BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

A devastating Newspoll strips the Coalition of almost all of its poll trend gains from two improved results last week.

In the week that brought them the Victorian election result, Newspoll has taken from the Coalition what Ipsos and Essential Research gave the week before in BludgerTrack, with Labor up 0.6% on two-party preferred and making seat projection gains in Victoria and South Australia. I’m afraid I’ve been too preoccupied/lazy to update the leadership trends, but Newspoll is unlikely to have changed them much. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 55 of 67
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  1. JimmyD @ #2694 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 12:51 pm

    You argued that public transport was all about a certain set of criteria that you reckon light rail fails to satisfy. But now that its been pointed out to you that you inadvertently snared heavy rail in your argument, you’ve suddenly shifted the goalposts to avoid having to admit you were wrong.

    It’s so completely beyond your ability to acknowledge that maybe, just maybe, public transport is a vastly complex subject matter with a similarly vast array of objectives, and that some of those objectives may very well be best met by light rail.

    So once again, you’ve demonstrated the fundamental intellectual dishonesty that underpins all your arguments.

    Seriously?

    You and CC clearly both have much bigger problems than just being out-argued in a fairly trivial discussion on an anonymous blog.

  6. TPOF,

    Nah, It’s a Blue v Red contest. For an Indie you need Labor PV sub 20 or there abouts.

    Labor’s PV will be high 30s minimum.

    It’s nothing like Wentworth or the North Shore where Labor is anathema.

  8. A 2 March 2019 federal election on the same day as the Sydney Mardi Gras Parade would have had a certain je ne sais quoi

    😀 😀

  9. P1
    Like CC, you resort to insult whenever your arguments fail.

    Nice try, but no. I’m simply just disinterested in continuing a conversation with a joke. And make no mistake… you are a joke.

  10. ratsak

    The Labor candidate got 32% PV in the last election. I can’t see that gap being bridged, even via 3rd party candidates.

  11. Melbourne actually gets more sunshine in Summer compared to Sydney. In January Sydney averages 7.5 hours of sunshine per day verses 9.0 in Melbourne.

  12. This should fix it.

    In honour of the 75th anniversary of the election of the first women to parliament, the House of Representatives and Senate alcoves are being renamed in honour of Dame Dorothy Tangney and Dame Enid Lyons.

    The timing just seems absolutely exquisite. You could not script this stuff.*

    *Turns out you can – we have just been informed that Labor apparently started this process and the presiding officers agreed

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/dec/03/liberals-coalition-turnbull-craig-kelly-preselection-question-time-labor-politics-live
    – Guardian.

  13. ratsak
    It’s nothing like Wentworth or the North Shore where Labor is anathema.

    That’s true. The state seats that cover Hughes – Miranda, Holsworthy, and Heathcote – are all seats Labor lost in 2011.

  16. Jimmy

    If Newcastle gets a light rail network it should take the role of being a tier above buses – express toutes on dedicated corridor. Like Charlestown – Kotara – Broadmeadow – CBD.

    And it has to be implemented cost effectively – not the TfNSW B Team.

  17. Listening to radio in the car I heard that the cross bench sat out on a division. Again. Except for Katter, who voted with Coalition.

    Wimps.

  18. Kimberley Kitching
    Kimberley Kitching
    @kimbakit
    ·
    5h
    Even at a kids end of year sporting awards ceremony, for the Liberals it’s all about themselves as Liberal “dignitaries” refuse to shake hands, swear at each other and embarrass everyone especially themselves #auspol

  20. Rex: “Will Bill Shorten have the decency to support Kerryn Phelps refugee bill ..?”

    She hasn’t supported any Labor motions yet. Phelps, Sharkie, et al are being paid not to vote in parliament.

  21. Steve777 says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 1:15 pm
    Melbourne actually gets more sunshine in Summer compared to Sydney. In January Sydney averages 7.5 hours of sunshine per day verses 9.0 in Melbourne.

    I went to Sydney once. Took hours just to get to the City from the airport. A friend of mine said let’s go to the football – turns out it wasn’t football but soccer. He then said let’s get fish and chips – the fish was mullet so I gave it a wide berth. Then it took hours to get back to the airport to escape the place.

  23. The Liberals are in such a state that the PMO has instructed all government members to avoid the media – leading to some farcical scenes like this.

    Assistant Minister for Social Services Sarah Henderson has refused to answer questions after issuing a media alert for an event to celebrate the International Day of People with Disability.

    Henderson fled through the members private dining room, forcing cameras and journalists to chase her through an area which journalists are banned from entering.

    Liberal MP Tony Pasin was at the same event and charged through TV cameras, pushing aside one cameraman with his shoulder as he made his exit.

    The government MPs appear intent on avoiding questions as the Coalition deals an ongoing fall out between its conservative and moderate factions.

