BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

A devastating Newspoll strips the Coalition of almost all of its poll trend gains from two improved results last week.

In the week that brought them the Victorian election result, Newspoll has taken from the Coalition what Ipsos and Essential Research gave the week before in BludgerTrack, with Labor up 0.6% on two-party preferred and making seat projection gains in Victoria and South Australia. I’m afraid I’ve been too preoccupied/lazy to update the leadership trends, but Newspoll is unlikely to have changed them much. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

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  1. I think its a major mistake Morrison leaving hte election until May, i guess he was thinking he needs time to recover and rebuild the vote. If he hasnt already he will realise that an earlier election was needed to stop it getting worse.

    At the rate the rats are deserting, i dont see how he can wait another 6 months, surely he will have to bring the election forward.

    Even an mid Feb election as inconvenient as it would be with weather etc, would be better than waiting a further 3 months.

    The longer he leaves it, the more time he gives the rusted on voters to even realise they need to be back in opposition to sort themselves out.

  2. I am not sure where we were at with the scoresheet. What is notable is that Turnbull, Bishop, Banks, Kelly and unnamed others are openly defying Abbott’s call that it is time for unity. The other meme is that the Liberals are truly clueless on women. This ranges from slutshaming by Smut for Brains in the Senate, Tehan doing the ‘hysterical’ woman routine, Banks being called a rat (fair enough) and part of the ‘perfumed mafia’ (misogyny) and Pyne trying to intimidate the Xbench Women. All this is best summed by O’Dwyer arguing in public that the Party is both the natural Party for women and in private that the Party is seen as anti-women. Anyway, here goes:

    110. After Claiming Bragging Rights on Meeting Trump at the G20, Morrison is Snubbed Cockup.
    111. Frydenberg G20 No Show Cockup.
    112. Pyne Bullies the XBench Women. Cockup.
    113. Billions on Border Security But Still a Major 457 Visa Cockup.
    114. JBishop Undercuts Dutton on Eligibility Cockup.
    115. Sittings Democracy Drought Cockup.
    116. Laming Blames Teachers for Their Hours Cockup.
    117. O’Dwyer ‘The Coalition is Natural Government for Women Cockup.
    118. Tehan Research Approvals Backflip Cockup.
    119. Kelly Preselection Blackmail Cockup.
    120. Bishop Trailing Her Coat Cockup.
    121. Turnbull ‘s Invisible Hand Cockup.
    122. Sharma Urged to Take on Abbott Cockup.
    123. Morrison’s Sham VET Inquiry Cockup.
    124. Global Warming Impacts Cockup.
    125. Tehan Attacks Female Critic for being Hysterical Cockup.

  3. You gotta ask why?

    PoliticsVideoChannel
    PoliticsVideoChannel
    @politvidchannel
    BREAKING: Sen. Dick Durbin Just confirmed the White House Blocked the CIA Director from briefing the senate on Khashoggi Murder He Told Reporters that Sec. Pompeo said in his senate briefing that the CIA Director Gina Haspel’s absence was “a decision by the White House

  5. Victoria:

    Yes you’d have thought they’d realise the SSM vote being as decisive as it was indicates most voters are for equality and inclusion, and want MPs to focus on issues like the economy and so forth.

  6. I am not kidding. I repeat, I am not kidding. There is a senate Committee called: SENATE COMMITTEE INTO FAIR DINKUM POWER.

    Can anyone confirm that the Coalition is as stupid as this?

    Guess who must have been stupid enough to vote for its establishment?

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/greens-establish-senate-inquiry-into-fair-dinkum-power-51108/

    If Prime Minister Scott Morrison didn’t already regret coining the phrase “fair dinkum power” – after it was hijacked by renewables supporters, led by billionaire entrepreneur Mike Cannon-Brookes – he must surely be regretting it now.

    Last night, the upper house voted almost unanimously to create a Select Committee into Fair Dinkum Power, an inquiry proposed by the Australian Greens to cut through the “meaningless and misleading” energy policy being served up by the federal Coalition.

    Slated to meet on November 28, and to report on June 30 next year, the inquiry will examine the workings of the electricity market, power prices and energy generation methods.
    :::
    “Australians are right to be angry that we’re being screwed with huge power bills, and we should be even angrier that the Morrison government’s answer is more coal,” Hanson-Young said in comments on Thursday.

    “This inquiry will bust the myths being peddled by the Morrison government about renewable energy, grid stability and power bills.

    “If Scott Morrison was actually ‘fair dinkum’ about power, he would let evidence, not ideology, guide energy policy.

  7. Clare O’Neil MP
    ‏@ClareONeilMP

    Last night, the Morrison government voted against Labor’s proposal to increase jail time for serious corporate criminals, and increase fines for big companies who do wrong.

    Protecting the Coalition maaaates.

  9. Bug1

    Morrison’s problem with going early is the budget.

    If he wants to try and buy a victory, a la Howard and Costello, he needs a giveaway budget.

    He basically committed himself to May this week and it would, I think, take extraordinary events to change that. He still has the support of the crossbench for confidence and supply and the parliament won’t be sitting much anyway.

  10. Good Morning

    That Ken Wingiari article outlines where I see change needed and why I see Mr Shorten being a great Prime Minister.

    In the move to a republic we must have a new constitution that does not have racism at its heart ignoring our First People. Having a Bill of Rights is a must and we cannot let the US Supreme Court interpretation of a well ordered militia stop us.

    Trump would do so much more damage if he became PM. I shudder when I think of what may have happened with Mark Latham PM.
    As the GOP has shown we can’t rely on a party curbing a PM.

    If you have not read the article BK linked I urge you to do so.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/ethical-politics-reforming-our-democracy,12143

  11. The House GOP’s near-total abdication of any oversight role has done more than just shield President Trump on matters involving his finances and Russian collusion. It has also resulted in almost no serious scrutiny of the true depths of cruelty, inhumanity and bad-faith rationalization driving important aspects of Trump’s policy agenda — in particular, on his signature issue of immigration.

    That’s about to change.

    In an interview with me, the incoming chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee vowed that when Democrats take over in January, they will undertake thorough and wide-ranging scrutiny of the justifications behind — and executions of — the top items in Trump’s immigration agenda, from the family separations, to the thinly veiled Muslim ban, to the handling of the current turmoil involving migrants at the border.

    “We will visit the border,” Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), who is expected to chair the committee, which has jurisdiction over the Department of Homeland Security, told me. “We will hold hearings in committee on any and all aspects of DHS. … We will not back off of this issue.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/11/28/the-true-depths-of-trumps-cruelty-are-about-to-be-exposed/?utm_term=.293b5bcafb3f

  12. He still has the support of the crossbench for confidence and supply and the parliament won’t be sitting much anyway.

    Just 10 days in the first 8 months of 2019 to be precise.

  14. Morrison can’t recover if he doesn’t legislate. That leaves it all up to the budget.
    If that budget continues cutting social security health education the abc then Morrison is still breaking Abbott’s campaign promises that the country wanted as a minimum when Rudd was voted out. Of course still no energy policy.

  16. You smell that? Do you smell that?… Paranoia, son. Nothing else in the world smells like that. I love the smell of paranoia in the morning. The smell, you know that pants shitting smell, the whole party. Smelled like… victory.

  18. The budget will be the policy speech.

    There will be a surplus (real or not most likely not) and money for everybody. Maybe even the ABC.

    Shorten will reply on the Thursday and I doubt the parliament will sit again before a May 11 election.

  20. ratsak @ #66 Thursday, November 29th, 2018 – 9:31 am

    You smell that? Do you smell that?… Paranoia, son. Nothing else in the world smells like that. I love the smell of paranoia in the morning. The smell, you know that pants shitting smell, the whole party. Smelled like… victory.

    I love the sub-heading – “Ex-PM walking fine line, risks party expulsion”

    I’m sure he’s quaking in his boots at that threat! 🙂

  21. ratsak

    It will be fun. They will see a Turnbull in every shadow, behind every tree, under every bed. No misfortune will be without a Turnbull connection 😀

  22. Victoria Fess

    The Marriage Survey was very damaging to the LGBTI community. However it’s good to see Labor people see the message.

    That means be bold on inclusion and equality. The culture war has been won by the good guys and we should act like it. Which is what I see Bill Shorten doing.

    Actual fight back on erosion of human rights in the name of national security. We end human rights the terrorists have won. Standing up strongly for the minorities.

    All good policy and vote winners. I have no doubt now we won’t have a minimalist model for a Republic because we will have a Treaty with our First People which requires a new Constitution to be a real Treaty. A process that has done some real good for NZ

  23. I love the sub-heading – “Ex-PM walking fine line, risks party expulsion”

    Oh noes cries Truffles , no more invites to functions where I get a chance to rub shoulders with the Mad Monk,Pastor Fozzie Bear, Adolph Kipfler, Erica Betz K’OD and a fossilized Rodent.

  24. ”
    Boerwar says:
    Thursday, November 29, 2018 at 9:05 am
    124. Global Warming Impacts Cockup.
    ”
    That is the biggest cockup because we are already witnessing the effects of that cockup both electorally & climatically albeit conceding that without US, Russia & China implementing Paris agreement in letter pretty soon earth beings are in for a very rough ride from mother nature.

