Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

The final Ipsos poll for the year fails to replicate its unusually strong result for the Coalition last time.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, one last Ipsos poll for the year, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from an anomalous 52-48 a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 36%, Labor up three to 37% and the Greens are steady on 13%. The leaders’ ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 47% and up three on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 50%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-35 to 46-37. The poll also finds opinion evenly divided on Labor’s negative gearing policy, with 43% in favour and 44% opposed, while 48% oppose its related cut in the capital gains tax discount, with 43% in support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

786 comments on “Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 16
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  1. Barney

    Australians put in danger by terrorists in parts of the world for nothing. Even domestic politics doesn’t cut it. Just as with Religious “Freedom” appealing to the base as that survey shows is not even achieving on the domestic political front.

  2. ‘lizzie says:
    Monday, December 17, 2018 at 7:42 am

    Boerwar

    I can’t think of anything substantial Nats have done except favour dams and coal, and support Barnaby. Anyone is welcome to correct me.’

    The Nationals have used their BOP status to squeeze billions of tax money via the Northern Australian Development Fund ($5 billion), Drought Aid ($2-$3 billion), the ‘Rural National Bank’ ($2 billion). Then there are various tax breaks – income averaging, accelerated depreciation, trust mechanism.

  5. guytaur @ #100 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 5:04 am

    Barney

    Australians put in danger by terrorists in parts of the world for nothing. Even domestic politics doesn’t cut it. Just as with Religious “Freedom” appealing to the base as that survey shows is not even achieving on the domestic political front.

    Hyperbole muchly!

    You love to look beyond the issues. 🙂

  6. Has Morrisons ICAC been the biggest non-event ”major announcement” (and rightly so) in recent Federal history

    It remarkably bumped Trumble’s ‘State Income Tax’ Brainfart into second place for idea that was obviously never going anywhere within seconds of being announced.

  7. Barney in Go Dau @ #98 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 9:01 am

    It’s good to see that our beloved PM has managed to piss off nearly everyone with his Israel contortions.

    What a special talent that truly is!
    🙂

    Could it be – surely not — ❓

    Mr. Morrison is another undercover Labor agent. Said to be operating under strict Need to Know rules a la John le Carré ‘s “Smileys People” – in six parts. The protagonist appears to be a bumbling, lovable, drunk Uncle at a wedding type – when really he is a ……………………………..(aarrrgghhhh — put me down 86 I can’t reach my shoe phone ❗ )

    Smiley’s People (miniseries) – Wikipedia

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smiley%27s_People_(miniseries)

    Smiley’s People is a 1982 drama miniseries in six parts, made for the BBC. Directed by Simon Langton, produced by Jonathan Powell, it is the television adaptation of the 1979 spy novel Smiley’s People by John le Carré …

    P.S. Mr. Morrison may not have understood the “need to know” bit – may be cleverly operating with a reverse twist and two somersaults.

    I am eagerly awaiting Part Two” and comforting myself by watching Das Boot” also in six parts. Not the crappy new version – the original. Great movie – five stars and an elephant stamp. 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟🐘

  8. Our great LNP will win the next election due in May and Scott Morrison will be the best PM since John Howard and they will win seats of the ALP who will be in opposition till 2030….,,,

  9. A report prepared for the Senate that provides the most sweeping analysis yet of Russia’s disinformation campaign around the 2016 election found the operation used every major social media platform to deliver words, images and videos tailored to voters’ interests to help elect President Trump — and worked even harder to support him while in office.

    The report, a draft of which was obtained by The Washington Post, is the first to study the millions of posts provided by major technology firms to the Senate Intelligence Committee, led by Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), its chairman, and Sen. Mark Warner (Va.), its ranking Democrat. The bipartisan panel hasn’t said if it endorses the findings. It plans to release it publicly along with another study later this week.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2018/12/16/new-report-russian-disinformation-prepared-senate-shows-operations-scale-sweep/?utm_term=.be1a6110c590

  10. Dear Labor folk, please share this through your networks. It is an important truth and very relevant in light of what Chris Bowen said yesterday.

    “There is nothing at all inherently good about a fiscal surplus.

    On rare occasions a surplus might be necessary to limit inflation.

    A government budget surplus in a monetary sovereign nation is never necessary for any other reason.

    When a country has record household debt, excessive inequality, and many public investments which need to be made, the promise of a surplus is a promise of fool’s gold.”

    https://www.facebook.com/673798776036602/posts/2023555114394288/

  11. lizzie @ #96 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 8:46 am

    booleanbach

    Worth reading. Shows how fantasy still rules. 🙂

    Thanks both.

