BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 36
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  1. Morrison is trying to portray himself as an average bloke and finding it a daunting task. The whole country was hoping for someone slightly above average.

  4. Regarding the Melbourne attack, firstly sympathy to the victim’s family and kudos to Victorian police and bystanders for reacting so promptly.

    But this attack raises the real questions about our whole Border Force and AFP farce. We are now spending billions on Border Force and anti-terrorism measures, separate to normal policing. Yet what has it achieved? The last major AFP “terrorism” arrest turned out to be a screw up:
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/10/student-whose-terrorism-charge-was-dropped-calls-police-embarrassing-and-biased

    Meanwhile this actual terrorist, who came from a family that had been under surveillance, was not subject to any Potato Force action before it was too late. The real defence in this case was an effective uniformed (Victorian) police force, combined with responsible citizens.

    In short do we have any real evidence that having a huge AFP bureaucracy does any good in this field? Would we not be better off having a properly resourced anti-terrorism unit in each State policy force, linked to national level intelligence services, as was the case back in the 70s? All we have created is a massive power base for the Reichs Potato, and not improved real security.

    There are many reasons Dutton should be sacked, and this is another one. As a minimum he should be asked, if the Melbourne attacker was known to authorities, why no action was taken by the AFP before it was too late?

  8. Good Morning

    Socrates

    I have to agree. We have ASIO well resourced. The reason we saw ramping up of the Federal Police is due to war on terror (Dutton copying the US) The war on drugs (politicians of all stripes swallowing Nixon’s con) Fear of the other.

    Thats it. I agree about the power grab. If we are to have a Federal Police it should be set up like the FBI if we are to follow the US. The FBI has some problems but it is streets ahead of our “AFP/BorderForce”

  9. Socrates

    In short do we have any real evidence that having a huge AFP bureaucracy does any good in this field? Would we not be better off having a properly resourced anti-terrorism unit in each State policy force, linked to national level intelligence services, as was the case back in the 70s? All we have created is a massive power base for the Reichs Potato, and not improved real security.

    The rationale was the same as for privatisation – bigger is always more efficient.
    I agree with you. Setting up huge bureaucracies does nothing except provide income to bureaucrats.

    Bring back the plod on every street. 😉

  10. zoomster
    says:
    Saturday, November 10, 2018 at 8:20 am
    Sorry, nath, but those are the least alike doppelgangers I’ve ever seen…
    ____________________________________
    It’s not meant to be a doppelganger. It’s meant to be a joke. And referencing Shaun Micalef’s Mad as Hell, which invented the joke:

    Any time Shaun brings up a politician or other public figure, an image of a vaguely similar looking fictional character or other public figure will appear next to him. For example, Prime Minister Tony Abbott as Voldemort◊ or Opposition Leader Bill Shorten as an Oompa Loompa◊.

    https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Series/ShaunMicallefsMadAsHell

  16. zoomster
    says:
    Saturday, November 10, 2018 at 8:30 am
    nath
    It’s a poor joke, then – who’s the other photo of?
    ____________________
    A native of Loompaland

  17. Guytaur, Lizzie

    Thanks and yes you see the point. The AFP is not really a proper police force, set up with the normal discipline and training. I am nor trying to be anti-police here, but I am saying we should go back to having all the anti-terror work done by normal police, subject to normal police rules. Real police usually have good links with the community, and may be better placed to find home grown “terrorists” who are more often just anti-social individuals, who attach their crime to a political basis.

    Consider how many people ISIL recruited from Australians with criminal backgrounds. Treating them as normal criminals with different motives takes away the glamour of a “terrorist” label, but it is probably closer to the truth. I understand there are real external terrorist organisations, but they are properly the responsibility of ASIO, and should be dealth with by police liaison.

    Failing that, then yes Border Force and the AFP should be reformed more like the FBI, and not run as a political career prop, complete with links to minister’s offices for photo ops in raids on union offices. Not quite clear where the national security risk is on that case.

  18. Grimace from yesterday

    Yeah I am such an idiot. I suggested taking my suggestion to the tactics committee if cat agreed it was a suggestion worth considering.

    It may have escaped your notice but Labor is pointing out what idiots the LNP are. Muppet show etc.

    Thats not interrupting. Thats making sure people notice. 🙂

  22. Socrates

    Your questions are valid

    I understand there is a counter terrorism operation within State Police forces

    Where liaison with the Federal Police is and where “Border Force” and indeed our armed forces sit within this I am unaware

    We currently have a government which sees “Border Force” as an election winning theme – and at State level with “law and order”

    We will never know the outcome of anti terrorism endeavours unless government announces a disruption (and supported by arrests and convictions?)

    We will know of happenings such as yesterday

    In today’s world we know that 100% success is impossible – there are nutters and criminals within society, not deterred by laws and punishment

    We can only remain vigilant

    Which brings us back to laws (continually amended for political traction?) and the effectiveness of those laws in allowing those tasked with counter terrorism responsibilities to be as effective as they can be

    This is not a game

  23. My take on the incident in Melbourne yesterday.

    It makes you proud to be Australian. Not only excellent police and emergency service response but the public acted in concert and cooperation with them in an emergency situation. Not just people filming on their phones.

    Melbournians cop a lot of flak but they stood up. And yes the public know lone wolf attacks get through.
    See France US etc.

    Its also a great vindication of our gun laws. This particular lone wolf did not have the resources to get his hands on a gun that would have made the injuries and deaths much much worse.

  24. Lizzie
    “Fr Rod Bower
    ‏
    Only a sociopath could pray and weep for a child on Nauru and then oppose their medical treatment in court @ScottMorrisonMP #kidsoffnauru #Auspol”

    Thanks I missed that one. Devastatingly accurate. Not to mention ScumMo having the power to remove every child from Nauru tomorrow, simply by accepting the generous offer the New Zealand Prime Minister has repeatedly made to Australia.

  25. Another stellar appointment by Trump.

    Acting Attorney General Matthew G. Whitaker has said that judges should have a “biblical view,” that he could not support nominees who are “secular” and declared that federal courts should be the “inferior branch” of government.

    Whitaker’s comments, made during an unsuccessful bid for the U.S. Senate in 2014, have drawn new scrutiny since President Trump named him Wednesday to replace ousted Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

    In an April 25, 2014, debate, moderator Erick Erickson asked the candidates about their faith. Whitaker said that, if elected, he would want judges who “have a biblical view of justice, which I think is very important …”

    Erickson interjected: “Levitical or New Testament?”

    “I’m a New Testament,” Whitaker answered, according to an account at the time in the Des Moines Register. “And what I know is as long as they have that world view, that they’ll be a good judge. And if they have a secular world view, where this is all we have here on Earth, then I’m going to be very concerned about that judge.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-a-senate-candidate-whitaker-said-he-could-not-support-secular-judicial-nominees-and-that-courts-should-be-inferior-branch/2018/11/09/608e23a4-e45c-11e8-8f5f-a55347f48762_story.html?utm_term=.4015dec68ac6

  26. C@t

    I find Micallef’s over-acting annoying, especially his constant pretence that he doesn’t know which camera is on. Some of his supporting actors are very good. I rarely watch.

  27. Socrates
    Very good points and it’s time for them to be made in my view.
    Dutton has completely screwed this up.
    And Guys little effort of trying to marginalize a section of Victorian society is definitely not the answer, we want less terrorist for the Victorian Police to deal with and more responsible citizens to help, who cares if they are white or bridle.

  28. nath

    Yeah, a lot of “Mad as Hell’ humour falls flat.

    You do like referencing ‘experts’ though – just because something appeared on a comedy show doesn’t mean it was actually funny.

  31. lizzie @ #446 Saturday, November 10th, 2018 – 8:38 am

    We have no more details about the man killed and left lying in Bourke Street, do we?
    Unless it’s been on later morning news.

    I haven’t seen anything. The gentleman was referred to as “an old man”. A very, very sad description for an unfortunate victim of a senseless attack. I hope for further information – possibly more comforting for his family and friends.

  32. Observer

    Thanks. We all know no system will ever be fully effective. But do you see any value in having a separate overarching internal national security force, as opposed to national intelligence agencies? To me it simply creates overlap with State police forces, and I do not see any evidence of improved security. As you say, the latter (real security) comes from effective gun laws, and real (state based) police.

    Better security might come from better youth job placement, mental health services and treatment for drug addiction, which together seem to supply a high proportion of the “terrorists”.

  33. Interested in the uncalled US mid terms seats? Nate Silver has a good roundup..

    “
    Everyone has voted, the results are in and we know who will control the Senate and the House — but several races remain unresolved. (We warned you this might happen.) As of 1:20 p.m. on Friday, Nov. 9, news outlets have yet to project winners in 17 races: three for the U.S. Senate, 13 for the U.S. House and one for Georgia governor. These races have the potential to meaningfully change the narrative around this election — for example, Democrats could pick up 42 House seats instead of 29, or turn a disappointing showing in the Senate into a draw. Here’s the state of each undecided race — including our best estimate of who might prevail when all is said and done.‘

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-16-races-still-too-close-to-call/

  34. I am no fan of Mad as Hell. Its no Gillies report. I thought in its heyday the Chaser was better and I thought the humour fell flat in that a lot of the time.

