The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.
Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.
UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.
Come on Scotty, ya got 2 1/2 weeks to match Truffles. I know ya can do it.
.
.
Newspoll: 57-43; Nielsen: 56-44
Monday, November 30, 2009
https://www.pollbludger.net/2009/11/30/newspoll-57-43-nielsen-56-44/
Morrison may suffer the same ignominy as Barrie Unsworth but without the dour demeanour and wearing of heavy knitwear
US Vice-President Mike Pence will continue the Trump administration’s assault on China’s “authoritarianism and aggression”, using a speech in Australia’s backyard to business chiefs to outline the US’s rival vision for the Indo-Pacific that extols the superiority of private investment over state-controlled funding to build regional infrastructure.
With Donald Trump opting to skip the East Asia and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summits this week, Mr Pence and the President’s hardline national security adviser John Bolton will travel to Singapore and Papua New Guinea to push back against Beijing’s attempt to assert its influence on both economic and security fronts….
In an opinion piece for The Washington Post published on the weekend, Mr Pence wrote that “Businesses, not bureaucrats, will drive our efforts, because governments and state-owned enterprises are incapable of building lasting prosperity…
The Vice-President will base himself in Cairns during APEC, flying to Port Moresby each day for events. He will arrive on Friday and meet Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack…”
https://www.afr.com/news/us-vicepresident-mike-pence-to-throw-down-the-gauntlet-to-china-during-png-visit-20181111-h17r90
Confessions @ #239 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 8:42 am
Mr Cosgrove eyeing Putin, Mrs Cosgrove eyeing Trump. There’s a team that works well together. 🙂
At the same time into their respective Liberal leaderships, Alexander Downer had better Newspoll numbers than Morrison 😀
C@t:
I thought I recognised those two. I figured the man (Cosgrove) was in the Trump Administration though.
Absent some outrageous event, an ALP victory at tbe next federal election is assured. Dumping Turnbull widens the range of victory… i never thought 90 seats was realistic with Turnbull at the helm, still think its its a big ask but this kind of ScoMo polling makes it more probable for sure.
Shorten and co should just keep doing what they are doing, mostly the coalition are doing it for them. Im at a point where its the senate and localised reps results (Dutton, Joyce losing their seats… dare to dream of Abbott being done by a credible independent) that should be focused on if possible?
Sustainable future:
As much as people may have been going off of Turnbull in the final year or so of his term, and as poor as his political judgement often was, I think he was still pretty well regarded by the electorate – certainly moreso than the rest of his party. Like Rudd in 2010, the message from the polling was less “we want you gone, now!” and more “get your shit together or we’ll vote you out at the election.” I reckon you’re correct in that more than a few people were still supporting the Coalition in the hopes that Leather Jacket Turnbull would rear his head once more and take control.
It’s clear that many in caucus were labouring under the delusion that Turnbull was what was bringing down their vote – that same tired belief that the policies weren’t the problem, it was the salesman – but now it must be abundantly clear that Turnbull was the least of their issues. But I can’t imagine that will stop them from laying the blame for the present crisis on the new salesman.
The irony is that by going for the “compromise” candidate, they’ve chosen someone who isn’t very highly regarded by either the party’s far-right (since he “betrayed” Abbott) nor the moderates (since Morrison is ultimately a conservative fundamentalist, albeit one who’s conservatism is tempered by shameless populism.)
This Newspoll is, IMO, a worse omen than the 45s and 44s they were getting right after the coup. Then, at least, it could be rationalized as primarily being the result of the public’s shock over Turnbull being dumped, which would likely settle over time. This, on the other hand, is simply the electorate’s increasingly savage verdict on the performance on Prime Minister Scott Morrison, which has them facing a historic thrashing despite everything Morrison’s done to try to seize the agenda, a pretty poor week for the Labor Party, and a terrorist attack. They must be terrified.
I know the accepted wisdom is that things will likely tighten back up to 52 or 53 by the election, but these are not usual times. I would not be surprised if this ends up being a landslide on par with Fraser’s 1975 victory.
The latest Newspoll underlines my feeling that Morrison was the worst possible candidate the Libs could have chosen as PM. in an era when voters are desperate for authenticity in their leaders, his desperate all-marketing-stunts-all-the-time approach is going down like a lead balloon.
It’s a stark illumination of the divide between political careerists in both major parties, and the rest of us. They still think everything can be solved by clever marketing, rather than policies that address real and pressing issues.
To follow up on that thought – the major parties do themselves no favours by resisting reform of political donation laws. Feeling shackled to your donors leaves you unable to make the policy shifts that would actually address issues concerning the electorate. When the political tides change, you’re left high and dry.
Dutton would’ve been worse IMO and he was who they were trying to replace Turnbull with!
Betting odds – no leadership spill $1.14
– leadership spill $5.00
Good value @$5.00
Good Morning
BK
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/abbotsleigh-alumni-lead-march-in-support-of-equality-20181109-p50f4c.html
This shows exactly why the LNP is in such dire polling trouble. Just like with Climate Change. Reality holds more sway than belief. Those woman’s lived reality is they have seen the discrimination and reject it as has Australia with its vote in the Marriage Survey.
When Turnbull let the right have its way and do the survey it gave us a good snapshot of the state of play in the culture wars. The LNP are in the minority big time.
It could even explain why the Asylum Seeker plight on Nauru and Manus has changed. Just like with trying to take political advantage from the Melbourne Incident. The contrast between Labor and the LNP is stark and people do see the difference.
Yes Greens people I do see a difference on AS policy between Labor and the LNP.
The rumour I’ve heard about the election date is 11 May. Evidently the AEC has been told to prepare for that date. There are 6 months available to campaign….good.
Next sworn in government following the next election
$1.25 Labor
$3.50 LNP
Labor good value @ $1.25
Xoanon
I agree with you on donation reform. I think it all should be public funding. I do see the issue of new entrants to the political sphere is a problem that needs to be looked at. We managed to do it with the threshold before you could run. I am sure we can come up with a way to cater for that.
This is why I welcome this Labor Party platform on integrity and donations. Labor has gone further down this route than I expected and I respect them for that.
In fact this is the main reason I am voting Labor this election. I just hope they do Canada style media laws as well.
Then we will have debates on issues that people care about with lots less vested interests of the like of the fossil fuel type companies.
Confessions:
I thought that at the time, but I honestly wonder now. I mean, I definitely think Dutton would be worse as far as governance/policy goes (at least from a lefty perspective), but in terms of political competence and how he’s regarded by the public? Probably not.
He would be loathed by a good portion of the electorate, and would almost certainly be facing an loss of government, but he’d be unlikely to be a walking joke either. Say what you want about Dutton, but he’s not a man who invites much mockery, even from those who detest him.
The one thing Scott has to look forward to is that he will never surpass Tony & Malcolm with their more than 30 negative Newspolls in a row.!
Xoanon, are you named after the Doctor Who villain by any chance?
AL
Good point regarding Dutton. I think its why the right blames Malcolm Turnbull. Their guy did not get the gig.
Asha
“Xoanon, are you named after the Doctor Who villain by any chance?”
The Face of Evil. Though not so evil as it turned out – just misguided.
Asha:
Do you remember back when the Abbottobods were moving to replace Turnbull and Dutton decided he needed to increase his appeal, and set about smiling at everything? How he was ridiculed by some in the media for trying to show a side of him that was obviously unnatural. I can so see him as PM doing precisely what Morrison is doing and being ridiculed even more mercilessly. And remember we all thought Morrison was the preferable leader of the two until he actually was the leader and the spotlight that comes with it showed every inadequacy he has. It would’ve been the same with Dutton.
Xoanon – I have to pull you up on the lumping together of ‘major prties’ on donations reform = Labor introduced reforms only to have them reversed by the Libs. Labor has vowed to stop all foreign donations as well as real-time reporting and (I think) all donations over $1000 declared.
This is heaps better than we now have, or what the LIbs will do.
As the days pass, I’m feeling more hopeful that we’re actually nearing the end of this insane decade of revolving-door PMs and the related refusal to address climate change.
Now both parties have had a taste of how useless it is to change PMs rather than policies midstream, we might get action on climate change and, more generally, a realisation that policy development rather than marketing tricks is the way you earn longevity in power.
We can but hope.
