Ipsos and Essential Research closed their accounts for 2018 this week, and their combined effect has been to reduce Labor’s lead to 54.3-45.7 after a blowout to 54.9-45.1 last week. This is good for one Coalition gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. Full results through the link below.
We’re unlikely to see any more poll results until mid-January, although Newspoll should be unloading its quarterly state breakdowns in a week or so, and hopefully a few state voting intention results as well. Nonetheless, things should be pretty active around here over the silly season, as there’s a backlog preselection analysis to attend to, and I should finally get time to attend to my long-promised Morrison-era overhaul of BludgerTrack.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/the-mythbusters-of-back-pain-believe-they-can-treat-it-with-words-20181217-p50msa.html
Thank you again BK.
Re the linked article by Amanda Vanstone. Many former Ministers include part-time journalism in their post-Parliamentary career. Some write thoughtful and insightful articles on current issues and challenges. Some provide interesting analyses of and insights into history informed by their time in the arena. Others simply become shills, cheerleaders and apologists for their side.
No prizes for guessing which one Amanda is.
https://outline.com/P6ZUZu
BK (& OL&M Billbowe… & lizzie, C@t, KJ, ‘fess, BW, SK, BiGD, LR, BB etc etc…). On behalf of slack lurkers everywhere, may I add my voice to those who regard the information collected, curated and contemplated on PB as essential to semi-sane survival in the noosphere – especially after 2018. Between the wide open jaws of the PB python (see right…if the first lump is Trumble, who is the second?) and Sean Kelly’s reflection on the ALP’s quiet confidence, 2019 may be another bumper year. Thanks for all of your fish, and have a happy new one.
Good morning all.
Thank you William.
Thank you BK.
Thank you lizzie.
Thank you Bludgers.
I wish you all a happy and enjoyable holiday season.
Take care with all the expected and unexpected physical and emotional ups and downs.
Morning all
Many thanks to William Bowe for continuing to provide us bludgers with this platform to discuss all that interests us.
Much appreciated.
And thanks to all bludgers for their contributions.
A Special thanks to BK for his invaluable Dawn patrol.
My hope for 2019 is that Trump finally departs the scene
I am still feeling a forced resignation with the excuse of ill health being the motive.
Hopefully the realisation will come to the majority that he was a narcissistic, sexual deviant who sold out the nation he swore to serve, for personal power and greed.
The extent of his conduct will ultimately shock the people.
This should hopefully help bring positive changes to the body politic.
Meanwhile Shorten and Labor should win the election. My sense is that it won’t be the comfortable win that State Victoria has enjoyed.
And I still believe Brexit won’t happen.
Season’s greetings to all!
From the BK files.
Robert Gottliebsen has written an open letter to Shorten and Bowen about franking credits for retirees.
https://outline.com/xHyev5
I would be very interested to hear from those better qualified to critique this item.
Over and out. I’m off to have a consult with my GP in a few minutes. 💉
Morning all. Thanks William for your insight and patience through the year. Thanks BK for your erudite roundup of each day, averting me from the need to visit the Australian or something else equally horrible. And thanks to you, Cat, Lizzie, Confessions and others for a good humoured start to each day. Its better to laugh at this government than weep, as they sell you nation down the river to whoever offers the Liberal party thirty pieces of silver.
Eureka
I see it, Muriel I see it — the PB Python, it ain’t Charlie Chaplin at all. What a fool I’ve been.
Must go. Ta Ta ❗
A big, safe and happy Xmas from The People’s Independent Electorate of Wagga Wagga.
All of my politics news comes from this wonderful place. Every single day. So many smart cookies sharing their knowledge, passion and wit (and there’s nath).
Remember to vote Labor in the HoR and Green in the senate (oh dear) at the Tory wipe-out federal election 2019.
Kayjay
That letter by Gottleibsen is rubbish – pure self interest. Gottleibsen is not a disinterested observer. He runs an investment advisory business. So wealthy self-funded retirees who pay no tax are his bread and butter.
His logic is also flawed.
” Boo is good at picking shares, but his superannuation fund will lose its franking credits unless he shifts the management of his money to the ALP’s mates in industry superannuation funds or selected non-industry funds.
Taxing on the basis of who manages a person’s money is simply not fair.”
Nobody will be forced off anything. Some people will lose an unfair tax write-off that currently gives them an advantage over other investors and other forms of investment. They will then drift back to more efficient unsubsidised forms of investment. Naturally, those who creamed off some of their previous subsidised incomes for themselves will complain.
To any other bludgers who may be spending the holiday alone. I shall not be having any visitors until the end of December, so if anyone feels like chatting, remember that I am always here during the day. 🙂
Oh yes! And many thanks to William Bowe who’s blog is so valued – in his efforts seen and unseen.
And to all other bludgers. WTF are you being so sentimental for!? Christmas is marketing tool used to make you buys things – a symptom (and cause) of all that is wrong in our superficial commercialised materialistic capitalist society. Get a grip. Christ didnt exist, he was invented to make you poor!
On that note I trust you will all be well and as contented as can be during this festive season.
And to bludgers departed, for whatever reason, both temporarily and permanently; well met and fare thee well.
Socrates
Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 8:27 am
Comment #1365
Thanks indeed. I’ll read this again when I get back from the Doctor. Daughter arriving in three minutes.
who’s = whose.
Socrates @ #1461 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 5:27 am
What self serving twaddle fro Gottliebsen. The big winners on the stock market this year have been small and micro-cap companies which don’t pay out dividends let alone franking credits.
The big companies who do pay generous dividends along with franking credits have pretty much all moved backwards as far as their share prices are concerned. What’s the point of gaining a few hundred dollars in credits when they’ve lost thousands in capital value.
Re franking credits: a company pays its tax on its declared profits and pays dividends from what is left. The idea of dividend franking is to avoid double-taxation of company profits distributed as dividends. A shareholder who receives dividends can claim tax paid by the company on the profits behind the dividend against their own income tax liability.
So a shareholder receives a $1,000 dividend. The company has paid corporate tax of 30% in its declared profits, so that $1,000 represents 1/(1-0.3) = $1,428.57 gross profits, including $428.57 in company tax paid. The shareholder can claim this $428.57 against their own income tax liability.
So the company has paid the tax it is legally due to pay. The shareholder just pays the balance of their liability over what the company has already paid. Before Howard and Costello vandalised the system, if the shareholder’s tax liability was less than $428.57, they paid nothing. It made perfect sense, everyone was happy.
However now, after changes introduced by the Howard Government, if the shareholder’s tax liability is less than $428.57, they get a refund of the balance. This is on income that might have been reduced by negative gearing, family trusts or other accounting tricks. Since Howard and Costello had also vandalised the superannuation system, the recipient might also be receiving a tax free super pension.
The correct response of beneficiaries of this system would be to say, “well, it was great while it lasted, getting refunds of tax we didn’t pay, but we all knew it couldn’t last”. Instead, they’re crying blue murder, like it’s the greatest injustice since the Crucifixion.
Well, no sympathy from me (a beneficiary of the system).
This is so idiotic. Kind of almost exactly like:
“Hey guys, asbestos is killing people. We should stop using it, right?”
“But it’s our job to mine, supply, and install asbestos! How could you possibly consider taking that away?”
“Good point. Carry on then.”
lizzie
I believe that there are very many empty apartments in inner London owned by rich Russians – they have them as financial insurance and also as an escape plan if things go really bad in Mother Russia.
Sadly there are many empty apartments in the areas surrounding the burnt out Grenfell Tower.
That back pain article is interesting, and the link to their forthcoming study.
On christmas, religion, retailing and the economy, a few thoughts.
If you want to celebrate the true original meaning of christmas, get cosy with someone you love. It was a pagan fertility festival after all 🙂
Bricks and mortar retailing is on a downward spiral (western) world wide. Internet trading is part of it. Why such high vacancy rates? Because lowering the rentals would force them to revise their property valuations. Local councils base rates on the valuations so they also want them kept high. Both the rentals charged and capital values of our retail property may be more overstated than residential property in Sydney and Melbourne. We may be better off turning some inner buildings back into residential than retail or office use. But too many vested interests want the valuations to remain high.
A drop in retail property valuations was one of the precursors to the last recession in 90/91. It was one of the things that did in the SA State bank. I do not think we are about to go into recession (unless Trump and ScumMo are reelected). But Labor would do well to look at retail rentals, land prices and land use allocation policy when in office after May.
Dave from Wagga
I sincerely hope your newly independent state is not overrun by the Evil Empire on March 23rd!
Dan
Thanks for pointing out the falseness of the specifics of Gottliebsen’s article. I haven’t followed the share market closely this year, so I was only concerned about its in principal flaws. And we botha gree on its motivations.
AR
On coal jobs, I think the solution in the La Trobe, Hunter and central Qld is to assist workers to change jobs. And in the case of central Qld, make sure there are some alternative jobs to transition to.
Steve777
Good summary. I have tried to explain this to anti- Labor family members by just saying that you should not get a tax refund if you didn’t pay the tax. Simplistic I know but the boosters like RG just confuse people – convincing them that there is some great injustice planned.
Maybe I should just use a ‘Sugar Daddy’ analogy!
I really hope Labor use that ‘Sugar Daddy’ line when Morrison and Frydenberg start raiding the Treasury for pre-election goodies !
And CoalMo is a supporter of this Trump. Do not trust USA any more. They do not care about allies.
https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/23/james-mattis-defense-secretary-donald-trump-1-january?amp_js_v=a2&_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fus-news%2F2018%2Fdec%2F23%2Fjames-mattis-defense-secretary-donald-trump-1-january
Gottliebsen’s “open letter”lost me right about here . It also earned him a ‘GAGF you Murdoch Hack’ .
.
.
“Boo is good at picking shares, but his superannuation fund will lose its franking credits unless he shifts the management of his money to the ALP’s mates in industry superannuation funds or selected non-industry funds.
Socrates@8:42am
So are you implying that Christmas is not Jesus birthday?
Are you implying that something is wrong being a Pagan?
poroti
The irony. And to think that the Coalition were so hoping the Banking Royal Commission would expose those evil industry super funds! And in another example of delicious blowback it instead showed much much worse behaviour in the retail funds so beloved by RG and the Murdoch media.
Thanks Socrates! And Merry Xmas to Xanthipe and the other Greek gods and goddesses. 🙂
Socrates @ #1466 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 7:49 am
Yes. Build a domestic industry around renewable energy.
Rocket Rocket
Yes and even before the RC the evil bastards were also making it plain their wish to bork Industry Superannuation to help their mates’ ‘Spiv Super’ .
Ven
So are you implying that Christmas is not Jesus birthday?
No, but you inferred it 🙂 I was stating that Christmas was originally something else entirely. We invented the date of Jesus’ birth because we do not know the real one.
Are you implying that something is wrong being a Pagan?
Not at all. I was advocating taking up a pagan practice. As an atheist myself, its all moot from my viewpoint.
For me the real value of christmas is having a time of year when we all pause to reflect on those who are precious to us, and to be more generous to the rest of our community. That is valid whatever religion you believe in, or don’t believe in. Even atheists
still have families and live in communities. So I celebrate christmas despite being an atheist.
All are worthy and urgent things to address. But it is a little bit like taking on the mafia so entrenched and numerous the tentacles of the private interests and the absence of testicles (I know I know! but the alliteration rhymes) in the public institutions and elected leaders to overcome them.
Boo, and don’t these schmucks the Coalition shills in the media use to push their propaganda barrow always seem to have folksy nicknames? Well I wouldn’t be surprised if Boo was running a Self Managed Super Fund, had arranged his financial affairs to be able to get a probably Part Pension, had a very nice house as another asset, was using his SMSF to invest in property and was a member of the LNP in Queensland. Not to mention that he may well have had a job in the Financial Services or Banking industry before retiring to a life of taxpayer-funded comfort.
If Gottleibsen hadn’t sold his soul to Murdoch I might have taken his complaining more seriously than not very.
I have no doubt that somewhere, somewhen a boy named Jesus was born on the 25th of December.
poroti
And I notice now after the retail funds were so damned there have been a few articles suggesting maybe get rid of Super entirely.
So ‘burn down the house’ is the new plan to destroy the successful industry super funds .
ar@8:41am
West Virginia was once famous for underground coal mining and solid supporters of Democrats because democrats once used to support mining workers. Coal mining caused ‘black lung’ and killed a lot of people but still people preferred coal mining jobs because that is the job unskilled and semi-skilled people can work and a lot West Virginians are poorly educated and poor. However, underground coal mining in West Virginia wound down and there were less and less coal mining jobs. Democrats did not do any thing about it. Then some big corporation found West Virginians mountains have coal although it is not high quality. These corporations went to Republicans and got permission to mine them. How they do is they cut the mountain top and drill through mountain. People got some jobs and they voted for Relublicans. This type of mining is environmentally devastating but corporations were given permission and people got some jobs. I suggest you read John Grisham legal thriller ‘ Grey Mountain’ to know more about this mountain coal mining.
