BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

A devastating Newspoll strips the Coalition of almost all of its poll trend gains from two improved results last week.

In the week that brought them the Victorian election result, Newspoll has taken from the Coalition what Ipsos and Essential Research gave the week before in BludgerTrack, with Labor up 0.6% on two-party preferred and making seat projection gains in Victoria and South Australia. I’m afraid I’ve been too preoccupied/lazy to update the leadership trends, but Newspoll is unlikely to have changed them much. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 56 of 67
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  1. This political situation now contains all the elements of a damned good farce. Can’t wait for the climax in the last act!!!

  2. C@tmomma – agree if a NSW team comes tops in the finals, but what if its Cowboys vs Broncos or Storm vs Gold Coast? NSW day’s as the Premier State are fading just like Glady’s numbers.

  4. Zoidlord @ #2740 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 1:48 pm

    @Rex

    A chaotic government does not have any purpose.
    A chaotic government that is trying to save itself.
    A chaotic government who’s independents which most of them have liberal ideologies, are more likely to align with Liberals, under any condition, to remain in position.

    Non of the above situations is any good for any policy, economics, or saving the refugees.

    if the right aligned independents continue to support liberals, are most likely to support themselves.

    So far they have voted with the incumbent.

    Should Liberal and Labor vote for Phelps’ bill ?

  5. C@tmomma @ #2747 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 1:52 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #2747 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 1:50 pm

    Rebel Labor MP Emma Husar deliberately missed a vote on a motion instigated by her deputy leader Tanya Plibersek calling out Scott Morrison for ‘abandoning women”, saying the ALP party did the same to her.https://t.co/U7mYTwNmbb— The Australian (@australian) December 3, 2018

    Has anyone in NSW Labor taken on the ‘dark elements’ yet ?

    Turning to The Australian for your agit prop now, Rex?

    Sad.

    Have you and NSW Labor abandoned Emma ?

  6. lizzie says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 1:52 pm
    This political situation now contains all the elements of a damned good farce. Can’t wait for the climax in the last act!!!

    Oh I hope it’s a slow farce – plenty of action and lot’s of suspense. Backstabbing and bloodletting. You see I got lots of popcorn at the shops this morning.

  7. Dio
    “Dutton is rorting the pairs system. Labor should not pair unless he can show good cause why an arm injury needs two weeks off work.”

    I think he is nursing a bruised ego but you are correct. Abbott did not grant pairs for people to go to funerals, so the generosity does not seem warranted. Dutton is obviously hiding from journos so as not to face questions over s44.

  11. Sarah Hanson-Young
    Sarah Hanson-Young
    @sarahinthesen8
    ·
    2m
    Centre Alliance Senators have just voted with Liberals to shut down debate on removing discrimination against gay students in schools. Appalling. We should have been able to fix this odious law today, but the Xenophon team have stopped the Senate from acting. #auspol

  12. lizzie

    Can’t wait for the climax in the last act!!!

    Spoiler Alert ! It’sssssssssssssss come on down PM Tony Abbott MkII 🙂

  13. https://outline.com/ueryjq

    “The NSW ALP are not without fault on the same things they (Labor) claim to be calling out. On principle and my values I missed the vote given the treatment, isolation and lack of support shown to me,” Ms Husar told The Australian.

    Emma clearly not happy with NSW Labor.

  14. I don’t support the Potato for a second, but when I ripped my Achilles tendon off the bone it took a long time for the leg to function oK. I was well over a month in plaster.

    But that was a leg and I’m sure Dutton had the best of care.

  16. Cud, Guytaur, Jimmy D

    Well said on the benefits of light and heavy rail. I agree that light rail has many advantages if implemented well, as Melbourne trams and Gold Coast LRT demonstrate. in fact if Melbourne trams were upgraded to a full LRT standard in terms of signal priority, they would be faster and move even more people. Many European and North American cities have LRT as the core of their PT system these days, and they are not tourist rides.

    We need to move from thinking about decisions based on Australian experience and look at world trends. Just because something has been done badly here (often after deskilling the public service and rushing a political decision) does not mean it should not be done. We might say Federal parliament and the NBN are not working well, but the solution is to fix them, not kill them off. As with public transport, usually the first step to a solution for all three issues (public transport, NBN and Federal parliament) is to remove the Liberal party from power.

  17. @Catmomma…they won’t play the GF at WSS because of low capacity…..33K. Olympic syadium holds 80K…they want the revenue.

  19. Upnorth.

    The NRL final isn’t going anywhere. The NRL is trying the most transparent of bluffs and Daley is merely calling it.

    But I don’t think he’s bluffing on not forking out a cent to rebuild the SFS if the Trust is silly enough to demolish. Nor will he care if the Libs go signing side letters. He’ll have seen how well that sort of rort worked in Victoria.

    The trust have a big call to make. If they have any sense of history they’ll know Labor doesn’t stay in opposition long in NSW, but they stay in government (sometimes too long).

    Until quite recently Labor were rightly long odds, but circumstances (including losing their leader in a scandal strangely enough) are all currently conspiring against the government big time, and Daley is showing all the signs of being the sort of not scary competent leader that can take full advantage. I don’t think he’s the certainty Shorten is yet, but he’s probably the favourite to win now. That’s pretty remarkable, but he does have the federal government doing everything it can to make him Premier.

  20. Got some goss on Dutton’s arm.
    100% unsubstantiated rumour status.
    He ripped the muscle off his arm while doing some fencing for his Mum.

