Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

The final Ipsos poll for the year fails to replicate its unusually strong result for the Coalition last time.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, one last Ipsos poll for the year, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from an anomalous 52-48 a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 36%, Labor up three to 37% and the Greens are steady on 13%. The leaders’ ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 47% and up three on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 50%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-35 to 46-37. The poll also finds opinion evenly divided on Labor’s negative gearing policy, with 43% in favour and 44% opposed, while 48% oppose its related cut in the capital gains tax discount, with 43% in support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

786 comments on “Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Yeah defs can’t have the sleezebag resign they need his vote, if the P is to sit again like they promised. If he does a March not sit again election is all but guaranteed.

    Imagine trying to hang him out to dry and not piss him off enough that he just sends his letter to the speaker. some much excellent government.

  2. “I would imagine that it is entirely up to the GG, but that a letter to the GG signed by a majority of either house requesting that that house be recalled would be actioned by the GG.”

    I’m not sure this GG would even bother to read it. He has silently watched as the Government has selectively and with explicit partisan bias ignored the constitution anytime it suited them. You don’t get any worse than that as GG. Imagine failing in a job you really can’t possibly fail in.

  3. @Steve

    😀

    Josh Butler
    ‏Verified account @JoshButler
    31s31 seconds ago

    I forced a bot to watch 1000 hours of Australian pickup lines and then asked it to write a thirsty text exchange of its own. Here is the first page.

  4. “Hopefully a request was put in for the sugar baby to come to the country as an au pair or something”

    I imagine that is the traditional way the Liberal Party would handle this sort of thing. I’m sure Dutton would be prepared to assist.

  5. Section 5 of the constitution:
    The Governor–General may appoint such times for holding the sessions of the Parliament as he thinks fit, and may also from time to time, by Proclamation or otherwise, prorogue the Parliament, and may in like manner dissolve the House of Representatives.

    However it would be an extraordinary intervention by the GG to do this without the direction of the executive. The Speaker can recall parliament but this would also be extraordinary if it was not requested by the executive

  6. The Liberals writing the mythology of why the lost the election ? I truly hope the believe it was all because of Truffles.

    But first ‘The Dream” before reality hit 😆

    The base is back. The ousting of the dastardly leftist Malcolm Turnbull has resulted in the single largest bump in the polls in Australian political history and the Coalition is now poised to take the 2019 general election with an 8 per cent swing towards it.

    A jubilant Prime Minister Scott Morrison stands shoulder to shoulder with the freshly minted Premier of Victoria, Matthew Guy, to announce live on television that the Paris Agreement lays shredded at the bottom of the rubbish bin, stained with the tears of hippies. The words “fair dinkum” echo throughout every true blue Aussie household as schoolchildren salute the framed photos of the 35 brave men and women who voted against Malcolm Turnbull in the August leadership spill.

    https://outline.com/6XgJkv

  7. sprocket_
    says:
    Monday, December 17, 2018 at 12:59 pm
    There will always be more Bonking under a Coalition Government
    __________________________
    Sprocket has never bonked anything.

  8. S777

    Caption: “One if these creatures eats, roots and leaves. Which one?”

    “One if these creatures eats, roots and leaves. The other one is a wombat.’

  9. “However it would be an extraordinary intervention by the GG to do this without the direction of the executive”

    Particularly if this wombat muppet resigns it would be 100% reasonable to suggest that the PM recall parliament to show he has the confidence of the house, but I think you are right, if Mr Shorten could suggest it, and explicitly thereby put pressure on the lib fake-indies, he might be able to get the numbers to write to the GG telling him he could move a motion of no confidence.

    Forcing Sharkie and Phelps to either explicitly endorse this muppet Government or support a no confidence motion would be a master stroke either way it went. Also now really with the chance of the Govt’s election timetable playing out really reducing fast, they prime motivation of the indies to delay the election and stay on the payroll has probably faded as well. If they were smart they’d support the no confidence in the Govt and explicitly go for a ‘vote for ind fake-libs’ to teach the LNP a lesson.

    Also hijacking and humiliating the Govt would have to be fantastic for Phelp’s and Sharkie’s chances of reelection, and really reduce their biggest weakness, being their support of the LNP worst Govt ever.

  10. Why is the guy resigning, it’s not illegal to cheat on your wife. What are we puritans? He should seek re-election, stand up proudly and say, yeah I did that shit. What happens between him and his wife has got nothing to do with us.

