Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

No Christmas cheer for the Coalition from the final Newspoll for 2018.

The Australian reports Newspoll has closed its 2018 account with another crushing 55-45 lead for Labor, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (up one), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one). Scott Morrison edges to net negative territory on his personal ratings, being down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 45%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 36% and up one to 51%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 44-36, narrowing from 46-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1731.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,921 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. ‘Sohar says:
    Monday, December 10, 2018 at 7:44 am

    With regard to Sydney, I think similar problems can be identified for the Liberals and Labor. Is it the water there, or does it stem from early colonialism / politics in the colony (Macquarie, Wentworth, Bligh, Rum Corps, etc.)?’

    This is a classic Greens misdirection. If it is innocent, it is but naive projection. If it is deliberate, its intent is to deceive.

    The problem that the Greens have in NSW and elsewhere is that they have been taken over by the Far Left Crazy Reds using classic Front tactics. All the Reds faves are deeply embedded but well-hidden in the Greens policies – some of which I have explicated and exposed to daylight because nobody else bothered so to do.

    The problem that the Liberals have is the same problem that the Greens have, except that it is a mirror image of the problem. The Liberals have been taken over by the Far Right Crazies.

    So, to that extent, your statement is true.

    But, where your statement is false is claiming that Labor is infested with the same sorts of crazies that infest the Greens and the Liberals.
    There is your classic Greens misdirection, right there.
    The majority of the Australian public does not like Ideological Crazies of any stripe.
    And THAT is one reason why the Greens are on 9% and the Liberals are on 30% and Labor is on 41%.

  2. Poroti
    “I suppose it is a bit hard to look dignified and prime ministerial with a beer glass the wrong way up perched on your head.”

    I doubt it gets much easier for ScumMo when the can is removed.

  3. Victoria @ #69 Monday, December 10th, 2018 – 8:22 am

    Jakub Janda
    Jakub Janda
    @_JakubJanda
    BREAKING:

    French intelligence is investigating foreign interference in Yellow Vest movement.

    That is a disgusting smear attempt from the ‘Establishment’ on people who have genuine cause for protest.The New York Times has been giving excellent coverage of the issues and why people are turning up and the conditions for average French workers. Macron is of by and for the Banker classes , slash tax for the super rich then ask the poor to pay. No need for RUSSIA!! to explain why they are bolshie.

    Similar claims were made during the elections. Big headlines for the claims, for the later conclusion from the French intelligence chief that it was a nothing burger not so big headlines.

  4. If Morrison is so concerned that ‘two doctors on Skype’, would undermine our border protection, perhaps there could be an amendment stating that said doctors must be on Facebook Messenger or Apple FaceTime?

  5. Our international reputation is suffering under this Coal govt.

    As four of the world’s largest oil and gas producers blocked UN climate talks from “welcoming” a key scientific report on global warming, Australia’s silence during a key debate is being viewed as tacit support for the four oil allies: the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kuwait.

    The end of the first week of the UN climate talks – known as COP24 – in Katowice, Poland, has been mired by protracted debate over whether the should “welcome” or “note” a key report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

    Australia did not speak during the at-times heated debate, a silence noted by many countries on the floor of the conference, Dr Bill Hare, the managing director of Climate Analytics and a lead author on previous IPCC reports, told Guardian Australia.

    “Australia’s silence in the face of this attack yesterday shocked many countries and is widely seen as de facto support for the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kuwait’s refusal to welcome the IPCC report,” Hare said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/10/australias-silence-during-climate-change-debate-shocks-cop24-delegates?CMP=soc_568

  6. Kyle GriffinVerified account@kylegriffin1
    3h3 hours ago
    House Democrats are looking to roll back a little-known, five-decade-old Capitol Hill regulation that allows members of Congress to keep guns in their offices and carry them around the Capitol grounds.

    Cue heads exploding at Fox News.

  7. Stephanie Peatling

    3m3 minutes ago

    Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton tells @SkyNewsAust people hold the govt responsible for chaotic parliamentary sitting weeks: “I’ve always seen parliament as a disadvantage for governments.”

    My head just exploded!

  8. lizzie @ #90 Monday, December 10th, 2018 – 8:56 am

    Stephanie Peatling

    3m3 minutes ago

    Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton tells @SkyNewsAust people hold the govt responsible for chaotic parliamentary sitting weeks: “I’ve always seen parliament as a disadvantage for governments.”

    My head just exploded!

