Updated with this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a half-point gain for Labor on the two-party preferred, along with two gains on the seat projection, one each in New South Wales and Queensland. Bill Shorten also seems to be enjoying a modest upswing in his net approval trend; I still haven’t found time to sort out a trend for Scott Morrison, despite the fact that I probably have enough data to work with now. Another feature of BludgerTrack this week is that I’m now counting Wentworth as an independent seat, and following my usual policy of assuming elected minor party and independent incumbents will be re-elected.
Speaking of Wentworth, there has been no further progress in the count since last week, presumably because the Australian Electoral Commission has been waiting for the last eligible postal votes to trickle in before yesterday’s deadline. This should mean a few hundred votes will shortly be added to a score line that has Kerryn Phelps with a lead of 1783. You can find my detailed results display for Wentworth here, and BludgerTrack through the link below.
Note also the post below this one, an extensive summary of news from the Victorian election campaign. Not to mention the post below that, in which I plead for donations.
briefly @ #1891 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 10:39 pm
I see where shame enters, but pride is how you feel about yourself. It is not given. The inverse of pride is honour, which is given freely to another. At times they are mislabelled.
One of the things I will be watching closely is the NBNco board, CEO and senior management being defenestrated. Following that, the Labor comms minister revealing the fraud and lies. From the dishonest and deceitful strategic review to the real facts about the real cost of fibre to the ugly truth about SCO (the too hard basket of addresses where their testing has revealed that the copper is too bad to support FTTN). Industrial scale Schadenfreude.
Most of all I want to see Turnbull’s reputation trashed and I want to see him remembered as the incompetent vandal who pissed $50 billion against the wall and set the country back years.
Cud Chewer
Yes, so much it hurts. The arrogance and stupidity is appalling. Although, if deliberate the adjectives are worse.
Confessions says:
Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 12:04 am
Shameless. Where are Republicans on this? They’d have pitched the mother of all fits if Obama had acted in this way. This is one of Trump’s midterm campaign rallies.
Visually, Trump is trying to make himself synonymous with country. Loyalty to country and loyalty to Trump are meant to be interchangeable according to this pic. I think this over-reach will just make millions of voters feel sick. They will feel like they’re the victims of a robbery.
Americans can stop Trump by voting. I reckon they will.
I won’t believe the polls until I see the actual results. Sorry pollsters.
briefly:
Trump is using the office of Potus to further his own business interests. Republicans who bemoaned the Washington swamp need to stand up and take action.
Late Riser says:
Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 12:07 am
briefly @ #1891 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 10:39 pm
Confessions says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 11:29 pm
briefly:
It’s telling that Qantas quickly nixed the idea of doing the same.
Yes. I’m very glad they did. I know I’ve been tapping on this drum a lot, but is it yet another example of how “shame” runs through so many responses. The objectors to the concept said they felt service personnel would be “embarrassed”…which is to say, they would feel some kind of unwanted attention; that they could be attracting “shame”. This is a fascinating aspect of human behaviour. Shame and it’s inverse, pride, are like loose change in our pockets – always ready to be produced and spent.
I see where shame enters, but pride is how you feel about yourself. It is not given. The inverse of pride is honour, which is given freely to another. At times they are mislabelled.
I’ve usually found it easy to feel pride in others…or to feel collective pride because of the endeavours of others. In any case, I reckon these very basic reflexes condition political affiliation and approval/disapproval.
I’ve been distracted tonight and late on the bus memes, but I have to say that Scott Morrison is now either “Both Thumbs Morrison” or just plain “Thumbs” for me. (And does anyone recall “two-thumbs” Palmer?)
https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.353%2C$multiply_1%2C$ratio_1.776846%2C$width_1059%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/w_780/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/2852954e0097a46d609435ac4b097eadb38b5f80
Thumbs is what he sticks in the air, but “all thumbs” is how he embarrasses us.
Confessions says:
Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 12:21 am
briefly:
Trump is using the office of Potus to further his own business interests. Republicans who bemoaned the Washington swamp need to stand up and take action.
…and since the Republicans are Trump’s soldiers, they will be ejected by voters. The Republicans are highly unified. They will not buckle, but voters can and will send them on their way.
briefly @ #1907 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 11:21 pm
Also true. I’d say you honour them and join with them.
Late Riser says:
Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 12:24 am
briefly @ #1907 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 11:21 pm
I’ve usually found it easy to feel pride in others…or to feel collective pride because of the endeavours of others.
Also true. I’d say you honour them and join with them.
Yes….they’re correlates or accompanists…
briefly, big warm smiles.