  24. Then your imagination is failing you TPOF. Which considering the Victorian election is a bit strange.

    The Liberals have condemned themselves to a massive repudiation in Hughes. It won’t be going to and independent.

    And no Kent won’t stand against Kelly. He’s too well positioned in the party to throw it away. He’ll know the government’s dead and will be positioning himself for post election. Possibly even to run in Cook assuming ScoMo resigns post election (which is looking a better bet every day).

    He’s got the numbers, he’s well and truly owed, and is in it for the long haul.

  27. Cud Chewer
    If Newcastle gets a light rail network it should take the role of being a tier above buses – express toutes on dedicated corridor. Like Charlestown – Kotara – Broadmeadow – CBD.

    I agree. There’s ample scope for bus routes to support the accessibility of light rail by linking to light rail stops.

    I think the currently favoured extension route goes via Broadmeadow to John Hunter Hospital.

    I don’t think any consideration has been given to including Kotara or Charlestown, at least not in the near future.

  28. Rex: “Are you suggesting Labor use the refugees as parliamentary bargaining chips ?”

    I’m saying Phelps cannot be trusted on any issue. Hopefully, she’ll disappear from parliament after the next election. Labor is best to avoid her.

  33. sprocket_ @ #2720 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 1:31 pm

    The Liberals are in such a state that the PMO has instructed all government members to avoid the media – leading to some farcical scenes like this.

    Assistant Minister for Social Services Sarah Henderson has refused to answer questions after issuing a media alert for an event to celebrate the International Day of People with Disability.

    Henderson fled through the members private dining room, forcing cameras and journalists to chase her through an area which journalists are banned from entering.

    Liberal MP Tony Pasin was at the same event and charged through TV cameras, pushing aside one cameraman with his shoulder as he made his exit.

    The government MPs appear intent on avoiding questions as the Coalition deals an ongoing fall out between its conservative and moderate factions.

    Henderson is clearly ashamed of her live sheep export backflip which was again highlighted today by the crossbenchers..

  34. @C@tmomma

    Bandt and Wilkie are more aligned to the left, than the others.

    They also have more higher moral standards than the others.

  39. “I’m saying Phelps cannot be trusted on any issue. Hopefully, she’ll disappear from parliament after the next election. Labor is best to avoid her.”

    Nah, she’ll be irrelevant to Labor after the election….but she will be a thorn in the Liberal’s side and occupying one of the dozens of seats they’ll need to win back to form government

    I hope she hangs around for many years

  40. Agree Ratsak – why should the NRL Final be based in Sydney? A perfectly good stadium is being being in Townsville and with Lang Park in Brisbane makes more sense to play in the City of the top finals team (yep the MCG in Melbourne if the storm get up).

    Daley is onto a good thing.

  42. Roger @ #2736 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 1:45 pm

    “I’m saying Phelps cannot be trusted on any issue. Hopefully, she’ll disappear from parliament after the next election. Labor is best to avoid her.”

    Nah, she’ll be irrelevant to Labor after the election….but she will be a thorn in the Liberal’s side and occupying one of the dozens of seats they’ll need to win back to form government

    I hope she hangs around for many years

    At least there’s logic in that comment.

  43. @Rex

    A chaotic government does not have any purpose.
    A chaotic government that is trying to save itself.
    A chaotic government who’s independents which most of them have liberal ideologies, are more likely to align with Liberals, under any condition, to remain in position.

    Non of the above situations is any good for any policy, economics, or saving the refugees.

    if the right aligned independents continue to support liberals, are most likely to support themselves.

    So far they have voted with the incumbent.

  46. What’s wrong with playing the NRL Grand Final in the new stadium which is being built/has been built at Paramatta!?! Isn’t that the geographic centre of Sydney anyway? Or so the developer mates of Gladys keep saying. 🙂

  47. Rebel Labor MP Emma Husar deliberately missed a vote on a motion instigated by her deputy leader Tanya Plibersek calling out Scott Morrison for ‘abandoning women”, saying the ALP party did the same to her.https://t.co/U7mYTwNmbb— The Australian (@australian) December 3, 2018

    Has anyone in NSW Labor taken on the ‘dark elements’ yet ?

  48. timdunlop
    @timdunlop
    4h4 hours ago

    This Turnbull guy–with all his social media chutzpah, telling the Liberal Right what they’re doing wrong, calling their bluff, and standing up to them–he’s got real potential!

    If only he had ever been a position of power within the party to really do something….

  50. Rex Douglas @ #2747 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 1:50 pm

    Rebel Labor MP Emma Husar deliberately missed a vote on a motion instigated by her deputy leader Tanya Plibersek calling out Scott Morrison for ‘abandoning women”, saying the ALP party did the same to her.https://t.co/U7mYTwNmbb— The Australian (@australian) December 3, 2018

    Has anyone in NSW Labor taken on the ‘dark elements’ yet ?

    Turning to The Australian for your agit prop now, Rex?

    Sad.

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