Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A world of hurt for the Coalition from Newspoll, with voting intention deep into crisis territory and Scott Morrison’s standing continuing to decline.

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.

Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.

UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  5. Paul Barratt
    ‏
    People with mental illness and lone wolf terrorists are not a threat to our way of life : they simply present a risk to individuals.

    The risk to our way of life is politicians who see acts of violence as a political opportunity, and set about changing the way we do things.

  6. I wondered this, too.

    Dr James Farrow
    29m29 minutes ago

    This is a good question and I’m not seeing much press coverage of it. Why was @ScottMorrisonMP taking photo ops and irresponsibly talking up terrorism and fuelling hate against Islam instead of being in France promoting peace? #auspol

  7. Thanks BK; take care with the brown snake.

    Heads up on 4 Corners tonight, extended to an hour – the Guthrie episode.

    From BK’s Mordor link on Alan Jones:

    All eyes on Four Corners tonight. It already looks like a cracker, and Sarah Ferguson has been overheard telling colleagues she has had great fun putting it together. The program is said to be so good, featuring as it does interviews with sacked managing director ­Michelle ­Guthrie and former chairman Justin Milne, who resigned, that it has been extended to one hour.

    So sensitive is the program that acting managing director David Anderson has relinquished his role as editor in chief for the program, an unprecedented move.

    The ABC said: “The acting managing director, the editorial director, the news director and board members were not involved in any way in the commissioning or editorial oversight of the program.” The national broadcaster has given ultimate editorial responsibility to John Lyons, a former journalist at The Australian who is now head of investigative and in-depth journalism.

    Bit of a seque, but here’s an interesting piece which gives some insights into John Lyons (et al), apropos Middle east reporting and the lobbying by pro-Israel advocates, which interestingly concludes with this eye popper, from Colin Rubenstein / AIJAC:

    “I would call on those who oppose our views, including Mr Lyons, to engage with different views in a democratic, tolerant and constructive spirit, rather than demand, as he appears to be doing, that those who disagree with him be silenced or suppressed.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/jul/29/pro-israel-advocates-in-australia-targeted-three-journalists-new-book-claims

  8. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol – depressing, in parts, as it is.

    Don got it right – Thanks for your wonderful work BK. You are the best.

    One item, in particular, caught my attention.

    Lyn Bender tells us why we should no longer accept substandard aged care. Soon enough, we’ll need it, too.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/aged-care-done-dirt-cheap,12075

    We should no longer accept substandard aged care. Soon enough, we’ll need it, too.

    No one I know has said that they are looking forward to living in an aged care institution.

    One resident announces:

    “This a prison. You are all in prison.”

    Let me tell you about a man named Jed Terry. Terry had been a fireman – I never knew quite why he was in aged care but he was, to me, relatively “with it”.
    On the occasion of a projected “howdy do” galah something or other with stalls and singing and dancing – Terry offered himself as the centre attraction of a 💋Kissing Booth.💋 This advanced thinking failed to get the approval of a stick in the mud management.
    Speaking about prisons – Terry could not quite figure out how to open the doors to freedom, and, using the Fire Management training of his previous existence, he alerted me to his plan. “I’ll sound the fire alarm and when the Fireys arrive I’ll make a break for it and be gone before anybody knows” quoth he.
    Terry’s plan didn’t come to fruition and Terry continued to patrol the corridors talking to anybody who might stop and chat.
    My wife left that particular Aged Care residence soon thereafter (frying pan into fire) and I don’t know how Terry fared – apart from the inevitability that comes to us all.
    Rest in peace Terry and all the others with whom I shared eight years in Aged Care.

    Good morning all. ☮

  9. long time lurker first time poster, after a long day at Villiers Bretonneux and the ww1 battlefields of France what better way to catch up with the news at home than the newspoll result.

  10. “Heads up on 4 Corners tonight, extended to an hour – the Guthrie episode.”
    My bet is it will be a whitewash. The ABC has no credibility these days.