My point is people take life threatening jobs if no other jobs are available and they don’t care about environment.
”
Socrates says:
Monday, December 24, 2018 at 9:04 am
For me the real value of christmas is having a time of year when we all pause to reflect on those who are precious to us, and to be more generous to the rest of our community. That is valid whatever religion you believe in, or don’t believe in. Even atheists
still have families and live in communities. So I celebrate christmas despite being an atheist.
”
Very Good response. Merry Christmas & Happy New year to you.
Merry Christmas & Happy New Year to all PBers irrespective of whether I agree withthem or not. Be kind to each other. Hope the New Year brings good tidings for Australia with a new government.
.
Like father, like son; major eruption of Anak Krakatau in Indonesia the most likely source of tsunamis that have killed at least 200 people in Indonesia:
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/rockyplanet/2018/12/23/surprise-tsunami-hits-indonesia-killing-hundreds/
Here is the Mineral Councils Reachtel poll in FNQ – 2500 respondents, but no hint of voting intention asked. Plus the only 2 questions have a hint of ‘push polling’
If a self funded retiree is in the position where they might lose $10,000 in franking credit refunds – so enough to be significant, just how big it the size of their fund?
I suspect they are planning to live of their returns, including the tax credits and pass on the principle or at least most of it tax free to their family.
More from the unbiased CourierMail story..
More than 2500 respondents found voters in the electorates of Capriconia, Dawson, Flynn and Herbert were more supportive of the coal industry in December than they were in March and October.
And those aged 18-34 – usually those trying to get a job or buy their first home – are most supportive of coalmining.
.
Green activists, many from southern states, have railed against Adani and want to see the end to thermal-coal production.
Senior members of Bill Shorten’s Opposition have publicly stated they do not want Adani to go ahead.
Respondents were asked the same two questions in March, October and December – whether they agreed or disagreed with the statement that the coal industry was an important contributor to the economy of regional Queensland, and if they agreed or disagreed with the statement that the jobs generated by the coal industry were important for regional Queensland.
To both questions, about 60 per cent of respondents strongly agreed – and it has increased over the past few months. Fewer than 10 cent disagreed.
The polling, commissioned by a member of the Minerals Council of Australia, showed support for mining will be a key factor for voters in the four seats at the next election. Herbert is held by Labor but the other three seats are held by the LNP.
The Coalition believes it has a good chance of winning back Herbert.
Jaeger @ #1490 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 5:30 am
Fortunately the son is still a baby and the “major” eruption was only a minor one!
John Reidy says:
Monday, December 24, 2018 at 9:35 am
If a self funded retiree is in the position where they might lose $10,000 in franking credit refunds – so enough to be significant, just how big it the size of their fund?
I suspect they are planning to live of their returns, including the tax credits and pass on the principle or at least most of it tax free to their family.
_____________________________________
That requires at least $23,000 in dividends. That would require about 5,400 CBA shares (for example). Currently worth around $370,000.
Retiree Tax Boo!
😆
We were told super was introduced to reduce the pressure on the budget from people going onto the pension. Clearly butting pressure on the budget by people that have a large capital base is moving who is putting pressure on the budget, but not dealing with the issue.
The idea behind franking credits was to have you or the company pay the tax. Clearly noone paying the tax is perverse and needs to stop.
Thanks Ven. Have a good day all.
Socrates says:
Monday, December 24, 2018 at 8:49 am
Dan
Thanks for pointing out the falseness of the specifics of Gottliebsen’s article. I haven’t followed the share market closely this year, so I was only concerned about its in principal flaws. And we botha gree on its motivations.
AR
On coal jobs, I think the solution in the La Trobe, Hunter and central Qld is to assist workers to change jobs. And in the case of central Qld, make sure there are some alternative jobs to transition to.
———————————————
I know I will get smashed on this. The vast majority of coal produced in Central and North Queensland is coking coal used in metal production.
No coking coal no wind turbines and no electric cars. No steel for solar installation.
Upnorth
Such explanations are never part of polls, unfortunately.