Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

No Christmas cheer for the Coalition from the final Newspoll for 2018.

The Australian reports Newspoll has closed its 2018 account with another crushing 55-45 lead for Labor, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (up one), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one). Scott Morrison edges to net negative territory on his personal ratings, being down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 45%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 36% and up one to 51%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 44-36, narrowing from 46-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1731.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,921 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Steve

    ‘However, lots if people must have been disappointed.’

    _____________________________________

    He would have been such a great leader if only his party had gotten behind him. (sarcasm emoji)

  2. Just checking Tony Abbott’s Twitter feed – he has been silent for 3 days. Seeking some absolution from his sins via the intercession of his confessor?

  3. doyley @ #2339 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 10:18 am

    Good morning all,

    Morrison once again looking for something, anything, to stir up a fight with labor. Now it is religious freedom.

    This attempt, like all previous attempts , will easily be countered by labor.

    1) Why is Morrison trying to divide Austeakian on a issue that could have been debated and legislated with bipartisan support months ago ?

    The government has kept the Ruddock report under wraps for months and now, just before Christmas and a federal election, releases the report and straight away is determined to make it a election issue instead of seeking bipartisan support from across the Parliament.

    2) Labor is not opposed to a stand alone religious descrimination act but needs to see the detail of any proposal and the draft legislation. Once again, this could have been done and dusted months ago. Why only release the report now ?

    Put it all back onto Morrison to explain why he sees the need to make this a election issue given the length of time the government has had the Ruddock report and that labor is, and always has been, prepared to work with the government to ensure that gay and lesbian teachers and students are not discriminated against on the basis of their sexuality while at the same time ensuring religious schools are able to continue to teach the tenants of their faith and uphold their religious beliefs.

    Push the line that Australians are sick of division so why does Morrison see the need to pick a fight on this issue ?It will end up inflicting pain and suffering on young Australians just as the SSM plebiscite did. Just as the plebiscite did this approach will achieve nothing except divide the country and inflict hurt on those already at their most vulnerable.

    Sit down and work with labor. Do not divide the country.

    Cheers and a great day to all.

    I would hope that either Morrison or Shorten would sniff the wind and deduce that religious interference in our secular society is a growing concern.

    True equality isn’t that hard a concept to comprehend.

  4. Libertarian Unionist, sorry logged out last night, and only now saw your reply. Yes, I’d forgotten about the little Turk. 🙂 It seems that people want to believe in the magic. It’s a human trait.

  5. Brexitexit? Seems the only sensible option given the mess that the UK is now in, or at least defer Brexit a year or two and have another referendum.

  7. ‘Steve777 says:
    Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 10:34 am

    Brexitexit? Seems the only sensible option given the mess that the UK is now in, or at least defer Brexit a year or two and have another referendum.’

    Muddling through IS quite traditional. The problem is that they have capital strike and capital flight on their hands. Open-ended uncertainty is more likely to make this worse.

  8. Oh I forgot to give my opinion on Brexit itself. I think its more likely that a hard Brexit is going to happen. The next likely option will be a second referendum.

    Either way expect a change in government. All it takes is the DUP to stop supporting the Tories. They are not happy campers.

  9. Hmmm. Precisely what I was thinking
    ____
    Claude Taylor
    Claude Taylor
    @TrueFactsStated
    ·
    6m
    Ok.
    @RWPUSA
    is on MSNBC talking about a negotiated plea deal for Trump/family to resign. A comprehensive deal. Federal and State. He’s right. #bitterpill but he’s right. Don’t hate me.

  11. Steve

    Brexit and sensible parted company when Cameron called for the first Referendum. I agree with whoever posted about the Remain campaign. The Tories did run it so it reflected their smug we are right attitude.

  12. Victoria @ #1989 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 9:39 am

    Hmmm. Precisely what I was thinking
    ____
    Claude Taylor
    Claude Taylor
    @TrueFactsStated
    ·
    6m
    Ok.
    @RWPUSA
    is on MSNBC talking about a negotiated plea deal for Trump/family to resign. A comprehensive deal. Federal and State. He’s right. #bitterpill but he’s right. Don’t hate me.

    If it gets Herr Trump and the rest of them gone, then go for it. So long as it also includes a commitment from them to stay the fuck out of U.S. politics for as long as any of them shall live.

  13. Brexit is a thoroughly reactionary project. It was sponsored by and for reactionaries and is intended to satisfy reactionary longings for an unattainable past. The same phobic impulses that gave rise to Brexit haunt other European countries too. These impulses are inherently destructive and are a real menace to harmony, peace, order, democracy and prosperity in Europe.

    These impulses – variously nationalist, xenophobic, racist, violent, elitist and repressive – are led from the Right but they also have currency on the Left as well in some places, including in parts of Momentum/UK Labour.

