Ipsos and Essential Research closed their accounts for 2018 this week, and their combined effect has been to reduce Labor’s lead to 54.3-45.7 after a blowout to 54.9-45.1 last week. This is good for one Coalition gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. Full results through the link below.
We’re unlikely to see any more poll results until mid-January, although Newspoll should be unloading its quarterly state breakdowns in a week or so, and hopefully a few state voting intention results as well. Nonetheless, things should be pretty active around here over the silly season, as there’s a backlog preselection analysis to attend to, and I should finally get time to attend to my long-promised Morrison-era overhaul of BludgerTrack.
Zoidlord
That’s really an insult to Turnbull, who has brains even if he doesn’t always use them.
“who has brains even if he doesn’t always use them”
I’m not sure he is as smart as the CPG thought, yeah smarter than them, but so is a cactus I have.
Barney in Go Dau @ #1524 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 10:57 am
It is closer than the turn of the twenty first century is to today
It seems also to be a fraction of the time required to plan, pass environmental requirements, build and run any new mine long enough to make any money from, even a coking coal one. Which would probably also be subject to significant public opposition as well.
WeWantPaul
There’s smart, clever and cunning. I’m not fond of cunning, which I suspect is ScoMo.
IoM – the Newcastle steel works closed in 1999. Most coal mines are are much further up the Hunter valley and Bylong, Ulan and others and transported by train to be exported from Newcastle (its the largest coal port in the world). Closure of the coal port would obviously have a major impact but Newcastle is also a large grain port which would remain open presumably. Establishment of an additional international freight port is apparently not an option due the complete botching of the privatisation process.
Socrates and others, re: claiming the dividend imputation credit.
I believe the ALP have cocked this policy up. They have already back-pedalled with regards to aged pensioners. Shortly after announcing this policy they decided that pensioner should not be included and should be able to claim the credit as a cash payment. Unfortunately, this only effects pensioners who were pensioners on or before the 28th of March 2018. Pensioners after this date will suffer under this policy.
Secondly, wealthy people can still get the benefit of the credit if they incur a tax liability. Even from another endeavour. They can use the credit to offset that liability.
Why is this fair? Well, it isn’t, because a person who doesn’t have the tax liability cannot get any value from the credit. Ie if you are poor you will miss out and are worse off. However, if you are wealthy you go on your merry way with no difference to you financial wellbeing under this policy.
The ALP should give nobody the benefit of the imputation credit or give it to everyone. They should not make poor people worse off compared to wealthier people.
As for Gottliebson’s article, he is a wanker and doing a little ALP bashing. His clients will be no worse off under this policy.
Quoll @ #1553 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 7:43 am
If it works!
I hope it does, but …
Actually, I think John Howard ACQUIRED bushy eyebrows, to make him look like Menzies.
I had suspicions that he used mascara on them to make them look darker and bushier than they naturally were.
…it used to be a bit of a Thing back in the day to say of someone who aspired to be PM, “Well, he has the eyebrows for it” – meaning they were Menzian.
WeWantPaul @ #1528 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 11:02 am
Not actually so easy. But in any case, the first and most critical step has to be to eliminate all burning of coal for electricity generation. Replace it with anything else that generates less C02. Use renewables where possible, of course – but also use nuclear** and gas as a transitional fuel. Then replace the gas.
Having an ultimate goal of 100% renewable generation is fine, but how we get there is critically important. Because the real goal has nothing to do with renewables – the real goal is to minimize total C02 emissions.
** Not in Australia, of course – we’re too late to go down that route.
PeeBee,
I’m sorry, but anyone sorting out their retirement finances after the 28th of March 2018 and including dividend imputation as a major part of it, is a f#cking idiot. 🙂
Who are these “ poor people” who own shares and will be impacted by Labor’s policy?
And don’t fall for Tory spin and confuse poor people with people with low taxable incomes.
any poor people with shares are most likely much poorer today than they were six months ago.
That is nothing to do with Bill Shorten, though Morrison would most likely blame him.
“** Not in Australia, of course – we’re too late to go down that route”
I don’t think any intelligent country is going down that route. There are some a long long way down it that wish they weren’t.
BIgD, ‘I’m sorry, but anyone sorting out their retirement finances after the 28th of March 2018 and including dividend imputation as a major part of it, is a f#cking idiot. ‘
Strange comment. The benefit of the imputation is simply not available to a retiree unless they make a lot of money. Making a lot of money means you won’t be eligible for an age pension.
“There’s smart, clever and cunning. I’m not fond of cunning, which I suspect is ScoMo.”
I’m not sure ScoMo is any of the above. I will say however that his ability to get rid of Turnbull and make Dutton the bad guy was pure evil genius. Since he became PM everything has turned to muppet. Makes me wonder if he didn’t have some help with the get rid of Turnbull and make Dutton the fallguy strategy that he no longer has access to, or that he isn’t listening to.
zoomster @ #1559 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 11:59 am
You mean, like this?