    So he won’t mind when Labor never goes to parliament and just governs, if they win the election? 🙂

  9. V, p
    It is quite possible for both statements to be true at the same time.
    There is no doubt at all that there are genuine causes for colere en France.
    But the EU being what it is, there are pan-EU groups of rioters who can readily organize and travel to where the colere du jour happens to be.
    Whether Russian agitprop is involved in this case, who knows?
    We know that Putin does not hesitate to meddle in the affairs of other states and that his interference ranges from social media assaults aimed at undermining US democracy to outright invasions of other states.
    We know that Putin wants to break up the EU and that the Far Right and Far Left Crazies want to help him do just that.
    So there is no particular reason to think that Putin is NOT exploiting the situation to his ends.
    But perhaps he is have a day off and letting the french do it to themselves?
    Who knows?
    The core problem with french politics is that Macron has no organizational structure of his own and that all the major parties have deserted him.
    This creates a yawning power chasm that the Crazies of all ilks are exploiting to the max.

  10. No Collusion Crumbles As Russians Interacted With 14 People In Trump’s Orbit

    The Russians were not only involved in the Trump campaign. They were all through Trump’s life, and interacting with his friends an family.

    The Washington Post reported:
    Again and again and again, over the course of Donald Trump’s 18-month campaign for the presidency, Russian citizens made contact with his closest family and friends, as well as figures on the periphery of his orbit.

    Some offered to help his campaign and his real estate business. Some offered dirt on his Democratic opponent. Repeatedly, Russian nationals suggested Trump should hold a peacemaking sit-down with Vladi­mir Putin — and offered to broker such a summit.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/12/09/no-collusion-crumbles-as-russians-interacted-with-14-people-in-trumps-orbit.html

  11. So this is how evangelicals allegedly came to support Trump. No book or movie written about the Trump era will be able to do reality justice!

    Krishan Patel@IAmKrishanPatel

    Famous evangelical Christian leader Jerry Falwell Jr. and his wife together had a tryst with a 21-year-old pool boy in Florida. Michael Cohen then used this information to blackmail Jerry Falwell Jr. into endorsing Donald Trump’s campaign for President.

    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/aramroston/jerry-falwell-jr-michael-cohen-pool-attendant-lawsuit

  12. “Macron is of by and for the Banker classes , slash tax for the super rich then ask the poor to pay. No need for RUSSIA!!”…. The same was said about Hillary Clinton losing to Trump…. but Mueller is proving the deluded farther-left wrong…. as it is usually the case.

    With regard to Macron, I agree that he betrayed the expectations of many French voters who are well and truly fed up with Neoliberal austerity, where the poor and the middle class pay and the top 1%, big companies and multinationals cash up and are sheltered.

    There is no way out of the mess without getting rid of Neoliberalism…. still, there is nothing that Putin would love more than to see the USA and the EU neutralised by their own internal instability. Thinking that the Russians won’t exploit the opportunity is naïve and propagandistic.

  13. “I’ve always seen parliament as a disadvantage for governments.”

    Thanks. Now I have to clean up the mess here too. 😉

    I suppose it makes a smidgeon of sense for Dutton to say this if it has dawned on him that governing is more than just strutting about scaring people. Maybe he resents being held to account? Or maybe he is getting ready for opposition? Maybe, deep down, even he sees ..? Nah. Just kick him out!

  14. Sohar says:
    Monday, December 10, 2018 at 7:44 am
    Poroti: “The Greens, the Church of England of Aus. politics. Normal everywhere except Sydney where the ‘Raving Loons’ faction rule the roost.”

    With regard to Sydney, I think similar problems can be identified for the Liberals and Labor. Is it the water there, or does it stem from early colonialism / politics in the colony (Macquarie, Wentworth, Bligh, Rum Corps, etc.)?

    Many of us have recognised for a long time that the Rum Corp still run NSW.

  15. Trump tries to change the story, but Russia cloud darkens

    President Donald Trump is dipping into his playbook of distraction and denial, but even his skills at weaving alternative narratives cannot disguise the growing threat he faces from special counsel Robert Mueller.

    On Saturday, Trump announced the exit of chief of staff John Kelly, dismissed new revelations from the Russia probe, slapped familiar foes and promoted violent demonstrations challenging his erstwhile friend, French President Emmanuel Macron.

    But while he can spin new stories for the media to chase, the President seems powerless to stop Mueller’s relentless focus on his own conduct in the 2016 campaign and ever since.

    The depth of the President’s legal and political difficulties will only become clear when Mueller files a final report — and Trump’s team will have the chance to challenge his findings and make their defense. But it’s increasingly looking like the President’s denials and distractions are failing to keep up with the special counsel’s accelerating pace.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/08/politics/donald-trump-robert-mueller-john-kelly-russia-emmanuel-macron/index.html

  16. C@tmomma @ #162 Monday, December 10th, 2018 – 8:57 am

    lizzie @ #90 Monday, December 10th, 2018 – 8:56 am

    Stephanie Peatling

    3m3 minutes ago

    Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton tells @SkyNewsAust people hold the govt responsible for chaotic parliamentary sitting weeks: “I’ve always seen parliament as a disadvantage for governments.”

    My head just exploded!

