Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

No Christmas cheer for the Coalition from the final Newspoll for 2018.

The Australian reports Newspoll has closed its 2018 account with another crushing 55-45 lead for Labor, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (up one), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one). Scott Morrison edges to net negative territory on his personal ratings, being down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 45%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 36% and up one to 51%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 44-36, narrowing from 46-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1731.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,921 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

Comments Page 47 of 59
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  1. Mavis Smith @ #2299 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 9:25 am

    shellbell:

    [‘…Victoria is strangely reluctant to believe that jurors will only consider the evidence in the case before them and be guided in so doing by the directions of the judge.’]

    Victoria is the only Australian jurisdiction to accept the proposition that a judicial direction to a jury does not purge it from only considering the evidence before it. I thus endorse the gag order, with the qualification that in the digital era, it’s quite easy to ascertain the identify of a person to whom a suppression order refers to, particularly where that person has a nationa/international profile.

    Agree. A person, no matter how much they may or may not be despised by some, deserves a fair trial.

  2. swamprat

    ‘Le Pen may prove the least of your worries. ‘
    Maybe, maybe not.
    I happened to be in enjoying some shopping at the St Denis market once This area is strongly muslim majority. The markets are exuberant, in every sense of that word and I would recommend a visit to all Bludgers proposing to tour France.
    Then the Le Penites arrived in some trucks and very large groups of thug like creatures and started the loudspeakers with messages aimed at provoking a riot.
    Before this could get properly started a very large convoy of police arrived and interposed, closed the loudspeakers down and dispersed the mobs.
    With a President Le Pen, IMO, such provocations will become a matter of state policy and the consequent rioting and burning will be extreme.

  6. ab11

    ‘No they don’t. Even if Sinn Fein came riding over the hill, they would still be 4 votes short.’

    Indeed. Plus the DUP would know that they would be unlikely to hold the BOP following a new general election. Plus there are around 100 Tories who hold some sort of position of additional gain in the governance structure. Plus there are dozens of Tories who know that they would be likely to lose their seats in a general election.
    So, even assuming the May Draft fails, there is no guarantee that Corbyn would get the opportunity to switch from masterful inactivity to masterful activity.

  7. ”
    Boerwar says:
    Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 8:14 am
    So, Corbyn the Brexiteer has NO Brexit options.

    Inaction? For sure.
    Masterly? A huge cockup.
    ”
    BW, True. However, it also applies to Tory MPs in general & May particular because she is the PM.
    However, Your argument is similar to what Guytaur, Nicholas, Peg, nath & Rex make against ALP in general & Shorten in particular. Labor parties in UK & OZ are in opposition and Tories are in power in both countries. So Tories of both the countries are responsible for the huge mess these countries are in. Corbyn can be compared to Abbott but from left.

  8. ”
    Torchbearer says:
    Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 9:34 am
    Someone correct me, I could be wrong as discussed, but don’t the Tories only hold 317 seats in a 650 seat chamber?
    ”
    Yes

  10. Ven
    I appreciate the point about what can be achieved from opposition.
    However my point is that none of Corbyn’s Brexit ‘options’ are real – that is to say, he is dudding his voters.
    Note that Ray, who hails from the UK, begs strongly to differ.
    Ray’s view is that a Corbyn election would effectively off the opportunity for a complete restart of the Brexit negotiations.

  12. I sent this email to Chris Bowen and I hope to hear back with the good news that he has decided to abandon surplus fetishism.

    Dear Chris,

    I am concerned that you and Bill Shorten have hemmed yourselves in with meaningless and inappropriate commitments to “get back to surplus.” The consequence will be that you will inflict on Australia increased private sector indebtedness with all the attendant financial fragility and negative impacts for living standards. You will disappoint the voters almost from the very beginning and you will end up with two terms at the most.

    It is extremely silly for the government to set a fiscal surplus as a target under current economic conditions.

