Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

The final Ipsos poll for the year fails to replicate its unusually strong result for the Coalition last time.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, one last Ipsos poll for the year, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from an anomalous 52-48 a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 36%, Labor up three to 37% and the Greens are steady on 13%. The leaders’ ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 47% and up three on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 50%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-35 to 46-37. The poll also finds opinion evenly divided on Labor’s negative gearing policy, with 43% in favour and 44% opposed, while 48% oppose its related cut in the capital gains tax discount, with 43% in support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

786 comments on “Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Andrew Broad didn’t seem to have any issues in telling others how to live.

    “Mr Broad was the first Coalition MP to call for former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce to resign in February after details of an affair with staffer Vikki Campion became public”

  2. Strong governments can withstand sex scandals. They will bend in the breeze and then got on with it.

    For weak governments, they prove fatal …. one more sign that they are rotting .. and the tree comes tumbling down.

  3. Just because I don’t think people should resign for cheating doesn’t mean im not enjoying this idiot and his fucked up text messages which are a delight.

  4. One of Michaelia Cash’s ‘brilliant’ efforts, which did indeed lead to worse safety outcomes.

    The previous Labor government established a Road Safety Remuneration Tribunal to set pay rates due to a studied link between low rates of pay for owner-drivers and worse safety outcomes. The Turnbull government abolished the body when some owner-drivers complained that mandating certain rates of pay would put them at a competitive disadvantage.

  5. nath @ #394 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 12:28 pm

    Maybe they had an agreement and the wife also had a ‘pass’ to play around.

    Maybe they did. Though on the balance of the probabilities I’d tend to doubt it.

    Doubly so given he’s one of those outspoken “traditional family values” types. Which an open marriage is decidedly not. So either no such agreement exists, or Broad is a massive hypocrite, liar, and fraud for advocating a lifestyle that he doesn’t even live himself.

    And being a hypocrite, liar, and fraud can rightfully have severe consequences if you stake your career on public service (or also if you don’t). As can emotionally traumatizing your spouse.

    You cant judge a relationship until you are in it.

    Sure, that’s why I plan to follow the wife’s judgement. She’s the only (potential) victim here. If her view, based upon her understanding of the relationship, is that the cheating was an unexpected betrayal and that Broad should be drawn and quartered for it, I’m fine to stand by that assessment. Same deal if she wants to say “it’s fine, we have an understanding on these things”.

    The point is, listen to the actual victim.

  6. Barney in Go Dau @ #213 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 11:31 am

    As was always likely to be the case, a smaller university willing to sell their credibility.

    I don’t think this will do much to encourage students into the regions.

    Ramsay Centre finds home for western civilisation degree in Wollongong

    University to take up offer of $50m centre after it was rejected by ANU amid concerns about academic freedom

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/17/ramsay-centre-finds-home-for-western-civilisation-degree-in-wollongong

    This doesn’t surprise me. After the Judy Wilyman PhD fiasco in 2016, the School of Humanities at Wollongong, particularly “Professor of Cultural Studies” (and ex-Physicist) Brian Martin, couldn’t get much other external funding. I suspect that neither The (quite decent) Science & Biomedical Faculties at UoW, or the Ramsay Brethren would be impressed.

  7. Re Broad and the wombat he could not find a lump of coal proving he and his mates are a waste of space bring on the election asap.

  8. Bilko,

    Her opening line might have been,

    “Is that a lump of coal in your pocket, or are you just pleased to see me?”

  9. Boerwar, I have now watched the video of Europe’s changing borders and populations, the one you posted over the weekend. Thanks for that! The limitations of a video quickly become apparent if you want to step/reverse a year at a time. Nevertheless, it is fascinating and I have it bookmarked. (I hope one day it gets reworked with a total population graph across the top with a moving cursor to keep pace with the years. (log population versus linear time))

    For any who might be interested and who missed it here is the link again.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY9P0QSxlnI&feature=youtu.be

  10. poroti at 1:08 pm quoting Paul Kelly.

    “Anything Shorten loses in popularity he wins back in political craft.”

