The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.
Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.
UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.
briefly,
The Libs live to be in Government. I’d say another worsening Newspoll and Morrison will be where no Lib Leader would want to be. Between his MPs and the white cars of Government.
Country GDP comparative over time.
https://dms.licdn.com/playback/C4D05AQGq2LR7cpxqUg/b40074d0d4074abf9a834bc212da8597/feedshare-mp4_3300-captions-thumbnails/1507940147251-drlcss?e=1542078000&v=beta&t=0vRoYJmAt_sktbj-PIrXj2lL4RPnSuGNEmNFZEqdmEw
Curtin won 58.2 in 1943, wartime obviously. Won the Senate too.
LR
I listened to a couple of interviews on local radio from people who run the food networks – I had much the same questions.
There didn’t seem to be any investigation as to why so many people can’t afford food (which is not really expensive, particularly as both organisations interviewed said rice and pasta were their staples).
If it’s poor financial management, let’s provide financial counselling; if it’s lack of culinary skills, let’s provide that (although in that case giving them a bag of rice is a bit meaningless anyway).
If people are really in need, particularly in the short term, of course they should be helped. But both organisations seemed to have a ‘give the man a fish’ mentality.
Liberals will always be liberals until they shed their big corporation right wing and religion fanatics
‘He backed down on issues that didn’t mean much to him, defusing them. ‘
The question is why he backed down on anything, if he thought Latham wasn’t a threat.
@Nath
We are not at war, only dumb USA thinks we are due to China excuse.
Zoidlord
You can tell you are talking Australian politics 🙂
You got that correct thats for sure.
I think one of the previous posters nailed it 100%. There are rational ‘save the furniture’ moves when its clear the incumbent is going to get belted and there is low downside… id put replacing Hawke, Gilliard and Abbott in that category.
Then you get the ‘we dont like him’ cases but on whom the public havent given up entirely yet… here there is significant downside probability. Replacing Rudd in 2010 and Turnbull now, in the absence of some universally liked figure, end up costing big time.
I agree that Dutton would be even worse for the libs. Bishop would have been the better furniture move, but i guess little point in replacing Turnbull with her to those that hated him. But i do think once the spill motion passed that those 40 who supported Turnbull made a big miscalc in going for ScoMo over Bish
zoom….the idea might make us smile, and they might be tempted by Frydenberg but the country will not elect an unknown quantity as PM and they will throw out any party that tried to impose an unknown. Consider the trouble Morrison has got himself into trying create a profile/recognition. He registers as a fraud.
The Libs would be an even greater laughing stock if they try another blank face.
zoomster
says:
Monday, November 12, 2018 at 1:10 pm
‘He backed down on issues that didn’t mean much to him, defusing them. ‘
The question is why he backed down on anything, if he thought Latham wasn’t a threat.
______________________________
He had been in office for 8 years. The polls were not great. This was around the time of the ‘mean and tricky’ assessment. Yet at the election he managed a near 2% swing to him and a gain of 5 seats. After 8 years of incumbency it was a brilliant result for him. Played Latham like an absolute chump.
Asha Leu:
[‘If this Newspoll was replicated in a federal election, it would be an absolutely historic victory.’]
Historically the gap in the 2PP narrows once an election is called, but will probably settle around 52.5:47.5, taking into account that a Tampa-like incident doesn’t occur.
You’re close about Fraser in ’75. The Tories 2PP was 55.70, a 7.40 swing, taking 30 seats from Labor.
booleanbach @ #217 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 6:39 am
You can find Rowe’s stuff on his work Twitter account.
https://twitter.com/roweafr
guytaur @ #265 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 8:11 am
Switching to only public funding for the formal part of the political system (candidates and parties) is the easy part.
The hard part is what to do about 3rd party advertising. How do we limit what plutocrats, corporations, the local chapter of the NRA, etc, can spend on propaganda without seriously limiting the free speech of other, and typically less powerful and less cashed up, 3rd parties? A fiendish problem, especially in the era of a global internet, when the propaganda can all be done via offshore companies/entities/websites.
Greensborough Growler @ #390 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 11:21 am
The problems they face run much deeper than who is leader. Voters know that now, post-Mal.
So the voters will ask two questions about a Bishop leadership: Can she hold onto it if she wins the election (i.e. will the RWNJs in the coalition move to destabilise and get rid of her relatively soon after the election)? And will her leadership significantly change her party’s basic policy suite?