    A fiscal surplus just means that in a given financial year the government deleted more dollars of private sector financial wealth than it added.

    That is all it means.

    The government cannot stockpile, hoard, or accumulate its own currency that it spends into existence thousands of times daily by keystroking numbers into Exchange Settlement Accounts at the Reserve Bank of Australia.

    It would only be appropriate for the federal government to run a fiscal surplus if the domestic private sector and the external sector were spending like crazy. Then the government would need to net delete enough non-government sector Australian dollar financial wealth to contain inflation.

    We do not face that situation today. We have a small trade account surplus and we have an income account deficit that outweighs our trade account surplus. This means that overall we have a current account deficit. The external sector is a spending or demand leakage for the Australian economy.

    In addition to that, the domestic private sector wants to net save. It wants to spend less than it earns. This is another spending or demand leakage from the Australian economy.

    In order to offset those demand leakages, and provide enough income for the non government sector to meet its tax obligations and achieve its desires to spend, save, and do paid work, the federal government should really be running a larger deficit than it is today.

    700,000 unemployed.

    1.1 million under-employed.

    200,000 discouraged job-seekers (at least).

    On top of that, there are buildings, factories, and equipment that are not being used to their full potential.

    There is a vast amount of unused productive capacity in the Australian economy.

    The correct fiscal stance for the government under these circumstances is expansion, not contraction.

    The extra spending needs to be targeted wisely on activities that are socially useful and environmentally healthy. Ensuring that everyone who wants interesting and meaningful and decently paid work has their wishes met should be a high priority.

    Making our public infrastructure and public services first class should be a major goal.

    Targeting a particular fiscal outcome is the wrong way to go about designing economic policy.

    The government must pursue real world outcomes that meet the needs of our people and enhance the natural ecosystems to which we belong.

    The fiscal balance is largely a non-discretionary variable anyway. The government does not control the spending and saving decisions of the non-government sector. It makes no sense to target a particular fiscal balance. It’s an ex post variable whose number we know after the event.

    Economically illiterate people use terms like budget repair, the national credit card, running out of money etc. when discussing the federal government.

    It is important that people understand that the federal government’s financial position is nothing like that of a household or a business or a state or local government.

    Please consider talking honestly and accurately with the voters about the financial capacity of the Commonwealth Government. The government is constrained by the availability of real goods and services that are for sale in the government’s currency. There is no financial constraint on the federal government’s capacity to make payments in its own currency.

    It will be far better for a Shorten-Bowen Government and far better for the Australian people if you win a mandate for economically literate policies.

    Please don’t disappoint us again. We need you to succeed. Success in government depends on accurate communication with the public while you are still in Opposition. Don’t wait until you are in government before you embark on the educative task of explaining what money is and how government spending works.

    Best wishes

    Nicholas

  14. [‘Cohen will have to surrender to authorities by March 6.’]

    So he gets to have Christmas with his family. In Australia, following a plea(s) of guilty, the prisoner would be, immediately after sentencing, taken to a holding cell, to be transported to prison proper.

  21. If you look at chart 14, page 4 of the NAB Monthly Business Survey for October 2018 you see that capacity utilisation in the Australian economy is 81%. The peak was 84% in 2008. There is ample unused capacity in the Australian economy. It would not be inflationary for the federal government to do extra spending that is targeted at bringing unused resources into productive use. If Australia had a Job Guarantee and a federal government that made active use of discretionary fiscal policy, we would have a much higher level of capacity utilisation that could be sustained long term and that would be consistent with stable prices, underemployment of zero, hidden unemployment of zero, and unemployment of less than 2%.

    https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2018m10-NAB-Monthly-Business-Survey.pdf

  22. Nicholas @ #2309 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 9:46 am

    I sent this email to Chris Bowen and I hope to hear back with the good news that he has decided to abandon surplus fetishism.