  11. Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack has known for two weeks about allegations that triggered the sudden resignation of Nationals MP Andrew Broad from the ministry, after New Idea published a story alleging he used a dating site to find “sugar babes” while on an overseas taxpayer-funded work trip.

  12. Echoes of the Daryl Maguire scandal here in Wagga.
    Rural conservative MP in a ‘safe seat’ caught out.
    Refuses to resign.
    Digs in.
    Rural folk in electorate appalled at behaviour.
    Forced out.
    Smashed by an independent.

  13. OC
    It a majority turned up and declared Parliament to be sitting then there is fuck all anybody except the GG can do about it.
    But most of the ‘rules’ are conventions rather than explicit rules in the Consitution.
    Even a very tame GG would think twice of ignoring the wishes of a majority of MPs.

  14. a story alleging he used a dating site to find “sugar babes” while on an overseas taxpayer-funded work trip.
    ______________________
    It’s just good OH&S to de-stress while travelling internationally. I like it.

  15. Good grief. Has pontificating Paul Kelly had the word from Rupert ? This reads like it.

    Shorten’s fix for unfair Australia

    PAUL KELLY
    Bill Shorten’s speech to the ALP national conference reveals a politically formidable agenda years in the making.

    Bill Shorten’s keynote speech to the ALP national conference reveals a politically formidable agenda years in the making from a superior Labor electoral machine.

    Shorten’s message to the party and public is that Labor is united, stable, determined and ready to govern. As leader he has tapped into the changing mood of Australia, its economic fears, its social hopes and its environmental concerns, all presented under the over-arching banner of fairness and attacking inequality.

    Anything Shorten loses in popularity he wins back in political craft…………………………………….

    https://outline.com/5hMyDS

  16. From New Idea

    Amy said she agreed to dine with him because they had been speaking via text message for over a month.

    “When he first messaged I checked his profile and it said he was 36 years old and from Australia. Other men that message appeared to be a lot older, so I thought I would see what he was like, and at first, the conversation was really normal. He would tell me about his weekend and going to the cinema.”

    But shortly after the romantic date was locked in, Broad bombarded the expat with text messages that quickly turned to a more sexual nature.

    At one point the man who describes himself as “deeply committed to supporting Australian farming” on his website, wrote, “I’m an Aussie lad, I know how to ride a horse, fly a plane and f–k my woman. My intentions are completely dishonourable.”

  17. “Why is the guy resigning, it’s not illegal to cheat on your wife.”

    Your scheduled reminder that Dastyari did nothing at all wrong, didn’t even cheat on his wife.

  18. WeWantPaul
    says:
    Monday, December 17, 2018 at 1:09 pm
    “Why is the guy resigning, it’s not illegal to cheat on your wife.”
    Your scheduled reminder that Dastyari did nothing at all wrong, didn’t even cheat on his wife.
    _______________________
    Well that’s a good point. Dastyari and Broad have been shamed into resigning. Broad’s obvious fault was hooking up with a dating up and offending a woman. He should have sought the company of trained professionals.

  19. David Crowe
    ‏Verified account @CroweDM
    6m6 minutes ago

    UPDATED: Nationals leader Michael McCormack knew of Andrew Broad matter for two weeks. He asked him to refer it to police: “I want to make sure that all of my ministers, all of my members are doing the right thing.”

  20. ‘…and f–k my woman’

    The Nats are putting up stiff competition against the Liberals to see which Party is the natural party for arseholes.

  21. Michael Koziol
    ‏Verified account @michaelkoziol
    6m6 minutes ago

    As the song goes, there’s no aphrodisiac like whispering g’day mate

  22. Andrew Broad was representing Australia overseas, paid for by taxpayers. I suspect neither were getting ‘value for money’ based on this vignette from New Idea

    “According to Amy, Broad later sent her a text message saying, “I’ve booked a flashy room to seduce you back to.”

    “He was always so forward and cocky,” she says, explaining that her profile made it clear she would not be intimate on dates.

    “He was so sure of himself.”

    Keeping up her end of the deal, Amy decided to give Andrew a chance and met him as agreed at the exclusive sky bar with city views.

    “He kept commenting on prices and how expensive they were,” she says. “It made everything so awkward from the start. He told me he was in Hong Kong for a conference but he shouldn’t have been here at all. He kept saying that he was very important and that when he left he was going to have to throw away his phone. He referred to himself as James Bond numerous times.”

  23. What’s the timeline of this? If New Idea has a comment from Broad, he knew about the story weeks ago. Why wait until today to act?