  21. Tony Wright – I reckon its a Leyland P76

    Malcolm Turnbull says his Monday morning fusillade against the state of Scott Morrison’s government doesn’t amount to either revenge or an intervention in the internal affairs of the party and the government he once led.

    Whatever you might call them – and you’d have to be splitting hairs very finely indeed to deny they amount to an intervention – Turnbull has guaranteed the Morrison government ends its parliamentary year in a car wreck.

  23. @Rex

    Obviously reading fake news TheOz.

    Meanwhile:

    Christopher Pyne is over at the crossbench, having a chat to Cathy McGowan.

    Brings up a key point on why the government would be delaying the religious freedoms bill in the Senate – they don’t want it getting to the House this week. Because they don’t control the numbers in the House anymore, and they can’t control what would happen with it.

    Just something to keep in mind.

    Maybe Rex should attack Centre Alliance and Liberals?

  24. Dutton’s injury sounded pretty bad but he can sit on his arse with his arm in a sling just as well in parliament as he can at home.

  26. Alice Workman
    ‏Verified account @workmanalice
    2m2 minutes ago

    Penny Wong on her feet singling out Centre Alliance for voting with the government and not with LGBT school kids

    Hey Rex, perhaps focus on more important issues, than fake news?

  29. Eliza Berlage

    ‏ @verbaliza
    2m2 minutes ago

    Penny Wong speaking in the Senate on deferring vote on LGBT student bill says “The only reason why we have had the shenanigans that we have just seen … is because he’s worried about the house of representatives, he’s worried about the government. He’s lost control.”

  31. C@tmomma @ #2746 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 1:20 pm

    What’s wrong with playing the NRL Grand Final in the new stadium which is being built/has been built at Paramatta!?! Isn’t that the geographic centre of Sydney anyway? Or so the developer mates of Gladys keep saying. 🙂

    Who gives a flying fig where the NRL hold their finals? I am sure there are more important things for the NSW gov’t to be worrying about.

  34. Barnaby has put his 1000ha of ‘marginal farmland’ on the market.

    Peter Harden
    ‏@hardenuppete
    2h2 hours ago

    So @Barnaby_Joyce decides to finally sell his Gwabegar property just in the middle of an investigation into the original purchase. Just another coincidence I guess like when he bought it in 2006. #auspol

  37. How is it swinging the axe? Husar said she was leaving, so they found someone else for her seat. She’s not entitled to it.

    I would have prefered Husar stayed, but it’s unreasonable for someone who has already been preselected to step aside because she couldn’t make up her mind.

  38. ABC Melbourne
    ‏ @abcmelbourne
    4m4 minutes ago

    #BREAKING: Victorian premier Daniel Andrews has announced there will be a royal commission into the use of a barrister as a police informant.
    1 reply 6 retweets 2 likes

  39. Senator Murray Watt
    ‏Verified account @MurrayWatt
    6m6 minutes ago

    Government now kicks issue into the long grass, by referring to another inquiry. Stopping LGBTI discrimination has to wait for another day, or another government.

  40. “Why would center alliance do that?”

    I don’t know but I know a certain someone who would see centre alliance as a threat for making quota for re-election

  41. Greg Jericho
    ‏Verified account @GrogsGamut
    4m4 minutes ago

    The bile really rises to the back of the throat listening to the bullshit being stated in the Senate right now by the govt about why they are moving the legislation to committee

  44. Josh Butler
    Josh Butler
    @JoshButler
    ·
    47s
    absolute shenanigans in the Senate just now – a vote on Labor push to stop discrimination against LGBT students has been blocked by the government + some crossbench, despite Morrison saying he supported the idea.

    Penny Wong is fired up – “call an election” she thunders
    Possum Comitatus
    Possum Comitatus
    @Pollytics
    ·
    5m
    So basically the gov has fallen apart to the point where pretty much nothing can be risked being taken to the House of Reps to vote on.

    Talk about putting the over into government

  45. nath says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 2:17 pm
    Is Christopher Pyne the next LOTO after the election. My money is on him.
    ———————————————————————————
    I’m backing Stuart Robert…:)))

  46. Jane Norman
    ‏Verified account @janeenorman
    4m4 minutes ago

    Minutes after the Government shuts down debate on religious protections in the Senate …
    #auspol

  47. I feel quite sorry for Emma, but once she made the call to quit she can hardly blame Labor for moving on. Had she stuck it out Shorten probably would have stuck by her. But he’s got much bigger fish to fry and she can’t be expecting him to go into bat for her now she’s had a change of heart.

    She looks like she’s copped a nasty deal, but she isn’t completely without a hand in her own fate either. She may have had a future after a bit of time, she’s young and opportunities turn up for those that keep turning up. But she’s going to burn all her bridges on the way out. A real shame

  48. PatriciaKarvelas
    ‏Verified account @PatsKarvelas
    3m3 minutes ago

    I have just been kicked out of #QT because you can allegedly see too much skin. His insane #Auspol

  49. PatriciaKarvelas
    ‏
    Verified account

    @PatsKarvelas
    3m3 minutes ago

    I have just been kicked out of #QT because you can allegedly see too much skin. His (It’s?) insane #Auspol

  50. PatriciaKarvelas
    ‏Verified account @PatsKarvelas
    3m3 minutes ago

    I have just been kicked out of #QT because you can allegedly see too much skin. His insane #Auspol

    And its only Monday …

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