    Dear Chris,

    I am concerned that you and Bill Shorten have hemmed yourselves in with meaningless and inappropriate commitments to “get back to surplus.” The consequence will be that you will inflict on Australia increased private sector indebtedness with all the attendant financial fragility and negative impacts for living standards. You will disappoint the voters almost from the very beginning and you will end up with two terms at the most.

    It is extremely silly for the government to set a fiscal surplus as a target under current economic conditions.

    A fiscal surplus just means that in a given financial year the government deleted more dollars of private sector financial wealth than it added.

    That is all it means.

    The government cannot stockpile, hoard, or accumulate its own currency that it spends into existence thousands of times daily by keystroking numbers into Exchange Settlement Accounts at the Reserve Bank of Australia.

    It would only be appropriate for the federal government to run a fiscal surplus if the domestic private sector and the external sector were spending like crazy. Then the government would need to net delete enough non-government sector Australian dollar financial wealth to contain inflation.

    We do not face that situation today. We have a small trade account surplus and we have an income account deficit that outweighs our trade account surplus. This means that overall we have a current account deficit. The external sector is a spending or demand leakage for the Australian economy.

    In addition to that, the domestic private sector wants to net save. It wants to spend less than it earns. This is another spending or demand leakage from the Australian economy.

    In order to offset those demand leakages, and provide enough income for the non government sector to meet its tax obligations and achieve its desires to spend, save, and do paid work, the federal government should really be running a larger deficit than it is today.

    700,000 unemployed.

    1.1 million under-employed.

    200,000 discouraged job-seekers (at least).

    On top of that, there are buildings, factories, and equipment that are not being used to their full potential.

    There is a vast amount of unused productive capacity in the Australian economy.

    The correct fiscal stance for the government under these circumstances is expansion, not contraction.

    The extra spending needs to be targeted wisely on activities that are socially useful and environmentally healthy. Ensuring that everyone who wants interesting and meaningful and decently paid work has their wishes met should be a high priority.

    Making our public infrastructure and public services first class should be a major goal.

    Targeting a particular fiscal outcome is the wrong way to go about designing economic policy.

    The government must pursue real world outcomes that meet the needs of our people and enhance the natural ecosystems to which we belong.

    The fiscal balance is largely a non-discretionary variable anyway. The government does not control the spending and saving decisions of the non-government sector. It makes no sense to target a particular fiscal balance. It’s an ex post variable whose number we know after the event.

    Economically illiterate people use terms like budget repair, the national credit card, running out of money etc. when discussing the federal government.

    It is important that people understand that the federal government’s financial position is nothing like that of a household or a business or a state or local government.

    Please consider talking honestly and accurately with the voters about the financial capacity of the Commonwealth Government. The government is constrained by the availability of real goods and services that are for sale in the government’s currency. There is no financial constraint on the federal government’s capacity to make payments in its own currency.

    It will be far better for a Shorten-Bowen Government and far better for the Australian people if you win a mandate for economically literate policies.

    Please don’t disappoint us again. We need you to succeed. Success in government depends on accurate communication with the public while you are still in Opposition. Don’t wait until you are in government before you embark on the educative task of explaining what money is and how government spending works.

    Best wishes

    Nicholas

    Good on you, Nicholas.

  25. Boerwar

    Mate I’m simply trying to stay level-headed and abreast of all the options 🙂

    There is a renegotiation option is all I’m saying and it’s only fair to point that out

    There’s no If’s and But’s either, the European Court ruling was crystal clear – the UK can simply withdraw the Article 50 request with no financial/legal penalty and that’s it, this particular ‘Brexit’ would be dead in the water

    As you say all the thorny issues would still be there in a renewed negotiation

    As I have stated before I see no evidence of a significant change in public opinion and I’ve come around to the view that ‘a’ Brexit of some sort is inevitable. If the polls were saying 2-1 on backtracking that would be different but of course they’re not

  26. Michael Pascoe
    ‏ @MichaelPascoe01
    2h2 hours ago
    Replying to @GrogsGamut

    Couldn’t the religious freedom commissioner double up with the wind farm commissioner? Both jobs are for non-issues, so doing nothing twice takes the same time as once.