    It will only really be possible to defuse the Brexiteers by challenging their reactionary ambitions and character. There’s no supposing that the Conservatives have this capacity. They do not. They are Brexit’s major emissaries. The question is whether UK Labour can do it. In the case of Corbyn, the question is whether he even wants to.

  14. Victoria @ #2359 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 7:39 am

    Hmmm. Precisely what I was thinking
    ____
    Claude Taylor
    Claude Taylor
    @TrueFactsStated
    ·
    6m
    Ok.
    @RWPUSA
    is on MSNBC talking about a negotiated plea deal for Trump/family to resign. A comprehensive deal. Federal and State. He’s right. #bitterpill but he’s right. Don’t hate me.

    I still want to see them all carted off in orange jumpsuits!

  15. a r

    I guess it is important for there to be a smooth transition. chaos and upheaval is not a great option.

    If Trump has no money. It is punishment enough. Cos for him it is all about power and money.

  16. Sceptic and Ven

    I’m a Labour member (Remainer) who didn’t vote for Corbyn for leader either time

    I’m merely pointing out certain facts

    I’ll repeat, a new Government can cancel the Art 50 request and start again. That’s not me or Corbyn saying that it’s the European Court, just last week

    Obviously if the current government did that it would be a waste of time really because their basic position wouldn’t change on what they wanted, and concessions asked for before would not be granted now

    If it were an incoming Corbyn Labour government it would be different simply because his negotiating position would be totally different. Contrary to Boerwar’s assertions Corbyn envisaged a rather different Brexit than May eg a full customs union and full freedom of movement for example. As I stated earlier it’s risible to suggest the EU negotiating stance wouldn’t change after such a fundamental change in the UK political position

    From a purely partisan standpoint of course I wouldn’t mind the Tories copping the blowback from where we are now .. I wonder myself if there aren’t a few Tories, in safe seats of course, musing on the idea of Labour taking over the s#@! show now and casting their confidence votes accordingly

  20. .

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeeves_Saves_the_Cow-Creamer

    Sir Roderick Spode is appalled when he learns that Madeline Bassett is engaged to Gussie Fink-Nottle. Gussie is naturally terrified of Spode, and even the smallest misunderstanding will put his life in jeopardy. Spode has two jobs—he is the leader of the Black Shorts,[2] a tiny group of teenage boys dressed in black shorts, but also designs and sells women’s underwear, being the proprietor of a lingerie shop called Eulalie Soeurs. He is perpetually in fear that his followers in his first role will discover his second one and it is the threat of this disclosure which is used by Jeeves to stop him assaulting Bertie. Jeeves reveals the secret pseudonym “Eulalie” and finds a way of keeping Spode from beating Bertie into a jelly.

    Comparing picture A with Picture B- it will be readily observed that a marked similarity exists and we may therefore conclude that a plan to market ladies knickers either exists or has been executed.

    What then is required is a suitable name for Mr. William’s ladies couture and millinery shoppe.

    Sorry, my FD has arrived.
    EOM. ❗

    .

  22. The Brexit options are pretty confusing.

    1. If Parliament does not agree to the May deal before the two years are up, what happens? Is there automatically a hard Brexit?

    2. If there is a hard Brexit, can it be reversed by withdrawing the section 50 notice, or is that notice spent once the notice period has expired?

    3. If the notice period has expired, would that mean that Britain would have to reapply for entry to the EU (which it is not going to do of course)?

  23. The Lib Dems wrote a Letter to to Corbyn that was cosigned by the SNP, Plaid Cyrmu and Greens asking for him to to table a no confidence motion. Pretty sure they would want an election based on that.

  24. TPOF

    Yes no action by parliament means default is a hard Brexit.

    For any other action including extending or revoking article 50 requires positive action by either the parliament or maybe the executive. (I am doubtful about the executive. I know that legislation is required to avoid hard Brexit by extending without revoking. I suspect same probably true to revoke)

  25. TPOF

    I’m not a complete expert on this but:
    1. Yes. If no alternative deal is reached, there is a hard Brexit.

    2. Don’t know for sure. Once the 2Y expires Britain is no longer in the EU, so presumably their right to withdraw their EU notices expires too.

    3. Yes, it could conceivable reapply at some point in the future.

    The most likely outcomes, in particualr order, are:
    1. May Deal.
    2. Hard Brexit.
    3. Brexit Cancelled (before time expires).

    One thing you haven’t noted is the theoretical possibility of withdrawing, then immediately resubmitting article 50…

  26. Michael Roddan
    ‏Verified account @MichaelRoddan

    Liberal MP Stuart Robert met payday lender Cash Converters before he was made Assistant Treasurer and put in charge of legislation cracking down on the scandal-ridden payday lending sector

  27. Nicholas @ #2312 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 9:46 am

    I sent this email to Chris Bowen and I hope to hear back with the good news that he has decided to abandon surplus fetishism.