If voters think the answer is to either, let alone both, of those is no, then they won’t reward a Bishop leadership.
“If the backbench, even some ministers, thinks she may save some of them, they’d overlook her somewhat moderate reputation, self-preservation being the imperative of all parliamentarians.”
I think you underestimate how crazy the crazies are. I think they believe ‘the silent majority’ and ‘mainstream australia’ will flock to them once they are in charge. In abbott’s mind he would have won the last election in a landslide. These are people who think the catholic church has low attendance because Vatican II dropped the latin mass, modernised the liturgy, and got clergy to take on more of a tolerant social service and pluralist outlook rather than prayer/devotion and authoritarian arbiter of morals role. They are such vile people that the only people in their social circles are as crazy as they are, so they think they are normal and mainstream. They’d rather blow the LNP up than be pragmatic and have their eye to a period in opposition when they can purge the infidel in their ranks and make the party of far right organisation – i.e. unelectable. More strength to them I say.
Star presenter Alan Jones missed his 2GB radio breakfast show this morning, due to ill health.
2GB radio host Chris Smith filled in for the popular shock jock this morning, and kicked-off the two-hour show by telling listeners that Mr Jones was not feel well and resting.
Guess he choked on his Coco Pops after reading the the latest Newspoll – hasn’t it gone well :)))
JM
You are spot on about the hard part. I suggest we just do out best and realise that best will not stop everything.
This is indeed an area where we should not pursue the perfect over the good. Like it or not we are in a more international media landscape now.
And Latham managed to hand the Senate to Howard. So what a disaster he was.
nath says:
Monday, November 12, 2018 at 1:07 pm
Curtin won 58.2 in 1943, wartime obviously. Won the Senate too.
Curtin was the greatest we’ve had…. the foremost among the very best….he made modern Australia possible and held us together at the moment of greatest peril.
He was reluctant at first, but only from modesty. He was courageous not only by nature but because circumstances demanded it. He was an example for us all.
Of course, Curtin never dressed in anything other than a 3-piece suit. He wanted to show his respect to voters. He would never have sunk to the antics of the Abbotts and the Morrisons. He believed in Australians and in our potential.
The Tory fleas that would stand in his shoes are an embarrassing contrast, quite frankly.
EVERY time the LNP are in trouble with the public, they turn to security as a way out.
They have wound up the spring so tight with legislation after legislation taking away our privacy and freedom.
It seems to be the only arrow they have in their quiver. All other policies are either ineffective or on the nose or anathema to decent people.
Just pathetic.
nath @ #415 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 1:21 pm
Well, I just hope he does a reverse ferret on Pauline Hanson and has such a blowback effect from NSW that he causes her to lose a Senate seat at the election! Definitely not to gain any more, that’s for sure.
Absolutely Briefly. If only the people had passed the 1944 referendum. Curtin would have made us much closer to a Socialist nation, a more equitable nation and would have reduced the suffering of Indigenous Australians that endured for decades because he could not legislate on their behalf.
Curtin was of course, a Socialist, a member of the VSP in his youth.
JM – Thanks, life is good again.
Alex Turnbull is laying all the ground work for a new moderate Liberal centrist Party. Bishop woulld be a natural Leader of such a group in today’s climate. Why wouldn’t she take up that option of leading a group of moderate Libs interested in Climate Change and getting refugees off Nauru and promoting gender equality if the alternative was being a nobody in a troglodyte Party that has no prospects of Governing.
Jones and Hadleys influence has been diminishing for a while now.The Libs however still keep taking their orders.
“And Latham managed to hand the Senate to Howard. So what a disaster he was.”
latham was and is a disaster, but he’s the FRWNJ’s disaster now. enjoy.
& Howard used his senate majority to push through SerfChoices and undid his government to the extent that he lost his own seat. Every time I see the media fawning over the little desiccated scroat when he’s out and about makes me think – “but he’d the PM who lost his own seat”. had it not been for dodgy electoral boundaries that saw him retain government with <49% of the TPP, Howard would have been a one-termer, and had it not been for Tampa and 9/11 he'd been a two-termer at most. Latham saw him win another he should have lost, but then the undid himself – and latham unhinged himself after.
briefly says:
Monday, November 12, 2018 at 1:22 pm
nath says:
Monday, November 12, 2018 at 1:07 pm
Curtin won 58.2 in 1943, wartime obviously. Won the Senate too.