  27. “Our great LNP will win the next election due in May next year and Scott Morrison will be a great PM for this great country of ours…..

    Wasn’t Malcolm Turnbull going to win the election and be a great PM for this great country of ours?

  28. The Pope is shuffling the troops
    .
    “Australian Cardinal George Pell has been removed from Pope Francis’ inner circle of advisers.

    The Vatican has confirmed Cardinal Pell, 77, is one of three cardinals who was not reappointed to the Council of Cardinals, known as the C9, which provides high-level international advice to the Pope.

    A former Archbishop of Melbourne and Sydney, Cardinal Pell retains his role as Treasurer to the Vatican, its third-highest position, although he has been on a leave of absence for 18 months.

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/cardinal-george-pell-removed-from-vatican-role-with-council-of-cardinals/news-story/3160cfef87aaf83e3b672a97542eb11f?utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Daily%20Telegraph

  29. g
    Nice link with some good insights into what is driving some, at least, in the Tory Party. Some of the parallels with the Abbott/Morrison/Dutton mob are striking.

  30. Boerwar:

    [‘Will Trump pardon Cohen?’]

    No, but Manafort’s in with a strong chance, at least with the federal charges he faces. Given the number of historical sexual assault cases having been prosecuted in the two last decades or so, major prisons in Australia have set aside dementia wards. I hope for Manafort’s sake, the same situation applies in the US.

  31. The self-inflicted wounds among the Tories are well deserved. The main question for the hard right is whether they have the willingness to vote with Labour and SNP on a no confidence motion. Unlikely that LDP and DUP will support one just now so probably needs 30-40? Tories support to get up.

    Most likely result is the May Brexit gets heavily voted down. Then the question for Labour will be whether they will support a postponement of Brexit date – would easily get up with a lot of Tory support. That would probably result in years of kicking the can down the road.

    The main alternative for Labour would be to let the no deal Brexit scenario unfold and watch the Tories implode hoping to get a big win whenever the election occurs.

    No easy choices here.

  34. swamprat @ #2290 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 9:14 am

    The world becoming more “progressive” (whatever that means)?

    The progressive capitalist world is dominated by globalising liberals. They have a serious political problem as their economic policies are dependent on endless growth, the freedom to exploit labour and resources without the hinderance of borders nor national or local aspirations.

    The decline of traditional social democratic/socialist parties as they discard their values has left the field of protest to the right. Meanwhile the Corporate State is quietly consolidating its power.

    Australia is well on the way with both major parties supporting ever growing security controls over the citizenry, compiling private information, disbanding of government functions outsourced to global corporations (eg Serco), trade treaties that entrench global corporations above elected governments, the suborning of politicians, corporate funding of political parties, media, astro-turfing etc.

    Endless growth is the ultimate lie upon which our current economy and political system is based. It will not survive much into the coming period of global environmental catastrophe.

    The “progressive” capitalist world has little chance of surviving. Le Pen may prove the least of your worries. 🙂

    An accurate assessment.

  36. “Ray’s view is that a Corbyn election would effectively off the opportunity for a complete restart of the Brexit negotiations.”

    All comments from the EU say there are no other options on the table.. they are saying to any UK administration take it or leave it or leave with no agreement .

    The penny will drop on the Poms one day that the EU is at stake here & the EU don’t give a stuff for the xenophobic Poms that want OUT. The UK has absolutely no bargaining power at all & that includes Corbyn.

  37. a r @ #2312 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 9:46 am

    KayJay @ #2303 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 8:31 am

    Find the Emus and Magpies

    Are we just ignoring the thylacine, then?

    Sorry my friend. Synchronicity strikes again. There have been a few items lately about the Thylacine . Of course we wot know stuff realise that a significant population of these fabled creatures exist together with the Bunyip and the NSW Red Nosed Rum Hornswoggler. A small colony of these last may still be viewed on visiting day at one of Australia’s finest nature reserves pictured below.

    Protecting society’s scum: at risk native creatures.* Inside Long Bay Nature Reserve.

    *Some of our best-known animals are the kangaroo, koala, echidna, dingo, platypus, wallaby, wombat and obeid . Australia’s native animals can often be difficult to spot in the wild, but you are guaranteed to see them in our world-class zoos and wildlife parks across our major cities and regional areas.
    😵😵😵😵

  38. ”
    Boerwar says:
    Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 9:42 am
    Ven
    I appreciate the point about what can be achieved from opposition.
    However my point is that none of Corbyn’s Brexit ‘options’ are real – that is to say, he is dudding his voters.
    Note that Ray, who hails from the UK, begs strongly to differ.
    Ray’s view is that a Corbyn election would effectively off the opportunity for a complete restart of the Brexit negotiations.
    ”
    Ray may be Corbyn fan. Who knows? Whether it is a Tory of Labour Government, if the UK wants come out of this mess with least damage then it has to agree that it made a huge make a humiliating back down and shelve Brexit. Otherwise, it does not matter which government is in power, the country is going down.
    So the only option left with least damage to UK is Shelving Brexit.

  39. poroti:

    [‘Australian Cardinal George Pell has been removed from Pope Francis’ inner circle of advisers.’]

    Given His Eminence is yet to face trial, His Holiness should afford Cardinal Pell procedural fairness, unless the Pope knows something we don’t know(?).

  41. Spence – Agree. But I assume Labor can’t even get an extension of brexit onto the Parliamentary agenda without May’s agreement, and she won’t agree. Not sure about the House of Commons procedure on that. So it would have to come as part of a no-confidence motion in the government. Corbyn only gets one shot at that. So he has to wait until everyone is looking right over the cliff face

  42. Good morning all,

    Morrison once again looking for something, anything, to stir up a fight with labor. Now it is religious freedom.

    This attempt, like all previous attempts , will easily be countered by labor.

    1) Why is Morrison trying to divide Austeakian on a issue that could have been debated and legislated with bipartisan support months ago ?

    The government has kept the Ruddock report under wraps for months and now, just before Christmas and a federal election, releases the report and straight away is determined to make it a election issue instead of seeking bipartisan support from across the Parliament.

    2) Labor is not opposed to a stand alone religious descrimination act but needs to see the detail of any proposal and the draft legislation. Once again, this could have been done and dusted months ago. Why only release the report now ?

    Put it all back onto Morrison to explain why he sees the need to make this a election issue given the length of time the government has had the Ruddock report and that labor is, and always has been, prepared to work with the government to ensure that gay and lesbian teachers and students are not discriminated against on the basis of their sexuality while at the same time ensuring religious schools are able to continue to teach the tenants of their faith and uphold their religious beliefs.

    Push the line that Australians are sick of division so why does Morrison see the need to pick a fight on this issue ?It will end up inflicting pain and suffering on young Australians just as the SSM plebiscite did. Just as the plebiscite did this approach will achieve nothing except divide the country and inflict hurt on those already at their most vulnerable.

    Sit down and work with labor. Do not divide the country.

    Cheers and a great day to all.

  43. ”
    don says:
    Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 9:47 am
    Wayne @ #2305 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 9:35 am

    Our great LNP will win the next election due in May next year and Scott Morrison will be a great PM for this great country of ours…..

    Welcome back, Wayne, we missed ya!

    Whaddaya reckon about the Victorian election result? Bewdy, eh?
    ”
    Don when you asked the question “Whaddaya reckon about the Victorian election result? Bewdy, eh?”, Wayne bot head exploded because Wayne is not programmed to answer any other question other than say
    “Our great LNP will win the next election due in May next year and Scott Morrison will be a great PM for this great country of ours…..
    ”
    They are now reassenbling Wayne again. 🙂

  45. Mavis Smith

    Pell still has the uber important finance position so just a bit of ‘distancing’ to reduce the splatter on the pope when/if the merde bomb explodes.

  46. Natasha Bertrand
    Verified account

    @NatashaBertrand
    .@RepAdamSchiff tells @CNN that the House Intel Committee is already in touch with Cohen’s lawyer about bringing him in to testify, potentially before he begins his prison sentence in March.
    44 replies 352 retweets 1,514 likes

  47. Someone commented on Corbyn’s masterful inactivity and my thinking Labor can do things from opposition.

    Well there are two things.

    First Corbyn was right in his masterful inaction. The Scottish leader of the SNP and others were calling for a no confidence motion and Corbyn did not do so resulting in the farce highlighting the division in the Tories.

    As for my comments on doing something in opposition.

    When its a minority parliament you can do things if you get the numbers. The point is you have to get the numbers. With the encryption bill Labor had the numbers to do at least one amendment to delay that legislation.

    The reason everyone here quotes they did not do so was due to fear of a fear campaign. I disagree with that view but it is a valid view. My reason for the disagreement is I think the fear campaign won’t work. Others disagree with me with some justification on past experience with boats.

    The legislation itself was flawed as Labor people themselves have said. Its all trust us we will fix it later. As Dutton has rejected amendments from Labor like Howard did with Tampa then it means Labor is going to have to do an Abbott and repeal the legislation with legislation.

    Corbyn has done masterful inaction by not voting no confidence in the government yet because he is waiting for a party like the DUP to move the no confidence motion. Thats when he will know he has the numbers not before. Ditto with my comments on Labor.

    Labor needs to realise that they can do more when they have the numbers. The key being have the numbers. Like all here we don’t know when Labor will have the numbers. I have said Labor can’t move a no confidence motion but may be able to refer Dutton to the High Court. Thats my speculation on the numbers.

    My comments about Labor being more bold in policy and less liberal lite following the LNP are about the things you take to an election and actually reading the polling and results from an election.

    The political landscape has changed. Much to the chagrin of the right. The country is more progressive than we keep being told. Even on this blog. Look at the numbers. Victorian election results. Wentworth election results

    Even Briefly should recognise a WA premier defending the state and releasing publicly their submission on the space agency against an Senator attacking them for sticking up for Western Australia on the decision will gain Labor more votes in WA than it loses.

    The point is that Labor can afford to be bold on policies precisely because the LNP have over reached. Yes that includes with National Security. Labor seems to have realised this with boats not taking the bait to back indefinite detention just because Dutton has shouted listening to doctors is a threat to national security.

    Plus. Despite what some have been posting Voting 1 Green and Labor 2 is not a wasted vote. It sends a message to Labor that forces Labor right to listen to voters. Even if its just my one vote in the whole electorate that is otherwise voting Labor.

    We do have preferential voting not the US or UK First past the Post voting when yes that would be a valid argument.

  48. Yes Malcolm Turnbull – a Prime Minister who actually stuck around a long time by recent standards, but who left no legacy. I never had high expectations of him. Anyone of his reputed liberal outlook would not have wanted to be part of Howard’s team, let alone Abbott’s. However, lots if people must have been disappointed.

  50. Doyley

    The bill by Morrison is an own goal. See the Marriage Survey results. Thats the actions by the LNP along with climate change etc that got voters to vote for Phelps. Thats why their vote is collapsing in what were once safe Liberal heartland seats.

    They might drive the vote for Labor down a bit in some Western Sydney seats but will do so by driving Liberal voters away with the same results we saw in Hawthorn and Wentworth.

    The more noise Greens and Phelps make on this along with Labor highlighting Katter and Anning and Christensen etc the better. 🙂

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