BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

The Coalition loses much of the gain from its tentative recent recovery, according to this week’s poll aggregate reading.

Updated with this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a half-point gain for Labor on the two-party preferred, along with two gains on the seat projection, one each in New South Wales and Queensland. Bill Shorten also seems to be enjoying a modest upswing in his net approval trend; I still haven’t found time to sort out a trend for Scott Morrison, despite the fact that I probably have enough data to work with now. Another feature of BludgerTrack this week is that I’m now counting Wentworth as an independent seat, and following my usual policy of assuming elected minor party and independent incumbents will be re-elected.

Speaking of Wentworth, there has been no further progress in the count since last week, presumably because the Australian Electoral Commission has been waiting for the last eligible postal votes to trickle in before yesterday’s deadline. This should mean a few hundred votes will shortly be added to a score line that has Kerryn Phelps with a lead of 1783. You can find my detailed results display for Wentworth here, and BludgerTrack through the link below.

Note also the post below this one, an extensive summary of news from the Victorian election campaign. Not to mention the post below that, in which I plead for donations.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,953 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 35 of 40
1 … 34 35 36 … 40

  1. I really do find it amusing how I am always the one called out for being a bully, when, as it was pointed out yesterday with definitions, I am nothing of the sort. I also find it amusing that, in order to try and pre-empt my responses, should I try and defend myself from yet another attack by someone who just can’t cope with being challenged, that I am then accused of ‘playing the victim’. I mean, talk about trying to have it both ways and get me coming and going. Still, I am unmoved by such tawdry taunts because I am confident that I am stating fact. No matter how others may wish to twist what I have said using pretzel logic., or rewrite history to cover their bare arse visible through a hospital gown. 🙂

  2. Psyclaw:
    Monday, November 5, 2018 at 7:09 pm
    ————————————-

    My experience reading your “offending” post proves your point. When I first read your post, my eyes literally saw “word” where you inadvertently typed “eord”. It is very common, the mind using habitually observed context to override the symbols actually seen by the eye with the symbols it usually encounters in that context.

  6. BW,

    Scooter would do far less damage if he just stayed up the back of the bus acting like a halfwit.

    Instead he comes out of the bus and demonstrates the halfwit ain’t an act.

  8. Nath … you might call me multi-talented (others might say I cannot decide …) I’m published in historical fiction (my first love), romance (with a little bit of the ‘magical’ – which they call magical realism) and contemporary young adult based on mythology … oh and I have an erotica published, as well.

    Like I said …. cannot decide!

  11. Still, things have improved because the last prime minister but one used to live in a tent.

    A TENT!

    Looxury.

    When I was boy I had t’go posh private school on scholarship 6 hours a day 5 days a week and we lived in unit in Vaucluse!

    #briantrumblethefifthyorkshireman

  13. Boerwar, I have a fairly deep voice for a woman and I tend to come a across a little monotone on recordings.

    I was going to say that it is an expensive business to make audio books … my current publisher (and the previous one, for that matter) are not likely to spend the money unless a book is a ‘best seller’. Sadly, I cannot claim that ….

  19. I like Austen but not a groupie. I actually like murder mysteries (especially modern British crime fiction) if I am reading myself. I try to stay away from the genre I am writing for fear of accidentally mimicking the author’s voice.

    Right now I am doing academic/non-fiction writing so I guess there’s not much chance of that!

  21. Right now there is enough unused real capacity in the economy for the federal government to increase its total spending by 10 to 15 percent without having to raise taxes to make the extra spending non-inflationary.

    But increasing total federal spending by 50 percent in a non-inflationary way would require heavy tax increases.

    Boerwar, you are right that the current maximum base rate of the pension ($21,700) is not really enough to live on unless you own your own home.

    That is why there are other welfare payments like the pension supplement, the energy supplement, and Commonwealth rent assistance. And even with those supplemental payments, it’s difficult to participate fully in the life of the community on that income if you rent in the private rental market.

    The point is that even a $21,700 a year UBI that replaced all existing welfare and social security spending would require total federal spending to increase by “well over 50 percent” according to Steven Hail of the University of Adelaide.

