Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

The final Ipsos poll for the year fails to replicate its unusually strong result for the Coalition last time.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, one last Ipsos poll for the year, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from an anomalous 52-48 a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 36%, Labor up three to 37% and the Greens are steady on 13%. The leaders’ ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 47% and up three on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 50%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-35 to 46-37. The poll also finds opinion evenly divided on Labor’s negative gearing policy, with 43% in favour and 44% opposed, while 48% oppose its related cut in the capital gains tax discount, with 43% in support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

786 comments on “Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Murphy:

    Morrison government has set aside $131m over seven years from 2018-19 (and $10.1m per year ongoing from 2025-26) to “support measures to improve energy affordability, reliability and sustainability”.

    This includes its controversial commitment to underwrite new power generation, including coal, and an advertising campaign to tell everyone how marvelous everything is.

  2. “Labor can now legally stop Adani if this turns out to be accurate. In the meantime its delayed.”

    Good news. If they have done the fast and dirty on their groundwater plan, and cant meet the regulators conditions then the project is fwarked. If Libs are in power next year they would just change the regulatory requirements. ALP creating and EPA and tightening things up makes it very unlikely they would do same. Be interesting to see if what finance Adani have now falls over??

    Seems to me that Adani’s main game for a while is to try and frame their “approvals” as an asset thats worth something in and of itself. This will knock a hole in that.

  3. @Bevan Shields

    Question: Should Andrew Broad resign from Parliament?
    Deputy PM Michael McCormack: “That’s a matter for Mr Broad”
    #auspol

  4. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/16/divestment-fossil-fuel-industry-trillions-dollars-investments-carbon

    Australia – and particularly Western Australia, Queensland and NSW – is heavily over-invested in fossil fuels. The LNP want to deepen this over-investment by committing taxpayer funds to coal. This is to throw good money after bad for the sake of ideological/political tokens.

    We really need to diversify our economy and our national investment options.

    This should be seen as a political and economic imperative.

  5. Rob Stott

    Verified account

    @Rob_Stott

    Just a reminder that Andrew Broad – just like Barnaby – was a great defender of ‘traditional marriage’ before the postal survey

  6. Good to see that Mr Shorten is going after $7 billion in stolen Super. Let’s hope there is a spike in white collar jailings to go with it.

  7. Lol, just when there might have been a positive story for the govt to take up the headlines for a day or two, they lose a Minister. Can’t remember a more accident-prone outfit.

  8. “Unbelievable. The government tries to crank up their “better economic manager” story, and on the very day they have some legitimately good economic news to talk about in the form of a rapidly improving budget position, yet another cheating, lying hypocrite minister caught with his pants down ensures the news cycle coming into Xmas will be dominated by his antics. Shorten is blessed by fate it seems.”

    Firstly they don’t have a ‘better economic manager’ story, they have lies. They don’t have a better budget position they have projections that are the work of Treasury headed by a partisan hack especially chosen for the task. Shorten starts pretty solid, if not radical enough for some of the tastes here, but in comparison it is impossible not to shine against this muppet Government.

  9. From Urban Dictionary:

    sugar baby
    A young female or male who is financially pampered/cared for by a sugar daddy or sugar mama in exchange for companionship (i.e. sexual favors).

    George bought his sugar baby a new iPhone, brand new lapop, and a nice flat overlooking the water after he gave her a decent humping last night.

  10. Late riser @10:29
    “On or before 2019 March 30, Britain will decide for one of the following:
    a) Hard Brexit
    b) Soft Brexit
    c) Postponed Brexit – Negotiations Continue
    d) Postponed Brexit – New referendum
    e) Withdrawn Brexit
    f) Something else”
    I think the UK is unable to decide on anything on this matter. I think the the EU will say WTTE
    ‘We’ve negotiated for 2 years with people who cannot be said to represent the UK. You have only three options, exit on the terms your Govt has agreed, Stay in or get out ‘ They might suggest that a truly democratic solution would be to let the people decide via an urgent referendum now they know the real choices that they have, which they didn’t 2 yrs ago. If they’re very kind they might offer to let UK stay on the current arrangements until the results of the referendum are known.
    The point is , the UK Govt has no real choices in the matter, because they don’t control the Commons. Does this remind anyone of 1975 Australia? Should the crown dismiss the GOvt, and order fresh elections, in effect, force a referendum.