    The picture just about says it all, the little things and the big things don’t need to be spelt out. It is ‘life out of balance’.

    lizzie, imo the great magician is time. Time is the smoke and mirrors that disguises the truth; it clouds the past and curtains the future. And the time time takes to time things is the greatest trick of them all.

    Speed things up — reality changes. The effects you don’t see, miss, skip over, deny, day to day, decade to decade, lifetime to lifetime become apparent. The MDB is a good example – if we could see 200 years in 10 minutes we might learn something.

    Slow things down — reality changes.

    Koyaanisqatsi = life out of balance

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o64zjJeXClw

    (one of those ‘you only remember it if you didn’t see it’ films)

  12. Kay Jay, we rewatched Smiley’s People recently. All episodes are free and available on YouTube.

    Alec Guinness magnificent, with a cameo appearance from Kurt Jurgens as “the General”.

  13. sprocket_ @ #74 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 6:47 am

    And Mahatir says what everyone in the world is thinking…

    BANGKOK (Reuters) – Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad on Sunday criticized Australia’s move to recognise West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, saying countries had “no rights” to do so.

    Australia’s move follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv in May, which infuriated Palestinians and the wider Islamic world and upset Western allies.

    “Jerusalem should remain as it is now and not the capital of Israel,” Mahathir told Reuters on the sidelines of an event in Bangkok.

    “Jerusalem has always been under Palestine, so why are they taking the initiative to divide Jerusalem not belonging to them, but to divide the Arabs and the Jews? They have no rights,” he added.

    Regardless of ones position on Jersualem Embassy – someone should remind Dr Mahatir who has a history of holocaust denial and anti-semetism, that Australia is a sovereign country that can make its own foreign policy decisions.

  15. Wayne @ #107 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 9:22 am

    Our great LNP will win the next election due in May and Scott Morrison will be the best PM since John Howard and they will win seats of the ALP who will be in opposition till 2030….,,,

    Has anyone deduced the WayneBot algorithm’s trigger for farting yet? I suspect that it’s internal GRASPer polling: every time today’s leader slips another point with the dwindling faithful, the WayneBot grinds out another risible post.

  17. ItzaDream

    What amazed me was that Sellafield was planning a CELEBRATION of its success.
    PR people have a lot to answer for. 🙁

  18. MYFEO presser now

    @politicsabc tweets

    Key figures from MYEFO #auspol
    Forecast deficit for 2018/19 cut from $14.5 billion to $5.2 billion
    Forecast surplus for 2019/20 up from $2.2 billion to $4.1 billion

  19. rhwombat @ #114 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 8:31 am

    Wayne @ #107 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 9:22 am

    Our great LNP will win the next election due in May and Scott Morrison will be the best PM since John Howard and they will win seats of the ALP who will be in opposition till 2030….,,,

    Has anyone deduced the WayneBot algorithm’s trigger for farting yet? I suspect that it’s internal GRASPer polling: every time today’s leader slips another point with the dwindling faithful, the WayneBot grinds out another risible post.

    I note the word “Brainfart” ococcured a couple of posts earlier.

  20. Wayne is a symbol of much that is wrong with the Government.

    Mindless repetition!

    They tried change and introduced Bree,

    but she just demonstrated poor grammar was not the problem

    and so they returned to type and released Wayne again! 🙂

  21. @TheKouk tweets

    Huh? There is no budget surplus in MYEFO – there is merely a FORECAST for a budget surplus in the financial year that ends 30 June 2020 that is based on very optimistic economic forecasts that have at least an even chance of disappointing #MYEFO

    @politicsabc tweets

    Other key takeaways:
    ▶️ 10% drop in rural exports, drought conditions hitting industry
    ▶️ Further escalation of trade war between US and China could harm Aus
    ▶️ Wage growth predictions for next financial year below May Budget forecasts
    #auspol #myefo

  22. Great post Wayne, but it contains a few errors which I have corrected:

    “Our great egregious LNP will win lose the next election due in May and Scott Morrison will be the best shortest-serving PM since John Howard McEwen and they will win lose seats of to the ALP who and will be in opposition till 2030….,,, and beyond.

    Don’t bother thanking me.

  23. Despite all the evidence that Adani mine and the Galilee basin coal opening will be a disaster, Lab can’t even come to say the words, nor catch the political zeitgeist of the majority of the Australian people that Adani and Galilee basin should not, will not go ahead

    Adani’s key water management plan is flawed and used some unverified data, CSIRO says
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-17/adani-water-management-plan-criticised-by-csiro/10625228

  24. Quoll @ #122 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 9:48 am

    Despite all the evidence that Adani mine and the Galilee basin coal opening will be a disaster, Lab can’t even come to say the words, nor catch the political zeitgeist of the majority of the Australian people that Adani and Galilee basin should not, will not go ahead

    Adani’s key water management plan is flawed and used some unverified data, CSIRO says
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-17/adani-water-management-plan-criticised-by-csiro/10625228

    We’ll all be rooned said Quollrahan!

