BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

A devastating Newspoll strips the Coalition of almost all of its poll trend gains from two improved results last week.

In the week that brought them the Victorian election result, Newspoll has taken from the Coalition what Ipsos and Essential Research gave the week before in BludgerTrack, with Labor up 0.6% on two-party preferred and making seat projection gains in Victoria and South Australia. I’m afraid I’ve been too preoccupied/lazy to update the leadership trends, but Newspoll is unlikely to have changed them much. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

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  1. CC

    Yet Melbourne people still use trams and some have a big preference for them over buses.
    Even slower their efficiency has appeal. Melbourne has efficiency pricing system where trams are good for short trips to deal with the fact its a legacy network.

  2. nath says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 12:19 pm
    why do I instantly dislike someone when they are described as a ‘powerbroker’?

    I think you’re a powerbroker Nath. I really do imagine you with that dolphin loving Greenie chick! Eating Gummy Shark and Greek salad….

  3. Amy’s blog

    It’s been reported in The Australian and Fairfax, and it is what we were told is one of the options – the state executive members who could have upset the peace deal to ensure Craig Kelly (and every other sitting NSW MP) will abstain.

    So, Kelly is saved.

    My take then is that the state executive members are either cowed or they don’t care or they simply don’t know. It’s their job to know and care. I expect they do. So I can only conclude they are cowed. Shouldn’t they now resign? They clearly can’t be relied on to do their job.

  4. No I don’t agree with you p1 because you are intellectually dishonest.

    The inner west light rail line is slow. Its not a white elephant. It does need fixing.
    The eastern suburbs light rail line has been poorly executed. It will however work well.
    And you’ve got no fucking clue about buses.

  5. Dutton is rorting the pairs system. Labor should not pair unless he can show good cause why an arm injury needs two weeks off work.

  6. They may be slower but given the choice I take trams because of the emotional satisfaction it gives me. If you get a seat you can read the paper on a tram, or a book. On the buses there is too much jolting around to be able to do that. In Melbourne, we just need to decrease the number of stops and it will be a great service.

  7. PlayerOne
    And cheaper. And more convenient. And more accessible. And service more areas. And faster to deploy. And more responsive to changes in demand and demographics.

    Isn’t this what public transport is supposed to be all about?

    By that logic, we should rip up all heavy rail and replace trains with buses.

  8. PVO

    Turnbull went on morning radio suggesting the PM should go to the polls early, ahead of the NSW state election, to save the state Coalition government. The theory being voters can take out their angst on the federals first rather than do so on both state and federal Coalition governments.

    Such a move probably would save the NSW Liberal government, but it won’t happen. Convincing Morrison to make such a move would be akin to convincing a turkey to vote for an early Thanksgiving.

  9. In Melbourne you can always tell an interstate visitor who has never ridden on a tram before. They stare around and have the look as if they are riding a unicorn or a mammoth.

  10. nath

    Yes which is why saying buses are faster is an idiot argument when talking about light rail which as P1 seems to have forgot includes trams.

  11. JimmyD @ #2663 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 12:26 pm

    PlayerOne
    And cheaper. And more convenient. And more accessible. And service more areas. And faster to deploy. And more responsive to changes in demand and demographics.

    Isn’t this what public transport is supposed to be all about?

    By that logic, we should rip up all heavy rail and replace trains with buses.

    No, heavy rail is faster and has higher capacity, which is why it is competitive even though it has other disadvantages.

    Light rail has none of the advantages of heavy rail, but nearly all of the disadvantages.

  12. Be interesting to see if the “moderate” Libs now just give up and run dead at the Federal Election. Let the RW nutters have their way for now and see what they have left to rebuild with after the election. Also, try not to spend too much in the way of scarce funds on the campaign. 🙂

    The problem is the RW nutters holding safe seats. But, if things are bad enough that those “safe” seats are actually in play (like Victoria) then maybe there is hope they will rebuild into a credible opposition in a couple of terms.

    The whole “hung parliament”, tight numbers in the HoR gives the fringe elements way too much influence.

  13. Melbourne has trams and trains in the inner and middle suburbs. Trains and buses in middle/outer suburbs. It works fine. Outer suburbs there is more distance, so if buses are faster then that fits. In the inner/middle suburbs, often people take trams for a small journey, so speed is not really as important.

  14. I went to Melbourne once. Was cold and miserable. A friend said lets go to the football, peaked my interest for a while, but there was no tackling and they kept kicking the ball like soccer. Finally we went for fish and chips – I passed when I was told it was shark. Best thing about Melbourne was getting on the plane to head Upnorth.

  15. Cud Chewer @ #2670 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 12:33 pm

    Better take that one up with CC

    P1 is both an idiot and engages in intellectual dishonesty like this.

    Oh really? Here is your comment on trams:

    Melbourne trams are horribly slow and inefficient – usually they are sharing a lane with regular traffic.

    I’ll leave it to you and guytaur to argue over whether trams are light rail or not.

    I have a bus to catch! 🙂

  16. Scott Morrison, has personally contacted moderates on the NSW Liberal party state executive and they have agreeed (sic) to abstain from a vote

    Openly cowed.

  17. In Melbourne, due to the climate, a man is allowed to assemble a complete wardrobe. To own and use jackets and overcoats and fully button their shirts.

    Most of the rest of the country get around in shorts and T-shirts for the most part. Like a nation of 10 year old’s on school holiday.

  18. Jimmy

    About the inner west light rail line, its a bunch of small things.
    They designed a single track terminus at Dulwich Hill which limits the rate or turn backs and thus frequency. That can be fixed.
    They stuff up on having shorter vehicles than needed because the consultants who were hired to estimate patronage are idiots. That can be fixed with longer vehicles.
    As for speed. Part of this is over-conservatism. Part of this is just simple things like fencing. Its sitting on what is mostly a dedicated right of way. It should go faster. There’s also the issue of priority over traffic as it gets to the CBD.

  19. nath says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 12:37 pm
    In Melbourne, due to the climate, a man is allowed to assemble a complete wardrobe. To own and use jackets and overcoats and fully button their shirts.

    Most of the rest of the country get around in shorts and T-shirts for the most part. Like a nation of 10 year old’s on school holiday.

    Hey I resemble that comment – you forgot my thongs.

  20. Stephen Spencer
    Stephen Spencer
    @sspencer_63
    ·
    3m
    Morrison won’t protect Jane Prentice and Ann Sudmalis because of “democracy” but intervenes to save Craig Kelly. The Liberals are now a party where women can only be pre-selected on merit, but there are quotas for political clowns.

  21. Melbourne has a nice summer and a nice winter. What could be better. We actually have 4 seasons. Not like one interminable summer that lasts decades.

  22. Zoidlord @ #2686 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 11:42 am

    Stephen Spencer
    Stephen Spencer
    @sspencer_63
    ·
    3m
    Morrison won’t protect Jane Prentice and Ann Sudmalis because of “democracy” but intervenes to save Craig Kelly. The Liberals are now a party where women can only be pre-selected on merit, but there are quotas for political clowns.

    I’d love it if Prentice ran as an independent.

  23. Cud Chewer
    says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 12:41 pm
    I froze my tits off in Melbourne
    Nice city. Wrong location.
    ______________________
    Speaking of tits. One of the benefits of winter in Melbourne. Shacking up with a busty girl to keep you warm. 🙂

  24. nath says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 12:44 pm
    Melbourne has a nice summer and a nice winter. What could be better. We actually have 4 seasons. Not like one interminable summer that lasts decades.

    Upnorth we are well prepared for Global Warming – plenty of XXXX and comfortable dress. Nath you can borrow a pair of my stubbies when the time comes.

  25. PlayerOne
    No, heavy rail is faster and has higher capacity, which is why it is competitive even though it has other disadvantages.

    That’s true, but that doesn’t fit into your original set of criteria which you said was what public transport was all about:

    And cheaper. And more convenient. And more accessible. And service more areas. And faster to deploy. And more responsive to changes in demand and demographics.

    Isn’t this what public transport is supposed to be all about?

    You argued that public transport was all about a certain set of criteria that you reckon light rail fails to satisfy. But now that its been pointed out to you that you inadvertently snared heavy rail in your argument, you’ve suddenly shifted the goalposts to avoid having to admit you were wrong.

    It’s so completely beyond your ability to acknowledge that maybe, just maybe, public transport is a vastly complex subject matter with a similarly vast array of objectives, and that some of those objectives may very well be best met by light rail.

    So once again, you’ve demonstrated the fundamental intellectual dishonesty that underpins all your arguments.

  26. Upnorth @ #2672 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 12:34 pm

    I went to Melbourne once. Was cold and miserable. A friend said lets go to the football, peaked my interest for a while, but there was no tackling and they kept kicking the ball like soccer. Finally we went for fish and chips – I passed when I was told it was shark. Best thing about Melbourne was getting on the plane to head Upnorth.

    You have Hanson, we don’t – we win.

  27. Cud Chewer
    says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 12:49 pm
    nath has 3 dogs and a big imagination
    __________________________
    Does shacking up with a girl seem beyond your imagination? Maybe so. You probably bore them to death talking about the NBN.

    For an easy going handsome bastard like myself it’s been relatively easy. 🙂

  28. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 12:51 pm
    Upnorth @ #2672 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 12:34 pm

    I went to Melbourne once. Was cold and miserable. A friend said lets go to the football, peaked my interest for a while, but there was no tackling and they kept kicking the ball like soccer. Finally we went for fish and chips – I passed when I was told it was shark. Best thing about Melbourne was getting on the plane to head Upnorth.

    You have Hanson, we don’t – we win.

    Rex – you got the Black Wiggle – let’s swap.

  29. rasak

    Ink Hughes in the Labor column.
    ____________________________

    More likely in the cross-bench column if someone with a high enough profile is prepared to stand. Plenty of people in the electorate may despise Kelly, but would still prefer him over anyone with a Labor badge.

  30. As to the benefits of light rail, I can only speak to my own experience (and hopes) living in Newcastle.

    Buses have comprehensively failed this city. Something like 90 to 95% of all trips are made by car.

    The car killed the city centre, and the city’s burgeoning recovery is being threatened by growing traffic and lack of parking.

    There is a no chance a city the size of Newcastle can sustain a properly functioning heavy rail transport network for trips within the city, and the buses are a joke.

    In my view, a light rail network that extends along major transport corridors into the suburbs, and supported by buses, is Newcastle’s best and only hope for getting away from the car and sustaining the city’s renaissance.

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