Curtin was the greatest we’ve had…. the foremost among the very best….he made modern Australia possible and held us together at the moment of greatest peril.
He was reluctant at first, but only from modesty. He was courageous not only by nature but because circumstances demanded it. He was an example for us all.
Of course, Curtin never dressed in anything other than a 3-piece suit. He wanted to show his respect to voters. He would never have sunk to the antics of the Abbotts and the Morrisons. He believed in Australians and in our potential.
The Tory fleas that would stand in his shoes are an embarrassing contrast, quite frankly.
When I first worked for a Federal MP, as a young fella – Parliament still had a typist pool. There was a venerable old soul who had typed for Curtain and Chifley – for the life of me I can’t recall her name but I still remember the awestruck nature of my conversations with her.
sustainable future
had it note been for dodgy electoral boundaries that saw him retain government with <49% of the TPP, Howard would have been a one-termer,
_____________________________
I agree with almost everything you said except for the above. It wasn't dodgy boundaries, just that the swing against Howard wasn't as big in marginal seats in 1998, but were massive in ALP seats and even moderate in some safe Coalition seats. The AEC don't create dodgy boundaries. It was just a quirk of the voting distribution in 98.
It’s interesting how much resources go into framing the Chinese.
But not Murdoch, Mafia, or Big Corporations:
https://www.watoday.com.au/world/asia/beijing-s-secret-plot-to-infiltrate-un-used-australian-insider-20181031-p50d2e.html
sustainable future:
[‘I think you underestimate how crazy the crazies are.’]
Not, I don’t. You’re right about the ‘crazies’ but they are not big in number; they’d rather cut off their nose to spite their face by throwing the next election in lieu of having a so-called moderate like Bishop lead them.
I still think that back-benchers will look after their hides, and if that means another coup, the ends, in their mind, will justify the means.
Nath – OK ‘dodgy’ is the wrong word. ‘undemocratic’ or ‘non-representative’ would be a better choice. I don’t like it when labor wins with <50% of TPP either. It should not happen. Howard claiming a mandate for and the democrats letting him legislate the GST and IR laws was just wrong.
sustainable future
says:
Monday, November 12, 2018 at 1:37 pm
Nath – OK ‘dodgy’ is the wrong word. ‘undemocratic’ or ‘non-representative’ would be a better choice. I don’t like it when labor wins with <50% of TPP either. It should not happen. Howard claiming a mandate for and the democrats letting him legislate the GST and IR laws was just wrong.
____________________
Oh ok. I thought you were bashing the AEC! I understand what you mean. And the GST end up costing the DEMS their existence, as well as getting rid of the radiant Natasha for Bartlett! Talk about throwing their future down the toilet! As well as the youth vote they were attracting.
From “The Age”
“About 240 Australians have also had their passports cancelled after it was established that they planned to travel overseas to fight with Islamic State. Another 200 foreign fighters are set to return to Australia in coming years”
Has this government got a vested interest in events such as in Melbourne this week?
GG:
[‘Alex Turnbull is laying all the ground work for a new moderate Liberal centrist Party.’]
And he’s offering to bankroll small-L candidates in seats such as Warringah, New England.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/11/alex-turnbull-would-fund-moderate-independents-to-fight-abbott-and-joyce
He’s got more balls than his old man.
Mavis
I think the crazies will keep going until they get the leadership. If they play the ‘our candidate or we blow up the party’ card, the backbenchers will have no choice but to back them or face even more destabilisation. Leaks abour Morrison over the next few weeks will tell us if it is on. They”d be mad to make the switch, but I think they might just be mad enough.
Natasha Stott Despoja, what a legend.
During her political career she also introduced 24 Private Member’s Bills on issues including paid maternity leave, the Republic, genetic privacy, stem cells, captioning, and same sex marriage.