  25. Bushfire Bill @ #111 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 9:26 am

    Kay Jay, we rewatched Smiley’s People recently. All episodes are free and available on YouTube.

    Alec Guinness magnificent, with a cameo appearance from Kurt Jurgens as “the General”.

    Yep. Great performances – great scripts – I will follow your lead.

    Currently downloading in HD and with subtitles to accommodate my relative deafness. 👍 🎥
    More mowing today. quelle excitement.

  27. The NSW agreements for the regions of Eden, north east and southern are similar to the new forest agreements in Western Australia and Tasmania in that they have a rolling life.

    In NSW this means the agreement will always have a 15 to 20-year expiry date, based on five-yearly reviews — for example, following the first review in 2024, the RFA will be extended until 2044.

    This has been welcomed by the timber industry.

    But it worries others including the Environmental Defenders Office and forest ecologist David Lindenmayer.

    “Essentially it means that you’re making policy based on information that is often decades and decades out of date,” said Professor Lindemayer, from The Fenner School of Environment and Society at the Australian National University.

    “Imagine having a media policy that didn’t have the internet as part of the policy.”

    Leaked documents revealed both levels of government previously held concerns about the legality of the document based on science decades old.
    …
    “Given the provisions of the RFA can be rolled over every five years with limited review, there is concern that the document will stagnate and not be capable of adjusting to a changing environment and climate,” Mr Dobbie said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-17/regional-forest-logging-agreement-with-no-end-date-criticised/10623906?smid=ABCRural-Twitter_Organic&WT.tsrc=Twitter_Organic&sf204392196=1

  29. “Australia is a sovereign country that can make its own foreign policy decisions”…this is from the FU school of international diplomacy….trouble is Australia does not live in a vacuum, and other countries then can say FU back to us…
    Indonesia can stop trade, stop ship access through their waters, as can Malaysia. The Islamic World can retaliate.
    Look at the map at who will be F’ed then….Little insignificant Israel won’t be coming to our aid.

  31. The PM’s office has told us the government has spent $1.4 billion on accommodation for medical transferees from Manus Island and Nauru over the past five years

    If they are spending $540,000 a day then I smell a rotten corrupt cosy deal with Liberal Party maaaaaaaaaaaates to screw over the tax payer. That or it is just Rupert’s speciality, utter bullshit.

  33. guytaur @ #120 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 8:42 am

    very optimistic economic forecasts that have at least an even chance of disappointing

    Hang on. Betting on 50/50 odds isn’t “very optimistic” by any measure. More like “hopeful” or something close to it.

    If the forecasts had a 90% chance of being wrong, and the government decided to bet on the 10% outcome anyways, that would be very optimistic.

  34. There is no budget surplus in MYEFO – there is merely a FORECAST for a budget surplus in the financial year that ends 30 June 2020 that is based on very optimistic economic forecasts that have at least an even chance of disappointing

    If you were the LNP and you thought you were likely to lose the next election, what would you do?

    Heroic assumptions that look better now allow you to make a stronger campaign on ‘economic management’ that might save some furniture (and if you win, well you win! Who cares what might happen when the figures are updated … Libs are always going to be the better economic managers by definition don’t you know?)

    More importantly, when the incoming Labor government are in power and the actual figures ‘disappoint’ (as they inevitably will because you cooked the numbers so they would), that’s just perpetuating the “Labor always over-promise and under-deliver … we would have delivered much better numbers if we were in power – you know it to be true!”

    So, yeah, no potential downside at all in the Libs’ mind in overcooking this MYEFO.

  35. This is a familiar tale to we Aussies.

    Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) said the number of Republican women in the House has fallen to “crisis level.”

    “Women are a majority of voters in our country, and the GOP must do more to ensure our conference represents their views,” said Stefanik, who announced plans this month to help Republican women in their primaries in 2020.

    The GOP’s poor performance with women this election cycle has exposed sensitive fault lines within the party over identity politics and how to win elections.

    Republican leaders often hedge on whether recruiting female candidates should be a top priority, saying they want whoever is most qualified. The need for more female lawmakers to better reflect the country — or at least to win votes from more women — has not been a given for all party members.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/crisis-level-republican-women-sound-warning-after-election-losses/2018/12/16/e8c99eba-ffb4-11e8-83c0-b06139e540e5_story.html?utm_term=.2df8b6feba19

  36. If the forecasts had a 90% chance of being wrong, and the government decided to be on the 10% outcome anyways, that would be very optimistic.

    Nah, that would be fraudulent.