    I would like to see Dave Hughes do such a show. Or axe Mad as Hell and bring back Tonightly. That was also not my cup of tea in humour (I have been spoilt by the British).

    That said Nath was perfectly fine in finding it funny. We all have our different perceptions and there is an audience for Mad as Hell much as I personally don’t think its funny.

  37. It turns out the 2018 midterm elections were pretty much a rout. Counting all the votes makes all the difference in the world.

    In the House, as of this writing, the Democratic gains are up to 30 with about five more races still to be called — in which Democrats are leading. A gain of 35 seats would be the largest House pickup for Democrats since the first post-Watergate midterm election in 1974.

    The Democrats picked up seven governorships, with Stacey Abrams, as of now, still fighting to make it to a runoff in Georgia, and Andrew Gillum trailing by 0.4 percentage points, enough to trigger a recount in Florida.

    In the Senate, Democrats may not quite have pulled off an inside straight, but they had two aces — in Nevada and Arizona. With 26 seats to defend, many in red states, it now looks as if their losses will be small. Democrats won in Nevada and are now poised to pick up a seat in Arizona. In the latter, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema surged into the lead as additional Maricopa County ballots were counted.)

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/opinions/wp/2018/11/09/three-days-later-hey-republicans-really-did-get-clobbered/?utm_term=.7391f16b0a1e

    And there’s still Florida!

  44. For the first time in the party’s history members will be asked in two surveys if they want to have a say in the federal leadership, and whether the minor party should grant Labor only supply and confidence, enter a formal agreement or even take ministries in a Labor-Greens government.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/10/greens-to-survey-members-on-how-to-pick-leader-and-govern-with-labor
    —————————————-

    Good news! I hope the outcomes will be:

    1. That the Greens’ national leader is selected by a national vote in which federal parliamentarians get 50% (or a bit less) of the vote and all Greens members get the rest.

    2. That the Greens do not enter into formal coalition agreements with minority Labor governments and do not accept ministries in minority Labor governments.

    The Greens must retain their distinctive identity and avoid being tarnished by the ALP’s neoliberal flimflam.

    Any minority ALP government must be compelled to earn Greens votes for every piece of legislation that it wants to pass.

    If and when the ALP becomes a genuinely progressive party, the Greens should revisit the issue.

    But for now, the Greens would be well-advised to keep their distance from the ALP. The best thing that the Greens can do for the ALP is to keep them on their toes. The Greens’ attitude towards the ALP should be “Trust, but verify.” The ALP cannot truly be trusted as a force for progressive good at the moment. Perhaps that will change in the future.

  45. Nicholas

    Ah, so Labor is already more democratic than the Greens.

    …and Labor has avoided 2 since the Tasmanian disaster. Basically, the Greens have (over several governments) shown that they’re, at best, incompetent at governance and, at worst, untrustworthy.

  46. Nicholas

    I disagree with you on the Job Guarantee as I think a UBI is better.

    However I am glad to see someone reporting on good structural changes from the Greens.

    Its good to see they can learn lessons from Labor. Yes I agree the Greens are progressive despite the smear of them being in the pockets of the Liberals from partisans here.

    I hope that the Greens have also learnt the lesson about when its necessary to expel people too. Don’t want a nazi style infiltration and like Labor sexual harasses need to be expelled. Preferably before they stand as a candidate or office holder.

    Can you provide a link for these changes for those wanting to see the details?

  48. I had been meaning to ask if anyone seriously believed Malfunctions claim that the coal were ahead in 40 marginals.

    He wasn’t lying. Just that the polling was showing results like Wentworth were possible and so every Coalition seat is now a marginal.

    40 sounds about right.

  49. “ScoMo prayed and cried for the children on Nauru.”

    Andrew Laird

    If you ever have to explain what hypocrisy means to someone I can’t think of a better example #auspol #AsylumSeekers

  50. ‘They never vet these people’: DOJ officials think the new acting AG is ‘a f*cking fool’

    Officials inside the Justice Department think new Acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker is an “underqualified” “fool” who may cause problems beyond the special counsel investigation.

    The Daily Beast reported that the fears within the Department of Justice about Whitaker’s lack of experience and concerns over his comments from his time as a pundit are far more “expansive” than those of the rest of the country.

    “He’s a f*cking fool,” a trial attorney said of the new acting AG. “He’s spent so much time trying to suck up to the president to get here. But this is a big job. It comes with many responsibilities. He just simply doesn’t have the wherewithal.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/never-vet-people-doj-officials-think-new-acting-ag-fcking-fool/

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