The BludgerTrack poll aggregate shifts negligibly in favour of the Coalition, who have picked up one on the seat aggregate in South Australia. I won’t be bothering with the leadership ratings until the new year recess, as some fairly heavy reupholstering is required to integrate Scott Morrison’s data into the code.
Two ReachTEL electorate polls have lately emerged from Victoria, recording swings approaching or exceeding double digits against the Liberals – with the caveat that both appear to have identified the names of the parties rather than the candidates.
• In Corangamite, held for the Liberals by Sarah Henderson on a post-redistribution margin of exactly nothing, a poll for the Geelong Advertiser gives Labor what I calculate to be a lead of 59-41, based on 2016 election preferences. The Advertiser’s report has it at 52.1-47.9, but this credits Labor with no preferences whatsoever from “other/independent”, when they in fact scored slightly over half of them in 2016. After excluding the 4.6% undecided from the poll, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. I don’t know exactly when the poll was conducted, but the sample was 856.
• The Herald Sun reported last week that a poll for the CFMEU found Kelly O’Dwyer, who holds Higgins on a post-redistribution margin of 10.3%, trailing Labor by 53-47. Primary votes of Liberal 38.6%, Labor 32.5% and Greens 18.8% are provided, which I presume does not exclude an undecided component.
Cud Chewer @ #2024 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 7:59 pm
Just wrong, I’m afraid. Even Apple has failed on occasion to detect malware in their devices.
If required, you could download the same update to every phone, but still have it targeted at a “particular person” (which is essentially what the TCN requires).
Good. At least you now accept the capability. Now all you have to do is use your imagination as to how it might be used. I can imagine several quite useful scenarios that do not require the spyware to “phone home”.
Simply nonsense. Do you think our intelligence agencies are manned by morons? Very few developers will ever receive a TCN, and those that do will be those who, if they receive one, will do their damnedest to make sure this fact is never, ever discovered.
sprocket_ @ #2102 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 5:23 pm
Oh that is SO funny! The Ad Man airbrushed out of his own ads.
poroti
Prodi has zip standing.
Look at it from the point of view of the EU.
They negotiate in good faith for 18 months.
They make all sorts of compromises by all sorts of governments across the continent.
Then Corbyn comes along and says, ‘We want to start negotiating again… at where the May negotiations finished.’
Then, in two more years, Corbyn’s replacement comes along and says,
‘We want to start negotiations again… but at where the Corbyn negotiations finished.’
Despite 18 months of clear evidence the Crazy Right and the Crazy Left Brits have still to grasp the essential point here: they need the EU much, much, much more than the EU needs them.
Nobody I know has said boo about it. The issue hasn’t turned up on my Facebook feed at all.
The only folks chattering about it are PBers, press gallery journos, political hacks on twitter, and Canberra bubble types.
don says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 8:26 pm
It is now officially summer on the Northern Tablelands.
The koels have arrived, and this evening the cicadas have started up for the first time.
It is dry as, the grass has hayed off, and mowing is a matter of knocking over the weeds as they raise their heads, rather than cutting grass.
#seasonsonPB
———————————————
Was Upnorth over the last few days to visit the ancestoral home and aged Parents. Indeed summer has arrived. An early season Low has made rain after a dry winter. The wet season. Even the Storm Birds call.
In the trees the rainbow lorikeets eat the ripe mangoes half peeled the night before from flying foxes. On the ground some venture. Eating over ripe fruit. Getting drunk on the brewed mango nectar. At night a Curlew with its call. If it calls during the day it means death. Everywhere Pee Wees and Magpies. On harvested cane fields dad and I spot Magpie Geese and some Bush Turkeys and Brolgas.
In the creek we catch two big buck mud crabs. Nearby the Jabiru fishes for its lunch.
Sure there are mosquitoes and sandflies. But it’s the smells. The sounds. The feeling of my youth. Memories flooding back.
Home again. To help mow the lawn. I know they will be backyard cricket on Christmas Day. I’m a bit jealous. But I have my own responsibilities now. Away from a beautiful and lovely Australia to the hustle and bustle of expat life.
But before I go. One last treat. In the Foxtail Palm tree. A loud coo. Powerful. Another proud Australian. A Torres Strait Pigeon.
When I was young. A raritiy. Now. Many. Making a strong comeback.
I say goodbye to mum and dad. Ring Christmas Day!! They taught me Labor Values. And stay proud and true to their convictions as do I.
Most major environmental campaigns and significant changes in policy have been hard fought, literally at times in the ground, in the trees, on tripods, in boats, in the streets and halls of Australia
Neither of the major parties have done anything much without first having significant publicly supported campaigns demanding action and then realising that actually a lot of people give a shit. Also the science was right, destroying the environment and trashing it is a stupid idea and an even stupider practice.
The claim a NSW Lab windbag did more for the environment than anyone else in the history of environmental action in Australia. Good one
Tony Burke believes that a 2000 year old Jewish carpenter was the Son of God. Kind of undermines all of his other opinions.
C
Had afternoon tea with six knowledge economy folk this afternoon.
These are articulate, politically-aware, and switched on peeps.
Not one raised encryption.
poroti
You are right of course. It would be difficult to get all 27 countries to agree but its not impossible it could happen.
Saying the EU is open to the UK wanting to move closer to the EU is not to say negotiations would succeed in the timetable. Thats why I think it would only happen to extend Article 50 for a second referendum. Otherwise I think the EU will go with the deal they have.
Also, Tony Burke got into Parliament on the back of the SDA. So clearly he had no problem with their rorting of workers for cosy deals with the supermarket duopoly.
Boerwar
Prodi is not just Joe Blow standing on a street corner. He’d still be in touch with what is going on. The EU may even have used him to pass on the ‘message’ that they can not openly say.
Ah the Greens. Always play the man. Never the ball.
bc
That is now my under-standing also
frednk
Then you have not read the Verge article. It specifies everything. Its not an Australian political site but a US tech news site.
Try reading it.
Quoll
There is no need for you to be utterly obtuse, even if you are a Greens.
The historical reality is that Richo, with his votes for environmental outcomes deals, delivered far more for the environment than all the Reds and Greens in the Greens Party put together over the past 30 years.
The Greens stroke themselves with such fatuous bullshit items as ‘advocacy’.
Advocacy means dip shit.
As does sitting up trees.
As does waving placards.
What changes real things is legislation and regulation and funding.
Richo delivered this for 900,000 hectares of the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area.
He delivered.
You guys fail to deliver.
Fail.To.Deliver.
Does it really matter if a faded former imperial power leaves the EU ? I’m sure the Europeans will be able to carry on perfectly well without them. Or is there a theory that the Poms are indispensable, the Europeans not up to running things without ‘Anglo Saxon’ influence ?
When believers Tony Burke and Steve Fielding took on Richard Dawkins on Q&A in 2010 and made fools of themselves:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrII1vnNF6w
Boerwar:
That doesn’t surprise me. It’s a political tragics issue, not a mainstream issue.
Btw I wholeheartedly agree with your statements about Labor’s environmental record. There is only one political party that has a demonstrated track record of achieving environmental wins in this country, and it is the ALP.
Quell
In BW’s world there was no Franklin Dam protest. No Wilderness society. No stop Adani movement. No Getup or Australian Conservation Foundation.
Boerwar @ #2047 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 8:32 pm
Twitchers are selfless, wonderful people in my experience.
All they want is to increase their number of species ticks, and increase the number of species and numbers in general, so others can increase their totals too.
Did you hear about the reintroduction of the Mallee Emu-wren by twitchers into an area in South Australia they had been burnt out of? Well established now, and they have a breeding program in Victoria, the only other habitat, and will add more as candidates become available.
I found out the other day that people in cities and suburbs can’t have their own ponds, because of ‘danger’ and they have to put swimming pool fences around them – since we are in the sticks, we have three ponds, plus a dam – which help birds cope with lack of water, obviously. And many thousands of native plants on our three hectare place. More added all the time.
Our local pair of wood ducks showed up a few days ago with a dozen chicks. Does your heart good. The chicks seem to be able to swim from day one, far as I can work out.
‘poroti says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 8:49 pm
Boerwar
Prodi is not just Joe Blow standing on a street corner. He’d still be in touch with what is going on. The EU may even have used him to pass on the ‘message’ that they can not openly say.’
Your point may be true.
What IS true is that the EU – the official representatives of 600,000,000 people and 27 governments are saying, ‘No!’
Don
Nice story. Had heard of the Mallee-wren story. Great stuff.
Thanks.
Newspoll on Sky News. PML. In a few mins.
guytaur
says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 8:55 pm
Quell
In BW’s world there was no Franklin Dam protest. No Wilderness society. No stop Adani movement. No Getup or Australian Conservation Foundation.
__________________________________
If it was up to BW the Kakadu would be a giant uranium mine.
Chris Kenny says if your looking for a big story from Newspoll it’s a bit like waiting for Godot. Not much movement in the polls.
So there is a Newspoll? Colour me surprised, I thought they’d hold off until next weekend.
no change in newspoll apparently
nath, is there any chameleons in Australia?
G
It is governments that enact legislation, set up regulations, fund management outcomes.
Governments.
Richo could deliver, together with the ACF and the Wilderness Society, because he could cut a deal with them.
The deal would be something like the Wet Tropics World Heritage legislation, management arrangements and massive funding outcomes in exchange for campaign support for Labor during elections by the ACF and the Wilderness Society.
The ACF and the Wilderness Society do NOT have this power any more because they cannot deliver environmental voters.
The latter have been locked away in the Greens Party.
So, if there is not much movement in 55-45 to Labor in Newspoll, then Scomo’s two weeks in parliament has been fruitless.
Oh well. My Newspoll prediction is fukt.
Olympic Dam Mine represents something like 5% of the South Australian economy.
Shutting it down would cost around 10,000 jobs.
It would require massive compensation payments.
It would ensure that private capital would flee.
And it would increase the price of the only global fuel that does not deliver massive CO2 emissions.
Brilliant Reds policy.
Sprocket
Thats bad for Labor. They should have made a gain in my view due to chaos in government.
Maybe the encryption legislation let the LNP paint Labor as almost as bad so their voters had more time to hang on. Of course it means they are still doomed of course. 🙂 If the trend continues.
_____________________________
Tim Wilson not doing well on National Wrap in my view.
Sorry not a few mins for Newspoll. Paul Murray drawing it out…
‘guytaur says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 9:07 pm
Sprocket
Thats bad for Labor. They should have made a gain in my view due to chaos in government. ‘
Classic Greens shite.
BW
You just finished telling us there were no Greens parties in Australia.
Who is it that talked to your great hero Richo and got him to go for the environment. He even managed to do it with Mark Latham too to John Howard’s delight as the unions backed him not Latham.
Who was it? Some unnamed leader of a political party?
Lol no real change in Newspoll
P1, you said earlier there is no point in the Greens criticising Coalition policy, because they would have zero influence over them and they know it (or wtte).
Influencing the behaviour of the person or group you are criticising is not the only purpose you can achieve in doing so. You could also influence the attitudes of third parties towards the target of your criticism.
In the realm of politics, if the Greens devote 90% of their time to criticising Labor and only 10% to criticising the Coalition, third parties (voters) will receive 9 times as much negative framing of Labor from the Greens as they receive of the Coalition. This is more likely to result in worsening public views of Labor than of the Coalition.
On an issue such as the aa bill, this is quite unfair on Labor, since this law was crafted and enthusiastically pushed through Parliament by the Coalition, who are the real villains here. OTOH, Labor were put under political duress to pass it, on pain of receiving 2001 rhetorical treatment in the event of anything going tragically wrong over the summer, whether caused by the lack of this law or (more likely) not.
‘guytaur says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 9:09 pm
BW
You just finished telling us there were no Greens parties in Australia.’
Don’t make shit up.
BW
No I leave the making shit up to your expertise.
Last day afar … hopping on a flight later today UK time.
One thing very noticeable, the warriors (of various persuasions), and the trolls, are are obviously bored because they spend so much time arguing about nothing or semantics or “my interpretation is better than your interpretation” and once they stake a particular claim are very reluctant to give ground even in the face of their own misinformed-ness.
Nath appears to be getting especially desperate if the quality of his tweet-based image posts and snarky commentary are any indication.
It’s been eye-opening to view the blog from afar – the extremism, snarkiness and wowserism becomes quite comical when you’re viewing and not participating.
I now get why people lurk for years … can be quite entertaining.
‘guytaur says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 9:09 pm
BW
You just finished telling us there were no Greens parties in Australia.’
Don’t make shit up.’
I did not say that. Why would I? It is not true.
So you are 100% lying. Based on past experience you will now spend around 20 posts of additional bullshit, flying kites, pointing at unicorns and the like, trying to convince yourself that you did not lie.
You belong in the Greens.
J
It beats watching the Aussies bat. Just.
LOL!!!
BW
Oh sorry I thought your memory was good enough that I did not have to give the full quote.
Of course you ignore who I was talking about. Doesn’t go with your propaganda does it.
confessions
Ah you got it 🙂
Jen:
You don’t have to be on the other side of the world to view the comments the last few days with heightened amusement. 🙂
‘guytaur says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 9:09 pm
BW
You just finished telling us there were no Greens parties in Australia.’
Don’t make shit up
BW
It was what you posted. You did put a time. You were talking about the Hawke Government when it got into power.
Guytaur, ‘thought your memory was good enough that I did not have to give the full quote.’
Well, just to prove who is making shot up or not, why don’t you provide the quote.
Failing to do so, would indicate you do make shit up.