Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

No Christmas cheer for the Coalition from the final Newspoll for 2018.

The Australian reports Newspoll has closed its 2018 account with another crushing 55-45 lead for Labor, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (up one), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one). Scott Morrison edges to net negative territory on his personal ratings, being down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 45%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 36% and up one to 51%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 44-36, narrowing from 46-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1731.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,921 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  3. clem
    I have answered the question.
    You did not like the answer.
    The answer is that farmers don’t want to give up their land for collectivization. Ever.
    I know this is difficult for socialists to understand because it does not fit with their ideology.
    But there it is.

  4. Nicholas – I suspect (???) the withdrawal has to come from the Crown (on the advice of the PM). What if May thumbs her nose at Parliament???? I suppose Lizzie II would have to give her the chop. What a mess.

  5. We know socialists reckon property is theft.

    Property (land) should never be viewed as completely ‘private’. You are not the sovereign of your land – never have been and never should. However, the certainty of land ownership and the ability to deal with it does have wide economic benefit. But it comes at a cost and less and less is done in this country to ameliorate that.

    Our commons are under threat (ef Areas of National Parks in Tasmania being leased to private interests for exclusive use of their clients). And I would argue that trespass laws here are draconian and rights of passing through should be brought in similar to the UK.

    And if times get really tough, try to justify how someone can have hectares of manicured gardens and uncultivated rolling hills for their private enjoyment while others starve.

    The sin of property we do disdain
    No man has any right to buy and sell the Earth for private gain
    By theft and murder they took the land
    Now everywhere the walls spring up at their command
    They make the laws to chain us well
    The clergy dazzle us with heaven or they damn us into hell
    We will not worship the God they serve
    The God of greed who feed the rich while poor men starve

  6. ar

    ‘Corbyn’s masterly inactivity’

    bwahahaha.

    At least Nero played the fiddle and got a result.

    Corbyn is a Brexiteer who was lying when he told Britons he could renegotiate May’s Draft.
    The EU has just been quite plain about that. No.
    So that is one of Corbyn’s three Brexit options gone.

    The second option, May’s Brexit Deal, has already been rejected by Corbyn.

    That leaves just one Brexit option – a hard Brexit.
    But it turns out that Corbyn has already rejected THAT as well.

    So, Corbyn the Brexiteer has NO Brexit options.

    Inaction? For sure.
    Masterly? A huge cockup.

  7. @Swamprat:

    “117 Tory MPs against May. They would have a majority with opposition parties in the Commons.

    They Could bring down the Government should they so desire.”

    I suspect that the hard Brexit-abbads always suspected they didn’t have the numbers to roll May in the party room, but were testing the waters to see how their ultimate move to cross the floor of the Commons on a Brexit vote and/or a No Conficence motion would play out. I reckon we’ll find out with the week.

  8. SH
    I understand your sentiments.
    The question is whether socialist theory works when applied to agriculture.
    IMO, the answer is no.
    That leaves two options: rejig socialist ideology.
    Or ignore the history of collectivization as well as the sure current knowledge that farmers do not want to collectivize.

  9. Boerwar there is something quite hysterical about your simplistic assertions and hyperbolic language. It really is unhinged. So we can equate the national Health Scheme and the nationalization of British Steel with the forced collectivization of Russian farming. Okay…. okay…. I understand…. nurse….. nurse!

  10. Boerwar above, re Brexit polling

    “When it is turned into a simple binary Brexit just wins”

    Not quite, on Remain vs. Theresa’s deal it’s 50-50 but on Remain vs. No Deal it’s 52-48 to Remain

    The three-way was 46% Remain, 27% each for Leave with the Deal and Leave with no Deal

    I did a follow-up post on that YouGov survey here (post no.8) https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/12/07/bludgertrack-54-3-45-7-labor/comment-page-1/#comments

    I personally think that a Referendum with all three options (the headbangers want No Deal on the ballot) would reaffirm Brexit

  14. ‘Anymore voices in you brain posing arguments with you this morning Boerwar? Lol.’

    Can we stop treating slurs about mental illness as if they’re lol-worthy?

    Implying that someone has a mental illness as a put down is based on the idea that having a mental illness means you’re inferior. This kind of attitude means people are reluctant to admit to having problems and to seek help when they need it.

    If you can’t critique what someone is saying, don’t bother responding at all.

  17. clem

    It is, IMO, immoral to use presumed mental illness as your way of prosecuting your case. I note in passing that it is remarkable how very often the Reds try to use this despicable tactic. Certainly the Reds in the Greens routinely resort to it when confronted with the consequences of their policies. I regard it as churlish projection.

    Just so you know. I have been a farmer. I grew up on a farm. My wife, ditto. Members of our extended families in three countries have been, and are, farmers for for as may centuries as we have records going back thereto. We routinely attend social gatherings such as weddings where the majority of those present are farmers or work on farmers or service farmers with machinery etc, etc, etc.

    Not one of them wants to collectivize their land for any reason whatsoever.

    Don’s story the other day of the farmer who lived next door to the kibbutz resonated very nicely for me. Here is a true story. It shows why collectivization will never, ever compete in productivity.

    The last party we visited was a nephew’s 21st.

    His father was the farmer in question. On the day of the 21st he was up before dawn, harvesting his crop. He popped in for the speeches and was then back to the harvest. He arrived as we were leaving – at 11pm. He was wiping his hands on an oily rag. He had just finished preparing the machinery so that he could get a quick start before the following dawn.
    We had saved a meal for him to eat for dinner.

  18. Australia seems to have preempted the world situation – we had our Trump (in Abbott) early and now the pendulum is swinging back.

    US will be another couple of years to be rid of Trump … and UK just escaped the horror of Johnson. Next election should mean a Labour govt as Brexit will continue to hurt — and the people would want of an alternative.

    I suspect that within the next 5 years, the world will have become more politically progressive again.

  21. j
    It would be nice to think that that would be true. Unfortunately, I believe that France will veer further right and that Le Pen looms.
    I would love to be wrong.

  23. @mjrowland68
    1h1 hour ago

    Great to see Australia exploiting a new export opportunity in the UK: ‘The Leadership Spill’. We can offer great expertise in this market.. #auspol

  24. So, Brexiteer Corbyn wins the general election.
    His Far Left Reality Avoiders who dominate British Labor insist that he runs on a platform of Brexit.
    A prime minister Corbyn would have three Brexit options.
    1. May’s Brexit.
    2. Renegotiation to which the EU has already said ‘No!’
    3. Hard Brexit.

    So, if you are a Brexiteer, a general election won’t change anything.
    Neither would a change in the Tory leadership.
    Neither would a British Labor government under Corbyn.

    If you are a serious investor wishing to invest serious private capital, would you take a punt on the UK right now? No. And the real investors are not investing.

  27. http://www.michaelsmithnews.com is not hosted or published in Australia.
    “I am currently not in Australia.” M. Smith

    This will show the absurdity of some Australian court rulings.

    I still haven’t read on a hypothetical level why one would have a suppression order, if on the basis of corrupting future actions it gives no credit to would be jourers being able to differentiate past decisions from future decisions.

  30. Someone raised the question about how we do we know about suppression orders if there is a suppression order.
    The suppression order was published when it was made.
    If I recall correctly, the suppression order in question was sought by both prosecution AND defence but for different reasons.

  32. Jenauthor

    We are at a crossroads of sorts.
    The UK brexit has to be sorted.
    France has to pick up its game. Macron has made a start, but heaps more needs to be done to assist those struggling.
    Otherwise Marie Le Pen will prevail next time.
    And of course the whole Trump Putin Saudi nexus needs to be dealt with.
    And yes I see things being better. An enlightening if you will

  33. Boerwar

    Your one-eyed obsession against Corbyn leads you astray, not for the first time

    You are just plain wrong, an election could change everything

    There are two options for a new government to renegotiate:

    a.Unilaterally revoke this Article 50 request – the European Court ruled last week this is possible – and reinvoke a fresh Art 50.

    b.Ask for an extension, the idea that the EUs current negotiating stance wouldn’t change if there were an Election and a change of Government is risible

  34. ‘Religious discrimination will soon be unlawful in Australia under new laws that will be announced by Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Thursday…’

    I thought it already was.

    ‘“Australia is a secular democracy but that does not mean that Australians are a godless people,” Mr Morrison told The Australian ahead of the announcement.

    “Australians have a diversity of faith and religious backgrounds and these should all be respected.”’

    How are they not?

    ‘The prime minister cited the example of “an attempt to prosecute the Tasmanian Catholic Archbishop Julian Porteous for upholding Catholic teachings about marriage”.’

    Oh – someone tried to do something and failed and that means we have to have legislation?

    ‘The new law would give people legal options if they felt they had been fired from a job or otherwise disadvantaged because of their genuinely-held religious beliefs.’

    So my genuinely held religious belief is that God doesn’t give two hoots about my sexuality. I tell my Catholic school classes this. I take it the church can’t sack me for doing so.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/we-are-not-godless-people-morrison-to-take-new-religious-discrimination-act-to-next-election?cid=news:socialshare:twitter

  35. Re Cartoon corner: Surely the Liberal Party could get a better propagandist than Paul Zanetti. His work is as subtle as an alarm clock, as sophisticated as an ad for VB, as funny as a toothache. In particular, Zanetti’s latest effort is stupid, obnoxious and offensive.

  36. SH
    I understand your sentiments.
    The question is whether socialist theory works when applied to agriculture.

    Oh. You lot still on those corn dollies? Wasnt that the discussion from a few days back?

    I was trying to weedle the blog towards one of my pet topics. I cant tell you how angry I get when a part of a beach is closed down for a private function. Or when a National party hack (Joyce) gets cranky that some greenie from the government wants to check if a farmer is illegally clearing land. The farmer might own (or lease) the land, but the bushland (if significant native vegetation) and the animals they support and the air they produce is commons.

  38. “Should all be respected”…I am sorry, didn’t we just have a Royal Commission, and subsequent (ongoing) trials showing some organised religions, right up to their leaders, rape and abuse children. Thousands of times?
    Why should I ‘respect’ those religions? They should actually be disbanded.

  39. Morrison’s religious discrimination bill is nothing more than yet another attempt to wedge Labor before the election.

    From the Oz article posted by BK:

    “Labor’s refusal so far to accept religious-based schools should be allowed to impose what are known as rules of general application, or school rules, such as a requirement for all students to attend chapel, meant this issue could not be dealt with by parliament before the end of the sitting year,” Mr Porter said.

    “If Labor is able to support the government’s amendments to ensure religious schools can educate within the doctrine and tenets of their faith, then this issue could be dealt with in the first sitting days of 2019.”

    He also said there was no reason for any political party to oppose the introduction of a religious discrimination act. “I don’t see what arguments you would legitimately raise as to why we should protect people from discrimin­ation based on their age, their race, their sex or the fact of a disability but not similarly protect them by virtue of the fact that they are a ­religious person,” Mr Porter said.

  40. Steve777

    Many years ago W.E.Green (“Weg”) got moved on by the then “Herald” when they thought his humour was a bit past it. Even at that stage he was infinitely better than Z has ever been.

    And of course he also made all those wonderful VFL/AFL Premiership posters. (Hope springs eternal!)

  41. Madonna (wasn’t she in that film D S Susan?)

    Yes indeedie do.
    Personally, whilst I did have a Madonna poster in my room, I am a Cyndi Lauper kinda guy.

  43. The world becoming more “progressive” (whatever that means)?

    The progressive capitalist world is dominated by globalising liberals. They have a serious political problem as their economic policies are dependent on endless growth, the freedom to exploit labour and resources without the hinderance of borders nor national or local aspirations.

    The decline of traditional social democratic/socialist parties as they discard their values has left the field of protest to the right. Meanwhile the Corporate State is quietly consolidating its power.

    Australia is well on the way with both major parties supporting ever growing security controls over the citizenry, compiling private information, disbanding of government functions outsourced to global corporations (eg Serco), trade treaties that entrench global corporations above elected governments, the suborning of politicians, corporate funding of political parties, media, astro-turfing etc.

    Endless growth is the ultimate lie upon which our current economy and political system is based. It will not survive much into the coming period of global environmental catastrophe.

    The “progressive” capitalist world has little chance of surviving. Le Pen may prove the least of your worries. 🙂

  44. SK

    If I remember, she actually wasn’t actually that bad in that film. I think singers/musicians make better actors than models (probably because they are used to performing a role on stage rather than being close to expressionless in shows or photo shoots).

  45. March 2019 is going to be interesting:
    Schrödinger’s Cardinal has his legal waveform collapsed.
    May leads her pack of Tory hounds over the pallid cliffs of Doomver.
    ScumMo’s scuppers overflow.
    In the US, some of the Manhattan Mobster Family debts fall due to some very short tempered people – with nowt but a few 2020-susceptible Senate votes and a blatantly stacked USSC between Il Douche and a 5th Avenue gibbet.

  48. ray

    You may know the EU better than I do! You are certainly closer to the action.

    Look at it from the point of view of the EU governments.
    Every negotiation involves losing skin.
    Every negotiation involves compromises.
    For the EU, every single compromise in the May Draft involved 27 governments having to go back and persuade THEIR democratic parliaments that THIS is the best deal on the table.
    Negotiation No 1 has taken 18 months.

    Assuming there is a general election triggered by a vote against the May Draft the new UK government might be bedded down and ready for a new set of negotiations in another four months or so.

    So, Negotiation No 1 takes 2 years. Meanwhile, the uncertainties are damaging the UK as they are damaging confidence in the EU and in the rests of the world.

    Let’s look at Negotiation No 2 from the EU perspective.

    It might take another 18 months to 2 years.
    Why would the EU negotiating side have any confidence that after this spectacular display of national bad faith, Negotiation 2, would create a binding result given British governance?

    A Corbyn UK would want to start Negotiation 2 where Negotiation 1 finished. In other words, it would want to put all the existing EU compromises in the bag and go back for a fresh wave of EU compromises.
    From an EU perspective, this is a bad faith negotiating tactic.

    In any case, why would a Corbyn government be able to achieve a restart of the negotiations if a May Government has not been able to do so?

    Apart from any and all of the above, there is zero evidence that Corbyn has a workable solution to the Irish Question, for example.

    So, you may be right. Corbyn may be doing ‘masterful inactivity’. He may be able to trigger an EU cave in on restarting the negotiations. He may be able to extract huge extra compromises from the EU in those negotiations. He may be able to devise a solution for the Gordian Knot of the Irish Border. He may be able to reunite the disunited United Kingdom and come up with a Corbyn Draft that is supported by the UK population. My judgement, on his track record, nup.

    But then again, if Albion is being perfidious, perhaps so is the EU?

    Maybe the EU is happy with the status quo and would be happy to string out the negotiations for another couple of years, even with the intent that they would fail in the end, while the EU continues to loot the British economy of various profitable economic functions?

  49. shellbell:

    [‘…Victoria is strangely reluctant to believe that jurors will only consider the evidence in the case before them and be guided in so doing by the directions of the judge.’]

    Victoria is the only Australian jurisdiction to accept the proposition that a judicial direction to a jury does not purge it from only considering the evidence before it. I thus endorse the gag order, with the qualification that in the digital era, it’s quite easy to ascertain the identify of a person to whom a suppression order refers to, particularly where that person has a national/international profile.

  50. If I remember, she actually wasn’t actually that bad in that film.

    I dont remember the film at all but I do remember she was praised for her acting. That could be good cutting, or low expectations, or she was in fact quite good.
    David Bowie was pretty good too. Although completely upstaged by Jennifer Connelly in Labyrinth.

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