More talk on separate half senate/ house elections
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/drastic-dual-election-plan-considered-as-government-tries-to-regain-ground-20181105-p50e5k.html
Every time I think Morrison has reached ‘peak stupid’ he ‘trumps’ himself.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/drastic-dual-election-plan-considered-as-government-tries-to-regain-ground-20181105-p50e5k.html
Governments that are on the nose and try and extend their term to the last possible moment really annoy people and probably do even worse. Labor in Victoria in 1992, Liberals in SA in 2002 (great trivia question, with the previous election being 1997)
Watched 4 corners tonight. Hmmmm…daS Uberpotatofurher has questions to answer i reckon. 🙁
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/why-were-headed-huge-turnout
If college-educated women vote in high numbers, the Republicans are toast.
Laocoon @ #1913 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 11:32 pm
My first reaction? Desperate. Stupid. Still fucked.
Also my second reaction.
Then I read…
So 3rd times a charm reaction I guess. So… Really, that’s what we expect? Actually doing something? No? OK then. Just do the time!
So now we hear that Morrison and co are actually flying around Queensland at our expense while the poor bus driver drives his empty bus to catch up to photo opportunities.
I have lived in Queensland – like the rest of Australians they don’t like being taken for mugs.
Like I said – “Peak Stupid”
LR….likewise 🙂
Rocket Rocket @ #1918 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 11:43 pm
A driver could offer free rides, as appropriate. Hoping for a lift, bloody hot Queensland, bastard cars ignoring you, could anyone refuse the lift? A driver would be doing a public service. More than ‘Thumbs’ at any rate. Maybe a driver would even get a raise for the photo op?
I just reread “I still haven’t found time to sort out a trend for Scott Morrison, despite the fact that I probably have enough data to work with now.”
I know it’s late, and, yes, red wine, but it struck me that sometimes a gut reaction can be insightful. My gut saw those words and interpreted “Why bother?” Then my face made a wry look.
…and good night.
Separate elections would support 2 of the most key government objectives of the current government:
Staying in power as long as possible.
Keeping the ALP out for as long as possible.
Elections at the same time don`t win the government anything, they do however risk a Senate more favourable to the ALP after July but they next Senate already will be and a couple of months of Senate is near useless to the ALP if they are still in opposition.
“Separate elections would support 2 of the most key government objectives of the current government:”
I can see where they may consider this as an option.
They are on a hiding to nuthin in terms of an election in the HoR.
If they accept that…. then a separate election for the Senate makes sense in terms of running a different campaign emphasising the Senate as a house of review that will keep those communist bastards from the ALP from getting above themselves.
Could be the best chance that the RWNJobbie element have to remain relevant. Strongly preference hard right “independents” to try and stack the cross bench in the Senate with fellow travelers??
Elements in the Libs could have wargamed this as a way to preserve their influence because a strictly Senate focused campaign could be played very differently, and framed as strengthening the “checks and balances” in the system.
All that said, can the Libs finance 2 campaigns???
Seperate half senate and house elections will truely cement the LNP in as opposition in waiting.
imacca @ #1923 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 10:41 pm
The electorate as a whole would see through that ruse in an instant.
If they pull a stunt like that they will lose both the Senate and the House. Labor will get a majority in the Senate, or so close they won’t even need the Greens. A couple of cross-benchers will do. Then come the House election they’ll be reduced to such a rump that they’ll implode thereafter. The rats will desert the ship after it hits the seabed.
It is such a bonehead fvcking stupid idea they’ll probably do it.
DG
true
Campbell Newman refused to drive the Bruce Highway now Morrison takes the plane.
Hmm similar themes emerging here
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/03/bludgertrack-53-7-46-3-labor-3/comment-page-39/#comment-2995390
Running a house of review campaign for a separate half-Senate election before they lost government would be admitting they are going to loose. That would only work, to an extent, after loosing but has the risk the new Senate election will occur during the honeymoon. Had Rudd called a House-only election in 2013, the half Senate election that followed could have been a national by-election on the new government, as opposed to just a WA by-election and it is unlikely that the entire ALP Senate campaign would have got something effecting it on the scale the Joe Bullock comment leak did to the WA campaign and the Senate would have been more left-wing.
The Federal LNP is all panic. This a great cause for worry for good governance if it goes on for too long.
Abbott to Turnbull, Turnbull’s inability to capture the support of his own party, the mess that was the Turnbull/Dutton/Morrison implosion, the establishment of special envoys, the Wentworth stakes results, Jerusalem, blue buses in Qld. and now the possibility of a delayed general election next year. For how long can the LNP continue to keep Abbott chained up at ths back of the house?
Two state elections coming up in the biggest states! And Scomo’s band travelling around Qld desperately seeking, well anything.
The LNP will be desperate enough to change leaders again before Christmas, depending on Scomo’s long shot in the Qld bush, getting up at huge odds. How will Pauline/the phantom/the hat react to the blue bus?
The Cup will be run today and there could be a new PM before the celebrations are finished. At least Bishop will enjoy perhaps her last fling as the Cup celebrity pollie.
This is all great entertainment, not so for great governance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dhhVo3guPk
briefly @ #1891 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 10:39 pm
Confessions says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 11:29 pm
briefly:
It’s telling that Qantas quickly nixed the idea of doing the same.
http://www.theshovel.com.au/2018/11/05/virgin-australia-passengers-to-be-asked-to-sing-national-anthem-before-take-off/
I’m not seeing no Essential poll.
Cud Chewer says:
Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 12:07 am
Nbnco
https://amp.smh.com.au/technology/seven-per-cent-of-nbn-customers-still-on-half-the-speed-they-pay-for-20181105-p50e3a.html:
On less than 50% of speed seven percent of customers
On less than 90% to 50% of speed about a quarter percent
On 90% or better of speed about sixty nine percent
Confessions says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 9:46 pm
Begging for a caption!
What have I done?
Was wondering about that myself William. Thought there must have been one last week but then remembered the argy bargy of the lsst few days due to withdrawal symptoms.
Possibly!
Essential Labor back up to 54-46 and Morrison disapproval up 9
A half senate election will let us practice the use of our cricket bats, but we will get no satisfaction, even if we throw away our caution and give Labor a majority. The second swing however!
Essential Poll: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/06/labor-pulls-further-in-front-of-coalition-as-morrisons-disapproval-rating-rises
Essential poll:
Labor 54
Coalition 46
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/06/labor-pulls-further-in-front-of-coalition-as-morrisons-disapproval-rating-rises
Would Essential have been deferred owing to the public holiday – in the most woke State in the Federation at least…..
Though admittedly the Melbourne Cup ain’t exactly woke, and Matthew Guy definitely isn’t
Ah – double good news. I thought Rocket Rocket’s earlier post on Essential was wishful thinking.
Shhhhhhh!!! Let’s keep quiet about what we think about splitting the next election up into a two-parter with six-month-long intermission. They’ll interpret silence as a massive improvement on the reaction they usually get for their big ideas!
Desert Qlder. … “You outside now”
I’ve lived in Qld for 32 years.
As an old Shire Boy I’ve followed the Sharks for 52 years.
I hate the Tories
I hate the imposter of thing that is currently the Sharks No1 Ticket Holder
Annnnnd I hate the Bris-bane Donkeys.
Desert we can settle this outside, frontier style. Youse are on.
New thread.
if you were in the desperate straits that the LNP is in, you’d be considering any options I guess, including the separate half-Senate election. Having an extra 6 months in office, hoping for a Tampa or 9/11 to turn up, has only a medium downside for them. Looks like they’re gorn for all money anyway at a May election. It would certainly be disruptive to future Governments and the governance of the country generally – but it’s not as if the LNP is noted for its focus on the long term welfare of the country.
Michael A
Too late, it’s already a thing —
‘While a May election remains the most likely scenario in the government discussions, some MPs are open to the idea of holding a Senate election early in the year while going to a separate election for the House of Representatives several months later.’
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/drastic-dual-election-plan-considered-as-government-tries-to-regain-ground-20181105-p50e5k.html
Labor should be looking to opportunities to end this farce at the earliest possible date. Another year in office for this Government will see more Howard-Costello style “starve the beast” attacks on the Budget, with irresponsible and unaffordable tax cuts, middle class welfare and corporate welfare.
zoomster says:
Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 7:12 am
Michael A
Too late, it’s already a thing —
‘While a May election remains the most likely scenario in the government discussions, some MPs are open to the idea of holding a Senate election early in the year while going to a separate election for the House of Representatives several months later.’
—————————————
I can only hope folk in the Government kick this ridiculous idea around as often and as loudly as possible – the more senior the figures the better. Once the inevitable fierce public blowback against such a nationally disruptive ruse to artificially extend the Government’s own worthless hides hits the radar of the crossbench, watch how fast they bring the curtains down on this sh1tshow.
Called it. 😉
Mind you, without a majority in the house, I’m not so sure of their chances at actually being successful at delaying a house election until November.