BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

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  1. From the GG

    It was at his crucifixion that Jesus made his famously charitable request: “Father forgive them, for they know not what they do.”

    But, as he emerged from 76 days in the tomb into the Q&A studio last night, Malcolm Turnbull dispensed with the forgiveness bit.

    The coup that ended his political mission on Earth, ………………

    https://outline.com/hbHdwE

  2. ”
    Prof. Higgins says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 9:46 am
    Ven,
    Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
    ”
    A southern conservative, who was more pragmatic than most southern conservatives & who started Vietnam war because he wanted to win 1968 election. Who are the other Democrats who won after Johnson other than Obama. Jimmy Carter & Bill Clinton, who were governors of 2 southern states. Carter won because of Nixon scandal. Clinton won because of recession & Ross Perot & Obama won because of Greatest Financial meltdown after Depression. True all 3 of them had charisma, which helped in the final result.

  3. Geoscience Aust shows there have been around a dozen earthquakes in the Lake Muir area over the last week at least. I’d love to know why. Why that area and why so frequently?

    The short answer is compressive stress:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-17/wa-earthquakes-explained/10255300

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-03/farmers-find-gives-scale-to-south-west-wa-quake/10328672

    https://www.src.com.au/earthquakes/seismology-101/earthquakes-in-australia/

    As to why Lake Muir? I don’t know, but it’s probably related to (or part of) the Southwest Seismic Zone:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_West_Seismic_Zone

  4. Pretty amazing that the WH is now being accused of twittering a doctored film of the Acosta incident. Jesus. This is supposed to be the WH.

  5. DaretoTread:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 9:37 am
    —————————————

    Generally with you in this synopsis, but one minor quibble. Montana was never going to vote strongly for Jon Tester. It is generally deep red (Cook PVI of R+11, voted Trump +20). And though it has a better history of electing Democrats to statewide offices than other plains or mountain states (like Gov Steve Bullock), Tester himself only won by 1% in 2006 (a really strong Democratic wave election) and by 4% in 2012. So it is not quite right to frame Tester ekeing our a narrow win in Montana as significanrky falling short of expectations.

  7. A11

    Actually the latest is they seem to be sharing a video from Alan Jones Infowars site.

    I will post when I see confirmation.

    In the meantime this is the last tweet I saw from Jim Acosta before I went to bed last night and it sums it up for me.

    @Acosta tweets

    Don’t believe the lies coming from the WH. Believe in our freedoms. Thank you all for your support. We won’t back down. #1A

  10. Actually the latest is they seem to be sharing a video from Alan Jones Infowars site.

    Alex Jones, guytaur! 😆 Though I bet Alan Jones wishes he had a bully pulpit as big as his namesake.

  13. ”
    Boerwar says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 8:22 am
    It is timely to reflect on Frydenberg’s achievements as Minister for Energy and the Environment:

    1 He gutted marine parks
    2 He gutted the EPBC Act
    3 He delivered no energy policy
    4. He delivered no emissions policy
    5. He increased sovereign risk in the energy investment space
    6. He delivered a half dead Reef
    7. He increased list of vulnerable and endangered species. He achieved the world’s first global warming extinction.
    8. He increased emissions in transport space
    9. He delivered record hot temperatures
    10. He delivered record low rainfall
    11. Her turned tens of thousands of farmers into Global Warming beggars.
    12. He enabled POMS to smash Tassie’s Pacific Oyster industry
    13. He delivered 100 km of dead kelp beds along the WA coast
    14. He delivered 2500 square kilometers of mangroves in the Gulf.
    15. He enabled Kosciusko National Park to be turned into a horse paddock.
    ”
    And
    1. He is now Deputy Liberal Leader
    2. He is now Treasurer of this Country
    3. he will still win his seat come next Federal election.

  14. Here we are

    @AshaRangappa tweets

    .@PressSec you are seriously tweeting out an obviously doctored video – from InfoWars no less – to substantiate a false accusation of assault against a journalist???

    The standard for libel against a public figure is acting with “actual malice,” and your tweet is Exhibit A. https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1060374680991883265

    Bio

    Asha Rangappa is a Senior Lecturer at the Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs and a former Associate Dean at Yale Law School. Prior to her current position, Asha served as a Special Agent in the New York Division of the FBI, specializing in counterintelligence investigations. Asha has been a contributor on numerous television and radio outlets, and is now a legal and national security analyst for CNN.

  17. Cormann claims he was not privy to Tory internal polling which was referred to by Turnbull last night, which showed them head 52:48 in 40 mariginal seat. Bollocks! He’s the government’s leader in the Senate and Finance Minister.

    I like how one Fairfax contributor puts it:

    ‘If Cormann is just trying to tell us that he was not bright enough to understand what was really going on, I am happy to believe him.’