    And in order to make that amount of extra spending non-inflationary, it would be necessary to hike taxes very significantly, and not just on the rich (who have a low marginal propensity to spend).

    UBI won’t survive the scrutiny it will get if it ever gets adopted by the ALP (and I doubt that the ALP will propose it).

    Few voters will support massive tax increases for the sake of a mythical right to live on other people’s output without a person contributing something that reflects their capacities and circumstances.

    People like reciprocity. They hate freeloading.

    We should lift the Age Pension and the DSP and the Sickness Benefit very significantly.

    We should use public sector job creation to offer jobs that meet the particular circumstances and needs of people who face barriers and challenges to employment, and to make the labour market so tight that private sector employers are scrambling to design similarly inclusive jobs so that they can get the workers they need.

    In a JG world, there would be fewer people who need a DSP (although we must always make it available to people for whom it is necessary and reasonable).

    When the unemployed are asked why they want a job, income is usually not the first or even the second or third reason they name.

    People say they want to contribute.

    They want to be useful.

    They want to be good at something.

    They want to be recognised and valued by others.

    They want to be less isolated.

    They want their children to respect them.

    There is much more to a job than income.

    The empirical research shows that a post-work UBI-based vision for society is a vision that isn’t shared by the most marginalised people in our community.

    We should meet everybody’s desires for paid work first. We should widen the definition of paid work to encompass social value, environmental sustainability, meaning, and inclusion.

    A UBI would be macroeconomically unstable.

    A UBI would not be compatible with the cultural norm of reciprocity.

    A UBI would not respond to what the unemployed are saying they want.

    A UBI would require whopping great tax hikes that would be electoral poison.

    There are many reasons why a JG is vastly better than a UBI.

    A JG is not a panacea, but when combined with appropriate income support for those who need it and active use of discretionary fiscal policy, it will make a massive contribution to eradicating poverty and unemployment.

  22. The Liberal Party spinners must have been dizzy after this:

    The Liberal Party is hoping the former diplomat makes a second attempt to win Wentworth at the federal election due next year, thinking the seat can be retaken because Dr Phelps only won by 1849 votes.

  24. I also love fantasy literature (Donaldson’s Covenant series and such) but I need to not be writing at all while I immerse myself in those because I tend to read from morning to night without coming up for air!

  25. Prime Minister Scott Morrison will win the May 2019 federal election, Bill Shorten will be a massive turnoff for the swinging voters. We will be in a budget surplus by the end of the year, the first budget surplus since Howard – a huge milestone. Morrison is also a far better campaigner than the failed Turnbull was.

  26. What a vacuous windbag.

    Asked whether his Queensland tour amounted to a quasi election campaign, Mr Morrison replied: “This is me doing what I do. I’m out, I’m listening, I’m hearing and I’m doing. That’s what I’m doing as a Prime Minister.”

  27. Nicholas @ #1719 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 7:54 pm

    Right now there is enough unused real capacity in the economy for the federal government to increase its total spending by 10 to 15 percent without having to raise taxes to make the extra spending non-inflationary.

    But increasing total federal spending by 50 percent in a non-inflationary way would require heavy tax increases.

    Boerwar, you are right that the current maximum base rate of the pension ($21,700) is not really enough to live on unless you own your own home.

    That is why there are other welfare payments like the pension supplement, the energy supplement, and Commonwealth rent assistance. And even with those supplemental payments, it’s difficult to participate fully in the life of the community on that income if you rent in the private rental market.

    The point is that even a $21,700 a year UBI that replaced all existing welfare and social security spending would require total federal spending to increase by “well over 50 percent” according to Steven Hail of the University of Adelaide.

    And in order to make that amount of extra spending non-inflationary, it would be necessary to hike taxes very significantly, and not just on the rich (who have a low marginal propensity to spend).

    UBI won’t survive the scrutiny it will get if it ever gets adopted by the ALP (and I doubt that the ALP will propose it).

    Few voters will support massive tax increases for the sake of a mythical right to live on other people’s output without a person contributing something that reflects their capacities and circumstances.

    People like reciprocity. They hate freeloading.

    We should lift the Age Pension and the DSP and the Sickness Benefit very significantly.

    We should use public sector job creation to offer jobs that meet the particular circumstances and needs of people who face barriers and challenges to employment, and to make the labour market so tight that private sector employers are scrambling to design similarly inclusive jobs so that they can get the workers they need.

    In a JG world, there would be fewer people who need a DSP (although we must always make it available to people for whom it is necessary and reasonable).

    When the unemployed are asked why they want a job, income is usually not the first or even the second or third reason they name.

    People say they want to contribute.

    They want to be useful.

    They want to be good at something.

    They want to be recognised and valued by others.

    They want to be less isolated.

    They want their children to respect them.

    There is much more to a job than income.

    The empirical research shows that a post-work UBI-based vision for society is a vision that isn’t shared by the most marginalised people in our community.

    We should meet everybody’s desires for paid work first. We should widen the definition of paid work to encompass social value, environmental sustainability, meaning, and inclusion.

    A UBI would be macroeconomically unstable.

    A UBI would not be compatible with the cultural norm of reciprocity.

    A UBI would not respond to what the unemployed are saying they want.

    A UBI would require whopping great tax hikes that would be electoral poison.

    There are many reasons why a JG is vastly better than a UBI.

    A JG is not a panacea, but when combined with appropriate income support for those who need it and active use of discretionary fiscal policy, it will make a massive contribution to eradicating poverty and unemployment.

    You really should start all your long form exaggerations with “Once upon a time” and end them with “No one lived happily ever after”!

  28. ItzaDream @ #1725 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 7:56 pm

    What a vacuous windbag.

    Asked whether his Queensland tour amounted to a quasi election campaign, Mr Morrison replied: “This is me doing what I do. I’m out, I’m listening, I’m hearing and I’m doing. That’s what I’m doing as a Prime Minister.”

    One thing you can put your money on, Scott Morrison will never give you a straight answer.

  30. Nicholas, what do you mean by “appropriate income support for those who need it”. What level of support? Please answer this after you’ve read my post at 6:27.

  32. Bree @ #1724 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 6:56 pm

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison will win the May 2019 federal election, Bill Shorten will be a massive turnoff for the swinging voters. We will be in a budget surplus by the end of the year, the first budget surplus since Howard – a huge milestone. Morrison is also a far better campaigner than the failed Turnbull was.

    I miss Wayne.

  34. “Nath … you might call me multi-talented (others might say I cannot decide …) I’m published in historical fiction (my first love), romance (with a little bit of the ‘magical’ – which they call magical realism) and contemporary young adult based on mythology … oh and I have an erotica published, as well.”

    Jen – I’m about to take some leave and want to tuck into a new book. Can you please recommend one of yours that’s in print? I’ll give either historical fiction or erotica a go. Thanks in advance.

  35. ItzaDream @ #1724 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 7:56 pm

    What a vacuous windbag.

    Asked whether his Queensland tour amounted to a quasi election campaign, Mr Morrison replied: “This is me doing what I do. I’m out, I’m listening, I’m hearing and I’m doing. That’s what I’m doing as a Prime Minister.”

    The only thing Scott is running for is the bus!.

  36. As I have said in the past I am not as convinced with MMT as Nicholas is but there are some very clever folks promoting this idea and perhaps should not be dismissed as quickly as some here tend to do – it is some times easier to have knee jerk reactions to new concepts.

    I and others have posted this lecture in the past. It is quite long at about an hour and a half. Regarding the Job Guarantee try watching from about 1 hour and ten minutes.

    Steven Hail’s presentation on modern money and the “budget emergency”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBpm5sVmGYc

  37. On the topic of ‘eords’

    https://www.ecenglish.com/learnenglish/lessons/can-you-read

    I cnduo’t bvleiee taht I culod aulaclty uesdtannrd waht I was rdnaieg. Unisg the icndeblire pweor of the hmuan mnid, aocdcrnig to rseecrah at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dseno’t mttaer in waht oderr the lterets in a wrod are, the olny irpoamtnt tihng is taht the frsit and lsat ltteer be in the rhgit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it whoutit a pboerlm. Tihs is bucseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey ltteer by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Aaznmig, huh? Yaeh and I awlyas tghhuot slelinpg was ipmorantt! See if yuor fdreins can raed tihs too.

  39. C@t
    I continue to be astounded by the ridicule and slander you’re continually subjected to from all points of the universe and you’re ability to display charm and dignity.
    Keep up the good work.

  40. I wish labor would stop standing in green leaning seats. They are damaging the progressive cause.

    there – see how stupid you all sound with that never ending meme.

    You go hard in the seats you might win. The greens are most likely to win progressive leaning electorates. The only way we can be sure Labor is progressive in government is to drag them to left have them reliant on the greens and progressive cross-benchers in upper and lower houses. Seeing labor having to be progressive to hold once blue ribbon seats is an absolute joy to me. The Greens give the labor left clout they did not have for decades. Labor has so much talent and good people, but it also has caucus and right wing power players such as Marles, Shorten, Kelly, Bowen, Danby, Kitching, Collins, etc etc. The Greens keep labor and australia to the left.

  41. Has someone told Morrison about the propensity of his Party to throw leaders under a bu…
    …oh, wait…
    … so THAT is why he is hiding the bus in Qld.

  42. The historical is available in print in Australia through booktopia (not sure of other retailers but it is only print-on-demand here … comes in a couple of days but was pretty exxie!) Publisher is American. – and is about ancient Egypt … so if you’re not inclined to that period of history …..

    The current title is called “Warrior King”

  43. sustainable future @ #1740 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 8:19 pm

    I wish labor would stop standing in green leaning seats. They are damaging the progressive cause.

    there – see how stupid you all sound with that never ending meme.

    You go hard in the seats you might win. The greens are most likely to win progressive leaning electorates. The only way we can be sure Labor is progressive in government is to drag them to left have them reliant on the greens and progressive cross-benchers in upper and lower houses. Seeing labor having to be progressive to hold once blue ribbon seats is an absolute joy to me. The Greens give the labor left clout they did not have for decades. Labor has so much talent and good people, but it also has caucus and right wing power players such as Marles, Shorten, Kelly, Bowen, Danby, Kitching, Collins, etc etc. The Greens keep labor and australia to the left.

    When I hear alleged “Progressive”, I reach for my revolver!

  46. I continue to be astounded by the ridicule and slander you’re continually subjected to from all points of the universe and you’re ability to display charm and dignity.

    This is a joke, right? Two pages after C@t posted this, with no provocation or any higher aim in mind than to reactivate the tediousness that made the thread so completely unreadable over the weekend?

  48. I’m not sure if they have UBI in China, but on my recent trip to the Great Wall there was a posse of the comrades sweeping the highway.

  49. William Bowe @ #1746 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 8:26 pm

    I continue to be astounded by the ridicule and slander you’re continually subjected to from all points of the universe and you’re ability to display charm and dignity.

    This is a joke, right? Two pages after C@t posted this, with no provocation or any higher aim in mind than to reactivate the tediousness that made the thread so completely unreadable over the weekend?

    Your link is farked!

  50. jenauthor
    says:
    Monday, November 5, 2018 at 7:41 pm
    Nath … you might call me multi-talented (others might say I cannot decide …) I’m published in historical fiction (my first love), romance (with a little bit of the ‘magical’ – which they call magical realism) and contemporary young adult based on mythology … oh and I have an erotica published, as well.
    Like I said …. cannot decide!
    __________________________
    Thanks Jen, I love historical fiction myself, having just finished Maurice Druon’s translated series on the House of Capet.

    I think the finest historical fiction I’ve read is Thomas B Costain’s Plantagenet series. Also his White & Gold novel as well. cheers.

Comments Page 35 of 40
1 … 34 35 36 … 40

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *