day and they revalued the lot and my small asset tested part pension is going up by about 30 bucks a week.
Just in time for Christmas.
Upnorth
True, and if the coal mining industry had any sense they would support re-newables instead of making fools of themselves trying to hold back the tide.
The level of stupid shown by the mineral council is beyond belief. The really crazy thing; the lump of coal Scomo so lovingly stroked in parliament could have easily been destined for a blast furnace; it looked like bituminous coal.
sprocket_ @ #1503 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 5:59 am
Nuance and openness, all sides are guilty of some neglect in these areas. 🙂
@ Frednk
Agree 100%
“Don’t know much about Geology…”
But I am interested to find that Krakatau, in addition to the famous 1883 eruption/explosion, also had major eruptions probably in 535 AD, and ~60,000 BC and that this is likely a cyclical process, building up again in Anak Krakatau (“child of Krakatau”). Figures 10 and 11 in this article are quite disturbing to non-geologist me.
http://www.ivan-art.com/science/PAPERS/2012_petro_krakatau.pdf
More specifically, a tsunami from the partial collapse of Anak Krakatau was predicted in 2012, and the authors concluded that close monitoring of the volcano could allow some sort of warning to be made should this occur, noting that the time from collapse to the resultant tsunami hitting populated areas would be less than one hour.
http://sp.lyellcollection.org/content/361/1/79
Upnorth
The difference between metallurgical coal, typically high quality black coal, and thermal coal, typically but not always brown or high phosphorous coal, is too much for the headlines in the Coal Good vs Coal Bad debate. The populace is not being well informed.
The Courier Mail manages to do a whole article on support for coal without this distinction.
The economics of steel production and the economics of energy production, and what role coal plays, how many emissions are generated and what alternatives exist, is something which needs more exposure.
@ Sprocket
Agree. It’s a pity more of the population don’t read PB. Despite some of the comments here sensible discussion can be found. You are correct sir.
Alan Hutchinson wrote a wonderful piece about corporation tax in his UK blog Matches In The Dark. He advocates describing and conceptualizing corporation tax as a default fine. Any corporation of any size can reduce its default fine by doing socially useful things such as:
paying all of their workers significantly more than the minimum wage
paying their highest paid worker no more than five times their lowest paid worker
providing high quality training to their workers
including workers on their board and in all decision-making processes in a substantive manner
encouraging union membership
investing in private capital formation (factories, plant, equipment)
reducing their amount of resource depletion
reducing their amount of pollution
investing in research and development
investing in automation
investing in neglected sectors of the economy
As the majority of corporations improve their performance, add more conditions that have to be met in order to qualify for the reductions in the default fine.
Make it a Sisyphean task for a corporation to gets its default fine down to zero.
Exclude the major accountancy firms from being involved in designing the conditions that qualify a firm for reductions to its default fine.
http://www.matchesinthedark.uk/tax-people-not-corporations/
Thanks TPOF for the figures on dividends.
What people want are jobs, coal production or otherwise.
North Queensland was badly hit in the GFC and is insecure.
The Democrats in the US and governments here failed coal miners and other workers.
A critical part of Labors’s energy policy is transition for workers from fossil fuel industries. As the coal mining industry gets smaller, conditions for existing workers must be maintained.
Many thanks to William Bowe for hosting this site for many years and putting up with all of us. Long Live the King!
Many thanks also to BK (and his little elves) who does such a great and useful contribution.
May everyone and their families have a happy and safe Christmas and New Year!
I got reachteled re the coal a few months ago down in here in Petrie. There were more questions asked though. Of course I answered yes to the first question 2 questions, they are fact of the present reality. When asked if I supported the Adani mine I answered no.
What to do when the coal mines close is a big question. I came across this article recently (in German) describing a “black coal city”, Bottrop, that closed its last mine this month. According to the writer, people are optimistic and feel good about themselves. Reading further it turns out that planning for the closure started in the 1990s, focussing on leisure (theme parks), climate tech (renewables), and research (universities).
https://www.dw.com/de/bottrop-wenn-eine-kohlestadt-zum-klimavorreiter-wird/a-46712713
What I get from the article is that by starting the transition early and taking it slowly they got it right. Conversely, by not doing this we are now left with only bad choices. We need to own up to that failure, and if it takes blame to shift ideas so be it. The longer we wait the worse our choices become.
AFAIK,
We havent figured out a replacement for coking coal (steelmaking etc) which means that form of coal mining will continue. However we have clear and cheaper replacements for coal destined for power stations (wind, solar, battery storage).