    The article:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/cormann-concedes-coalition-was-in-a-more-competitive-position-when-turnbull-knifed-20181109-p50eyf.html

  18. ”
    Bert says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 6:59 am
    “I’m out of politics, and I will return to the business world, and I love nothing more than technology, I love new projects, I like new technology, and I love creating jobs.”

    This from the man who totally fekked the NBN
    ”
    This from a who fekked many private ventureslike HIH

  20. It has been reported several times that Turnbull has special bitterness for Cormann who he trusted and regarded as a friend.
    But no so trustworthy or friendly that he shared internal party polling with him?
    Yeah, right.
    Cormann is also the puppet master in the WA branch were marginals abound. So nobody told him how the ministerial colleagues like Porter, Keenan and Wyatt were looking?
    Yeah, right.

  21. The NBN shows exactly why the QandA show was a fizzer. I know people put that question to QandA. I saw the tweets with the QandA hashtag.

    Another question missing was about the Uluru Voice to Parliament statement.

    Instead we got a show that was a platform for Turnbull to put his point of view. No hard questions on subjects that would make him look bad.

    Relevant subjects relating to what did you manage to do while in government.

  22. ”
    Mavis Smith says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 10:26 am
    like how one Fairfax contributor puts it:

    ‘If Cormann is just trying to tell us that he was not bright enough to understand what was really going on, I am happy to believe him.’
    ”
    I second the fairfax contributor. Exhibit 1 – “It is OK to be white” vote in Senate.
    Exhibit 2 – Not able to count numbers in Dutton Putsch
    Others please feel free to add other exhibits

  23. Michael A @ #105 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 9:02 am

    DaretoTread:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 9:37 am
    —————————————

    Generally with you in this synopsis, but one minor quibble. Montana was never going to vote strongly for Jon Tester. It is generally deep red (Cook PVI of R+11, voted Trump +20). And though it has a better history of electing Democrats to statewide offices than other plains or mountain states (like Gov Steve Bullock), Tester himself only won by 1% in 2006 (a really strong Democratic wave election) and by 4% in 2012. So it is not quite right to frame Tester ekeing our a narrow win in Montana as significanrky falling short of expectations.

    Michael
    yes fair enough. I am not sure why i go the idea that monatan was a bit blue. So I agree. Mpontan was actually a pretty good result for the democrats.

    Nate’s map is interesting. I think that demographics favour the Democrats medium term with so many states on the margins of blue zones shifting. Think Texas moving into the light red zone as is Arizona. Nevada already shifted. North Carolina soon too.

    Long term (medium term) I think the Republicans are finished but this means that something will emerge within the blue zones to provide choice and/or conflict. Not sure what.

  24. Rossmcg – Totally agree. Malcolm wants everybody to believe this polling was floating about in the party and he didn’t use it to save his arse? If that’s true, he’s beyond a moron.

  26. On Malcolm Turnbull’s claims of polling.

    I am sceptical too.

    My evidence by elections while he was still PM showing the primary vote collapsing.

    If anything the public polling is underestimating the primary vote collapse as reasonably being based on history to try and predict the future.

  27. Cat

    You should ask your Labor contacts to relay that suggestion to Shorten’s tactics team. If Labor party polling is showing a different story then they can release it to show its BS.

  28. Ven: “Barry Cassidy discussing politics this week to award wooden spoon mentioned that a brothel owner( a pimp), who died 1 month ago but was on Ballot, has won from Nevada on Republican ticket. He was a Trump supporter & no wonder about that”

    what i found most astonishing about this was that apparently he was backed by the republican evangelicals

  29. OK this is a little odd, at least for a Prime Minister to say:

    Pamela Anderson on 60 Minutes the other night with an appeal to the PM

    Defend your friend and get Julian his passport back and take him back
    to Australia and be proud of him and throw him a parade when he gets home.

    PM Morrison on Gold Coast radio with this response:

    I’ve had plenty of mates who have asked me if they could be my special
    envoy to sort the issue out… with Pamela Anderson

    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/scott-morrisons-sickening-promotion-of-rape-culture,12083

  30. I’ve had plenty of mates who have asked me if they could be my special envoy to sort the issue out… with Pamela Anderson

    Struggling to get past the ‘plenty of mates’ bit.

  32. Ven:

    Out of the coup, Dutton and Cormann seem Mal’s main targets. Dutton was always a danger to Turnbull, with him lacking political judgment by retaining him in his ministry, though it could be argued that it’s best to keep ones enemies close. Cormann, to me, is a lightweight, easily manipulated by the likes of Dutton & Abbott.

    Cormann will of course survive; Dutton’s a goner on current indications.

    One thing Turnbull did get right last night was your Exhibit 1.

    Exhibit 3: The eleventh-hour thought bubble to move our embassy to Jerusalem.

  33. Ven

    ICYMI

    4 hours ago @ljayes tweeted.

    BREAKING Sky News understand the Indonesian Govt is seeking a guarantee from Aust that it won’t move the Embassy in Israel – before it will finalise the FTA.

    It’s unlikely to be completed until there is an assurance that the embassy won’t be moved to Jerusalem.

    @SkyNewsAust

  34. ”
    Big A Adrian says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 10:51 am

    what i found most astonishing about this was that apparently he was backed by the republican evangelicals
    ”
    He is not dead to Republican evangelicals because he was Trump supporter. The salient features of this dead guy are that
    1. Like Trump he regarded woman body is there for enjoyment.
    2. Probably he believed in the concept of ‘Grab them by p…y’.
    3. He was shyster like Trump

  35. ”
    guytaur says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 11:06 am
    ”
    I am not at all surprised about it.
    Like ‘Liberals’ are lightning rod for Republicans & Palestinian cause is lightning rod for Muslims around the world.
    What I think is that Morrison will double down & for go FTA with Indonesia.

  36. Ven

    I think Morrison set the template for his reign as PM with his Muppet show comment. All the evidence since just confirms it. 🙂

  37. Jeebus. Just watched the clip of Acosta and the intern in Trumps press conference. Trying to rip away the microphone from a journalist mid question is aggressive behaviour (regardless of who owns the microphone or that the aggressor is a young woman), not to mention attempting to silence the press. After her statement accusing Acosta of a manhandling the woman, removing his pass and using doctored footage, Sanders must resign. The press as a whole (including Fox) should refuse to attend her sessions (which are pretty pointless anyway) and refuse to deal with her at all until she does.

    If Fox journos dont join in – they should expect the next Democrat president to shun them.

  38. @Ondrey11 tweets

    #chicago news choppers getting their money shots of the #ProtectMueller protests. #TrumpIsNotAboveTheLaw #NoOneIsAboveTheLaw https://twitter.com/Ondrey11/status/1060679903677501440/photo/1

    Andrew Weinstein Democrat lawyer tweets

    Updated vote totals just released by ⁦@BrowardVotes⁩. ⁦@NelsonForSenate⁩ and ⁦@AndrewGillum⁩ continuing to narrow the gap. ⁦@nikkifried⁩ still in the lead. More ballots left to count. https://enr.electionsfl.org/BRO/Summary/1985/

  40. I’ve had plenty of mates who have asked me if they could be my special envoy to sort the issue out… with Pamela Anderson

    Phworr! He’s sooo red-blooded, maaaate!

  41. ‘Mavis Smith says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 10:59 am

    Ven:

    Out of the coup, Dutton and Cormann seem Mal’s main targets. ‘

    The other multiple mentions went to Hunt. You might recall that Hunt was walking around shoulder to shoulder with Dutton during THAT week. There were reports that Hunt’s reward was going to be Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party which would have given Hunt Treasury.
    Turnbull would have had Hunt down as a reasonably reliable sort of non far Right sort of chap who backed him in his Abbott Putsch.
    Turnbull’s lapses of political judgement are legion. Trusting Hunt was just another such in his sea of troubles.

  44. G. I cant figure out how this will play out. How many Trump voters will stop voting for him if he closes down Mueller? How many Trump voters will change their vote if Mueller brings down serious adverse findings against the administration? Will it effect the GOP in their support for Trump or their nomination process for 2020? Will it just embolden and enrage Trumps base?

  45. Exhibit 2 – Not able to count numbers in Dutton Putsch
    Others please feel free to add other exhibits

    Exhibit: Corman and Cash…the brains behind the Lib/Phon alliance in the last W.A. state election. 🙂

  46. SK

    I think we have seen the base vote of Trump in the Midterms.

    The important part is the swinging voters needed to win elections were lost by Trump.

    So I think he will lose. Remember this is peak Trump before the Democrats start real investigations.
    The GOP can compare to impeaching Clinton all they like. The reality is that Trump’s comparison is with Nixon.

  48. I posted a link to this analysis of Morrison’s character last night on the previous thread.
    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2018/november/1540990800/sean-kelly/looking-scott-morrison

    It’s longer read than many but IMO well worth 10 minutes. Kelly starts his analysis with a 30 year old Morrison and continues until today. My simple summary would be that Morrison has no sense of responsibility or loyalty. The description is not so much of a clown but of a glib opportunist.

  50. ”
    sprocket_ says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 11:26 am
    Last night’s TV ratings:

    Credlin 35,000 Sky
    PM Live 66,000 Sky
    Turnbull on QandA 666,000 ABC
    ”
    I did not watch. I thought I can rely on fellow bloggers

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