  24. “He should have sought the company of trained professionals.”

    They are running a business as professionals they have standards there is no way this clown would meet.

  25. Now headline in ‘The Australian’ is that McCormack knew for two weeks. Lots of entrails about Broad’s leading role in buggering up Barnaby’s leadership.

  26. “her profile made it clear she would not be intimate on dates”

    Lols how did this clown not read the basics, you don’t have to do a lot of research to know that sugar babes have most of the cards and unless you are giving them an apartment and a car, you would find a professional, if you can find one of them with low enough standards to accept you as a client, charges a lot lot lot less.

  27. Andrew Broad probably saw this approach work at the B&S shindig in Deniliquin- doesn’t translate to HongKong…. once again, hat tip to New Idea

    “He gave me his election speech as to why he should be voted in by the public and I stopped listening because he was so arrogant,” she says.

    “He kept grabbing my hand and putting it on his leg, so I excused myself and went to the bathroom and when I came back I told him I was leaving.”

    Amy says she received a final text thanking her for dinner and she then decided to block Andrew.

    “He led me to believe he was younger and he wasn’t pleasant to be around. I know some people wouldn’t understand the premise of the site but in a lot of cases like mine, it’s simply dinner and a chat, and that’s not what he was looking for.”

  28. Boerwar @ #372 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 1:12 pm

    ‘…and f–k my woman’

    The Nats are putting up stiff competition against the Liberals to see which Party is the natural party for arseholes.

    If we work it out on a per elected MP basis, rather than absolute values, and when you consider Barnaby (who is my representative in federal government, may the lord have mercy on my soul) I reckon the Nationals have the game sewn up.

  29. Boerwar @ #377 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 1:15 pm

    Now headline in ‘The Australian’ is that McCormack knew for two weeks. Lots of entrails about Broad’s leading role in buggering up Barnaby’s leadership.

    Highly likely the CPG knew about this for some time as well…..just saying.

    If a senior Labor person had been up to this sort of alleged stuff…..well…..kick em to political death.

  30. Cud Chewer
    says:
    Monday, December 17, 2018 at 1:18 pm
    Nath the troll defends Broad. Had it been a Labor guy cheating…
    ________________________________
    Shut up. You are just angry MT introduced a great NBN project for half the cost of Labor’s exorbitant proposals.

  31. The other political question is why Broad was in Hong Kong? Details of the purpose of the visit and what he did and who he met to advance Australian interests might prove challenging questions.

  32. If this had all been at Broads’s own time and expense it would be purely a private matter and a reflection on Broad’s character, but not his fitness for office. As with Joyce, it was paying for it with taxpayer funds that crossed the line.

  33. nath
    The hypocrisy is pretty bad. Traditional home values moralising makes you a fair target if you don’t follow them. And the misuse of taxpayers funds.

  34. If the picture from New Idea is at all current or accurate, I’m not sure Andrew could have closed the sugar daddy deal even with an apartment she could live in for free. That he thought for a moment he would get daddy babe sugar play time for the price of a dinner he is too stupid for words.

  35. well if he’s misused funds then fair enough. we don’t need wowsers telling people how to live. Maybe they had an agreement and the wife also had a ‘pass’ to play around. You cant judge a relationship until you are in it.

  36. “we don’t need wowsers telling people how to live”

    You need to explain that to our Prime Muppet and the evangelical scum that want exceptions and privilege to be allowed to discriminate against other Australian’s based purely on a desire to tell other people how they should live. You aren’t a very good troll or are you dumber than this failed sugar daddy idiot you are defending so hard. Lols, keep the laughs running sugarNath.

  37. The proper role of a Governor-General is to do as little intervention as possible unless he or she has absolutely no choice. And then to do what they need to do in an open and transparent and, if necessary, courageous way.

    I (and many others) will never forgive Kerr for not only intervening prematurely but for doing it in an utterly devious and deceptive way.

    There is no pressing cause for the Governor-General to intervene before the next election. The only reason would be if he had good cause to actually believe that the Government did not have the confidence of the House. This would require a sufficient number of the cross-bench, along with the Opposition, to actually inform him that this is likely and should either be tested on the floor of the House or at an election. The mere change in numbers would not justify the GG making the inquiry if there is no clear evidence otherwise.

    Much as I would like to see this clown circus gone and gone for good, it would not be good if it happened at the cost of our institutions.

  38. WWP I have no idea what you are going on about, I’m not defending him hard at all, I like sugarNath though. And Im not even a troll. Im trollish.

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