BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

The Coalition loses much of the gain from its tentative recent recovery, according to this week’s poll aggregate reading.

Updated with this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a half-point gain for Labor on the two-party preferred, along with two gains on the seat projection, one each in New South Wales and Queensland. Bill Shorten also seems to be enjoying a modest upswing in his net approval trend; I still haven’t found time to sort out a trend for Scott Morrison, despite the fact that I probably have enough data to work with now. Another feature of BludgerTrack this week is that I’m now counting Wentworth as an independent seat, and following my usual policy of assuming elected minor party and independent incumbents will be re-elected.

Speaking of Wentworth, there has been no further progress in the count since last week, presumably because the Australian Electoral Commission has been waiting for the last eligible postal votes to trickle in before yesterday’s deadline. This should mean a few hundred votes will shortly be added to a score line that has Kerryn Phelps with a lead of 1783. You can find my detailed results display for Wentworth here, and BludgerTrack through the link below.

Note also the post below this one, an extensive summary of news from the Victorian election campaign. Not to mention the post below that, in which I plead for donations.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,953 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  3. I thought with Virgin Airlines you would have to pay to stand up and sing the National Anthem? It would be regarded as part of the entertainment package.

  7. Cud Chewer @ #1787 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 9:03 pm

    Next you’ll be saying nice things about me C@t!

    I was just about to! Lol!

    No, truly, your story about your sister brought tears to my eyes as I went over in my mind the conversation I had today when I ran into an old friend that I hadn’t seen for years. She has 2 sons, as I have 2 sons, both about the same age as my boys. So, of course, the first thing you do is ask how they are going. Well, it broke my heart to hear how badly her eldest son was going. Apparently he is suffering from drug-induced psychosis, there is a lot of it going around now, but the kicker was that the person who introduced him to drugs was his own father! A dead hippie, good-for-nothing, who lives on the Far North Coast of NSW doing bugger all for a living.

    What was even worse was that, when his own son, his own flesh and blood, started exhibiting symptoms of psychosis, what did this waste of space and oxygen do? He sent him packing back to his mother for her to deal with it! Which she has been, but she looks like she has aged twice as quickly as I have!

    Anyway, I gave her 2 of the biggest hugs I could muster in the middle of the Woy Woy shops, with people scurrying hither and yon and told her that we were still living in the same place if she needed us.

    And I thought myself so lucky that both my young men had seen too many of their mates go down this road and were determined not to follow them.

    Also, that my youngest’s medical issues pretty much prevent him from taking anything without dire consequences and his older brother is one of these, ‘my body is my temple’ types. 😆

  9. Reachteled tonight. Started with Fed voting intention then moved on to coal and then Adani.

    As it included questions like “Did you know coal mining contributed x billion dollars to the Qld Government” & ” Are illegal protests against projects with full environmental approvals hurting the economy”, I concluded it was conducted on behalf of the coal miners.

  10. I am LOVING tonight’s Media Watch: journos pissed
    off at other journos ripping off journos.

    Today’s case: The Daily Mail versus The Rest Of The Media.

  11. Cud, the Age Pension and the DSP and other government payments are described as income support payments even if they are the person’s sole income

    You can see for yourself here:

    https://www.humanservices.gov.au/individuals/enablers/income-support-payment-description/34696

    I think that I have made a lot of effort to explain what I have learned about the topic, answer your questions, and refer you to relevant reports and articles (which you don’t read). I’m engaging with you in good faith but I sense that you are not reciprocating. It feels very one-way, with me answering question after question and doing all the listening.

    You might be under a lot of pressure at the moment. I hope that you have suitable support. I believe that talking at cross purposes with a stranger on a blog will not support you.

    If you have the energy and mindset to have a genuine dialogue, I would be happy to do that with you one day.

    If you’d like to engage with other people who could have a crack at answering your questions, I strongly recommend Steven Hail’s Facebook group. It is called

    Modern Monetary Theory – Economics For Sustainability Prosperity

    There might be people there who could answer your questions better than I can.

    Go well, Cud.

  12. 5 November 2018 — 7:30pm
    The self-styled “ScoMo Express” might be tearing up the Bruce Highway this week, but for the most part, Prime Minister Scott Morrison is touring Queensland by jet.

    Pictures of the big bus emblazoned with the PM’s face flooded his social media accounts on Monday, at the start of a four-day trek from the Gold Coast to Townsville.

    However, Fairfax Media has confirmed Mr Morrison and his staff will travel for most of the 1500 kilometre journey aboard a Royal Australian Air Force VIP jet.

    The ghost bus will be left with only its driver on board for several key legs, including the 400 kilometre-plus stretch from the Sunshine Coast to Gladstone.