  11. lizzie says:
    Monday, November 12, 2018 at 7:14 am
    Eureka?
    There is quite a difference between war (diplomacy by other means), counterterrorism (as in public safety and security agencies cooperation, special forces, armed police, police), policing …
    The Brookings Institute had a piece now some countries are better at it than others, which mentioned Canada: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/11/02/when-fighting-domestic-terrorism-you-get-what-you-pay-for/ .
    PollyTICs in Washminster/ Versailles on Lake Blwxyz Griffin seem to have trouble to sort the why (such as radicalisation, the Prime Muppet musings over location of embassies and consulates) from the how and the what (would good look like) …

  12. KayJay,

    At 75 and with health problems (I have a wonderful carer) I am terrified of ending up in Aged Care. I saw how quickly my active grandparents went downhill when “put” into a nursing home because there was no-one to care for them.

    Likewise my father didn’t last long either.

    My mother, however, is till living with my sister, and will turn 104 in February. I put it down to that love, care and devoted attention from my 73 yo sister (and her husband).

    There is nothing beats “staying at home”.

  13. Interesting perspective on the election date from Sean Kelly. He thinks it could be at the end of January, 2 months before the NSW State election in March. Sounds feasible to me. A frictionless election campaign where Scott could make lots of reassuring sounds, signifying nothing, get lots of Aussie Bloke photo ops and up the feel good factor for the Coalition.

    All a chimera, of course. However, the sort of thing that appeals to ScaMo.

  14. C@tmomma @ #212 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 7:51 am

    Interesting perspective on the election date from Sean Kelly. He thinks it could be at the end of January, 2 months before the NSW State election in March. Sounds feasible to me. A frictionless election campaign where Scott could make lots of reassuring sounds, signifying nothing, get lots of Aussie Bloke photo ops and up the feel good factor for the Coalition.

    All a chimera, of course. However, the sort of thing that appeals to ScaMo.

    and C@t, in the middle of what is predicted to be a long hot dry summer. Campaigning in January sounds like a fool’s errand to me – a lot of people are simply turned off – but fools abound.

  15. Thanks also (continuing) to William for the service and in particular for his headline remarks to this thread.

    To wit –

    The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.

    Red rag to a bull, I bothered.
    Will I take the proffered advice in future – maybe.
    At the end of an article filled with lots of the best words is the following gem –

    Promoted stories
    Don’t buy the wrong gold.

    Nah. Fuggetit. I’m as right for gold as I’ll ever be.
    Whose turn to put the kettle on Muriel ❓ ☕

  17. ItzaDream @ #213 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 7:54 am

    C@tmomma @ #212 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 7:51 am

    Interesting perspective on the election date from Sean Kelly. He thinks it could be at the end of January, 2 months before the NSW State election in March. Sounds feasible to me. A frictionless election campaign where Scott could make lots of reassuring sounds, signifying nothing, get lots of Aussie Bloke photo ops and up the feel good factor for the Coalition.

    All a chimera, of course. However, the sort of thing that appeals to ScaMo.

    and C@t, in the middle of what is predicted to be a long hot dry summer. Campaigning in January sounds like a fool’s errand to me – a lot of people are simply turned off – but fools abound.

    Maybe that’s what Morrison is hoping. Don’t mention Climate Change, say things about our beaut Aussie summers, where people spend their holidays lazing about on the beach, getting a tan. Nippers will be in full swing. Cricket, Tennis, Golf. The possibilities for a Seinfeldian election campaign about nothing are endless! Oh, except, Bill Shorten, Boo! And Labor will raise your taxes, Boo! 🙂

  18. For some reason, for the past week or so, the links to the cartoons in BK’s news post have been missing. Just the cartoons, all the other links are there.
    Any suggestions, besides my having no sense of humour, so they would be a waste of space?
    I really miss David Rowe and his colleagues.

  19. Quite happy to see a 55/45 poll. Not sure it will last for very long, but falling back to a steady 53/47 would still be OK.
    And, i just cannot see the Libs changing leaders once more before the next election; no matter how dire the polls.
    There is no one who can save them; certainly not Dutton and not even JBish would be good for anything except perhaps saving a bit of worthless furniture.

  20. Well, well, well.

    Top Saudi intelligence officials close to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman asked a small group of businessmen last year about using private companies to assassinate Iranian enemies of the kingdom, according to three people familiar with the discussions.

    The Saudis inquired at a time when Prince Mohammed, then the deputy crown prince and defense minister, was consolidating power and directing his advisers to escalate military and intelligence operations outside the kingdom. Their discussions, more than a year before the killing of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, indicate that top Saudi officials have considered assassinations since the beginning of Prince Mohammed’s ascent.

    Saudi officials have portrayed Mr. Khashoggi’s death as a rogue killing ordered by an official who has since been fired. But that official, Maj. Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri, was present for a meeting in March 2017 in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, where the businessmen pitched a $2 billion plan to use private intelligence operatives to try to sabotage the Iranian economy.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/11/world/middleeast/saudi-iran-assassinations-mohammed-bin-salman.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  21. Happy Christmas news as Federal funds to Foodbank, Australia’s largest food charity, are on notice of another cut.

    But in the third cut to its federal funding since 2014, Foodbank chief executive Brianna Casey said the government was now asking the organisation to absorb another cut, which would leave it with less than $430,000 a year. Three years ago, the organisation received $1.5m a year to do the same job.

    I am wondering how much Morrison’s little airforce jaunt around Qld just cost.

    Labor is onto it.

    The Labor leader, Bill Shorten, has picked up the organisation’s case, writing to Scott Morrison in an effort to reverse the decision.

    “Foodbank uses this modest amount to secure more than $8m worth of essential food for hungry Australians. All of this is now at risk,” he writes, in the letter seen by Guardian Australia.

    “Your government’s cut will have a major impact on Foodbank’s supplies, and risks compromising their ability to distribute emergency food relief during natural disasters.

    “I am genuinely surprised by this mean and foolish decision.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/12/coalition-cuts-funding-for-foodbank-charity-by-323000-a-year

  23. They dress it up with b.s. like “keeping economy strong” and pretend that dividing the same money over 3 orgs instead of 2 is being generous. Either the minister has no idea how budgeting works or he’s mean and devious. Take your pick.

    Earlier this month, the social services minister Paul Fletcher announced $4.5m would be allocated to three organisations – Foodbank, Secondbite and Ozharvest – as part of a $204.5m emergency support funding package.

    “This funding enables community organisations to get food supplies to many Australians impacted by crisis, including those currently doing it tough in the bush, Fletcher said.

    “And we can pay for these vital grants by keeping our economy strong and the federal budget on the path to surplus.”

    Guardian Australia understands the $4.5m had originally been budgeted over three years for two organisations, and the government is now spreading it across three, hence the sudden cut to Foodbank’s allocation.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/12/coalition-cuts-funding-for-foodbank-charity-by-323000-a-year

  24. Snap lizzie. I was going to take the out-takes you did, about their double speak, but went for Bill instead. So we got it covered both ways. 😉

  25. Happy Christmas news as Federal funds to Foodbank, Australia’s largest food charity, are on notice of another cut.

    Seriously, the timing could not be worse. Our local Foodbank here says xmas is their busiest time when they get the most referrals.

  28. ausdavo (AnonBlock)
    Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 7:51 am
    Comment #209

    Thanks for your comment. I can only hope for the best for you (a lot like thoughts and prayers).
    I don’t have any clever ideas – apart from lots of family support on a continued and daily basis.
    Advice from one nurse to me was to either take my wife home when possible (never) or bring home to my wife – which is what I did.
    The folk who provide the activities (now retitled lifestyle) often do excellent work – sadly of no use to those bedridden although the dogs programs are wonderful with residents having a happy little fur love magnet sitting on the bed (or chest) in playful/licking mode.
    Nursing home staff are a microcosm of daily life. Some are wonderful, some are the other end of the scale and some are just trying to get by the best way they can.
    We can’t know what out cognition would be when arriving in a nursing home – if the brain is nowhere we won’t care and so on. I guess we better do the same – do the best we can today for ourselves and our friends, carers and family.
    I wonder if some sort of training could be undertaken to prepare oneself for aged care. That would presuppose future CVA or heart attacks or the like.
    I dunno – hope for the best and I will now close (owing to the fact that I have no clever answers).

    Every gambler knows
    That the secret to survivin’
    Is knowin’ what to throw away
    And knowin’ what to keep
    ‘Cause every hand’s a winner
    And every hand’s a loser
    And the best that you can hope for is to die
    in your sleep.

    Kenny Rogers – The Gambler (with lyrics)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6X7Sx62plCw

  29. Fess

    Add drought to Christmas and ScoMo’s really making friends.