    I still get a bit of a surprise when someone in the CPG points out something obvious they have spent years being wilfully blind to.

  11. I suspect David Hurley was quietly seething for being used first to upstage the ALP Conference, then to have to stand there while ScoMo berated Her Majesty’s Opposition, and finally being chosen without input from the opposition or even the courtesy of notifying them.
    Being used as a political pawn was not what he signed up for i strongly infer.

  12. Nath if you really think that fraud Malcom saved money on the NBN then you are worthy of pity.

    Otoh you could be a dipshit troll..

  13. These people aren’t forced into high public office, they fight their way in tooth and nail and voters are entitled to expect behaviours.

    If you are not prepared to admit to the electorate that you are a sub in a D/s relationship, and you don’t value your privacy enough to avoid high public office then you need to expect someone will find out you are a sub in a D/s relationship and New Idea to do a spread. Noone forced you to be a sub, no one forced you into high public office you’ve got to take it as it comes.

    Now it is one thing to hope for privacy in a high public office you’ve volunteered for where you are engaged in a healthy consensual, albeit unconventional, relationship. It is quite another thing to voluntarily run for high public office, run on family and Christian values and then betray not just your values, but the values you’ve preached at you community. It isn’t just a private matter, it would normally be, but you made it public when you went for high public office.

    I’m sick to death of immoral conservatives asking for a free pass from the electorate when their base hypocrisy and lack of honesty is exposed.

  14. “You are just angry MT introduced a great NBN project for half the cost of Labor’s exorbitant proposals.”

    “Great NBN”?! You’re being sarcastic, right Nath? I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt; you don’t strike me as excessively delusional.

  15. Question

    I still get a bit of a surprise when someone in the CPG points out something obvious they have spent years being wilfully blind to.
    __________________________________

    My reaction precisely. Same goes for Katharine Murphy in the Guardian reporting Bill Shorten’s speech to the Conference yesterday.

  16. Why am I not surprised that nath has sprung into action as an apologist for ex-Coalition Minister, Andrew Broad who has been caught with his pants down with a broad in Hong Kong!?!

    Of course, you don’t have to imagine the response from nath if it was Bill Shorten’s compromising position.

  17. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, December 17, 2018 at 1:58 pm

    Bilko,

    Her opening line might have been,

    “Is that a lump of coal in your pocket, or are you just pleased to see me?”
    GG
    how about you sounded taller in your emails or I am part of a broader churvh

  18. David Crowe has succeeded in finally getting me to cancel my subscription to The SMH. What a pile of crud he writes, crud without end.

  19. Question.

    Turnbull actually did produce a cheaper version of the NBN.

    The capital expenditure of his NBN is about 90% of Labor’s original fibre NBN.

    The problem being is that Turnbull’s NBN has a finished value about half to a third of the original plan and a greatly reduced earning capability.

    The other problem is that Turnbull’s NBN has an operating expediture over the forseeable future of about 10 times that of the original NBN. This makes the Labor option actually cheaper within about 10 years.

    The other other problem is that most of Turnbull’s network will need to be overbuilt with fibre within 10-15 years anyway, as it provides virtually no upgrade path in either the FTTN or cable sections.

  20. Sex scandals never interest me much unless there is something criminal involved.

    However, it is amusing that another anti-SSM type just can’t keep his “family values” in his pants.

  21. Frankly, I don’t give a damn what Andrew Broad got up to. Provided it was not criminal, or a misuse of public money or position. And I’m not making any judgements on those issues.

    That said, the text messages will just reconfirm that these buggers are only in it for themselves. As Bill Shorten pointed out yesterday, the cynicism of the public applies to both sides and nobody is going to just believe him and Labor when they say that they are going to govern in the public interest. They will have to prove it and they can’t prove it if they don’t have power.

    So, Labor is choosing its fights very carefully in the lead up to the election. They will buy a fight on imputation credits and negative gearing because the revenue is critical to fixing the mess left by the coal clown circus. But getting on board virtue signalling chest beating over Adani or Nauru (as opposed to the vote Labor actually supported in the Parliament) is not going to do a single thing to stop Adani or get a single person off Nauru or out of Manus unless and until Labor can get into government.