    Dear Chris,

    I am concerned that you and Bill Shorten have hemmed yourselves in with meaningless and inappropriate commitments to “get back to surplus.” The consequence will be that you will inflict on Australia increased private sector indebtedness with all the attendant financial fragility and negative impacts for living standards. You will disappoint the voters almost from the very beginning and you will end up with two terms at the most. …

    I wonder if he managed to stop laughing long enough to read any further?

  28. Someone raised the question about how we do we know about suppression orders if there is a suppression order.

    Boerwar, you might be thinking of my question about the UK’s super injunctions, which apparently are a suppression order where the fact of the order itself is suppressed. It’s an odd concept for an open society. How do you know you’re not supposed to talk about something if you’re not allowed to be told that you’re to allowed to talk about that thing? How do we, who do not know, even know such a thing exists or has ever been used? And so on.

    I was struggling with the concepts. On reflection this morning that second tier suppression might have a place in cases of national security, but even so that second tier suppression order should probably have a sunset clause.

  29. IoM

    Re that letter about the No Confidence motion, Labour figures reported that the SNP were privately acknowledging that a N/C motion wouldn’t pass at this particular time

    This was their reason for not proceeding with it just yet

    I make no statement as to the truth of it but that is what they said

  30. One of the reasons amongst plenty of other of why the Morrison Bill on religion is an own goal.

    Hanson wants to discriminate against Islam.

  31. RA

    Thanks. Re this: “One thing you haven’t noted is the theoretical possibility of withdrawing, then immediately resubmitting article 50…”, I can’t imagine it happening unless there is agreement from the EU about this course of action. I think it belongs in the realm of theory totally unless the British Government wanted to signal a desire to the EU to go through the process of reversing Brexit. There is no way that May would do this.

  32. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 10:30 am
    doyley @ #2339 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 10:18 am

    Good morning all,

    Morrison once again looking for something, anything, to stir up a fight with labor. Now it is religious freedom.

    WE have only recently seen the report from the royal commission into child abuse. IT showed that religious organisations have exploited their privileged position to protect those who abuse children. What is Morrison’s response. Provide these organisations with even more privilege.

  34. TPOF

    No, to be clear on this Article 50 business

    The European Court was asked to rule on this and handed down the judgment last week

    The UK can unilaterally withdraw Article 50 at any time before the 2 years are up

    No if’s, no but’s and at that point there would be no ‘Brexit’

  35. Mavis Smith @ #2314 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 8:47 am

    [‘Cohen will have to surrender to authorities by March 6.’]

    So he gets to have Christmas with his family. In Australia, following a plea(s) of guilty, the prisoner would be, immediately after sentencing, taken to a holding cell, to be transported to prison proper.

    I’ve puzzled about this in the past. I don’t know, but I suspect it is because Cohen is a “white collar” criminal. He gets to wind up his affairs before reporting to jail.

  37. Morrison starts with a false statement about a fundamental right of belief.

    Belief has to give way to facts. e.g.. Climate Change otherwise we could just have a religion of climate denying to prevent action on that.

  41. Ray

    ‘I’ll repeat, a new Government can cancel the Art 50 request and start again. That’s not me or Corbyn saying that it’s the European Court, just last week’

    I agree that the trigger is there, but to trigger what?
    For the trigger to trigger anything other than a hard Brexit, the trigger assumes that the EU would be willing to do a complete restart with the negotiations.
    There is currently no such willingness.

  42. I am considering establishing a branch of the Church of Satan in Australia. To help promote the church I want to establish a school to provide education that complies with the beliefs of the church. Should I write to the Prime Minister and seek his support?

  44. Michael Koziol
    ‏Verified account @michaelkoziol
    2m2 minutes ago

    Scott Morrison confirms the govt will adopt Ruddock’s recommendation to get rid of the ban on blasphemous ship names #auspol

  45. One of Britain’s leading barristers has claimed that a senior BBC journalist has told him that the public broadcaster has knowingly indulged in showing “coded negative imagery” of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn since his election in 2015.

    ***
    Jolyon Maugham QC, director of the Good Law Project, a group which recently helped win the case in the EU courts for the UK to unilaterally stop Brexit if they wish to do so, took to social media to post the alleged evidence of bias against Corbyn.

    https://www.rt.com/uk/446186-lawyer-bbc-corbyn-bias/

  47. BW

    The court case means the EU does not get to reject the UK revoking article 50 thus remaining in the EU. Not one of the 27 member countries.

    Its up to the UK to trigger article 50

    Does the EU get to have a say on if the UK can trigger that or is it a right as part of the treaty of signing up to be a member?

  48. @michealkoziol

    Gay students/teachers issue will be punted to the Law Reform Commission, which won’t report until the second half of next year #auspol

  50. @verbaliser tweets

    Morrison also says “laws against blasphemy in the maritime acts probably need to be updated”. Swearing to god on the high seas a go.

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