  37. I haven’t seen this getting much of a mention..

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/12/09/record-number-asylum-seekers-peter-dutton/

    For all the government’s tough-on-asylum-seekers rhetoric, protection visa applications have blown out to record numbers on Peter Dutton’s watch.

    The people smugglers are doing more business than ever. The difference is that their clients are arriving by plane rather than boat and are less likely to be genuine refugees.

    The Home Affairs Department website shows 27,931 protection visa applications were made in the latest financial year by plane arrivals.

    The previous record number of asylum seekers was 26,845 in the 2012-13 financial year when 18,365 protection visa applications were made for boat arrivals and 8480 for those who came by plane.

  40. guytaur says:
    Monday, December 17, 2018 at 9:54 am
    @GetUP tweets

    Turn the heat up on Labor now! Use the Labor Conference hashtags to tell Bill Shorten a real climate plan means no more coal! #LabConf2018 #StopAdani https://twitter.com/GetUp/status/1074085377890082816/photo/1
    —————————————————–
    They just don’t seem to understand that no-one is going to walk away from trying to stop Adani, Galilee basin and the risks to the Great Barrier Reef
    As blind as a Liberal in Victoria pre-Nov 24

  41. I reckon this Ipsos poll will be enough to lift the next Bludgertrack reading to at least 55-45. A very nice note to end the year on.
    (Assuming of course that Essential doesn’t turn up and ruin the party).

  46. A lot of the improved surplus has come off the back of lower welfare payments. The official reason for these lower welfare outlays has been “better unemployment figures”.

    A neighbour of mine has had her application for a full pension lodged for over 7 months.

    She constantly received emails telling her that she had nothing more to do to progress her application.

    Every couple of months she would be told her application had failed “… because you did not reply to letters we sent to you requesting information“, even though the only letters she DID receive specifically instructed her NOT to reply to them, told her they had ALL the information they needed, and requested NO further information.

    Each time she received one of these rebuffs she had to traipse into the local Centrelink office (80 kilometre round trip), wait around in a queue for 90 minutes and clear up the mistake.

    Most of the problems arose out of one particular bank account that she had, which she opened 22 years ago to receive random cash she may have had to spare to benefit her grandson.

    First they queried the statements, requesting all statements from up to 10 years previously. Then they tried to accuse her of having an undeclared dependent (i.e. the grandson). These queries took up the first 6 months, at roughly 2-monthly intervals, during which they kept on informing her they had all the information they needed to assess her claim.

    Then finally they demanded details of the grandson, including tax file number, Centrelink number, licence number, passport number, previous places of residence over the past 5 years, whether he had a partner and so on, ad infinitum.

    At this she closed down the account. Seven months of wrangling with anonymous petty bureaucrats over it were enough. She’d had a gutful. She was eating into her meagre savings significantly, and just wanted her pension.

    Now here’s the funny part. This account had only ever had ONE transaction in its entire history. This was a deposit, made on the 15th of November 1996 when the account was established, for the princely sum of $20.

    Six months of inaction, queries, weekly emails, multiple visits to Centrelink totalling hundreds of kilometres travelled and scores of hours waiting in queues and on the phone to call centre operators who could never help her, was all concerned with one single deposit of $20, to an account never used, made 22 years ago.

    No wonder they can crow about a surplus. They are just not making the payments they should be making to people who are fully qualified to receive benefits, really need the money but have incurred the malignant attention of an anonymous case officer determined to impress their boss by holding back payments.

    It’s a fucking disgrace.

  47. The Greens WILL close Australia’s cotton industry.

    The Greens stated aim is to remove all GMOs from the environment. Australia’s 500,000 hectares of cotton is all GMO.
    Do the Greens themselves wear GMO cotton clothes?
    Is the Pope a catholic?

  48. Jackol,

    The pre election budgetary statement makes that game pretty much a non starter. Josh doesn’t get a look in at fudging those so the heroism in these numbers will die then and he won’t have anyone to deflect blame to.

    This isn’t an exercise in winning or even tightening the next election. It’s an exercise in getting to February. The Liberals might be idiots but even idiots understand what the polls and Super Saturday and Wentworth and the Victorian election are saying. Liberal marginal seat holders certainly do and safe seat holders are starting to get it as well.

    And they know that Scott Robinson has and is continuing to make things worse for them. Of course it would be madness for them to dump him. But they might come to the conclusion that it would be even greater madness to stick with him.

    That’s what all this Scott Robinson nonsense is about. Desperately trying to pull even a single tiny glimmer of light into their darkness. Each day to try something in the hope it might stick. A heroic MYEFO is just today’s gambit to try and go 24 hours without turning more people into anti Coalition voters. Tomorrow it will be something else.

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