I understand that the Gallilee Basin (Adani) coal is low grade and only good for electricity generation.
Likewise the majority of the coal in VIC is brown coal meaning its only good for electricity generation but generates huge amounts of carbon pollution, even compared to black coal used in NSW/QLD.
In Sweden, they are just about to start a pilot coal-free hydrogen based plant for steel production. With a relative excess renewables to be used.
The video explicitly explains how they aim to remove coal, which they import from Australia, from steel making
With a potential growing excess of cheap renewables you’d think others would be pondering similar moves as the technology develops
There is further recent literature on this below
https://www.ssab.com/company/sustainability/sustainable-operations/hybrit?dcFilter=&dcSearch=
HYBRIT – Toward fossil-free steel
In 2016, SSAB, LKAB and Vattenfall joined forces to create HYBRIT – a joint venture project that endeavors to revolutionize steel-making. HYBRIT aims to replace coking coal, traditionally needed for ore-based steel making, with hydrogen. The result will be unique: the world’s first fossil-free steel-making technology, with virtually no carbon footprint. In spring 2018, a pilot plant for fossil-free steel production will be planned and designed in Luleå and the Norrbotten iron ore fields, 250 km north west of Luleå. The goal is to have a solution for fossil-free steel by 2035. A successful HYBRIT means that together we can reduce Sweden’s CO2 emissions by 10% and Finland’s by 7%.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652618326301
Cheers for the holidays PBer’s and WB
On Twitter
Late Riser @ #1515 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:27 am
Many issues we face largely result from head in the sand Governments who did not prepare despite knowing what the issues would be.
Here seems to be an example of when the opposite occurs.
Who’d have thunk it?
Newcastle and Wollongong are two big cities in Aus that really need to consider their future post coal. I know that both have been trying to leverage off their universities but they still have employment issues from the closure/reduced size of their steelworks.
Likewise someone really needs to come up with a plan for the VIC brown coal fields that works.
lizzie @ #1518 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:46 am
I say we introduce ComScooters!
Perfect for whipping from one appointment to another through heavy traffic. 🙂
Quoll
Thank you for the link to that Swedish/Finnish project. If someone could crack a feasible non coal steelmaking process that would be very beneficial to everyone.
Why is the US Treasury Secretary calling big banks about liquidity? Worried about the stock market collapse? Worried about bond yield inversion? Worried about a looming recession? Worried about plummeting confidence with a loon in the Whitehouse?
IoM @ #1522 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:52 am
But don’t close your coke mine.
2035 is a long way off.
‘Nicholas says:
Monday, December 24, 2018 at 10:13 am
Alan Hutchinson wrote a wonderful piece about corporation tax in his UK blog Matches In The Dark. He advocates describing and conceptualizing corporation tax as a default fine. Any corporation of any size can reduce its default fine by doing socially useful things such as:’
Screwing the shareholders?
Why don’t socialists call as spade a spade?
Eddy Jokovich on Scotty watch..
Scott Morrison has worn the same glasses since 2007, but changed his pair last week. Remarkably, he now has the same style as Malcolm Turnbull’s and now wearing the same style of open neck shirts as Turnbull. Coincidence? #auspol @TurnbullMalcolm
Upnorth
“I know I will get smashed on this. The vast majority of coal produced in Central and North Queensland is coking coal used in metal production.”
That is actually a good point – we will always need coking coal and I do not dispute the mines that produce coking coal for that purpose (domestic or exported) should be kept going. But I would add two qualifiers.
First a lot of coal exported now (including 40% of Qld coal exports) is thermal coal used for power. Coking coal from Qld is maybe 60% of exports, and has been declining as a % as more lower grade coal areas are opened up for mining. E.g. Callide, Clermont and Dawson mines. So even in Qld, some current exports should stop if we are serious about CO2 emissions.
Second, the industry started mining the best grades of coal, and has gradually moved to lower and lower grades, like the new Galilee basin coals Adani wants to mine. They are all lower grade steaming coals.
So there will still be jobs in coal mining in Qld in a sustainable world, but they will be fewer, and there will be virtually no jobs in constructing new coal mines, as they are almost all linked to low grade thermal coal. Same in NSW. Virtually all the Vic and WA coal is low grade thermal coal.
See
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-27/fact-check-is-australias-export-coal-cleaner/6952190
And
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_in_Australia
I don’t mind slowly easing out of some corners of use of fossil fuels.