    …I did enjoy C@t’s suggestion that the only thing left for him is to do a naked streak across a cricket pitch. He wouldn’t get admirers, but he’d get some attention!

  30. ausdavo @ #211 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 7:51 am

    KayJay,

    At 75 and with health problems (I have a wonderful carer) I am terrified of ending up in Aged Care. I saw how quickly my active grandparents went downhill when “put” into a nursing home because there was no-one to care for them.

    Likewise my father didn’t last long either.

    My mother, however, is till living with my sister, and will turn 104 in February. I put it down to that love, care and devoted attention from my 73 yo sister (and her husband).

    There is nothing beats “staying at home”.

    No doubt, but I admire greatly the relatives who take on that demanding job.

    I’ve stipulated that I must have my own room, radio and tv, and good internet access when the time comes to move to aged care. I don’t want to burden a relative with the job of looking after me when I can no longer do the job myself.

    Other than that and good meals, I would be content, I think.

    When I was a young bloke, me and my mates reckoned we wanted to die at 95, shot by a jealous husband as we climbed out the bedroom window. 😉

  31. booleanbach (Block)
    Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 8:09 am
    Comment #215

    For some reason, for the past week or so, the links to the cartoons in BK’s news post have been missing. Just the cartoons, all the other links are there.
    Any suggestions, besides my having no sense of humour, so they would be a waste of space?
    I really miss David Rowe and his colleagues.

    Are there no picture showing ❓
    What are you using to read the blog ❓
    F’rinstance
    Desktop – Windows 10 – Firefox/Chrome ❓

  32. It would be nice if the States could step in and make up the Foodbank shortfall, just to tide us over until the Federal election next year when we will most likely get a less mean spirited and vindictive party in power.

  33. lizzie:

    The war on charities by two of our most deeply religious PMs, Abbott and Morrison seems at odds with what Jesus would have done.

  34. Sean Kelly in the smh makes the point I have been thinking about. Namely, if you knew you only had nine months in the job as PM and you would never be there again, what would you do ?

    Surely you would want to be remembered as more than a footnote or an answer on trivia nights about short serving PMs?

    Making such a big thing about the Armistice Centenary and then shadowing from your VIP jet an empty bus while it travels around Queensland rather than going to France and Belgium just seems bizarre.

    I agree that it is probably too late for the Liberals to change leaders again – but I am sure had Bishop been given the opportunity she would have at least looked Prime Ministerial for nine months.

    I think jenauthor summed it up – being laughed at is the worst possible outcome for a politician, far worse than being hated. And Australians everywhere I go are laughing AT Morrison – he is considered a joke.

    I mentioned it before but I remember Lindsay Thompson getting the poisoned chalice after they shafted Rupert Hamer. He acted with great dignity in the office of Premier even though he must have known that 27 years of Liberal rule were coming to an end in 1982. As Police Minister he had personally delivered a ransom in the Faraday Primary School kidnapping case eight years before – which was a venture into possible danger by someone who felt they needed to take direct responsibility – and from that time on he retained the respect of the public. After losing he then showed new Premier elect John Cain around the Premier’s offices and briefed him on the job.

    What a contrast to our current PM.

  35. lizzie:

    I did enjoy C@t’s suggestion that the only thing left for him is to do a naked streak across a cricket pitch. He wouldn’t get admirers, but he’d get some attention!

    People might well be willing to re-elect him on the condition that he never, ever does it again!

  36. Confessions @ #224 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 8:23 am

    Happy Christmas news as Federal funds to Foodbank, Australia’s largest food charity, are on notice of another cut.

    Seriously, the timing could not be worse. Our local Foodbank here says xmas is their busiest time when they get the most referrals.

    Well how do you expect the poor government to fund important things like their $30m
    gift to Rupert’s Fox TV if they don’t make cuts to unnecessary things like this? It’s much more important to give Rupert our tax money than to feed starving people…

  38. don (Block)
    Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 8:29 am
    Comment #227

    I’ve stipulated that I must have my own room, radio and tv, and good internet access when the time comes to move to aged care. I don’t want to burden a relative with the job of looking after me when I can no longer do the job myself.

    Other than that and good meals, I would be content, I think.

    The two aged care facilities I am familiar with provided excellent cuisine.

