BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

A devastating Newspoll strips the Coalition of almost all of its poll trend gains from two improved results last week.

In the week that brought them the Victorian election result, Newspoll has taken from the Coalition what Ipsos and Essential Research gave the week before in BludgerTrack, with Labor up 0.6% on two-party preferred and making seat projection gains in Victoria and South Australia. I’m afraid I’ve been too preoccupied/lazy to update the leadership trends, but Newspoll is unlikely to have changed them much. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 67
1 2 67
  1. All forgiven WB. Trend is for Labor and very little the Tories can do to stem the tide.

    Smell of death hangs over them.

    But Shorten needs to stay hungry. Capture every vote. Seats like Higgins and Ryan might just be in the firing line.

    Night all.

  2. No one knows as much about punk music as I do because I was there as it was being created! From the get go in Australia. In the room. With the bands. Listening to the rehearsals. Going to the first gig. Going to every gig. Going to other bands gigs. Sharing a house with the band. Going to other band members’ houses. Though not being a groupie. Just an old, old friend. 🙂

  3. C@tmomma



    Get even and get every vote possible!!

    I still remember the looks on the Tories faces in 1993 when they lost the unlovable election. As Keating said it was a “victory for the true believers. The people who in difficult times kept the faith”. I never want one of those Tory losing faces.

    Labor must approach this as the underdogs. Nothing for granted.

  4. Cat@momma
    What a life! I think I was there at the beginning of an era as well – Al Bowly, Harry Lauder et al. And slightly later, the Mills Brothers.
    They don’t make em like than anymore.

  5. A raft of other proposals to improve the Senate are also on the table, including a plan by Centre Alliance senator Rex Patrick to limit the number of motions each senator can propose over a week.

    Parliamentary Library research shows Senator Bernardi, Senator Hanson, Fraser Anning, and Greens leader Richard Di Natale would need to markedly reduce the number of motions they move to keep below the proposed threshold.

    “I look forward to motion time like I look forward to root canal,” Senator Patrick said. “The Senate has lot of important business to do and it’s not being done…that work is being inhibited by the current sham that motion time has become.”

    Ah, so this is why Pegasus keeps rushing back to PB breathlessly letting us know about Greens’ motions in the Senate? They’re just stunts to get headlines but not substantive?

  6. It does appear that, during 2018, the trend shows Malcolm was turning the electorate towards him.
    Possibly due to actually creating an energy policy with an emissions target, bearing in mind that correlation is not causation, of course.
    Then the party RW blew it up, and with it the trend.
    Tim Wilson is reported saying he listened to voters on polling day in Victoria, and they were saying they are worried about the environment.
    The thinkers in the party room must be despairing. No wonder there is talk of a split.

  7. GOP’s Rick Wilson says Trump knows he’s cooked: ‘Playtime is over and Donald doesn’t like it’

    Anti-Trump Republican strategist Rick Wilson believes that President Donald Trump knows he’s about to get absolutely crushed by special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe — and his frantic tweets attacking Mueller are the only weapon he has left in his arsenal.

    Writing in the Daily Beast, Wilson explains how the House GOP for two years has helped Trump dodge accountability, all while attacking the FBI for investigating whether the president’s campaign worked with Russian agents to defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016.

    PLUS Ricks Daily Beast article :

    Sensing Defeat, Trump Cries ‘Witch Hunt’

    A princeling who’s literally lived in a golden tower for most of his adult life is not good with stress. And there’s a lot of stress on him now, and much more coming.

  8. Trump answered Mueller’s questions about infamous Trump Tower meeting — and we could know soon if he’s lying

    A new report from CNN claims that President Donald Trump told special counsel Robert Mueller this month that he was never informed about the infamous 2016 Trump Tower meeting with Russian agents, while also claiming that ally Roger Stone never talked with him about upcoming WikiLeaks releases.

    Incoming House Intelligence Committee chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) said this week that one of the first things his committee might do is to unmask the blocked cell phone number that Donald Trump Jr. called while he was in the midst of coordinating a meeting with Russian operatives.

    The blocked number is significant because President Donald Trump himself also uses a blocked number to communicate with people. If it turns out that Trump Jr. called his father while he was arranging meetings with Russian officials, it could mean that he lied under oath when he told Congress that he never mentioned the meetings with his father.

    It would now also mean that Trump lied under oath in written answers to Mueller’s investigation.

    Bradley Moss, a national security lawyer, writes on Twitter that Trump may have put himself in grave legal peril if Mueller has evidence to contradict his sworn testimony.

    “Trump drew a line in the sand,” he wrote. “He had better hope Mueller doesn’t have something that contradicts these denials or that’s all she wrote.”

  9. Ken Starr: The hammer is about to drop on Paul Manafort after Mueller learns he was a mole for Trump

    Former independent counsel Ken Starr told CNN on Wednesday that Paul Manafort is in even deeper trouble with Robert Mueller after it was revealed Tuesday that his lawyer has been briefing the president’s legal team about what he’s been telling federal investigators.

    “You at this stage belong to the prosecutors. You’re now inside the tent, you’re part of the team,” Starr said of Manafort. “So to be leaking information to the lawyers outside the team, that’s going to be viewed very seriously and obviously is.”

  10. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. And now to get ready to head off for yet another Bunnings sausage sizzle.

    Are there any more wheels to fall off the government bus? Now it’s the mental giant Craig Kelly threatening to move to the crossbench.
    Ouch! In a MUST READ contribution from professor of politics James Walter writes that the Liberal Party, this once great political institution, will founder unless it can give up pandering to its “base” and appeal broadly to Australian voters.
    Michelle Grattan writes that Morrison’s authority deficit is on show at home and abroad.
    The AFR says that the Liberal Party is in agony. It says that the party is divided between moderates who fear that voters take strong Liberal management of the economy for granted, while being repelled when even good policies in other areas like education and energy only seem to emerge out of endless ideological brawling.
    The Australian reckons Turnbull has been playing an invisible hand.
    Morrison is battling to reassert his authority after another day of chaos, with Labor accusing him of running a “part-time Parliament”, Julie Bishop fuelling suspicions she has leadership ambitions, and growing calls for Peter Dutton to refer himself to the High Court.
    In the wake of the Victorian election rout John Warhurst writes that the federal Liberals will lose if they blame messaging and continue to be deaf to the concerns of middle Australia.
    And The Age tells us why Matthew Guy just had to go.
    And in South Australia regional communities are piling increasing pressure on the State Government on multiple fronts, as country constituents in Liberal heartland double down on issues they say will hurt them.
    Latika Bourke is telling us that now Liberals are urging Dave Sharma to run against Tony Abbott in Warringah. Bring it on!
    Niki Savva writes that the Liberal Party is marked by dysfunction and it is no longer recognisable to many of its natural constituency.
    As a shift in Australia’s political system seems possible, a new government is a necessary change. Kim Wingerei examines what needs to be done in order to make the change a successful one.,12143
    Rory McGuire pleads for scientists to be embedded in parliament.
    Elizabeth Knight explains how the ANZ boss was led into a minefield by Rowena Orr at the royal commission yesterday.
    Has the NAB learned nothing from the royal commission? Now it has become embroiled in a new pressure-­selling scandal after it was caught using its “values” ­reward scheme to force its staff to “fill” its “funnel” with new loans before the Christmas break.
    Karen Maley writes that ANZ boss Shayne Elliott used his stint in the witness box at the banking royal commission to explain just how an industry that appeared to enjoy every possible blessing was still able to shoot itself in the foot.
    Meanwhile industry super funds are leading a revolt against the hefty bonuses paid to senior banking executives over the last year, with momentum building for the remuneration reports of Westpac, National Australia Bank and ANZ Banking Group to be voted down at their upcoming annual meetings.
    It was another big day at the commission yesterday.
    The SMH editorial sees this as an historic chance to put a federal ICAC into place. It poopoos Morrison’s declaration that it is a “fringe issue”.
    It goes on to say the national integrity body needs consensus and credibility.
    San Maiden reports that Morrison is facing demands to produce legal advice on all MPs facing a constitutional question, with a key cross bench MP warning she’s “not here to play favourites”.
    Jacqui Maley writes about the rather thin sitting schedule for parliament next year.
    The Canberra Time editorial says that the Coalition can’t fix its culture with respect women in its ranks in time for the next election. Instead, it may take years of sustained effort. The article points to what has happened in the public service as something to emulate.
    And Emma Koehn reports on how some of Australia’s leading female entrepreneurs have delivered a scathing assessment of federal politics, calling out parliament for failing to empower women even as they launch successful companies in record numbers.