Asha Leu
Dutton and his background indicate a viscous bully. Dutton wouldn’t last a day as PM before doubt and fear would prevail. The other members of the Federal LNP don’t even trust him. Look at the latest PM numbers. The LNP were prepared to risk all with Morrison rather than take a chance with Dutton.
I’m not a betting man but I find it incredible that you can still get $1.25 on Labor to win the next election
https://www.themandarin.com.au/100534-simon-birminghams-intervention-in-research-funding-is-not-unprecedented-but-dangerous/
Simon Birmingham
✔ @Birmo
Mr. Birminham may be sure but he is certainly not coming off as pretty with his catering to the boys in the backroom down the boozer attitude.
Now information has come to hand (no -Muriel not by means of jerkoffs) that grants are to be funneled to those projects that benefit Australia. The project central to this seems to be the means to establishing a Phantom Zone – a la Superman) whence those deemed an evil presence and a danger to 1950’s life may be banished.
This Zone would be supervised by the head of the Department for the Establishment of Continued
RakeoffsFinancial Stability of the Gummint.Pardonnez moi citoyens. I have been crawling under the house (not recommended for the elder gentleman) connecting a LAN cable. I’m feeling a little light header than usual.
Time for healthy mowing instead.
Au revoir. Maintenir les barricades.
Kakuru:
Indeed. I rewatched the Face of Evil just two months ago, as part of the marathon of the entire series I’ve been (very slowly) working my way through. I’ve come to the realization that Leela is probably my favorite Doctor Who companion ever – she’s just brilliant. Shame she gets such a piss-poor exit story.
Confessions:
That’s a fair point. I don’t think it would be anything close to the sort of mockery Morrison is receiving, however.
Roger @ #277 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 5:53 am
And Cory’s seen as a better chance than the Greens. 🙂
@climatecouncil tweets
Australia’s installed solar capacity set to double within two years to 18GW – enough to power 5.4 million homes! #solar #renewables via https://bit.ly/2OLLNbw https://twitter.com/climatecouncil/status/1061755564835983360/photo/1
Xoanon
‘To follow up on that thought – the major parties do themselves no favours by resisting reform of political donation laws’
Only one major party is resisting reform to political donation laws. Meanwhile, the ALP operates as if the reforms were already in place.
The Greens, in contrast, altered their own rules when a big donation came along, to make it retrospectively acceptable.
Barney
Those betting odds show the bookmakers view of the punters. PHON has better percentage of the vote than Bernadi’s Conservatives 🙂
“And Cory’s seen as a better chance than the Greens. ”
I think in terms of minor party “next government” betting odds, they are constructed in a way to maximise the chance of fools parting with their money rather than to reflect actual probabilities
Neither the Greens nor the Conservatives have better chance of winning government than the Second Coming occurring between now and the election (particularly with a Pentecostal PM)
Wow, Xoanon – you are fond of this ‘both major parties’ schtick.
Almost every example you’ve given ONLY applies to the Liberals – so why not differentiate in those cases?
Could it be that you’re behaving like a partisan hack?
Xoanon 950
Yes I think we are finally going to”emerge and see the stars again” which I think is the last line of Dante’s Inferno. I’m sure I remember hearing Whitlam quote it when Labor once won government.
Asha
I have watched bits of Dr Who over the last how ever many doctors, but I did love Leela. And Jo Grant – great 70s fashion!
And yes I think love him or loathe him Dutton would not have become a laughing stock as PM. Morrison as others have said is the classic example of someone promoted well beyond their abilities – wasn’t it called the Peter Principle? He has really set the Coalition back – we are well past post-coup doldrums and they are still stuffed!
”
Michael says:
Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 11:08 pm
Mr Morrison is the first PM in my lifetime who hadn’t previously been his party’s leader, deputy leader or Senate leader. He’s also, in terms of length of parliamentary and ministerial experience, up there with Mr Turnbull as the least qualified Liberal PM there’s ever been. It seems to me that his colleagues have lost all sense of what sorts of knowledge and abilities are actually needed to do the job properly, in all its different dimensions.