  22. booleanbach @ #408 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 12:52 pm

    My prediction:
    The next ALP selected Governor General will be Indigenous & Female.
    Candidates anyone?

    While not a suggestion for a female candidate, I left a comment over the weekend, maybe the previous thread, wtte that Patrick Dodson might be a Governor General. I was reminded that this could be considered as approving and/or legitimising the conquest of the continent by the British.

    I still like the symbolism, but as I was reminded, “It’s complicated.”

  23. Nath Just because I don’t think people should resign for cheating doesn’t mean im not enjoying this idiot and his fucked up text messages which are a delight.

    Just double check the tax payers sent picking up the bill


  24. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, December 17, 2018 at 2:04 pm

    Broad who has been caught with his pants down with a broad in Hong Kong!?!

    It does seem the women in question left before he could get them off.

  25. Sorry, Cud, but I have just spent an hour and a half peeling, stoning, and slicing 2 kilos of yellow peaches and then making a Peach and Blueberry Cobbler with them! So please exqueeze me if I am not up to par with all of your eloquent commentary. 🙂

    Plus, I am on my phone until my new modem arrives and the wifi is painfully slow to load pages.

  26. Graham,

    My comment was intended as broad and holistic one, so I think we are in furious agreement.

    It’s not future proof. The speeds are crap. It is a Frankenstein’s monster that will cost us far more than “doing it once and doing it right”. It took all of MT’s business genius to stuff it up so well.

  27. When you claim that your politics are influenced heavily by the morality of your religion, any right to privacy regarding lack of family values evaporates.

  28. When it comes to the Nationals and the ram paddock, they would probable do better if they behaved less like cross breeds and more like merinos.

  29. Zoom,
    That’s right and especially to a self-confessed root rat bogan like nath. 😉

    He probably thinks Andrew Broad is a champion.

  30. ‘For Values Lived
    The Christian Values Awards

    The Australian Christian Values Institute believes that Australian values are Christian values. These are the values that made Australia great. The preamble to Australia’s Constitution says, “Humbly relying on the blessings of Almighty God”. Alfred Deakin, one of the fathers of Australia’s Constitution and Australia’s second Prime Minister, offered the following prayer after theConstitution was finally ratified. “We pray that it may be the means of creating and fostering throughout all Australia a Christ-like Citizenship.”

    The vision of the Australian Christian Values Institute is to reaffirm Australia’s commitment to Judeo-Christian values as the cornerstone of our nation’s prosperity for the common good. The Australian Christian Values Institute, along with other pro-family groups, has given Christian Values Awards to parliamentarians in Federal Parliament since 2004.

    ‘Christian Values Award’ Winners
    2016
    Hon Chris Hayes MP – Member for Fowler, New South Wales
    Ian Goodenough MP – Member for Moore, Western Australia
    Andrew Broad MP – Member for Mallee, Victoria
    Recognition of Service Award: Rev Peter Rose Chaplain to the Federal Parliament Canberra..’

    https://www.christianvalues.org.au/index.php/christian-values-awards/christian-values-awards

  31. C@tmomma @ #423 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 2:04 pm

    Why am I not surprised that nath has sprung into action as an apologist for ex-Coalition Minister, Andrew Broad who has been caught with his pants down with a broad in Hong Kong!?!

    Of course, you don’t have to imagine the response from nath if it was Bill Shorten’s compromising position.

    Broad abroad with a broad

    There was this dud Nat from the Mallee
    With sugar he thought he’d get pally
    Try hard as he might
    Nothing came right
    Just one more Nat up another blind alley.

  32. Cud Chewer.

    The NBN, or at least the Turnbull sections, are indeed obsolete.

    To fix it now Labor will have to find $10-15 billion or more from somewhere.

    I don’t think that they will be able to do that. I think it will be the Labor government that follows Shorten’s that will have to clean up Turnbull’s mess. Probably 2035-2040.

    By that time of course Australian broadband will be below sub third world standard.

    The LNP have successfully committed the largest single case of economic vandalism ever perpetrated on this country and yet the voters still haven’t woken up to it.

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