  11. McCormack has a knack of drawing out a point, doesn’t he?

    We are getting on with the job of rolling out the water infrastructure that the country is needed for many, many years, we are getting on with the job of building Australia, those are the sorts of things that I want to be focused on, not these sorts of issues that quite frankly distract from otherwise what has been a very good government and is a good government, and will be a good government going forward.”

  12. Just for young Andy …. (Lyrics – American Dream by Crosby Stills Nash and Young)

    I used to see you on every T.V
    Your smiling face looked back at me
    I used to see you on every T.V
    Your smiling face looked back at me

    Then they caught you with the girl next door
    People’s money piled on the floor
    Accusations that you try to deny
    Revelations and rumors begin to fly

    Now you think about reaching out
    Try to get some help from above
    Now you think about reaching out
    Try to get some help from above

    Reporters crowd around your house
    Going through your garbage like a pack of hounds
    Speculating what they may find out
    It don’t matter now, you’re all washed up

  13. Katharine Murphy
    (@murpharoo)
    Bit more on the looming refugee debate: @gedkearney will move the motion this afternoon critical of the government’s handling of offshore detention @AmyRemeikis #auspol

  14. So, the AFP may be investigating possible blackmail by the sugar baby and possible fraud for misuse of Commonwealth funds by the sugar daddy.

    Those of you who missed Broad’s scintillating contribution since September might wonder what he was doing with his time when was not going bonkers in Honkers.

    He was an assistant minister to the Deputy Prime Minister.

  15. So if Broad resigns from Parliament can the opposition call for a vote of no confidence even though the Parliament is in recess until next year?

    Or would the GG call in the PM for a chat about whether an election be called sooner rather than later wrt confidence in the Parliament, etc.

  16. Is there anyone in Australia that believes the texts sent to one of Rupert’s propaganda slaves were really meant for someone else? How bad a scumbag do you need to be to get so angry with your own side’s propaganda machine that you send that kind of filth? And if you were really unhappy isn’t the smart thing to work up through your organisation until someone can get hold of Rupert, they probably could have had her sacked that day with the right approach.

  17. So………

    Country Boy Sex Scandal on the day the govt dumps MYEFO to distract from the ALP Conference.

    Certainly going to achieve the distraction objective wot!! 🙂

    FFS people, you just could not get away with this if you were writing the screen-play for a political comedy. Suspension of disbelief is one thing, but the goings on of Morrison’s Muppet’s have really been pushing the outer limits of plausibility. 🙂

  18. ‏@samanthamaiden
    12m12 minutes ago

    Nationals leader now enthusiastically and repeatedly naming the journalist who got a message about “feminist cunts” while not naming the bloke who sent the message about bitchslapping feminists

  19. ‘Akubra says:
    Monday, December 17, 2018 at 12:41 pm

    So if Broad resigns from Parliament can the opposition call for a vote of no confidence even though the Parliament is in recess until next year?

    Or would the GG call in the PM for a chat about whether an election be called sooner rather than later wrt confidence in the Parliament, etc.’

    I am not sure what the process is for parliament to recall itself rather than the executive recalling parliament. I believe, but I am not certain, that if a majority of parliamentarians turn up, they can open the House and get on with it. I don’t think that there is nothing in the Consitution that says that only the Executive can determine when Parliament sits – or even where.

  20. McCormack

    I’m doing my very best as leader to ensure that we are focused on the people we serve to ensure that we stop focusing on ourselves, we do the right thing, we make sure that we are answerable and accountable and that is why I have taken swift and decisive action I have over the past 24 hours, and I will continue to make sure that I lead a party that encourages women to not only join our party but also put their hand up for public life.”

    Given that McCormack said earlier that he learnt about this issue “a couple of weeks ago” the “swift and decisive action” seems to have been taken when it became obvious New Idea magazine was about to publish.

  21. I believe, but I am not certain, that if a majority of parliamentarians turn up, they can open the House and get on with it.

    I would imagine that it is entirely up to the GG, but that a letter to the GG signed by a majority of either house requesting that that house be recalled would be actioned by the GG.

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