Greensborough Growler @ #422 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 1:27 pm
Kim Wingerei* posits it might even be Turnbull senior.
via John Menadue
http://www.johnmenadue.com/kim-wingerei-the-turnbull-legacy-hour/
(* the article gives a brief bio)
Mavis, I’ll be pretty surprised if Sco-Mo crawls up to 47.5. We may be seeing peak Sco-Mo right now! Soon its going to be punch-up-in-the cockpit time.
guytaur @ #414 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 11:50 am
Agree. We have to do what we can.
booleanbach @ #421 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 11:57 am
I too need my daily dose of Rowe. 🙂
Greensborough Growler @ #422 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 11:57 am
Despite being a lifelong centre-lefty, I would be relieved to see a robust moderate centre-right party emerge. Whether a reformed Liberal party rising from the ashes, or a completely new entity, matters not, as long as they can suck votes away from the RWNJs and back toward the political centre.
Bishop leading such a party might initially be somewhat attractive to voters, but her basic incompetence has been hidden by her portfolio (FM) and party position (deputy leader), and it would soon emerge (again). She is also not quite as moderate as she would like us to believe. She will happily continue throwing employees and those on social security off a cliff in a heartbeat, for example.
She might save a few seats, but neither her nor the party are fit for their intended purpose, and it is way too late to fix that before the next election, and maybe not for 2-3 elections. Some serious purging and regrouping is required, and that takes time.
sustainable future:
[‘They”d be mad to make the switch, but I think they might just be mad enough.’]
They should be tested for mad cow disease; their denial of their predicament is palpable.
Rossmcg………….I agree that Shane Wright totally destroyed the main thrust of the West’s scare headline of a few days ago regarding negative gearing. Mind you, they were careful to put, “according to the Liberal Party” – in small print admittedly, in the scare headline. I wonder how much longer Stokes will tolerate Wright writing – to pun? He is far too far from the main anti-Labor gig in most of the rest of the West to survive me thinks.
PVO in the Oz
Today’s Newspoll has once again confirmed the sheer lunacy of removing Malcolm Turnbull from the prime ministership: a self-inflicted wound Liberal MPs will tangibly feel come the next election.
The falling numbers also highlight that Scott Morrison’s marketing strategy — selling himself as an everyday Aussie bloke — is proving as successful as his ‘Where the bloody hell are you’ campaign when heading up Tourism Australia.
The primary vote for the government is down, as is the two party vote. A two party vote of 55-45, favouring the Opposition, could see Labor break its record 1983 victory under Bob Hawke, which delivered a 13 seat majority.
sf
I told an unsuccessful Labor candidate after 2004 that Labor would win the next two elections – because Howard with a 39-37 Senate majority would overstep and it would be his undoing. I was right – juuuuust got there for the second election.
You are right about the hard right Libs. They truly believe that their party’s problem is they have drifted too far from the right . Their entire ethos is to regain all the voters ‘lost’ to One Nation et al. Of course in a country with preferential voting this is a nonsense as all those votes pretty much come back to them anyway.
It is funny how we can all see they’d do better under Bishop, but they can’t ! I fully expect that if Labor win, Tony Abbott and Barnaby Joyce will both be back in the saddle.
I hope you’re right, anton. Perhaps the electorate’s had enough of the crazies and will teach them a lesson, rescuing Pig-Iron’s Liberal Party from its move to the hard-Right.
antonbruckner11 @ #436 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 1:46 pm
and don’t forget to PANIC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0GW0Vnr9Yc
Sceptic @ #343 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 12:08 pm
Of course. Anyone who believes in sky fairies has a form of mental deficiency. Those who believe in the ‘end times’ are plainly psychotic.
And in NOT surprising news…………
.
“Children to return to Nauru
Scott Morrison says child refugees relocated from Nauru to Australia for medical attention will be sent back to the offshore processing centre.”
https://outline.com/c27rzG
nath
Make up your mind – either Latham was an easy beat or Howard was a political genius. If the former, Howard didn’t need to make a single concession to defeat him.
JM @ #437 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 1:49 pm
This I totally agree with. For the sake of hyperbole, she represents little more to me than a clothes horse, and then for someone several years her junior.
Up north
It won’t be a baseball bat election. It will simply be the two fingered salute. Voters will have no regrets or be tentative about their mark on the ballot paper.
The Liberals will then have to elect a Leader who remakes the Party. He or she will need at least one and a half terms to decide how to build a progressive centre Party.
The next Liberal PM is probably not sitting in the current Parliament. But they still have to pick from the younger brigade. I think Christian Porter – if he wins his seat – is the next alternative PM.
It will be an interesting interlude in political history.