  26. The Libs are facing a daunting TPP, but is likely to lose a lot more seats than a uniform swing.

    Many of their previously safe ‘socially progressive economically conservative’ seats (like Higgins) will have a much higher swing against, and some will fall.

    They’ll lose some seats from defectors – either to the defector or to labor with the defector as a spoil.

    They will be facing a huge number of independents in seats that labor doesn’t threaten. A lot of these will be hyped by the media as a potential winner and then end up on 10-15% of primary and behind labor. But some might win and even the ones that don’t will drain both liberal party funds and pork barreling funds.

    The nats are led by the worlds most boring man, who is unlikely to pull them out of their slow decline. They also are vulnerable to independents, having lost a lot of very safe state seats recently.

    Scomo probably should have bought a smaller bus. I’ve heard good things about those 7 seater SUVs

  29. “Morrison’s problem with going early is the budget.

    If he wants to try and buy a victory, a la Howard and Costello, he needs a giveaway budget.”

    I can see he’d think thats his best option. But…with defections and Kaos happening and to come they may come to think that putting up the”outlines” of a fist full of dollars budget, without delivering the whole thing (cuts and all) is better??

    Either way they are fwarked.

  30. ACT doing the legalise cannabis use will be a great economic boost.
    Expected to pass in February.

    Another example of the loss of the culture war of the right. Starting to treat addicts as a medical problem and a middle finger to the wowsers on recreational cannabis use.

  32. Senator Murray Watt
    ‏
    5m5 minutes ago

    The Government’s 2019 Senate sitting calendar is a joke. Labor is trying to amend it, to add some Estimates sessions before election called. Will allow interrogation of Budget, before an election. Accountability matters. #auspol

  36. IMacca

    They are indeed. But don’t expect them to rollover and die peacefully.
    This election will bring out the worst in what is essentially a pretty nasty party anyway.

  37. So, for some time we have had serious drought that even the a lot of farmers are talking Climate change about.

    Have schoolkids rallying against Govt inaction on climate Change.

    Have major fire disaster in QLD. Have major flooding in Sydney. Extreme opposite ends of extreme weather….on the same day. And extreme weather is what we have been told to expect from Climate Change.

    And the Govt has nuthin on Climate Change. Zombie Govt barley shuffling along.

  38. I’ve been looking into the surplus idea.

    The announcement of a surplus for 19-20 was odd… the previous budget already had that as a surplus of 2.2bn. Coorey in the AFR suggested the surplus was going to be larger and so materially different from zero.

    Further observations: The first four months of the 2018-19 Budget actuals put the position about 9bn ahead of target. It’s entirely plausible that the position of the 2019-20 budget could be 15-20bn better than in Budget 2018. Assuming the PM wants to leave a surplus of around $10bn, so as to be clearly non-zero, he can probably spend about $5-10bn in 19-20. And that doesn’t count the $9b he could spend this financial year at MYEFO.

    Long story short, there’s room for goodies and a surplus, so long as the employment and wages data hold up.

  39. Ye Old Sir Wombat
    ‏
    Replying to @YouStormorg

    Hi I’m in Queensland now and want to say great images did you know that the fires are burning right in the middle of where Japan gets most of its coal. The area is also home to the very last 120 hairy Nosed wombats. Hope that gives some perspective

  41. I think Bishop’s shoes look bloody horrible. Criminally unsafe footware with her tootsies jimmied into them. And true to her party’s nickname for her, after all this catastrophe she’ll still be there…

  48. Labor changes Senate sitting dates for next year
    Labor has won that battle, with the Senate divide ending in 33 to the ayes to 30 noes.

    What that means is that the budget estimate hearings will most likely be done in the same week as the budget – the Thursday and Friday of that week (4 and 5 April).

    If the election is not called before then, the budget estimates hearings will probably be held from 8 April. The Senate still has to decide on the exact dates.

    Labor has just ensured it gets the last word on the government’s budget before we go to an election.

  49. guytaur

    It makes change a bit easier and it also means the Treaty of Waitangi has a real claim as a founding document.

    A good look at the treaty here. In the article you can see why Maori are several laps ahead of Aborigines in the race for sovereignty

    About 40 chiefs, starting with Hōne Heke, signed the Māori version of the Treaty on 6 February. By September, another 500 had signed the copies of the document that were sent around the country.

    The Treaty is a broad statement of principles on which the British and Māori made a political compact to found a nation state and build a government in New Zealand. The document has three articles. In the English version, Māori cede the sovereignty of New Zealand to Britain; Māori give the Crown an exclusive right to buy lands they wish to sell, and, in return, are guaranteed full rights of ownership of their lands, forests, fisheries and other possessions; and Māori are given the rights and privileges of British subjects.

    https://nzhistory.govt.nz/politics/treaty/the-treaty-in-brief

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