Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Another turn of the polling screw against the Coalition, as formerly uncommitted respondents increasingly offer a negative view of the Prime Minister.

The fortnightly Essential poll — now appearing in Newspoll off weeks, praise be — follows Newspoll in recording Labor’s lead at 54-46, out from 53-47. Monthly personal ratings are better for Scott Morrison than Newspoll in that he remains in net positive territory, but the formerly undecided are breaking heavily against him, with his approval down two to 41% and disapproval up nine to 37%. Bill Shorten maintains his recent improving form, up five on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 44% – his second best result from the pollster in the past two years. However, the shift on preferred prime minister is relatively modest, with Morrison’s lead down from 42-27 to 41-29.

Other findings: 44% support Australia becoming a republic in principle, down four since May, with 32% opposed; 61% have a favourable view of Queen Elizabeth, 68% of Prince William, 70% of Prince Harry but only 33% of Prince Charles. The Guardian report is here; the full report from Essential Research, including primary votes, will be with us later today. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1028.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here, and the primary vote shifts are on the high end from what you’d expect out of a one-point shift on two-party preferred: the Coalition is down two to 36%, and Labor up two to 39%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,958 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 40
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  3. Steve777 says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 7:26 am
    So we have a Senate election in May. The Senators take their seats 1/7/2019. Meanwhile, the terms of the long term Senators elected in 2016 expire 30/6/2022. The House election takes place the following November. To avoid another separate Senate election, whoever wins then has to call the next election by May 2022, so are limited to a 2.5 year term.
    —————————————

    They are clearly thinking of “poisoning the well” for the incoming Labor administration, out of sheer bloody-mindedness. The crossbenchers need to have the nakedly undemocratic unfairness of this pointed out to them by Labor, mixed with the promise that the anti-democratic nature of this move will be firmly and frequently put to voters in Indi, Wentworth, Mayo & Kennedy, should their representative act to maintain the Morrison Government in power by allowing them to inflict this on the voters of this country.

  6. Hey guys. Anybody checked Ladbrokes for the odds on next GG. Julie Bishop heads the table at 2 followed by lord Downer. Kim Beasley is number four after Angus Houston. Does it mean there are plans to install JB before federal election?

  7. Not to burst the bubble but im not confident about the polling showing a blue wave. I feel that the Dems may fall just short in the house. The senate is not possible if the Dems lose Heitkamp in North Dakota which is likely.

  12. Rocket Rocket says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 7:52 am
    “…when the public feel that a government has been dragged kicking and screaming to an election they react savagely.”
    —————————————

    Yes. Let’s recollect that the whole of August-October of 2007, the media & social media were continuously hammering the then Howard Government for not yet calling the election. It was seen as running scared from the voters, dragging its feet on the inevitable calling of stumps on its time in office. This only added to the swing against it, feeding as it did into Labor’s point that Howard was then running a tired, stale government unsuited to meeting the challenges of the 21st century.

  13. ”
    Xasrai says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 7:20 am
    Separate house and senate elections is a terrible idea for this government. Based on this, I believe it is the only course of action that will make sense to them.
    ”
    To split Senate & House election is a very bad idea. Whoever is suggesting & agreeing in LNP have rocks in their heads. It clearly shows that
    1. the LNP government is afraid to face elections for HOR, which is where is government formation is decided
    2. Government is anti-democratic
    3. LNP wants to hang to power at any cost.

  14. Kay Jay @8.26

    Reminds me of comedian Glen ????? probly 20+ years ago. In the era of Sustralia You’re Standing in It. He had short-long curly hair (permed??) and a very likeable face n smile.

    He did a character ….. a cop ….. naned Constable ‘kin Constable

    Saw him live at the Civic at the time n he was very funny.

  16. Given your particular insights, how would you rate Ms Mirabella in terms of the Relatable Persona Index?
    ____
    BW
    It would need to be based upon a logarithmic scale!

  19. Some of the niggles in the Pope cartoon:

    1. Vet Chair, Front and Centre
    2. Used tin can top hats.
    3. The old clothes hanger aerial to signify Coalition modern comms.
    4. The lump of coal.
    5. The gennie spewing CO2 into the atmosphere.
    6. **cking Queenslanders
    7. One night only: Scomo here today gone tomorrow.
    8. The Clown thing.

  20. Kay Jay

    He was Glynn Nicholas and it was The Big Gig ….. wendy Harmer in it too.

    Another of his characters was Pate Biscuit (Pate had one of those French comma things above the “e” ……. Latin is my go, not French).

