BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,767 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

  1. IS can claim anything, it is pretty much finished struggling for relevance.

    Hard to tell how this will affect the state campaign. On the surface this may hurt ALP but opposite can also happen as people lock behind the current leader. I think it won’t matter much.

  2. Terrorise attacks generally provoke a desire for stability and backing our institutions and way of life so barring there having been some horrible stuff up it shouldn’t change things much.

  3. I doubt it will hurt the Victorian government.

    In terms of support for the Security State Libs and Labs are equally “locked in”.

    In terms of support for mass migration and untramelled growth the Libs and Labs are equally “locked in”.

    To try to create a difference, the Libs try a racist thing. I doubt anyone will really take them seriously.

  4. No matter how hard you try, you can’t stop a mad maniac.

    A previous Bourke St Mall mad maniac has just gone on trial. He killed more than the idiot today did, yet it’s not called terrorism.

    Neither of them had a gun.

    And thank God for that.

  5. Prosecutors Have Evidence Of Trump Crimes In Stormy Daniels Cover-Up

    The Wall Street Journal found that Mr. Trump was involved in or briefed on nearly every step of the agreements. He directed deals in phone calls and meetings with his self-described fixer, Michael Cohen, and others. The U.S. attorney’s office in Manhattan has gathered evidence of Mr. Trump’s participation in the transactions.

    No one knows what evidence Robert Mueller has collected in the Russia investigation against Donald Trump, but much more is known about the Michael Cohen case. Trump is wide open to a variety of state charges that can’t be self-pardoned away or restricted by his status as president.

    The White House has always been more concerned about the Michael Cohen case because there is clear and direct evidence of Trump criminal behavior that is grounds for impeachment.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/11/09/trump-directly-criminally-implicated-stormy-daniels-cover-up-crimes.html

  6. An empty bus touring the countryside, emblazoned with slogans and Morrison’s headshot.
    He has created the only symbol we need for him and his policy-free government.
    ‘Where the bloody hell are you, Scotty?’
    Genius.