Morrison has rat cunning, as is evidenced by how he became PM, how he got the seat of Cook and how he promoted exploiting community concerns regarding asylum seekers and immigration for political gain.
The only value I can see in dividend imputation in the current world economy is as a startup booster, say get your first 5 years after IPO.
It is a stupid idea where separate legal entities get to pretend they are not. It is pretty simply you want to be taxed only once put it all in the same legal entity you want to be taxed twice put it in different entities.
And yes i’d just tax everything in a trust at top marginal rates +5% every year, their use would drop quite fast I thin.
And no I wouldn’t allow tax consolidation or transfer of losses it is a silly accountants idea.
Zoom
“I had suspicions that he used mascara on them to make them look darker and bushier than they naturally were.”
That and capped teeth / cosmetic dental work, padded shoulders in his jackets & elevator shoes!
“how he got the seat of Cook”
I know ‘how’ he got it but I’m not at all sure where the power came from and why that power chose Morrison.
Steve777
Rather than ‘rat cunning’ how he got the seat shows he is a vicious gutter dwelling thug.
WeWantPaul @ #1563 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 12:04 pm
China and India are both going down that route on a massive scale, which is just as well. There is no way they could eliminate coal anytime soon without nuclear.
Pour some beer on his head.
Fixes everything.
Then we have this press release from Scott Morrison dated 27/2/2012:
https://noplaceforsheep.com/2012/02/28/scott-morrison-and-diseased-asylum-seekers/
Cultivating moral panic for political advantage. Funnily enough, the release has disappeared from Morrison’s website.
Here is the refutation by an infectious diseases specialist: https://www.crikey.com.au/2012/02/29/dear-scott-morrison-your-claims-of-asylum-seeker-disease-show-no-medical-knowledge-leroy-needs-a-table-reconfigured-in-the-middle/
“China and India are both going down that route on a massive scale”
Neither have to really care about the population, about pushback if there is a disaster or clean up costs. So I stick to my no intelligent nation conclusion. And any time I actually do any research neither China or India is half as stupid as people try to claim.
PeeBee @ #1564 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 8:05 am
Under the context of minimising your taxable income so you pay no tax, which is the issue, how is this strange?
I would like to point out that the Sydney Diocese of the Anglican Church does not reflect the views of all Australian Anglicans. It is worth noting that one of the lecturers at St. Francis Theological College in Brisbane is the Rev. Dr. Jo. Inkpin. An ordained Anglican Priest, married to an ordained female Anglican Priest (both ordained in the UK), Dr. Inkpin started life as Jonathon Inkpin and is now known as Josephine (Jo) Inkpin with the full support of the Archbishop of Brisbane, Rev. Dr. Phillip Aspinal. Her story can be read here
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-23/australias-first-transgender-priest/9477100
As I said when people tell me India or China are doing really stupid things, almost always it is the person that is stupid:
“In October 2010, India drew up a plan to reach a nuclear power capacity of 63 GW in 2032,[5] but after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan people around proposed Indian nuclear power plant sites have launched protests, raising questions about atomic energy as a clean and safe alternative to fossil fuels.[6] There have been mass protests against the French-backed 9,900 MW Jaitapur Nuclear Power Project in Maharashtra and the Russian-backed 2,000 MW Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant in Tamil Nadu. The state government of West Bengal, has also refused permission to a proposed 6,000 MW facility near the town of Haripur that intended to host six Russian reactors.[6] A Public Interest Litigation (PIL) has also been filed against the government’s civil nuclear programme at the Supreme Court.[6][7] “
WeWantPaul @ #1575 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 12:33 pm
I believe you are the only one here claiming that China and India are “stupid” 🙁
‘context of minimising your taxable income so you pay no tax, which is the issue, how is this strange?’
That is not strange. It is also not the issue. The issue that I am pointing out is AlP policy is that wealthy people continue use to get the benefit of the imputation credit whereas poor people don’t.
“I believe you are the only one here claiming that China and India are “stupid” ”
if they were doing what you said, yeah, but it turns out the stupid one isn’t India, I haven’t checked to see if you are wrong on China too. But not having to care about the populations view, not really caring whether or not you inflict a nuclear disaster on your population, and not really caring if you have to cleanup or not at the end, probably makes for suboptimal decision making.
PeeBee @ #1581 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 8:46 am
The point of the policy is that the company tax is paid once.
The effect of the current policy is that in some cases it is not paid at all. 🙂
PeeBee @ #1549 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 10:48 am
This much, I agree with.
Even the capitalist, tax-hating USA doesn’t have this
tax breakhandout. The whole ‘double-taxation’ argument is so nonsensical even the Republicans won’t touch it.A fair dinkum flip-flop:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jzWDckIEGk
PeeBee
When there ceases to be tax your argument would have some merit.