    While Mr Morrison’s office stressed the cost of the ScoMo Express was paid out of Liberal Party coffers, taxpayers will foot the bill for the VIP plane and hotel costs.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ghost-bus-the-scomo-express-hits-the-runway-rather-than-the-road-20181105-p50e2g.html

  14. William Bowe @ #1792 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 9:12 pm

    C@t, don’t take any comfort at all in what Goll had to say. Either they’re joking, or there’s something wrong with them. The facts of your recent conduct are as follows. On the weekend, you were central to the worst disturbance to afflict the blog in several months. Whatever else might be said about the other participants, all of them had moved on by today – except for you. There you are, three pages back, doing your level best to conjure it all up again out of nothing. Since then, we’ve had two lengthy exercises in tone-deaf, passive-aggressive self-pity, the first of which involved you whining about being called a bully, even as you played the classic bully’s gambit of taking a swing at someone out of the blue and then crying foul when they stood up for themselves. Followed by your last comment to me – the most bewilderingly idiotic non-sequitur I’ve encountered in quite some time.

    Lift your game, please.

    Depends on your perspective, but okay.

  15. Puffy:

    Nothing but scorn and derision for the Virgin vets stunt at work today. And bear in mind we live in a town that has spent 4 years making mileage out of the Anzacs via WW1 commemorative events, so you’d think if anyone was going to love the idea of prioritising veterans boarding planes it’d be us. But apparently there is a Peak Veteran and the in-flight announcements and priority boarding was it. 😀

  17. While Mr Morrison’s office stressed the cost of the ScoMo Express was paid out of Liberal Party coffers, taxpayers will foot the bill for the VIP plane and hotel costs.

    Why are we paying for any of it? Essentially Morrison is embarking on a national farewell tour, something that if the tables were turned and it was a Labor PM he and his colleagues would be screaming blue murder about.

  22. Surely this bus/VIP RAAF jet tour of Queensland is the harbinger for an early election. Why else would this former tourism executive bother to attempt to impress my home state with his silly stunts, with those photoshopped pics of the bus appearing everywhere in social media? Abbott, Dutton, even Bishop must be rubbing their hands with glee. Shorten’s obviously taken the view, give him (Morrison) enough rope.

  23. Rodger Shanahan puts it perfectly:

    Rodger Shanahan, a veteran who now works as a research fellow at the Lowy Institute, accused the government and organisations of using veterans for branding.

    He said Australia was in danger of reaching “peak veteran’” as governments, media and business all tried to capitalise.

    “It seems to be all about branding and veterans are the brand du jour,” he said. “I think they should dial it down a little.”

  25. The tour bus photoshop gig may be becoming a little overdone, but , hey, my votes are for @sprocket at 907 pm and @poroti at 923 pm Monday. Love your work PBers!

  26. Re. Combatting ibsomnia…

    Have to that I’ve always found “counting backwards from 33” works every time, usually within 5 minutes.

    At the slightest hesitation in counting I start back at 33 again. Keep doing this until I fall asleep. Dunno why it works (and I’ve really tried to figure it out, but I usually fall asleep while analysing).

    Either that or try reading The Collected Poll Bludger Posts Of Nicholas.

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/nov/05/seven-ways-to-address-insomnia

  28. He said Australia was in danger of reaching “peak veteran’” as governments, media and business all tried to capitalise.

    Hey! Peak Veteran was my term – see my reply to Puffy.

  31. Confessions:

    [‘Begging for a caption!’]

    Oh why, oh why did I leave my incredibly well-paying practice in Double Bay for this? I thought I’d lose, only standing for further public adulation, leading to the mayoralty of Sydney, getting my own back on Clover after she backed an Indi. And then those stupid Tories backed Hanson’s motion in the Senate, with Morrison blurting out a brain-fart to transfer our embassy to Jerusalem. But all’s not lost: I’ll refer myself to the High Court under s.44.

  33. Nicholas it doesn’t particular matter if they are described as “income support” payments. The reality is that for a lot of people they are the only source of income.

    Now do I have your agreement in principle that some people who are current on a DSP do indeed actually need a better income?

  36. Oh why, oh why did I leave my incredibly well-paying practice in Double Bay for this. I thought I’d lose, only standing for further public adulation, leading to the mayoralty of Sydney, getting my own back on Clover after she backed an Indi. And then those stupid Tories backed Hanson’s motion in the Senate, with Morrison blurting out a brain-fart to transfer our embassy to Jerusalem. But all’s not lost: I’ll refer myself to the High Court under s.44.

    Well. I was thinking more along the lines of ‘Yes. One step at a time.’ But yours works too.

  38. BB

    Surely: “Now with 19 fewer Nazis than last week!”

    You can’t fight Nazism with bad English. Remember loose lips sink ships!

  39. zoomster, that is really really cruel, I stumbled across it earlier today, it would never have occurred to one as innocent as me that it was a cruelty that could be shared. But in the next hypothetical incident with a shark, I’ll be rooting for the shark.

  43. I have long thought that the beginning of the end for Abbott as PM was when people started laughing at him. Sir Prince Phillip was a prime example.

    We are what, 10 weeks into Morrison’s reign?

    He is the subject of ridicule already.

    Another McMahon perhaps?

  45. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, November 5, 2018 at 8:41 pm

    Race 7 numbers 3 and 11.

    Love Me Do and Wistful in the Dream A Lot Stakes….nice 🙂

  48. Gecko says:
    Monday, November 5, 2018 at 10:19 pm
    “This is a state that has a go,” PM @ScottMorrisonMP says of Queensland.

    FMD

    Oratory, by Born to Shout.

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