  7. No worries C@t. A little knowledge is dangerous. Or so they say.
    That was something KayJay posted somewhere in the past that I filed away.
    Copy the link and add #image.jpg on the end.
    Re the image. Yes. I have never been impressed by Scooter but I didn’t think he was that thick.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Crispin Hull looks at the behaviour over the past 50 years of Coalition Australian prime ministers facing defeat and concludes that it’s the same as that of Morrison and his government right now.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/death-throes-mark-start-of-another-cycle-20181109-p50ezw.html
    And Laura Tingle tells us how an awful realisation has dawned on the Morrison government.
    https://outline.com/etVqAn
    Morrison has finally said that conservative Liberal insurgents who orchestrated Malcolm Turnbull’s demise believed the party must better connect with the values of its grassroots members.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-explains-the-logic-behind-malcolm-turnbull-s-knifing-20181109-p50f3l.html
    Phil Coorey says it’s no mystery why Malcolm Turnbull was dumped as Prime Minister.
    https://outline.com/wRFn5b
    And Mathias Cormann – whose shift in support was crucial in the coup against former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull – has conceded the Coalition had improved its electoral position just before he and his colleagues knifed their leader.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/cormann-concedes-coalition-was-in-a-more-competitive-position-when-turnbull-knifed-20181109-p50eyf.html
    Chris Wallace says the amount of ridicule this early in a prime ministership is unprecedented and probably irreversible.
    https://outline.com/kWmHGn
    In quite a long contribution Katharine Murphy wonders whether Morrison’s rapid rebranding will work.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/10/from-headkicker-to-suburban-scott-will-morrisons-rapid-rebranding-work
    Mike Seccombe explains how the expulsion of a group of neo-Nazis from the Young Nationals highlights the way extremist and special interest groups can infiltrate major political parties, especially as falling party memberships put takeovers more easily within reach.
    https://outline.com/w3qGpX
    Karen Middleton has been coming up with some great stuff of late. Here she tells us that while mystery surrounds Scott Morrison’s sacking from Tourism Australia, a buried audit report shows numerous anomalies and concerns over contracts worth $184 million. I thinks there’s more to come out of this.
    https://outline.com/6V8Uf6
    Deborah Snow goes inside the NSW Labor Party as the Foley thing unwinds.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/all-of-us-were-aghast-inside-labor-hq-no-one-expected-what-came-next-20181109-p50f31.html
    Alexandra Smith says that Foley’s continued denials will hurt the NSW Labor party.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/foley-retaliates-by-contradicting-reporter-20181108-p50evz.html
    The SMH editorial believes Ashleigh Raper over Foley.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/we-believe-ashleigh-over-foley-20181109-p50f0e.html
    Jacqui Maley writes that it is no coincidence that as the #metoo movement ricochets around the world, in Australia we find ourselves at the centre of a four-way collision between a cultural change on respect for women, a global surge of female anger, our stringent defamation laws, and a brutal political culture. She says the Joyce, Rush and Foley cases all involve allegations of inappropriate sexual conduct against powerful men, made by women who did not want those allegations made public.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/when-metoo-meets-defamation-law-and-a-brutal-political-culture-20181109-p50f3j.html
    Meanwhile Nick O’Malley reports that ABC journalist Sean Nicholls has described a claim made in The Australian newspaper that he provided information to a Liberal Party minister about an allegation the NSW Labor leader had groped a fellow journalist at a function as false and defamatory.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/abc-says-claims-its-reporter-leaked-groping-allegations-are-defamatory-20181109-p50f4d.html
    Ross Gittins writes that one test of whether our political leaders are looking to the economy’s future or clinging to its past is whether they show an understanding that most of our future lies in the services economy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/services-are-taking-over-the-economy-despite-political-pushback-20181109-p50f04.html
    Peter Hartcher examines the landscape for the upcoming election and what Morrison must do to give himself a chance.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/it-s-not-just-the-economy-stupid-trump-and-turnbull-know-it-too-well-20181109-p50f53.html
    Oh Dear! The director of privacy at the agency behind My Health Record has quit amid claims the organisation and Health Minister Greg Hunt’s office have not been taking the concerns of internal privacy experts seriously enough.
    https://www.theage.com.au/technology/my-health-record-s-privacy-chief-quits-amid-claims-agency-not-listening-20181107-p50elu.html
    Jack Waterford fervently hopes that the independents will take the lead on dealing with corruption and bring on the establishment of a federal ICAC. As usual Jack has written an excellent essay.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/let-s-hope-independents-take-lead-on-corruption-20181109-p50ez3.html
    The Bourke St man has been classed as a “lone terrorist”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/two-people-stabbed-man-shot-after-car-set-alight-on-bourke-street-reports-20181109-p50f55.html
    The Australian reports that the terrorist who drove a burning ute into the heart of ­Melbourne’s Bourke Street yesterday and stabbed three people, killing one, had links to Islamic extremists, was a person of interest to Victoria Police and was known to federal intelligence agencies. It says a hunt was last night under way for his ­female partner, who police alleged had been radicalised.
    https://outline.com/F9dnwz
    Trolley Man and the strangers who tried to help.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/victoria/trolley-man-and-the-strangers-who-tried-to-help-20181109-p50f6f.html
    Josh Frydenberg has urged the banks to consider the public good as the government seeks to head off an anticipated credit crunch stemming from the royal commission.
    https://www.outline.com/HJ3LGx
    Writing from America Anne Summers reckons Donald Trump is cornered and he knows it. She wonders if the US is on the brink of fascism.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/donald-trump-is-cornered-and-he-knows-it-20181109-p50f0a.html
    US democracy is in crisis. But Trump is only the symptom says Jonathan Freedland.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/09/us-democracy-trump-white-rural-minority-majority
    The signing of the Indonesia-Australia free trade deal could now be delayed, with Indonesian Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita admitting disquiet over the potential move of the Australian embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem could push back the signing date.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/new-doubts-over-when-indonesia-australia-free-trade-deal-will-be-signed-20181109-p50f6e.html
    The AFR says there is no GOP now, just Trump, so buckle in for a wild ride!
    https://outline.com/c7xr43
    Cole Latimer looks at the trajectory of Chinese infrastructure investment in Australia and wonders if the tide has (been) turned.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/has-chinese-investment-become-toxic-20181109-p50ez5.html
    Kerry O’Brien has written a large book reflecting on his time at the ABC. Karen Middleton examines what he has said about John Howard.
    https://outline.com/mauSnA
    NBN Co says 855,000 homes and businesses are due to switch to the NBN access network between January and March next year, but it is urging small businesses to get ready. Emma Koehn writes about the moment of truth as D-Day approaches.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/the-big-switch-business-customers-warned-on-adsl-changes-20181109-p50eyu.html
    And as if we weren’t already aware of the problems surrounding the troubled NBN project, the ACCC has now intervened to highlight just how bad the situation is, writes Laurie Patton.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/accc-intervenes-in-troubled-nbn-project,12082
    When a runaway train crashes in the WA desert, its impact is felt around the world. BHP has not been too forthcoming on the details of this huge prang.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/when-a-runaway-train-crashes-in-the-wa-desert-its-impact-is-felt-around-the-world-20181109-p50ex3.html
    Elizabeth Farrelly eulogises over Ted Mack’s legacy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/not-your-regulation-celebrity-but-the-kind-of-leader-we-crave-20181108-p50er2.html
    Atlassian’s CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes tells us why Australia needs to be a renewable energy superpower.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-australia-needs-to-be-a-renewable-energy-superpower-20181109-p50f0h.html
    Adam Carey writes that Labor’s promise to ramp up Victoria’s renewable energy target to 50 per cent has widened the policy gulf between the major parties on one of the main election issues.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/power-politics-energy-policy-the-great-divide-in-victorian-election-20181108-p50ev5.html
    The Prime Minister’s recent comment made about Pamela Anderson’s plea to bring Julian Assange back home was abhorrent, yet the media have been silent about it, writes Dr Jennifer Wilson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/scott-morrisons-sickening-promotion-of-rape-culture,12083
    Craig Kelly is an out and out idiot, totally undeserving of a place in our parliament!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/09/craig-kelly-mocks-climate-change-exaggeration-in-presentation-to-liberal-party-members
    Bloomberg suggests that air travel is about to get even less glamorous as competition ramps up between airports.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/air-travel-is-about-to-get-even-less-glamorous-20181109-p50ezs.html
    Michaela Whitbourn reports on the last day of the Rush/Telegraph trial.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/rush-seeks-millions-in-damages-from-daily-telegraph-20181109-p50ezh.html