Although those heavy black frames are now fashionable, IMO the rimless style suited ScoMo better. His eyes were’t so concealed and he looked more human (not that he cares what I think, of course).
So we’ve worked out it wasn’t India that was stupid but people misrepresenting the current state in India, lets turn to see if the authoritarian govt in China is as silly as some say:
“China’s National Development and Reform Commission has indicated the intention to raise the percentage of China’s electricity produced by nuclear power from the current 3% to 6% by 2020”
Wow 6% pretty large … no wait.
“(compared to 20% in the United States and 74% in France)”
So quite a lot of reactors but when you can site them without caring what the population thinks, and have them go bad, without really caring what the population thinks, not a very big part of the Chinese energy picture. Some with a strong renewable bias, have claimed, although it has not been officially announced, that France with 74% nuclear power has commenced a massive and hugely expensive program that will see all their reactors decommissioned one after another over decades.
But back to China:
“The nuclear safety plan of 2013 stated that beyond 2016 only Generation III plants would be started, and until then only a very few Generation II+ plants would be started.[22]
As of October 2016, all plants started between 2008 and 2010 were operating other than the six imported reactors, four AP1000s and two EPRs. Due to a reduced number of build starts since then, the 58 GW of nuclear capacity in service by 2020 target appears unlikely to be met.”
So the massive increase from 3 to 6% isn’t actually even happening.
So then I’ll stick with my ‘when I go to research whether China and / or India are doing really stupid things it usually turns out the one making the claim is the stupid one.
Socrates @ #1482 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 9:04 am
Any excuse for a party. We had a memorable one when the canine in the shared house I was in at the time had pups!
Mr Fixer Pyne started wearing these glasses when his brother from another mother in the UK the MP Michael Gove stepped out in these.
?zoom=2.625&resize=412%2C500&ssl=1
Pyne (add https to the start of the address below
://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2013/11/25/1385340033722/Christopher-Pyne-010.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=4ad63f6819582c2689422c0fd124d53d
Gove
PeeBee
another thing; if it caused you so much stress adjust you share port folio; there are heaps of shares that don’t give full imputation credit.
a.r
That is where the wingers that don’t want the company or the individual to pay the tax will take the debate. People will start asking why shoudn’t both pay.
Btw, is Gupta going to use coking coal for his steel or is he going for hydrogen?
The Liberal Party of Australia message:
“Terms, conditions, fees and charges apply. Batteries not included. Leader may change without notice. May contain traces of right wing nuts”.
Always read the fine print before casting your vote.
frednk
This ‘people’ has asked that question since it was introduced.
.
P.S. To the Bludger panel . Having avoided the boob tube lately I have not seen Pastor Fozzie’s new spectacles. Nor have I managed to find a picture online. Some one have a link ?
WeWantPaul @ #1582 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 12:46 pm
You definitely need to do more research …
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/08/china-india-will-lead-global-nuclear-power-production-growth-experts.html
https://in.reuters.com/article/india-russia/russia-signs-pact-for-six-nuclear-reactors-on-new-site-in-india-idINKCN1MF11M
However, you are correct that India has scaled back its nuclear program. Instead, it is likely to burn more coal …
https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/nuclear/india-cuts-back-nuclear-power-plants-will-likely-turn-coal/
So you may also be correct in calling them “stupid”.
Christmas is not and never has been a “pagan festival”. Sure the date may have been pinched from some Pagan ritual, but that which Christians celebrate as Christmas is the incarnation of the divine in human form. Others may continue to celebrate the Pagan ritual under the guise of “Christmas”, as is their right, however be in no doubt that for Christians, what we celebrate on the 25th December is the birth of Jesus, the Christ, the Son of God.
P.S. I know it is not his actual birthday but that doesn’t stop me from celebrating his birth on the 25th December in the same way that we celebrate the birthday of the Queen on second Monday in June or the 1st Monday in October if you are a Queenslander, rather than the 21st April – it is the event which is important not the date.
From Roman Quaedvlieg to Morrison over his defence of George Christensen.
“Wait, what? You publicly backed in Dutton wrongly smearing me under parliamentary privilege, but you criticise the media for asking genuine questions about allegations of a politician behaving inappropriately or illegally? What kind of crazy hypocrisy.. “
Upnorth @ #1499 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 9:47 am
Fair enough. Although other sources for the reduction of iron ore to the metal are in the wings, coking coal is the only one widely used as far as I know.
For Qld it is, per year:
106 000 hard coking coal
43 000 soft coking coal
59 000 thermal coal
So, circa 3/4 coking coal.
Isn’t another plausible explanaation of “stupid” power policy in Russia, China and India to say that their policy is the product of a corrupting of the political system in all three cases? Could be the same reason elsewhere….
https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1076731884812582912/K5ZBbqYv?format=jpg&name=600×314