Surely the easy first step is to get to 100% renewable electricity generation / storage.
As soon as you’ve got that transition sorted start taxing the life out of the one private coal powered power station left, and the 150 farmers who like burning diesel.
Soon as you have eV’s in caryards at competitive prices, start to tax the other ones off the lot.
If you have no viable replacement for jet fuel, leave jetfuel in place, soon as there is a viable eV plane to cover x-distance tax the hell out of jef fuel used in travel < x distance.
If you have no viable alternative for coal in steel making let that continue, but as soon as you have an alternative tax the hell out of it.
We are, IMHO, much closer to, if not already on the other side of the tipping point, but we will see.
But dont open any more. Gupta said as much with his plans to expand at Whyalla with a mixture of solar and storage, both existing and new tech (hydrogen as storage?) to take up the increasing demand and slowly replace the existing.
Add SMR nuclear to it all in conjunction with electric cars with batteries coupled to the grid….
I reckon you are right. Just needs one last big bipartisan push. Unfortunately, there are enough peeps out there who will not want to make any sacrifice and are ripe for the populist scaremonger to harvest their votes like the vegetables they are.
One final point on coal – world wide coking coal is only 20% of coal use. So if we stopped coal use for electricity that would drop coal usage and emissions by 80%. That would be enough to meet most GHG stabilising targets. But the other 80% of coal use, and most oil use, would still have to go.
So perhaps the policy should be “no new thermal coal mines or coal power plants”, plus a phase out of existing ones when they reach the end of their licenses.
Merry Xmas and happy new year to all Bludgers. Hope everyone has a great break filled with joy and love.
Morrison, having helped screw down wages for five years, is begging consumers to add to their household debts for Christmas.
How bloody pathetic!
Socrates @ #1531 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 7:09 am
Isn’t the market already starting to say that?
Banks refusing to finance new mines.
I love it when things turn out just the way you would wish them to:
Laura Ingraham taunted David Hogg over college rejections. He just said he got into Harvard.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2018/12/22/laura-ingraham-taunted-david-hogg-over-college-rejections-he-just-said-he-got-into-harvard/?utm_term=.aead7c35abe4
sprocket_ @ #1526 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 11:01 am
I would like to report an incident of identity theft!
15 years ago, in a hunger emergency, I took my mother to Hungry Jack’s.
The food was so poor that we vowed never to eat there again. And never have.
Eddy Jokovich should contemplate how he can spend his time more productively.
So Morrisons Trump Junior act was a failure, so now hes going to be Trumble Junior instead.Maybe a leather jacket on QANDA soon.
lizzie @ #1537 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 7:21 am
You’re lucky you didn’t go to McDonald’s! 🙂
Wage stagnation will become even worse if the government persists with its foolish aim of inflicting a private sector deficit.
After all, that is what a federal government surplus is. A private sector deficit.
A private sector deficit takes income out of the private sector. What do you think that does to people’s wages?
“I reckon you are right. Just needs one last big bipartisan push. Unfortunately, there are enough peeps out there who will not want to make any sacrifice and are ripe for the populist scaremonger to harvest their votes like the vegetables they are”
And a global push is needed too, start singling out first world countries that aren’t hitting targets and hitting their exports and imports until they do. Single out developing countries and give / invest in their renewable alternatives.
Obviously Australia would be whacked around by this one but we deserve it our media and the LNP have us one of the stupidest and least advanced countries in this respect.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1076530168712302595
@michaelschweitz
Dec 22
More
Ok, everybody can relax. We are no longer in any danger. Buddy killed the draft stopper.
(Time off for humour is vital.)
Greensborough Growler @ #1536 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 7:20 am
Once a Muppet always a Muppet! 🙂
“Eddy Jokovich should contemplate how he can spend his time more productively.”
Why in particular? is there something about Eddy we should know. His name looks familiar but I’m not sure why
Scott Robinson reborn!
Behold Brian Robinson!
Eddy Jokovich
ratsak says:
Monday, December 24, 2018 at 11:31 am
Scott Robinson reborn!
Behold Brian Robinson!
———————————————
Remember when Peacock had his plastic surgery! Tory vanity.
Howard also did a spectacle change over the years and got rid of the bushy eyebrows. Maybe also some of the Rodent teeth.
Morrison and Turnbull looks like lost twin brothers.
“Morrison and Turnbull looks like lost twin brothers.”
More dumber and dumbest.