    And for today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week” . . .
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/man-facing-fraud-charges-over-drought-hit-farmer-fundraiser-20181109-p50f63.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe has two more beauties for us.


    Two crackers from Mark David.


    Peter Broelman on Foley’s fate.

    Must be time for Zanetti’s salary review!

    Sean Leahy and Trump’s war with the media.

    Jon Kudelka finds one of the “big” Queensland edifices.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/44de1b219780a08f86d59ef197018068
    David Pope on Remembrance Day.
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/4064e525fc766e499cb590eb5cd0b8f3f3901661
    More good ones in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-november-10-2018-20181109-h17qfo.html

  9. I knew it! Malcolm Turnbull was telling porky pies on QandA:

    Mr Turnbull also said on Thursday night that Liberal polling confirmed he was on track to win the next election before the coup.

    “I haven’t seen any such polling,” Senator Cormann said.

    “There’s no question in my mind the government had worked very well as a team and we were getting into a more competitive position than we had been.

    “I have not seen that polling … before or after,” he said.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/11/09/mathias-cormann-coup-malcolm-turnbull/

  10. What a great get from Karen Middleton!

    Karen Middleton has been coming up with some great stuff of late. Here she tells us that while mystery surrounds Scott Morrison’s sacking from Tourism Australia, a buried audit report shows numerous anomalies and concerns over contracts worth $184 million. I thinks there’s more to come out of this.

    https://outline.com/6V8Uf6

    It’s worthy of a Walkley, if substantiated.

  11. Labour wastage in the United States in October 2018

    There is a massive amount of labour wastage in the United States. Total labour wastage is 16 million people (9.5 percent of the labour force). The United States Government needs to implement a universal Job Guarantee to stop this waste and enhance the prosperity, social value, and environmental sustainability of the United States.

    Demolish Donald Trump by eradicating involuntary unemployment.

    http://www.levyinstitute.org/publications/public-service-employment-a-path-to-full-employment

    https://www.facebook.com/168294569878156/posts/2624933567547565/

  12. Aqualung,
    I do NOT believe that Turnbull would have kept secret from the rest of Cabinet, as he was fighting for his political life, such favourable polling.

  13. C@t
    What happened to the custom built bike?
    How much was its purchase price?
    This story wreaks in a ‘it’s confidential’ and ‘you don’t need to know’ manner thrown in as the ‘hope it goes away’ answer so often produce in mordern political parlance.

  14. Goll @ #678 Saturday, November 10th, 2018 – 7:43 am

    C@t
    What happened to the custom built bike?
    How much was its purchase price?
    This story wreaks in a ‘it’s confidential’ and ‘you don’t need to know’ manner so often thrown in as the ‘hope it goes away’ answer so often produce in mordern political parlance.

    I think the article shows how Morrison spends Other Peoples Money in order to keep himself in a job. He uses OPM to create success for himself, or so he thinks it will. Just like he’s doing now.

  15. Morning all. Thanks BK. The Laura Tingle article (quite good) is now on the ABC site:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-10/morrison-government-awful-realisation-election/10483564

    As I have said in recent weeks, all the signs are there that the Liberals now realise that they are going to loose. I predict a lot of MP retirements for “family reasons” over the Christmas break, and especially just after.

    ScumMo must be furious that that Melbourne terrorist attack has distracted attention from the leadership momentum and great policy work his new team has bbeen doing lately 🙂

  16. There was a great facebook meme I saw of a ScumMo bus photo with the slogan on the side reading “This is the bus we threw Malcolm under”. Anyone seen it on a website?

  17. Socrates, is that the one with Mal near the front wheels of the bus?
    Saw it on twitter but couldn’t figure out what it was. That could explain it. I’ll scroll back and see if I can find it.

  18. ScumMo must be furious that that Melbourne terrorist attack has distracted attention from the leadership momentum and great policy work his new team has been doing lately

    And his crocodile tears for the kids still on Nauru, yesterday.

    You know, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was ScuMo who suggested to Joe Hockey that he should try the same trick on the floor of parliament a few years ago.

  19. Fr Rod Bower

    Only a sociopath could pray and weep for a child on Nauru and then oppose their medical treatment in court @ScottMorrisonMP #kidsoffnauru #Auspol

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