Updated with this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a half-point gain for Labor on the two-party preferred, along with two gains on the seat projection, one each in New South Wales and Queensland. Bill Shorten also seems to be enjoying a modest upswing in his net approval trend; I still haven’t found time to sort out a trend for Scott Morrison, despite the fact that I probably have enough data to work with now. Another feature of BludgerTrack this week is that I’m now counting Wentworth as an independent seat, and following my usual policy of assuming elected minor party and independent incumbents will be re-elected.
Speaking of Wentworth, there has been no further progress in the count since last week, presumably because the Australian Electoral Commission has been waiting for the last eligible postal votes to trickle in before yesterday’s deadline. This should mean a few hundred votes will shortly be added to a score line that has Kerryn Phelps with a lead of 1783. You can find my detailed results display for Wentworth here, and BludgerTrack through the link below.
Note also the post below this one, an extensive summary of news from the Victorian election campaign. Not to mention the post below that, in which I plead for donations.
William Bowe @ #1746 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 8:26 pm
Your this leads back to itself, which may be a good thing.
I would be delighted should the slanging just stop.
Just a few days ago D&M wrote about the “innocent” callers in reading the blog ❗
Peace brother. ☮
Michael A says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 6:35 pm
The lingo is fascinating. Then, it almost goes without saying, there is the non-verbal. I’m told that 90% of our communication is non-verbal. That means that an enormous amount of meaning is created, conveyed and understood with its own ‘grammar’. We have to think of the verbal as a subset of language, and to think of ourselves as being multi-lingual if not multi-literate.
Greensborough Growler, KayJay
William B’s link works fine in a plain browser. I suspect C+.
briefly @ #1752 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 8:37 pm
100% of communication on PB is non visual or verbal!
Thanks Jen. Most of your titles seem to be on kindle, but for a change I was hoping to read something on actual paper.
William Bowe
says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 8:26 pm
I continue to be astounded by the ridicule and slander you’re continually subjected to from all points of the universe and you’re ability to display charm and dignity.
This is a joke, right? Two pages after C@t posted this, with no provocation or any higher aim in mind than to reactivate the tediousness that made the thread so completely unreadable over the weekend?
_________________________________
I think Goll believes that those photos that C@tmomma posted of 1960s Catwoman are actually selfies!
Hi Cud, a JG is not a panacea. No single policy will solve every problem. A JG should be combined with other things (including income support payments for people with constraints on their capacity to work).
I assist people with circumstances similar to those of your sister. In recent months I supported several people with their NDIS applications. The primary disability of the people I assist is usually intellectual disability, a psychosocial disability, or autism. Some live with all three.
Today the criteria for the DSP are far too strict. This is largely because of the misguided and frankly absurd idea that the federal government can run out of its own currency and should be balancing expenditures with tax receipts and aiming for a fiscal surplus (as though the government’s currency is a scarce commodity like diamonds). So I would put an end to the arbitrary, budget-focused rejections of DSP applications that happen now.
In a JG that I designed, participating in therapeutic, cultural, artistic, social or other fulfilling activities that your sister liked and that stabilised her condition or fostered recovery and increased her capacity would be available to her as a paid minimum wage job that she could do if she wanted.
A JG would be voluntary – nobody would be forced to participate.
If your sister wanted to be a paid speaker or a community educator or a peer educator who shares her experiences and insights with others, a JG could turn that aspiration into a minimum wage paid job. The worker gets to choose how many hours a week they want to do (anything up to 35 hours a week including non-JG paid work). People could combined JG work with mainstream work if they wanted.
It is a very socially valuable thing for a person with significant mental health issues, personality conditions, and other challenges and barriers to engage in activities that promote recovery or at least bring some measure of stability to their lives.
People in your sister’s circumstances deserve to be paid for that valuable work and for it to be treated as a real job and as a contribution to society. A JG can be designed with enough flexibility to recognise that fact.
If a person in your sister’s circumstances didn’t want to engage with a JG, they would receive a DSP (which I would make a lot higher than it is now).
Thank you for sharing some of your sister’s story with me.
Late Riser (Block)
Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 8:15 pm
Comment #1737
Fascinating material. I can read it sort of OK but quite slowly. I can also recall printed material with only half the verticallity ( ❓ ) of the letters shown.
The mind is amazing.
Have an extra sleep in tomorrow. I sure will.
I note your comment about William’s link. Thanks – I think.
sustainable future
Nah. The adversarial nature of politics means the positioning of the Gs drives Labor away. The Gs do not draw Labor closer. They repel Labor.
The same thing happens on the other side. The adoption of a position by Labor will usually mean the LNP adopt a counter-position – an opposing position.
The Gs serve to split opinions, not to cause them to coalesce.
Cud/Nicholas/others
I do think the moral hazard issue – ie people not working because of no incentive is the major problem with UBI
I am not too bothered by the cost because you can design your tax system to adjust, but there ARE lazy people and you do not solve social issues by leaving people with nothing to do. Idle hands make mischief etc.
A small UBI could be useful but if it is enough to live comfortably then it would be counterproductive.
That is why i prefer JG BUT sorry I do not think you can be all do goody about it. There WILL be elements of work for the dole and i think this may be unavoidable. Not everyone can be a brain surgeon.
My idea is that councils, government agencies and not-for profits should identify well, well in advance tasks that they would LIKE to do but have not the resources. In other words they are genuinely socially useful. The moment unemployment reaches some trigger point funding becomes available and jobs also are then open.
I also think that when people do NOT have jobs they should be expected to attend a sheltered workshop of some kind where they do useful things. Many would hate it BUT for those with emotional issues it would be a plus.
I am not too keen on the going sometimes to NGOs etc because i think it is inefficient and a scam but if the jobs were identified first they may be more useful
Nicholas, don’t you get it? What you’re proposing won’t work for my sister.
Income support payments? Huh? What income? She relies entirely on a disability support pension which as I explained to you is inadequate. She has no ability to work. She’s costing my mum money.
You set up a JG and she is one of those left behind. In poverty, causing a financial drain to her family.
Are you going to accept that we need something better than a DSP?
Also you talk about the DSP assessment process being far too strict. Maybe so, but its not going to go away without a UBI. It was the DSP assessment process for my sister that nearly tore my family apart (and gave a bunch of professionals some sleeplessness nights).
With a UBI this sort of thing doesn’t have to happen.
My sister would still regard a DSP as being unfair. That by virtue of the fact of being welfare that it devalues her. That’s always going to remain without a UBI and especially so if there is an assessment process of any kind.
JUst because a JG is voluntary doesn’t mean that people who want a job but can’t get a job (even a JG job) aren’t going to feel stigmatised. Of course they are.
My sister is truly incapable of doing any such thing. There is no hope for her in a world where there is only JG and besides that poorly paid and stigmatising welfare.
Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 8:41 pm
What’s that you said? I can’t hear you for the din in the next room….
It’s arguable that the existence of the Gs has contributed to the rightward drift of the LNP.
Goll @ #1738 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 8:18 pm
Thank you, Goll. Much appreciated. 🙂
The thing that really hurts me the most is when people I thought were supportive of me, knowing, as they must, the ridicule and abuse I have been subjected to over the years, turn away and seek to say supportive things and start conversations with the people that always target ME! And those people who target me are very good at making it seem as though I am the one in the wrong, using, variously, the rewriting of historical incidents, or some sort of jokey conversation starter which I am purposely excluded from.
It’s as if they believe that if they can just win the affections of others, then all will be forgiven and forgotten, and thus will I be made to seem like the embittered and angry one, because I don’t forget and I find it very hard to forgive when I have been the target of the all too numerous claims against my character and my behaviour here.
However, I can only find sustenance in the fact that I am just doing what I do here, not out of spite, but out of the need to defend myself and the party and the policies and the flesh and blood human beings that are my party’s representatives in parliaments across the land. So if I see selective editing of articles to give an undeservedly negative slant to the Labor Party, I will call it out. Time and time again. Because the people who do it are doing it for base purposes and not simply to present another side to any debate about the issues. Which is the point! There is no debate! Just biased garbage, put here as if it is considered opinion.
Which brings me to the other sort of thing I take issue with. For too long I have been the subject of negative character assessments by people who think that I view myself as all that and more here, thus they see it as their duty to be the one that succeeds in taking me down a peg or two, because it’s what I deserve! After all, I dish it out, so they say, to innocents who just don’t deserve it. Whilst at one and the same time, positively ignoring in their recounting of events, the vitriol that I am subject to on a regular basis, as if I am one of those clowns that can be punched repeatedly but will always get up again so you can do it to them some more. Such that, it is completely overlooked in the regaling of their definitive pov, what I was subject to before I came back counter-punching.
At one point I took it all to heart, until I realised that seeing me struck dumb and numb was what they were after. So I resolved to never let them have that win, because to do so would mean that I had died inside and they had succeeded in killing me off. That their injections of poison over the internet had worked. But I’m Irish Australian you see, and we’re used to being downtrodden but always fighting back. And surviving. And prevailing. In whatever little corner of the world we choose to inhabit.
Now, you can call all of this, ‘playing the victim card’, if you like, but I know that’s just not the case because I am no victim, I’ve simply learned the lesson that, to be able to look yourself in the mirror, you have to fight on your feet, not capitulate on your knees.
New rule in manual; if the focus group come up with ,”repeated thumbs up”, “novelty caps” and “saying fair dinkum”, test for drugs.
briefly @ #1762 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 8:49 pm
Race 7 numbers 3 and 11.
Enough with the bus sprocket. It’s an old joke already. let it go.
Why would anyone even SAY these things?
and…
I mean, what the fuck does any of the above actually mean?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ghost-bus-the-scomo-express-hits-the-runway-rather-than-the-road-20181105-p50e2g.html
I see The ScoMoFo Express has made it to Bob Katter’s electorate…
[‘…and played down the role of climate change policy in deciding the outcome.’]
This what Sharma said in the Fairfax article posted by cat.
With a 19 percent swing against him, his party – partly due to climate change – maybe he should consider his options.
Thanks nath – haven’t read Costain so I might take a look
Hey nath, I thought you had a sense of humour..
sprocket_
says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 8:55 pm
Hey nath, I thought you had a sense of humour..
_____________________________
I do mate. It’s not that funny. Put up a slogan like:
At least I’m not Dutton!
or
Here for a limited time only!
Bushfire Bill @ #1770 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 8:52 pm
Howarth sees dead people and is really worried that it’s him!
Yeah, Andrew- Warrior King is the only one available in print – though the two via Escape are available in large print … but they’re like $45 a copy! (Of which I get next to nothing)
I tend to read on my iPad mostly these days (despite my initial resistance)
Mr Bowe,
So you thought it okay that nath suggested that Bill Shorten would do anything to win votes, even pimp out his wife, Chloe?
Anyway, as your linking was faulty, tell me exactly what it was that I said that you found so objectionable.
The fact that Scotty thinks his slogan festooned blue bus is not going to be pilloried is what is funny – you really have picked one who is going to destroy the franchise
Her Indoors and I are currently in tears and holding in our sides at the Photoshop efforts above.
Seriously funny.
Thing is Nicholas, my sister wants a job and feels worthless without a job.
But at the same time is incapable of holding any job, even a JG one.
And the DSP is stigmatising and too low.
What are you going to do about that?
C@tmomma
says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 9:00 pm
Mr Bowe,
So you thought it okay that nath suggested that Bill Shorten would do anything to win votes, even pimp out his wife, Chloe?
Anyway, as your linking was faulty, tell me exactly what it was that I said that you found so objectionable.
___________________________
Oh not this again. I said he would give Rupert her phone number. And I’ve also repeatedly said sorry for even mentioning her.
I love the “work together as a pack” one 🙂
The blood is great work too
sprocket_ @ #1780 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 6:00 pm
Even worse is he has a marketing background!
Agree, Sprocket. It’s got everything but a free set of steak knives stencilled on the exterior.
I am enjoying the bus pics, sprocket. 🙂
(Oh dear, I’ve done it now, said something supportive of you. Next thing you know, people will be accusing us of knowing each other! 😉 )
Next you’ll be saying nice things about me C@t!
And C@t you also said I did terrible things to Lizzie which was a complete fabrication.
Ok, one more – nath can scroll on by..
briefly:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 8:37 pm
—————————————
Since the Sumerians stated this caper about 5000 years ago, writing has only ever been a stunted facsimile of real person-to-person communication, aimed at efficiency of time, space and material in scribing and storage. No wonder it only ever captures a title of what is meant.
Definitely the last word on the bus – but the most poignant iMHO
C@t, don’t take any comfort at all in what Goll had to say. Either they’re joking, or there’s something wrong with them. The facts of your recent conduct are as follows. On the weekend, you were central to the worst disturbance to afflict the blog in several months. Whatever else might be said about the other participants, all of them had moved on by today – except for you. There you are, three pages back, doing your level best to conjure it all up again out of nothing. Since then, we’ve had two lengthy exercises in tone-deaf, passive-aggressive self-pity, the first of which involved you whining about being called a bully, even as you played the classic bully’s gambit of taking a swing at someone out of the blue and then crying foul when they stood up for themselves. Followed by your last comment to me – the most bewilderingly idiotic non-sequitur I’ve encountered in quite some time.
Lift your game, please.
nath:
A picture is worth a thousand words, the bus sign sprocket_posted at 8:55PM relaying most that’s wrong with this no-good government, its satellites.
Boerwar @ #1703 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 7:08 pm
That was my first question.
And, is Morrison taking Leave Without Pay to go electioneering for his Party?
http://www.theshovel.com.au/2018/11/05/virgin-australia-passengers-to-be-asked-to-sing-national-anthem-before-take-off/
Love the Shovel. On a somewhat related note when I flew in the US I was intrigued at passengers’ applause whenever the plane landed. It felt like an insult to the pilots – as if everyone was expecting they wouldn’t land safely at their destination.
Jim Chalmers calls out the Cuts Express
https://twitter.com/JEChalmers/status/1059327202116886528
(something about the brain correcting the spelling comes to mind)
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/05/scott-morrison-a-bus-and-a-fair-dinkum-internet-meme
“The prime minister’s tour and ‘daggy dad’ media strategy have proved a viral recipe for ridicule”
“…my sister wants a job and feels worthless without a job.
But at the same time is incapable of holding any job, even a JG one.
And the DSP is stigmatising and too low.”
Maybe too many of us have been caught up with the prevailing climate of stigmatising welfare. If someone is incapable of holding a job on account of physical or metal disability, then the social contract has been that they receive basic taxpayer support, plus the support of their families. There is no stigma, or at least should be none. Your sister should not feel stigmatised because she can’t work. Maybe she has worked in the past but can no longer do so for whatever reason. In some societies, including the one that our current Government wants to create, such people, if they have no family able or willing to support them, become street beggars. Australia can do better than that.
sprocket_
One for the road
Now that’s better poroti.