    Katharine Murphy questions why parliament still tolerates thuggery that is not acceptable in broader society.
    Meanwhile the online version of Spectator Australia has posted an article this afternoon featuring a cropped image of Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young (removing her head and zeroing in on her breasts) under the headline ‘Sarah Hanson-Young’s credibility gap’.
    One year on from the installation of the big battery in SA the he Australian Energy Market Operator says it is pleased with the overall performance of the technology. Perhaps this report will end the debate on the battery’s benefits to the state.
    Greg Jericho tells us how the public sector has propped up construction – and conservatives are taking the credit. He says that if private-sector construction continues to falter, it will become harder and harder to disguise
    This will get the right wingers fired up. Chris Masters reports that the Australian Federal Police has launched a major investigation into Australia’s most decorated former soldier, Ben Roberts-Smith, over allegations he committed war crimes in Afghanistan.
    Eryk Bagshaw reports that the Morrison government , in a bid to stifle Labor’s own review ,will launch a review of the beleaguered vocational education sector after years of scandal and business complaints over the mismatch between job-seekers and employers
    Anna Patty writes that Saul Eslake has said company tax cuts, privatisation and deregulation no longer “cut it” in the wider community. He further said deregulation and freer trade were harder to sell politically because slow wages growth meant it was “not at all obvious to a large number of people that these things have actually benefited them”.
    The future of The Overland train service has been thrown into doubt after the State Government axed funding after the end of this year. Great Southern Rail confirmed on Wednesday evening that unless the service, which operates between Adelaide and Melbourne, finds financial backing before the end of December it will be scrapped.
    Judith Sloan on $357000 per year from The Australian, FFS!
    Jess Irvine posits that there is a hidden generational fault line dividing Australians that is set to heavily influence the upcoming federal election.
    David Uren writes that Morrison’s ‘big stick’ against energy companies is truly draconian and sets a dangerous precedent. He says it is a remedy that shouts sovereign risk to any business contemplating an investment in our energy sector.
    The Lion Air jet that crashed into the sea off Indonesia last month was not in an airworthy condition on its second-to-last flight, when pilots experienced similar problems to those on its doomed last journey, investigators have said. This stinks of criminality.
    This 15 year old student makes the case for why students will go on strike tomorrow over climate change inaction.
    Max Koslowski reports that parliamentary stunts like Pauline Hanson’s controversial “It’s OK to be white” motion will be reined in after the Senate rushed through urgent changes to stop the use of trivial and often deliberately divisive motions that have little chance of actually being passed.
    Au pairs who come to work in Australia are paid as cheaply as babysitters but often end up working like housekeepers, doing around 36 hours of work a week, in what researchers say is another example of exploitation of foreign workers in Australia.
    Jane Gilmore says that we know what to do and national efforts to end family violence could draw from Victoria.
    Afterpay and its ilk received a bit of a reprieve from ASIC yesterday but a Senate inquiry into these organisations and payday lenders continues.
    South Sudanese Australians and Andrew Gaze have condemned the ‘prejudicial’ axing of a basketball event.
    Britain crashing out of the European Union without a deal could trigger a deep and damaging recession with worse consequences for the UK economy than the 2008 financial crisis, the Bank of England has warned.
    In the last month, we have learned that an oil spill in the Great Australian Bight could be worse than the Deepwater Horizon event with oil reaching all the way to the Great Ocean Road and Sydney’s Bondi Beach.,12145
    Unsurprisingly, class action firms say they want RCR Tomlinson’s cash flow problems investigated as more consider filing legal suits.
    Ikea’s profits have fallen by more than a third as the world’s biggest furnishing retailer invests in improving its online business and tests smaller city-centre stores.
    The global food system is broken, leaving billions of people either underfed or overweight and driving the planet towards climate catastrophe, according to 130 national academies of science and medicine across the world.
    The Washington Post reports that a lawyer for Paul Manafort repeatedly briefed Trump’s lawyers on his client’s discussions with federal investigators after Manafort agreed to cooperate with the special counsel, according to one of Trump’s lawyers and two other people familiar with the conversations.
    Ivanka Trump says ‘Lock her up!’ doesn’t apply in her case.
    The Washington Post looks at the two years of Melania Trump as first lady.
    Bloomberg explains the critical situation Bitcoin is in.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe takes the big blue bus to the G20.

