BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

The Coalition loses much of the gain from its tentative recent recovery, according to this week’s poll aggregate reading.

Updated with this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a half-point gain for Labor on the two-party preferred, along with two gains on the seat projection, one each in New South Wales and Queensland. Bill Shorten also seems to be enjoying a modest upswing in his net approval trend; I still haven’t found time to sort out a trend for Scott Morrison, despite the fact that I probably have enough data to work with now. Another feature of BludgerTrack this week is that I’m now counting Wentworth as an independent seat, and following my usual policy of assuming elected minor party and independent incumbents will be re-elected.

Speaking of Wentworth, there has been no further progress in the count since last week, presumably because the Australian Electoral Commission has been waiting for the last eligible postal votes to trickle in before yesterday’s deadline. This should mean a few hundred votes will shortly be added to a score line that has Kerryn Phelps with a lead of 1783. You can find my detailed results display for Wentworth here, and BludgerTrack through the link below.

Note also the post below this one, an extensive summary of news from the Victorian election campaign. Not to mention the post below that, in which I plead for donations.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,953 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. Confessions @ #1815 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 9:10 pm


    Nothing but scorn and derision for the Virgin vets stunt at work today. And bear in mind we live in a town that has spent 4 years making mileage out of the Anzacs via WW1 commemorative events, so you’d think if anyone was going to love the idea of prioritising veterans boarding planes it’d be us. But apparently there is a Peak Veteran and the in-flight announcements and priority boarding was it. 😀

    As expected. No Veteran worth their salt would want that. A bit more money for mental health programs and not having to fight DVA to have conditions recognised as war-related would welcome, instead.

  2. Jeffemu,

    You’re cool mate. But don’t accuse me of being a drongos supporter. North Queensland.

    So look after Val Holmes for us this year before he returns home.

  3. Fess:

    “Shameless. Where are Republicans on this? They’d have pitched the mother of all fits if Obama had acted in this way. This is one of Trump’s midterm campaign rallies.

    Abby D. PhillipVerified account@abbydphillip
    14m14 minutes ago
    In 2017, the WH promised Trump would not use AF1 as a political prop. In 2018, the WH is using AF1 as a political prop”

    That plane used as a prop is actually a small jet (an older 737?) that has been painted in Airforce One livery. I don’t have a problem with that as a campaign stunt, and I hate Trump.

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