    This was a take-off of well known kids’ songstress of the time, Patsy Biscoe.

  21. ”
    lizzie says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 7:52 am
    The government is hopeful about its electoral prospects in Queensland, a state where Turnbull was considered unpopular, and Morrison is spending a lot of time projecting what his strategists consider to be a relatable persona, with frequent social media posts heavy on vernacular.
    ”
    Ha Ha Ha…
    Seriously though who writes this kind of tripe?

  22. Peter Murphy
    ‏
    Blokey-dope AUS PM @ScottMorrisonMPreveals his love of #Indian #Bollywood cinema. I guess this is the Liberal Party gesture of support for #Multiculturalism. #auspol pic.twitter.com/fjVgazEByr

  23. 5 possible scenarios for election day and what they’d mean.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/05/possible-scenarios-election-day-what-theyd-mean/?utm_term=.fe467c9cf51e

    It’s unlikely, but I’d just love to see scenario 3!

    3. Democrats somehow win both chambers, with the blue wave also consuming the Senate
    How it would happen: This would be the really big wave — and it’s not inconceivable. Projections gave Trump around a 1-in-6 shot at winning the presidency in 2016, and those are the odds FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats to win the Senate.

    The likeliest outcome would seem to be Tennessee goes Democratic, and Texas possibly following it, giving Democrats a 51-49 or 52-48 majority in the Senate. The best possible outcome would include Democrats also holding North Dakota — and batting 1.000 on defense — and getting as much as a 53-47 Senate majority.

    What it would mean: Trump and the GOP losing both the House and the Senate would be a seismic shift, given the inherent advantage Republicans have on both maps. Immediately, talk would turn to how the 2016 election was perhaps a fluke and to how Trump’s divisiveness had backfired. And it wouldn’t be wrong.

  24. James ?Neil? stated today that there is a live issue about what is meant by ‘veteran’.

    Apart from anything else, VetGate has reminded the Return from Active Service Badge entitled folk that their efforts are being used by non-active service veterans.
    Based on my sample of four yesterday, the RAS badge folk are not happy at all.
    One issue to be resolved is whether the Department of Veterans Affairs should be called something else.

  26. The signs of a Relatable Persona:

    1. Squeezes the family jewels in order to put foot on chair in manly fashion.
    2. Has daily populist brainfart.
    3. Rides in the back of the bus.
    4. Loves the Bollywood Film Hoopla.
    5. Empties beer on head for cheap laughs from ‘mates’.
    6. Talks about ‘do’.
    7. Announces that Australians do not want to talk about what he does not want to talk about in interview.
    8. Talks about how is not part of the Canberra Bubble after knifing his Canberra leader in Canberra for no reason that is even remotely discernible outside the Canberra Bubble.

  31. ”
    Peter Hartcher explains how Morrison has staked foreign policy on values that Beijing abhors.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/scott-morrison-has-staked-foreign-policy-on-values-beijing-abhors-20181105-p50e2a.html
    ”
    Did Marise Payne went to China 3 years after JBish visit to espouse these values? I fully support the government to espouse the values listed by Hartcher to China.
    Increasingly Xi is becoming another Mao only this time it will affect the whole world .

  32. Yesterday

    James O’Doherty
    ‏
    Australia’s Prime Minister is discussing where he had his “first pash”, on FM radio

    This is getting very embarrassing.

  34. ”
    Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 9:00 am
    4. Loves the Bollywood Film Hoopla.
    ”
    As far as I know there is no such film. 🙂

  35. Think the 2018 campaign will be over after all the ballots from Tuesday are counted? Think again.

    Some Republican officials now believe that the Georgia governor’s race is destined to go to a Dec. 4 runoff because neither Stacey Abrams, the Democrat, nor Brian Kemp, the Republican, is likely to capture a majority of the vote.

    The race is that close in their private polling and, while Mr. Kemp enjoys a slight advantage in the G.O.P. surveys, the libertarian on the ballot, Ted Metz, could take about 2 percent of the vote. (In Georgia’s 2014 gubernatorial race, the Libertarian nominee earned 2.36 percent of the vote.)

    That could keep either major candidate from reaching 50 percent on Election Day if the race remains neck-and-neck.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/us/politics/house-senate-elections-georgia-trump.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

  36. Australia’s Prime Minister is discussing where he had his “first pash”, on FM radio

    Look on the bright side: he could’ve chosen to speak about his first something else!

  37. Psyclaw (AnonBlock)
    Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 – 8:45 am
    Comment #64

    Kay Jay @8.26

    I’m no help with the comedian but the troops appear to be going well in a humorous vein so far today.

    Newcastle weather heading for 34℃ and I am now about to get the mower out and get to work before the heat confines me to the comfort of my airconditioned bedroom.

    A note on my Eye Specialist appointment yesterday.
    During the time I spent with my wife at an Aged Care facility – many of the ladies appeared to be almost ethereal – but still beautiful women.
    On to the present – I am becoming invisible – this is not new to me – I occasionally ask this one/that one “can you see me ❓ ” to which the response is, of course “yes.” Nevertheless, when I am accompanied by one or other of my daughters – the respondents continue to ignore me and address the daughters.

    At the Eye Hospital yesterday – the technician was very efficient while doing tests but when I brought up “Pride and Prejudice” she turned away and started to talk to Mary (2nd FD) about Mrs. Bennet (played by Brenda Blethyn who plays Vera).
    Then on to the MB who conducted further tests and prescribed drops – he responded to my questions but again spoke to me daughter.

    Cast back to “why is it so professor sumner miller.”

    I usually don’t get upset about this but yesterday the 2nd FD kept harping about how some people have trouble using eye drops. ❓ ❓ ❓

    A little mowing will restore me to equanimity.

    That’s my whine for the week.

    Good health and happiness to all. 😇

  38. One interesting feature of a separate half Senate election would be the focus on the candidates themselves.

    Normally they fly under the radar, but with no House distractions would voters look more closely at the candidates and vote below the line? 🙂

    P.S. Safely negotiated customs, next stop heat!!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

  40. KayJay

    My OH used to have trouble with eye drops so I put them in for him.
    BTW, if eye drops eventually lose efficiency, there is a draining operation. Suggest you consult Dr Google. 🙂

  41. ”
    Barney in Adelaide Airport says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 9:12 am
    One interesting feature of a separate half Senate election would be the focus on the candidates themselves.

    Normally they fly under the radar, but with no House distractions would voters look more closely at the candidates and vote below the line?
    ”
    That will get Lisa Singh over the line in Tassie & that appears to be the only good thing about separate Senate & House elections. 🙂

  42. Good Morning

    Fess.

    Yes thats why I am on board the cross the fingers bus with scenario 3.

    Outside chance but if evangelical women are turning against Trump as the New York Times posted we really could be seeing a tsunami not a ripple of the blue wave.

  43. This is very scary.

    Outside the Trump bubble, the president is fact-checked, scorned, doubted or challenged. His words — and there are many of them most days — appear to have lost their ability to persuade moderates and independents. To his critics, Mr. Trump is a liar and a fraud who is cheapening the office he holds and threatening the fabric of the nation’s democracy.

    But inside the bubble, it is different. Inside, supporters share Mr. Trump’s view that men are the aggrieved gender. Inside, they vent their fury at Democrats and the news media using the president’s incendiary language. Inside, they harbor Mr. Trump’s conspiracy theories and echo his dark fear of immigrants.

    Like Mr. Trump, the president’s most fervent supporters are not swayed by facts they consider inconvenient. Mr. Trump tells them the economy is the best the country has ever had, and they believe him, even if their communities are still struggling. The attacks on Mr. Trump only reinforce what they believe: He is on their side, no matter what.

    In dozens of interviews with Republican voters at 11 rallies across eight states, one thing is clear: The country is no longer divided into Red America and Blue America. It is cleaved cleanly between two realities — Trump’s America and everyone else.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/04/us/politics/trump-rally-voters.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  44. Nate Cohn tweeted

    Democrats gained by more than 3 pts in our final polls over our initial ones, and this individual-level analysis indicates that’s not merely because of identifiable changes in the composition of the sample, like more Dems https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1059454789174681600

    @PatrichRuffii tweets

    With the final Upshot data files in, we can now say that Democrats did in fact close strong in the battlegrounds. Individual-level poll response modelling shows them +3% from the early September baseline. https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1059454789174681600/photo/1

  46. @vanbadham

    There’s something incredibly touching about how the whole country coming together in the simultaneous realisation that this man is an intolerable dickhead. #auspol

  48. So what do is the Big Do talking about today?
    It turns out that the Relatable Persona is doing pash nostalgia.
    I bet every time he gets on that bus he gets a boner.

  50. lizzie (Block)
    Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 – 9:18 am
    Comment #90

    I won’t have any trouble doing the eye drops for myself.
    I will be having another pressure test in a month to check progress then back to Eye Hospital next Feb.
    I expect all will go well.
    Interesting day today with US voting.
    Be kind to yourself. ☮

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