    Mark David with Morrison’s house.

    From Cathy Wilcox.

    Mark Knight and the results brought about by the preference whisperer.

    Jon Kudelka places Morrison in the bubble.
    Quite a few excellent toons in here.

  11. BK

    Trojan effort today, chronicling the Decline and Fall of the Liberal Empire. And remember, onions on the bottom.

    And to give ScoFauxMo something to ponder while he jets off to Buenos Aries, his predecessor is taking a leaf out of Tony Abbott’s book of treachery. And isn’t the SmearStralian a joy to behold today!

    “Malcolm Turnbull has been in ­regular contact with Kerryn Phelps and one of his staff members helped the independent MP, who played a key role in counselling Julia Banks before her shock defection from the Liberal Party.

    The Australian can reveal the former prime minister has been messaging Dr Phelps, the independent who claimed his seat of Wentworth, and a former electorate office staffer worked for his successor for three days as part of a “handover”.

    Former Coalition colleagues last night expressed ongoing concern over the support Mr Turnbull has given Dr Phelps, after he was unwilling to provide public backing to Liberal candidate Dave Sharma during the Wentworth by-election campaign.

    It also emerged yesterday that Ms Banks, a friend and supporter of the former prime minister, consulted with Dr Phelps for weeks before abandoning Scott Morrison’s government.

    A senior Liberal source said they believed that Mr Turnbull was advising Dr Phelps on strategy and that “his hands are all over the Julia Banks” resignation.

    “He is consumed by bringing down the government,” the Liberal source said.

    A Liberal MP last night questioned whether Mr Turnbull had assisted Dr Phelps to help “win the seat against the Liberal Party and a candidate whose preselection he had endorsed”. Another said the contact between Dr Phelps and Mr Turnbull “speaks for itself and confirms everybody’s suspicions”, adding that “there are suspicions he is in contact with others”.

  12. And Malcolm Turnbull tweets this…

    Attribution bias – blaming others for the consequences of your own actions is a common symptom of paranoia. Imagining “invisible” people are out to get you is also a classic symptom. Not often on the front page of course…

  13. Giuliani’s conversations with Manafort’s lawyers aren’t privileged — and he could be subpoenaed: legal experts

    The conversations between lawyers for Donald Trump and his former campaign manager Paul Manafort would not be covered by attorney-client privilege — and the president’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani could be forced to appear before a grand jury because of it.

    NBC News reported that cooperation between the president’s legal team and that of his indicted former campaign manager could amount to obstruction of justice depending on what was discussed.

  14. MB

    Thinkers in the Coalitioo Party Room?

    Wilson has a one track mind


    So an ideolog not a thinker

    There is a difference

    Thinkers to me question – everything and particularly when all around them are of the same view – so deliberately recalcitrant if you like and for the purpose of debating the outcomes and the impacts

    For every action there is a reaction

    And just to repeat, Murdoch is now reporting that internal polling is showing O’Dwyer in real trouble as I put on here last week, my source being Liberal Party identities (who are anti Bastiaan and Kroger “Why would you go to Pentecostal religions and Probus Clubs to get the numbers to take control of the Party?”)

  15. Dan Tehan had accused a woman (can’t remember her name) who criticised his handling of the Research Grants as “hysterical”.

    Well that was really well-timed, Dan, when accusing a woman of being hysterical is one of the sexist adjectives being pointed out to anyone with half a brain.

  16. Observer,
    Yes, I know Wilson is IPA, but…
    Compared with the slugs in the LNP party room, Wilson is a thinker.
    Compared to the average Australian, not so much.

  17. “Judith Sloan on $357000 per year from The Australian, FFS!”
    The underlying question here is ..what is Rupert buying with his money?
    Time for a Royal Commission into News Limited ?

  18. but increasing the spending power of a group of people without actually creating jobs in the same process is inflationary

    There is a big difference between paying $35,600 per year to 3.75 million people aged 65 and over and paying $35,600 per year to all 20.2 million Australian citizens and permanent migrants aged 15 years and over.

