The BludgerTrack poll aggregate shifts negligibly in favour of the Coalition, who have picked up one on the seat aggregate in South Australia. I won’t be bothering with the leadership ratings until the new year recess, as some fairly heavy reupholstering is required to integrate Scott Morrison’s data into the code.
Two ReachTEL electorate polls have lately emerged from Victoria, recording swings approaching or exceeding double digits against the Liberals – with the caveat that both appear to have identified the names of the parties rather than the candidates.
• In Corangamite, held for the Liberals by Sarah Henderson on a post-redistribution margin of exactly nothing, a poll for the Geelong Advertiser gives Labor what I calculate to be a lead of 59-41, based on 2016 election preferences. The Advertiser’s report has it at 52.1-47.9, but this credits Labor with no preferences whatsoever from “other/independent”, when they in fact scored slightly over half of them in 2016. After excluding the 4.6% undecided from the poll, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. I don’t know exactly when the poll was conducted, but the sample was 856.
• The Herald Sun reported last week that a poll for the CFMEU found Kelly O’Dwyer, who holds Higgins on a post-redistribution margin of 10.3%, trailing Labor by 53-47. Primary votes of Liberal 38.6%, Labor 32.5% and Greens 18.8% are provided, which I presume does not exclude an undecided component.
BW
Of course you have to smear instead of doing reasonable debate and take the point the Wilderness society existed. The Franklin Dam protests were happening etc etc.
Nope not in your world its all hero Richo.
Someone confirm?
Jimmy
@christo62490465
·
46m
#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 44 (-1) ALP 56 (+1) #auspol
‘guytaur says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 9:09 pm
BW
You just finished telling us there were no Greens parties in Australia.’
Don’t make shit up.
zodi
I think that is a FakeNews tweet
PeeBee
Ah yes the whole gang up now.
All of this because I dared to say Labor was wrong on a political strategy on one piece of legislation. Suddenly the Labor partisans are in attack mode. Can’t have a differing view being presented might be catching.
Looks dodgy Zoidlord.
Probably @sprocket
the real news is that there is a surge in Greens support on the back of their principled stand on encryption
Guytaur, not ganging up. You made a statement that someone said they didn’t make.
Simples, produce the quote and your integrity is restored.
The Greens here on this blog are truly delusional.
Such arrogant haters!
Reading their tripe just makes one shake their head in amazement.
If these characters are typical of Greens I understand why there is a swelling movement in the ALP membership for no deals with them.
How could one deal with such people,ever.
Let’s see if Scott can out bribe Howard with his mega Plasma screen tax cut that made millions for the little Ozzy battler… Gerry Harvey.
Scott May have to up the anti to the price of a small car this time
BW
Sorry I did not see your edit adding the last sentence.
My apologies. Peebee was right to tell me to go back and look again.
PeeBee
BW did well in winding me up.
At least I did take your advice and review.
Choked on this ..
Long-time Liberal Party operative Grahame Morris said the March strategy did not make much sense.
“Bouncing off a good budget is an improvement on where they are now,” he said. “The government can’t really go to an earlier election unless the polls are something like 51-49, and we are a lot of cricket pitches short of that,” he said.
When was the last time the Liberals even had a dead cat bounce following a budget delivery..
55/45 confirmed
The tech community tends to be centred in the San Francisco Bay area. This was the home of the US counter culture in the 60’s and 70’s. That culture tended to have a deep distrust for “the man”. i.e. the government. Many in the tech community inherited that attitude to government. As a consequence there tends to be substantial push back against perceived government encroachment on civil liberties and privacy.
#BREAKING: The Coalition has ended the year in a poll slump to trail Labor on a two-party preferred vote of 55/45 for the third consecutive #Newspoll theaustralian.com.au/national-affai…
guytaur @ #2086 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 9:09 pm
It was actually my cousin by marriage, Phillip Toyne, who founded the Australian Conservation Foundation with his mate, Peter Garrett. A Labor man, through and through. As a lawyer he helped with the drafting of the legislation. Bob Brown was like a front man. He knows how to draw attention to issues. He’s a politician and an activist. Just don’t kid yourself that you know what you’re talking about here. You can’t buy a clue quite frankly.
Hear hear!
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
19s20 seconds ago
More
#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 45 (0) ALP 55 (0) #auspol
Thanks Sprocket
Not looking good for the LNP.
Sceptic.
Ah yes the fabled budget dead cat bounce. How many times have we heard that 😆
The PB median does it again 🙂
Boerwar @ #2020 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 4:55 pm
3,000 jobs at Olympic Dam actually.
Thanks sprocket.
Dammit, I missed out on bragging rights, coming off a near perfect record of Newspoll predictions. 😆
sprocket_ @ #2108 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 9:25 pm
😆
Cat
Well you could be right. Richo did admit to lying in his book.
Greens steady on 9
No movement in the Green vote despite all the hysteria the last few days.
PBers nearly always right on Newspoll(median)
ALP 41
LNP 35
GRN 9
PHON 7
a r @ #2119 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 9:32 pm
Coalition support evaporating like a puddle in the Climate Change-affected summer sun in Australia. 🙂
Upnorth @ #2026 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 5:01 pm
That would’ve been in 1917 then. A long way from what life in general, and the Labor Party is in 2018.
LNP polling will impove if they can stay out of the news for the next 2 months.
PV 41% for Labor is a great number for them.
C@tmomma
says:
It was actually my cousin by marriage, Phillip Toyne, who founded the Australian Conservation Foundation
_____________________________
Whether it be punk rock or the ACF you will find that at the centre of Australian history you will find C@tmomma there. Kind of like our own Forrest Gump.
Roger Miller @ #2134 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 9:36 pm
Maybe if they stay out of the way until May. 😉
Wayne Swan doing very well. Of course he could not fail to do so. The only downer’s for him are are you in touch with your members question Karvelas put. Batted away very quickly and effectively.
Looks like Scott called the election on the back of a dead cat Newspoll bounce.
They are cactus !
Wayne Swan, I can assure you, tirelessly travels the country speaking to Labor Party members as our National President.
They’ll need to install a new leader if they have chance lol
It also looks like calling Bill Shorten a threat to the security of the nation backfired like a clapped out VW Kombi. 🙂
Cat
I can believe that I have seen his twitter stream. 🙂
I think Labor got the politics on one piece of legislation wrong. I don’t think the whole party suddenly lost touch with the voters completely let alone its members.
Roger Miller @ #2134 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 6:36 pm
Yes, their polling always seems to revive when parliament isn’t sitting. The festive season when people are switched off even further should be beneficial for them.
Let’s hope they go to a March election off the back of a polling improvement over the holiday period. 🙂
Nath… still stalking?
Give it a rest
Well said C@t
Pauline Hanson and Greens almost even on Primaries. Might be even come Election Day.
Sceptic
says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 9:43 pm
Nath… still stalking?
Give it a rest
__________________
Oh yes I forgot! the stalking claim. I’m so used to arguing with C@t I forgot that it could be used against me!
55.45 🙂
55-45 is becoming the norm for Newspoll.How the fuck can the Libs win from here?They are not sitting in parliament until next year.People are not going to change their vote in January or February as no legislation can pass the parliament anyway and the punters sure dont give a fuck over Xmas and New Year.
Im calling it already.