    The requirements you describe would suit me just fine. I would not miss the lawn mowing and could take time to peruse BK’s daily news offerings.
    Time to gaze into the crystal ball to ascertain whether the brain box will hold out until I become one with the universe. 😎

  40. President Trump’s brand of “America First” nationalism was repudiated on Sunday as leaders from around the globe gathered to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the armistice that ended World War I and reaffirm the international bonds that have once again come under strain.

    Stone-faced and unmoved, the American leader listened as President Emmanuel Macron of France used the ceremony at the Arc de Triomphe to denounce self-interested nationalism and extol the sort of globalism and international institutions that Mr. Trump has spent the last two years pulling the United States away from.

    “Patriotism is the exact opposite of nationalism,” Mr. Macron said in a speech on a dreary, rain-soaked day. “Nationalism is a betrayal of patriotism by saying, ‘our interest first, who cares about the others?’ ”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/11/us/politics/macron-trump-paris-wwi.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

    Trump had a much warmer greeting for Putin however.

  42. Rocket Rocket:

    I can only agree.

    Lindsay Thompson was well before my time, but I imagine the big difference was that he was self-aware enough to realize he was unlikely to get re-elected, accepted that fact, and simply focused on minimizing the damage and governing as well as he could for that time.

    Morrison, on the other hand, is blatantly desperate to get re-elected. Instead of putting his efforts into the sorts of boring day-to-day governance that would be unlikely to to deliver an election win but would probably minimize the Coalition’s losses considerably, not to mention allowing him to go out with some dignity and public respect, he’s flailing about with ill-considered PR stunts and captain calls and general stupidities in increasingly desperate attempts to change the narrative. The more the polls fail to move in his direction, the more panicked he becomes, and, from what we’ve seen so far, Morrison does not seem to be a man who performs well under pressure.

    It’s like a slow-motion version of Rudd’s 2013 election campaign.

  43. What joyful numbers to start the week. I’d give my right arm to be fly on the wall at the next party room meeting. Watching them realise that Turnbull was actually propping up their vote (I know a few people who were willing to give the Libs the benefit of the doubt because they hopes mal would eventually stand up against the nutters; they now have no doubt and will not vote lib until they move back to the centre) and that Mr shouty cap two thumbs up is a disaster who the electorate have realised is a bullshit artist. The infighting as they head to electoral oblivion will be joy to see. The dutton camp will believe they’d be polling better had he won and I think Morrison is going to forced to call an election early at some stage to head off another spill. Dutton knows he will lose his seat as things stand, but will probably believe he can survive if he is PM. Most of all, he wants his name in the history books as PM and even a dullard like him must know this is his only shot.

    I just wish shorten was a bit more confidence-inspiring. Then again, Howard lasted over a decade, and he had the personality of damp and musty cardboard.

  44. Sustainable future

    Rudd was very popular with lots of kerb appeal, but look what happened to him.
    I think I’d rather have the tortoise than the hare.

  45. more spiking the wells prior to the election (losss)

    Peter Costello has been reappointed chairman of the Australian government’s $149 billion sovereign wealth fund for a further five years, in a move certain to raise the ire of Labor.

    The Future Fund has also added former Treasury secretary and wealth management veteran John Fraser to its board of guardians, as the Morrison government locks in key economic jobs ahead of next year’s election…

    The government will also announce on Monday that John Poynton, a West Australian businessman who in May replaced James Packer on the board of Crown Resorts, has been reappointed to the Future Fund board for five years from February 4, 2019….

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/government-reappoints-peter-costello-as-future-fund-chairman-20181110-h17r6p

  47. Thanks for the Sam Maiden link BK

    Some progress appears to have been made, what after only 7 years or so with the CPG experts…

    It’s always worth remembering in any Newspoll analysis that the preferred PM figures are largely a waste of time. It favours the incumbent.

    But there are still some areas of major progress required…

    What matters is the primary vote – how people are going to actually vote.

    Sloppy thinking or sloppy writing? Does it really matter, for those for whom political writing is supposed to be their professional, expert job, this is woeful commentary.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/11/11/newspoll-scott-morrison/

  48. Lao:

    I knew the govt would shore up its appointments to boards and other institutions in preparation for their looming election loss.

    Labor should seek advice about how to terminate them, esp do-nothing incompetents like Costello who just suck away at taxpayer funding without actually offering anything in return.

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