    Proponents of a UBI do not address the inflationary impacts of their seriously crappy idea.

  19. James Campbell @J_C_Campbell
    ReachTEL poll of Higgins shows has Liberal primary vote dropping 14 per cent since the last federal election and Kelly O’Dwyer well behind the ALP on 2PP.

  20. Bill Shorten going in for the kill.

    Shorten Suite @Shorten_Suite
    2m2 minutes ago
    More Shorten Suite Retweeted James Campbell
    Turns out representing a party that is “Homophobic, anti-women and climate change deniers” is not so great for @KellyODwyer #auspol

  21. Morning all. Thanks BK. As I said last night, pure personal self interest explains everything the Libs are doing now. I think this also explains why there will be no ICAC under them – a few might fear it. The Reichspotato might be in hot water too if referred. I do hope he is referred before the end of the week. Others have gone for far lesser amounts.

    As for Molan and Kelly, if they join Cory’s Conservatives they might raise the average IQ of both parties.

    Jokes aside, what a pathetic rabble. They are well into saving the furniture mode now.

  22. @Trish_Corry
    14h14 hours ago

    I am not kidding. I repeat, I am not kidding. There is a senate Committee called: SENATE COMMITTEE INTO FAIR DINKUM POWER.

    Can anyone confirm that the Coalition is as stupid as this?

  23. Morning all and thanks BK and phoenixRed for today’s efforts.

    And now to get ready to head off for yet another Bunnings sausage sizzle.

    I’ll take my onions on top please.

    Have just finished reading the James Walter article in the SMH. I do think predictions of the Liberal party’s demise are premature, but he certainly makes a compelling case for it.

    The age of the mass party, which the Liberal Party once was, is over. The mass media, too, has been revolutionised. The leader-centric pragmatism Menzies pioneered, and the means of speaking to the people and the broad church this could mobilise, saw its last invocation in John Howard.

    Mass support has dissolved. The possibility of tightly controlling the message through consolidated media and predictable cycles that even Howard could utilise has gone. Leaders must now cope with technological diversity, social media and the perversity of aggregating opinion not through party channels, or shock-jock mates on radio, but via internet-mediated algorithms. The fantasy that News Corp backers of the conservative cause can swing elections has evaporated.

    Maybe it was a blessing in disguise that Labor never had the instinctive backing of the msm and had to find its own ways of communicating with people, but as a party of the collective, it never had that leader-centric style. Only once did Labor embrace that with Rudd, and that ended in failure.

  24. Fess

    The result in Victoria ought to be a huge wake up call to the fibs.
    Culture wars ain’t going to cut it anymore.
    I could not believe Matt Guy announcing prior to election day that one of the first things he would do is shut down safe injecting room in Richmond. Seriously wtf?

  25. The Australian has turned the mixmaster up to 11 on Turnbull.

    What do you expect from people who pay Judith Sloan $300k plus a year? Sensible journalism?

    It’s a poor attempt at deflection. I reckon the story today will still be what a joke Morrison and his government is.m

  26. Victoria:

    I didn’t get the opposition to Safe Schools either. Even on election day some of them were still going on about that as if it was THE most important issue facing Victorians.

  27. “Can anyone confirm that the Coalition is as stupid as this?”
    Wouldn’t be suppressed to find out the Liberals use the same PR company the banks are using in attempt to spin out of the Bank RC without harm… it’s not working for either of them

  28. Those that are critical of Judith Sloan’s salary at the Oz need to remember that it is very hard to find people with qualifications in economics to write the sort of stuff she does – does anyone remember the Oz’s claim that smoking rates were going up as the result of plain packaging??? Sloan was prepared to add her voice to that, along with McCrann and several others.

  29. Fess

    Yep and the safe schools.

    Just to give an example of what the fibs are not getting. Even if the older crowd are more conservative and ideological, their offspring and grandkids hold sway.

    For example.
    At the time of the ssm survey, one of our friends whose father is an elderly Italian migrant said he would vote no.
    His daughter who happened to live interstate found out from our friend.
    She called her dad and asked why he was voting no. Anyhoo they had a discussion, and cutting long story short, he changed his mind after hearing her out.

Comments Page 1 of 67
1 2 67

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *