Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

No Christmas cheer for the Coalition from the final Newspoll for 2018.

The Australian reports Newspoll has closed its 2018 account with another crushing 55-45 lead for Labor, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (up one), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one). Scott Morrison edges to net negative territory on his personal ratings, being down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 45%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 36% and up one to 51%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 44-36, narrowing from 46-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1731.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,921 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. The sheer brilliance of what Robert Mueller just did to Donald Trump – Bill Palmer

    This weekend we’re seeing mainstream political pundits debating whether Donald Trump should be impeached, whether he’s even legitimately the president to begin with, and whether he and his kids will end up in prison. He still has his defenders to be sure, but in politics, half the battle lies in framing the argument to begin with. The crazy part is that we haven’t even seen anything yet.

    Now we’re starting to see how he’s planning to take Trump down: death by a thousand proverbial cuts. This week he exposed just a bit of Trump’s crimes, and got everyone talking about whether it’s enough for Trump to be ousted.

    Tomorrow or next week, even as the national debate about Donald Trump’s ouster rages on, Robert Mueller will expose more of Trump’s crimes, and make it harder for his defenders to continue to defend him. Mueller is just going to keep doing this to Trump until the Democrats take over the House, by which time they’ll hit the ground running with nationally televised public hearings on every one of Trump’s scandals, based on the things Mueller keeps exposing.

    https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/sheer-brilliance-mueller-just-trump/14599/

  3. Jennifer Oriel writing in the SmearStralian sees light at the end of the tunnel for the embattled Scotty… t

    “
    The Liberal Coalition tested its policy prowess and tactical intelligence during the last sitting week of the year. Scott Morrison seized the opportunity to challenge Labor on national security, religious freedom, border protection and counter-terrorism.

    The Prime Minister introduced a new rule to neutralise the most powerful weapon left in Labor’s arsenal, Liberal leadership instability. By the end of the week the promise of a landslide Labor victory in the coming federal election was no longer assured. The Coalition is back in business. The government accrued political capital last week by outman­oeuvring Labor on several fronts. It drew on Liberal philosophy and policy substance to win the battle in the public square. Defeatism has been the prevailing spirit in Liberal Coalition ranks for months. The era of despondency is over. The fight to win the unwinnable election has begun.”

    http://outline.com/DeTgNB

  4. The exodus of Howard’s leftovers should be a deep rumble as many reconsider their future prospects before the decimation of the coalition at the next election. The Nationals will probably become the senior coalition party!
    Abbott and Joyce will need to overcome ‘somewhat disapproving with disbelief’ electorates to be returned and assume their rightful (as they see it) guardianship of all things political (self-righteous hypocrisy).
    So many voters are divorced from the political process and the types that present themselves for approval embed this divorce.
    It is inconceivable to imagine any improvement in the Coalition’s self possessed destruction as a disbelieving public have stated their desire to see positive action in many areas of concern, the least important of those is probably encryption.
    Shorten has his team in the right frame for the finals and will more than likely transform from a gritty opposition leader to become a successful PM. The ALP Conference will be Shorten’s last obstacle.
    The Greens and One Nation are horrified to being compared as similarly unappealing.
    The success or failure of the independents will be viewed as comical interludes as a fill in before the feature attraction.
    The Liberal party have adopted the small minded lightweight persona appealing to a ever diminishing mindset and will be treated as such in the next election.
    March would be preferable to May as the execution moment if one ignores GB’s predicament governing from the city of new stadiums and the birthplace of the ‘nation building’ Rum Rebellion.

  7. ‘Upnorth says:
    Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 10:43 pm

    NSW Greens MP Cate Faehrmann has issued a blistering attack on her party, saying she is “beyond appalled” with many members and fears the Greens have been “infiltrated by extreme left forces”.’

    Indeed.

    These Reds are playing at class warfare at the expense of the environment. It is high time for the Greens to change their name to the Reds Party and for environmentalists to shift back into the Labor Party.

  9. sprocket_ @ #103 Monday, December 10th, 2018 – 7:08 am

    Jennifer Oriel writing in the SmearStralian sees light at the end of the tunnel for the embattled Scotty… t

    “
    The Liberal Coalition tested its policy prowess and tactical intelligence during the last sitting week of the year. Scott Morrison seized the opportunity to challenge Labor on national security, religious freedom, border protection and counter-terrorism.

    The Prime Minister introduced a new rule to neutralise the most powerful weapon left in Labor’s arsenal, Liberal leadership instability. By the end of the week the promise of a landslide Labor victory in the coming federal election was no longer assured. The Coalition is back in business. The government accrued political capital last week by outman­oeuvring Labor on several fronts. It drew on Liberal philosophy and policy substance to win the battle in the public square. Defeatism has been the prevailing spirit in Liberal Coalition ranks for months. The era of despondency is over. The fight to win the unwinnable election has begun.”

    http://outline.com/DeTgNB

    From today’s Oz. A tale of two headlines!

  11. With the Dawn Patrol article about @$$@#$! PPIs , so beloved by Tony Effin’ Blair, there is another link. Never heard of the guy but what an evil prick.
    .
    .
    Meet the Economist Behind the One Percent’s Stealth Takeover of America

    ……………….Nobel laureate James Buchanan is the intellectual linchpin of the Koch-funded attack on democratic institutions, argues Duke historian Nancy MacLean…………… his philosophy is so stark that even young libertarian acolytes are only introduced to it after they have accepted the relatively sunny perspective of Ayn Rand. (Yes, you read that correctly). If Americans really knew what Buchanan thought and promoted, and how destructively his vision is manifesting under their noses, it would dawn on them how close the country is to a transformation most would not even want to imagine, much less accept…………. Buchanan saw society as a cutthroat realm of makers (entrepreneurs) constantly under siege by takers (everybody else) His own language was often more stark, warning the alleged “prey” of “parasites” and “predators” out to fleece them.
    https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/meet-the-economist-behind-the-one-percents-stealth-takeover-of-america

  12. Sprocket
    I’m sure that after reading Oriel’s opinion piece re the renaissance of the Morrison LNP government that the first comment in the comment section of the unfree press is surely……… ‘just kidding’

  13. The Greens, the Church of England of Aus. politics. Normal everywhere except Sydney where the
    ‘Raving Loons’ faction rule the roost.

  14. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Wow, that description of Buchanan’s economic philosophy sounds straight out of Abbott and Hockey’s ‘Lifters and Leaners’ manifesto!

  15. Akubra

    The headline for Oriel’s article is in the running for the 2018 Comical Ali Trophy

    Liberals regain the momentum

    DECEMBER 09, 2018

  16. Greensborough Growler @ #38 Monday, December 10th, 2018 – 7:18 am

    sprocket_ @ #103 Monday, December 10th, 2018 – 7:08 am

    Jennifer Oriel writing in the SmearStralian sees light at the end of the tunnel for the embattled Scotty… t

    “
    The Liberal Coalition tested its policy prowess and tactical intelligence during the last sitting week of the year. Scott Morrison seized the opportunity to challenge Labor on national security, religious freedom, border protection and counter-terrorism.

    The Prime Minister introduced a new rule to neutralise the most powerful weapon left in Labor’s arsenal, Liberal leadership instability. By the end of the week the promise of a landslide Labor victory in the coming federal election was no longer assured. The Coalition is back in business. The government accrued political capital last week by outman­oeuvring Labor on several fronts. It drew on Liberal philosophy and policy substance to win the battle in the public square. Defeatism has been the prevailing spirit in Liberal Coalition ranks for months. The era of despondency is over. The fight to win the unwinnable election has begun.”

    http://outline.com/DeTgNB

    From today’s Oz. A tale of two headlines!

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    That Oriel article sounds like ‘inside the Canberra bubble stuff’. I thought Morrison abhorred that? 🙂

  17. Over the weekend, the federal government continued its campaign of trying to paint Labor as “soft” on border protection, feeding compliant media outlets with allegations that admitting a relatively small number of asylum seekers from Nauru and Manus Island on medical grounds would mean people convicted of murder and rape could enter Australia.

    But in the past four years since the government “stopped the boats”, 64,362 protection visa applications have been made by unvetted individuals who have arrived by plane while Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton were the relevant ministers.

    So Dutton/Morrison have kept our eyes glued to “We stopped the boats” while unvetted individuals have arrived by plane in increased numbers. A typical example of unexpected consequences which should have been forecast. Meanwhile ‘migrants’ have been blamed for congestion on the roads and demands are made to reduce the official numbers.

    “Home Affairs is reducing frontline staff and IT contractors,” (Rizvi) wrote.

    “Outsourcing visa processing will make the problem worse. Tackling the chaos in our visa processing system will cost the taxpayer hundreds of millions of dollars, possibly north of a billion dollars and take many years. Is the government’s border protection mantra a diversion from its real border-protection failings?”

    …“Experienced immigration officers have understood this risk for at least two decades. But the current Home Affairs Department has few experienced immigration officers left, with many having been driven out by the current leadership.

    What a bloody mess. Dutton should be made to face up to his responsibilities and fired.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/12/09/record-number-asylum-seekers-peter-dutton/

  18. Poroti: “The Greens, the Church of England of Aus. politics. Normal everywhere except Sydney where the ‘Raving Loons’ faction rule the roost.”

    With regard to Sydney, I think similar problems can be identified for the Liberals and Labor. Is it the water there, or does it stem from early colonialism / politics in the colony (Macquarie, Wentworth, Bligh, Rum Corps, etc.)?

  21. Morning all

    Buchanan’s economic philosophy is being aided and abetted by
    The Koch brothers, the Mercers, Eric Prince and DeVos family, to names few. They are all instrumental in the current shit shows taking place re Brexit and Trump etc.
    Why do you think the Russian oligarchs and the Saudi oligarchs are so appealing to them?

  23. Morale at Newscorpse must be low indeed if they cannot summon the will to write a Labor leadership story about why Albo will knife Bill soon. Have they lost the will to lie?

  24. That pic of Morrison tipping a beer can (?) on his head…

    Was that to prove that he can ‘party’ as well as anyone? He just looked foolish.

  26. Remember what one of the scandals that Howard faced when he was in office? Dodgy Migration Agents selling access to Australia for profit?

    This Visa system sell-off will only attract exactly the same sort of spivs and shonks after a quick buck or a million.

  27. lizzie
    It is the traditional sign that you have finished your beer in a ‘boat race’ ( relay beer skolling). A wet head being a dead give away that you had not actually finished your beer 😆

  28. Vic,
    I expect one of those filthy rich families to buy a Container Ship or a Cruise Ship and have it fitted out so they can boast about having a bigger boat than the next filthy rich bastard.

  32. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has been proclaiming the Coalition government’s economic credentials this week: an economy growing fast, exports up, household consumption up, 1.1 million jobs created. How are we really faring vis-a-vis the rest of the world? Armed with the latest national accounts, Alan Austin reports the flip side of the coin, how Australia has fallen behind.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/the-big-breather-why-australias-economy-now-ranks-outside-the-top-20/

    Does this mean we will no longer be invited to attend the G20 summit(s)?

  33. The Prime Minister introduced a new rule to neutralise the most powerful weapon left in Labor’s arsenal, Liberal leadership instability. By the end of the week the promise of a landslide Labor victory in the coming federal election was no longer assured. The Coalition is back in business. The government accrued political capital last week by outman­oeuvring Labor on several fronts. It drew on Liberal philosophy and policy substance to win the battle in the public square. Defeatism has been the prevailing spirit in Liberal Coalition ranks for months. The era of despondency is over. The fight to win the unwinnable election has begun.”

    This woman is Baghdad Ali and the black knight all rolled into one. I reckon they must employ her for comedy relief.

  34. Sprocket
    I still think is a relavent comment on Oriel..

    Mike Carlton
    Mike Carlton
    @MikeCarlton01
    Little Jennifer Oriel has gone berserk in The Australian today, a lunatic screeching and tearing her hair in a dark corner of the asylum.
    6:51 AM · Mar 13, 2017 · Twitter for iPad

    Also that stupid people can also obtain PhDs

  35. Another big story in Murdoch’s Oz:

    “EXCLUSIVE
    Unis declare war on free speech
    REBECCA URBAN
    Australian universities are becoming increasingly hostile to free speech, an audit by the Institute of Public Affairs has found.”

  36. Lizzie, I should also mention that a friend of mine, on a prepaid plan, had accidentally signed up to a ‘premium data’ provider. Apparently tricked into it by doing an online survey for a supermarket company. He was using his credit at a great rate.

    Unfortunately, it took a lot to work out what was going on, several trips to their shop, plus a few conversations to the Philipines. No progress to stop the credit disappearing.

    A letter (you know printed printed out and a stamp put on it) finally got action.

    The letter stated pretty clearly, that the person didn’t want the data and to cancel the subscription, he wanted his money back and if they didn’t respond within one week, he would take it up with the telecommunication ombudsman.

    I took 4 days and everything was sorted.

  37. Well there was one valid comment in the Australian article in left wing columnists :
    the public does not much care for Bill Shorten, whose taxation policies appear vulnerable to a scare cam­paign in a falling housing market

    The rest was a complaint about Turnbull, condemning pink Batts, and defending their position.

  38. PeeBee

    I’m not really on a Plan, I just choose the amount I want to pay Telstra (i.e. $30).
    That’s a good warning not to do online surveys. 🙁

  39. I had wondered about this re riots in Paris

    Jakub Janda
    Jakub Janda
    @_JakubJanda
    BREAKING:

    French intelligence is investigating foreign interference in Yellow Vest movement.

  40. Victoria @ #60 Monday, December 10th, 2018 – 7:59 am

    C@t

    Not only about having the most money but consolidating power.
    They are also cray Cray ideologues.

    And they employ people to make real what their black hearts desire.

    Though the impression I get is that they don’t like nouveau arriviste, Donald Trump, and use him simply to get what they want out of the Administration. Like the Tax Cuts they didn’t really need and the SCOTUS appointments to wind back abortion rights.

  41. And this man was the “freedom commissioner”?

    @abcnews
    11h11 hours ago

    Victorian Liberal @TimWilsonMP tells @PatsKarvelas that passing the Nauru evacuation bill will create “incentives” for refugees to self-harm as a “justification to be able to get into Australia” because “the test was people’s health and health assessment”. #NationalWrap #auspol

  43. What surprises me is how many people I would not expect are now talking climate change. I think there is genuine fear out there. People realise they are about to get the bill. Unbelievable the libs don’t even have a climate change policy. That itself is an electoral killer.

  45. C@t

    For eg. The Mercers funded Brebairt news.
    They are despicable.

    No doubt Putin would be wholeheartedly doing what he could for this outcome.

  46. lizzie

    😆 I suppose it is a bit hard to look dignified and prime ministerial with a beer glass the wrong way up perched on your head.

  47. antonBruckner11

    Here in Melbourne we are experiencing random overnight temps of mid to late twenties during early spring. Not normal.
    How can people not notice these dramatic changes

  49. The Russian ambassador. A deputy prime minister. A pop star, a weightlifter, a lawyer, a Soviet army veteran with alleged intelligence ties.

    Again and again and again, over the course of Donald Trump’s 18-month campaign for the presidency, Russian citizens made contact with his closest family and friends, as well as figures on the periphery of his orbit.

    Some offered to help his campaign and his real estate business. Some offered dirt on his Democratic opponent. Repeatedly, Russian nationals suggested Trump should hold a peacemaking sit-down with Vladi­mir Putin — and offered to broker such a summit.

    In all, Russians interacted with at least 14 Trump associates during the campaign and presidential transition, public records and interviews show.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/russians-interacted-with-at-least-14-trump-associates-during-the-campaign-and-transition/2018/12/09/71773192-fb13-11e8-8c9a-860ce2a8148f_story.html?utm_term=.c392cc3fe845

  50. Offsets: the developer’s dream.

    Tasmanian forest considered important for the survival of the critically endangered swift parrot may be bulldozed to build a dam for a fish farm and golf course development.
    …
    The dam would provide fresh water to a salmon farm in Okehampton Bay, a planned golf course and housing development and for local towns in the event of drought or climate change-related shortages. Advice to the council from Birdlife Tasmania says all remaining parrot habitat is critical for the species’ survival and must be protected.
    …
    But under national environmental law the council could “offset” the lost parrot breeding habitat by striking a deal with a nearby landholder to protect a larger area of existing habitat. It is considered an offset despite it involving a loss in the total amount of parrot breeding area.
    …
    Though it is yet to be approved, the dam project received a $2.3m grant from the federal government before the Tasmanian election earlier this year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/10/swift-parrot-habitat-threat-dam-fish-farm-golf-course?CMP=share_btn_tw

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