”
LNP (both Libs & Nats) federal politics is a ‘Carry On’ from University politics. They no longer seem to under stand the Gravitas a PM post carries. It appears PM is like Student Union President of their University. Abbott completely replicated/ superimposed his University days mindset since he became LOTO. Till he became LOTO he was on leash by Howard & others. MT, in addition to inheriting a completely incompetent bunch, has supplemented it with his poor Judgement and abandonment of principles he stood for. It is down hill from there. The things that are stuck in memory even without even surfing internet and in your wildest dreams you cannot make up the below incidents.
1. Abbott standing in front of demeaning poster like ‘Bob Brown bitch’ ‘Juliar’
2. Trying to run away from House of Reps Chamber when they have to vote with Craig Thompson
3. Change in Abbott facial expression when Gillard gave Misogyny speech from Jovial to pure horror
4. Abbott Announcing Prince Philip as a Knight of Australian Government
5. Abbott contesting with an empty chair for leadership
6. MT frittering away his advantage over Shorten by putting everything on the table & then taking them away one by one
7. MT going for DD election.
8. MT speech on the election night of 2016
9. MT loosing a vote HOR in 2016.
10. Dual Citizenship issue
11. Joyce Philandering & fall from grace
12. Having seen the results of 2016 Federal Results, still going for a very long by-election campaign, which spectacularly backfired on MT.
13. The madness we witnessed during the week LNP removed MT.
14. Morrison losing Wentworth by-election after raising the prosect of shifting embassy to Jerusalem
Xoanon @ #274 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 5:50 am
They may seem similar, but at their core the issues are completely different.
Labor’s issue was personalities, whilst the Liberal’s is ideology.
One is easier to fix than the other. 🙂
RR
“I have watched bits of Dr Who over the last how ever many doctors, ”
Technically, we’re up to 14. (Though one wasn’t called the Doctor.)
“but I did love Leela.”
Oh I adored Leela.
KayJay says:
Monday, November 12, 2018 at 9:53 am
On another topic, sometimes for days I could not post on PB ie when I posted the post is not displayed on PB. It started happening to me since US midterm elections. But suddenly I get back the ability to post. Can you suggest something what I should do to overcome the above problem?
The Ladbroke odds imply a probability of a Labor win as about 72%, 26% to Coalition and 2% someone else.
The probability of someone else is zero, but the odds for Labor and Coalition feel right. These odds are set to reflect amounts wagered plus a healthy profit margin.
Nobody in the wider electorate voted for Mr Morrison as PM, so voters can turn against him without having to admit to themselves that they previously got it wrong. Ms Gillard had the same problem.
Morrison is one of the main exponents of politics-as-dogfight. Voters just really can’t stand it. He’s either insulting their intelligence by substituting pie-eating and playing other stunts for governing or he’s insulting their intelligence by shouting at his antagonists in parliament and the media. He is abysmal. He’s a fake. He’s cactus.
Pedant @ #293 Monday, November 12th, 2018 – 6:21 am
Nobody in the wider electorate, outside Wentworth, voted for Mr Turnbull as PM. 🙂
zoomster
The difference I see between the ALP and the LNP since Abbott took over to now is simple.
Nationalism v Patriotism as Macron put it at the Paris ceremony of end of ww1
I think its why the Liberals lost Wentworth. It did start with Howard’s dog whistle to racism on AS.
They just did not get to the full nationalism to later. This has been disguised with Free Trade Agreements but like Trump the LNP don’t like multilaterism.
Yes its not a perfect following the nationalism path which is why its snuck up on us. All the signs are there however and it won’t take much for the disguise and pretence of the champions of free trade to lose that disguise. Just as we have seen when it comes to coal mines.
Edit: Thus Mr Turnbull’s remarks on QandA as well.
andrew bolt asks “Why are we giving terrorists refuge?”
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/andrew-bolt
I ask “Why are we giving a faux-far-right ‘Clog-Wog’ a column and TV show to spew hate and division?”
note that he also now thinks Mark Latham is a wonderful bloke and it was the labor party that failed not Latham.
the murdoch stable of c@#$s is a cancer on our society.
SF
In the last few days Mr Murdoch was meeting with Majority Leader McConnell of the GOP.
He advises Trump. He runs Fox news.
To me that makes him party to Trumps Nationalism. The standard you walk past is the standard you accept. We should not pull punches in saying so.