    So he won’t mind when Labor never goes to parliament and just governs, if they win the election? 🙂

    The people in his electorate of Dickson seem likely to ensure Peter never has to return to Parliament again.

  17. Confessions @ #165 Monday, December 10th, 2018 – 9:02 am

    So this is how evangelicals allegedly came to support Trump. No book or movie written about the Trump era will be able to do reality justice!

    Krishan Patel@IAmKrishanPatel

    Famous evangelical Christian leader Jerry Falwell Jr. and his wife together had a tryst with a 21-year-old pool boy in Florida. Michael Cohen then used this information to blackmail Jerry Falwell Jr. into endorsing Donald Trump’s campaign for President.

    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/aramroston/jerry-falwell-jr-michael-cohen-pool-attendant-lawsuit

    There have been suspicions about others endorsing Trump. Case in point Lindsey Graham.

    https://thinkprogress.org/lindsey-grahams-stunningly-nihilistic-endorsement-of-president-trump-f5703f405c4f/

  18. Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton tells @SkyNewsAust people hold the govt responsible for chaotic parliamentary sitting weeks: “I’ve always seen parliament as a disadvantage for governments.”

    If only we had a dictatorship or one party state cries Reichspud Adolph Kipfler .

  19. There are mixed reports in the US regarding the appointment of Nick Ayres as Trumps new Chief Of Staff to replace John Kelly – CNN and others saying he turned the offer down …..

    Palmer Report‏Verified account @PalmerReport

    Congratulations to Nick Ayers for lasting zero days as Donald Trump’s new White House Chief of Staff.

    Donald Trump’s day so far:

    – Adam Schiff talks about Trump going to prison
    – Nick Ayers turns down Trump’s Chief of Staff job
    – Ayers also resigning from current job on Pence’s staff
    – The rats are fleeing because they know it’s over
    – It’s still only 4:45pm

  20. Roman Quaedvlieg has been on Twitter dismantling the Coalition’s arguments against medical transfers of Nauru/Manus detainees:

    Roman Quaedvlieg

    @quaedvliegs

    A bit of advice for the combatant parties on border security. Take it or leave it:

    1. A tightly controlled medical transfer system for those in genuine need will not result in another armada of boats;

    2. If the gateways to Australia are a dangerous sea journey, five years on Nauru, getting ill to the point of needing an urgent medical transfer & then fighting a legal battle, then it’s likely to disincentive the vast majority;

    3. There is a way to ensure the decision-making on medical transfers is assured so that it’s neither activist-influenced nor bluntly rejects genuine requests;

    4. If someone is transferred for medical treatment who is of character concern, then security arrangements can be made for the duration of the treatment, just like is done for onshore detainees;

    5. They can be kept in held detention, escorted for the duration of the treatment & returned to detention. This happens all the time;

    6. I don’t understand the point that medical transfers will result in threats to the community. That’s a separate decision as to whether they’ll be held in detention or not.

  21. lizzie@8:34 am

    My understanding of the article follows:

    Currently they get paid casual loadings. The court decision means they need to be paid annual leave/sick leave/Long service leave .

    What the government is trying to do is remove the casual loadings in the future

  22. citizen says:
    Monday, December 10, 2018 at 8:15 am
    Another big story in Murdoch’s Oz:

    “EXCLUSIVE
    Unis declare war on free speech
    REBECCA URBAN
    Australian universities are becoming increasingly hostile to free speech, an audit by the Institute of Public Affairs has found.”
    ————————————

    “Audit” by the IPA?? That’s like having our AEC’s running of our elections “audited” by the GRU or the Chinese MSS.

  23. Jennifer Oriels column. Um, never seen such delusion exhibited before-even in the Australian.
    Even Coalition supporters must be cringing. This is trumpian in the extreme.

  24. Donald Trump’s day so far:

    – Adam Schiff talks about Trump going to prison
    – Nick Ayers turns down Trump’s Chief of Staff job
    – Ayers also resigning from current job on Pence’s staff
    – The rats are fleeing because they know it’s over
    – It’s still only 4:45pm

    Plus:

    – Marco Rubio issues a warning to Trump about pardoning Manafort and that nobody is above the law.
    – Likely incoming House Judiciary Committee chairperson Jerry Nadler says he will shut down that committee’s investigation into FBI bias.

  25. Confessions says: Monday, December 10, 2018 at 9:34 am

    GG:

    Yes Graham’s about-face on Trump was so abrupt it gave many people whiplash!

    ********************************************************

    There were ‘rumours’ that Trump may have had access to Grahams missing e-mails ….. and a bit of kompromat to use against him to see things in a better light ….

    Graham: Russians hacked my campaign email account
    https://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/14/politics/lindsey-graham-hacking-russia-donald-trump/index.html

    The “Little Jerk” Once defined by his loathing for Trump, Lindsey Graham is now all-in for the president. Why?

    http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/09/what-happened-to-lindsey-graham.html

  26. Torchbearer from last evening re Chris Bath,

    I grew up in the street behind Bathy. She’s great. She was working at 2ue back int eh day when Gough came to UNSW, and I bumped into her. She got me intot he press conference and to meet the great man himself. Can’t speak highly enough of her.

  27. Sohar says:
    Monday, December 10, 2018 at 8:41 am
    I assume 21% are undecided.

    @GhostWhoVotes
    2m2 minutes ago
    #Newspoll Who will win the next election: L/NP 24 ALP 55 #auspol
    ————————————-

    Perhaps some Greens or ON diehards actually think their party will win!

  28. Transcript revealed of assassinated Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s final moments as he screams for his life

    The transcript of the horrifying recording of Jamal Khashoggi’s has been released in an exclusive CNN report Sunday.

    According to the CNN report, Khashoggi exclaimed that he couldn’t breathe and then screamed as the transcript revealed the sound of a saw could be heard.

    CNN said that this was only a partial transcript and the full one might reveal more identifying characteristics about who might have been involved.

    The CIA briefed top Intelligence Committee Senators this week, leaving many horrified and others scrambling to excuse the bizarre responses coming out of the White House defending Saudi officials.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/transcript-revealed-assassinated-washington-post-journalist-jamal-khashoggis-final-moments-screamed/

  29. The “Kill Bill” startegy of the Libs is being flipped by Labor to being an advantage to Labor. Constantly using Shorten’s name builds name recognition and trust as Australians look to a real alternative to the chaos of this current Liberal Government.

    In adverstising, the most important thing is to have the buyers remember your name! Constant repetition achieves that remarkably well.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1071693449475239936

  30. Here in Melbourne we are experiencing random overnight temps of mid to late twenties during early spring. Not normal.

    How can people not notice these dramatic changes

    It depends upon where you are. Sydney and the Southern and Central parts of Eastern NSW have been experiencing a quite benign Spring and early Summer this season, unlike the last few years.

  31. phoenixRed:

    I can well imagine Lindsey Graham having skeletons in the closet that could be exploited in exchange for his support for Trump.

  32. Michael A,

    Some of the Unis a playing with fire in some policy decisions around protections against offence and other activist policies that are outside their remit. Basically, some delicate petals need to learn how to argue back, rather than scream offence and cant. But the bigger issue is that some of the Unis have implemented policies that are not backed by real-world law, and if push comes to shove, they will have the shit dropped on them from very high up.

    Now, I’m not backing the IPA’s assessment of the situation, but the idiots in uni administration provide grist for their mill, and more importantly, are setting themselves up for a shellacking.

  33. Catprog @ #179 Monday, December 10th, 2018 – 5:37 am

    lizzie@8:34 am

    My understanding of the article follows:

    Currently they get paid casual loadings. The court decision means they need to be paid annual leave/sick leave/Long service leave .

    What the government is trying to do is remove the casual loadings in the future

    Why change,

    if the the employer doesn’t want to pay the casual loading then the can always make the employee permanent. 🙂

  34. Good Morning

    Wow the right in Labor are really really scared of the left. They are perfectly willing to overlook that the expulsion of Buckingham is due to sexual assault allegations and that clearly damaging the whole Greens party.

    Instead its all about the “hard” left in NSW being the problem as stated by the woman defending the politician that is damaging the reputation of the Greens. The Greens finally move to do something about the political damage and all the Labor right can do is talk about the “hard” left.

  35. The wise potato knows all.

    Peter Dutton: “I believe that Scott Morrison has many of the attributes of John Howard. I think he has the ability to communicate very effectively. I think he will campaign in a way far more superior than we saw at the last election in 2016.”

  36. Confessions says: Monday, December 10, 2018 at 9:57 am

    phoenixRed:

    I can well imagine Lindsey Graham having skeletons in the closet that could be exploited in exchange for his support for Trump.

    ******************************************************

    There have been some suggestions about his ‘sexual orientation’ ……..

  37. Poroti
    “I suppose it is a bit hard to look dignified and prime ministerial with a beer glass the wrong way up perched on your head.”

    I daresay it would be hard enough even if the glass were the right way up.

  38. Reading Roman Quaedvlieg’s latest tweet, and reflecting on some of his earlier comments, articles etc., I am beginning to wonder whether the reason the misconduct charges against him were laid and he was removed was because he was questioning/challenging some of the approaches being taken by Pezzullo and Dutton to off shored asylum seekers.

    Not saying that the actual charges were fabricated but I do, as I said, find myself wondering about this.
    I’m probably just another conspiracy theorist…

  39. There have been some suggestions about his ‘sexual orientation’ ……..

    Yep, heard those too. Exactly the kind of thing that could be used against him.

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