The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead up again after a period of moderating results since the leadership upheaval, the two-party lead now at 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the poll a fortnight ago. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down two to 9%, and One Nation are steady on 6%. Still more worrying for the Liberals is a reversal of the tide in favour of Scott Morrison, who records his first net negative personal ratings to date, with approval down four to 41% and disapproval up six to 44%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and down one to 50%, and his deficit as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-34 to 43-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1646.
KayJay,
The only ‘redemption’ the Coalition believes in is the redeeming qualities of a win at the ballot box next year.
guytaur @ #1848 Thursday, November 1st, 2018 – 7:56 am
I hope that NSW goes Labor too! It’s the only thing between the State being turned into a giant Coal Mine and it retaining it’s beautiful environment. The Coalition are brutally destroying it for profit!
Last night on The Drum, NFF President, Fiona Simson fired up in strong defence of the live animal trade as absolutely necessary. She also insisted that new regulations would ensure that no animal would ever suffer in the future.
If she stood against Barnaby, they’d be singing from the same song sheet on this, even though Barnaby has to take the blame for recent events.
But on the ABC last night the final sentence of the coverage from Adelaide was that after release from the Adelaide Children’s Hospital the children would be returned to a detention facility or be returned to Nauru
So what is their future?
Observer
If it requires compassion you can bet the LNP will do the opposite.
Not sure if any child has been returned to Nauru to date.
Morning all. Guytaur and Bw thanks for the links on those two articles re declining coal exports. How does investing a billion dollars in public money building a rail line to Adani look in that context?
Legend in his own lifetime:
‘…Mr Murdoch spoke after being awarded the AAA’s “legends award” for his lifetime of support for the Australia-US alliance.
…’
From Cameron Stewart in the Australian:
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-affairs/rupert-murdoch-says-australia-and-us-must-work-to-strengthen-ties/news-story/47ecd6a87716d5ac42fa312b69e4ae1d
@Pysclaw:
“What I said was that unless there is independent 3rd source evidence (DNA, or physical injuries, or witness evidence or CCTV etc) by their nature in sexual allegation cases the probabilities always favour the case presented by the alleged perpetrator.
Since I have not sat in court and heard all the evidence, I made no prediction other than reference to the well known conviction rate stats regarding sexual cases.”
Not true. Or at least these days. Especially in my court.
Since 2012 I’ve prosecuted over 50 sexual asssult cases to verdict in the NSW District Court. I have negotiated guilty pleas in over a hundred other cases.
While there is no “winning” or “losing” when presenting a prosecution case on behalf of the community I note that nearly all of the cases I’ve prosecuted lack what you call “independent 3rd source evidence” (save for a species of evidence called ‘complaint evidence’) and yet I secured convictions in all bar 6 cases.
Interestingly in 3 of those 6 cases there was some independent evidence that corroborated the complainat’s version, however there was also evidence of sexualised conduct on behalf of the complaianant towards the accused and a massive amount of intoxication by both parties. I also note that 3 of the 6 cases where the accused was acquitted were tried before country juries, who are notorious in acquitting in sexual assault cases.
Overall, I think attitudes are changing: six years ago I lost my first two sexual assaults trials and the conviction rates in NSW sexual assault trials were not much greater better than 50%. These days the conviction rates are much higher, even in the bush – where I’ve also secured 5 convictions in recent times. I think the royal commission has played a significant role in that shift, even in adult sexual assault trials.
lizzie
I think the difference would be that Joyce had no intention of regulating the trade while Simpson would ensure that the trade is regulated properly.
Boerwar
There is doubt that regulations are very effective. No doubt we shall find out “going forward”.
Scott Morrison is clearing the ‘barnacle’ of Nauru now that the legacy of “Boats” is a liability. When they were arriving he and his colleagues issued press releases saying that the boats were carrying criminals, terrorists, carriers of dread diseases, people who clogged freeways and took Aussie jobs while bludging on the dole. He’ll probably claim in the coming campaign that “Labor” put the kids on Nauru and will reopen the camps when they restart the boats, to get more mileage out of the issue. And the media will let him get away with it.
Asylum seekers were always a useful political pawn for the Coalition. There were no doubt cheers in the “Liberal” party room each time an asylum boat hove over the horizon. Hopefully Morrison and his ilk will be Left Behind at a coming electoral Armageddon.
Interesting also is Mueller and reference to convention during election campaigns
Noting the FBI and Clinton – and closer to home in Victoria with the complaint (again) made by the Liberal Party to Victoria Police
C@tmomma @ #1676 Thursday, November 1st, 2018 – 7:57 am
Shown below is an image of what is described as a creative brain.
Also shown an exemplar of the search for electoral victory.
Stand at the throw line – aim dart – commence (stop watch – click) . Result shown by Mr. A. Green on next Federal Election Night.⏬⏬
Guessing competition- where the hell are we ❓
A very good morning to all and mucho thanks to BK for the Dawn Patrol.
Can this statement apply to Morrison too?
@MSignorile tweets
Florida gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum said Trump’s “only goal is to make us afraid of each other.” https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/andrew-gillum-trump-thief-tweet_us_5bd7b1e0e4b017e5bfd4ff6a?ncid=engmodushpmg00000004 via @HuffPostPol
I hope that NSW doesn’t go Labor too.
Because having Federal Labor in power for as long as possible is absolutely critical – nothing else matters, and certainly not NSW state government.
As for the environment, the Federal government is in a much better position to strong-arm the states in a consistent, long term way, and I’d point out the encouraging reports on Labor’s proposals in this area:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/31/labor-to-propose-new-environmental-laws-to-enforce-biodiversity-and-conservation
But this needs a strong, long term Federal ALP government to get put in place and to stay in place long enough to not be completely torn down by the next Abbott or Morrison.
If Foley and the NSW ALP were showing signs of having a strong, well thought out platform, and of a team that were going to be able to resist the daily urge to fuck up, then I’d be more comfortable with a NSW ALP win in March. I see no such signs; I see more signs of Foley and those around him making dumb reactive populist decisions (their position on greyhound racing, Everest racing ads on the Opera House eg) with no nuance or thought, and no sense that they’ve developed a strong backbone to tackle integrity issues.
I’m not happy with quite a few decisions and direction of the Berjiklian government, but the prospect of having another bad or weak NSW ALP government tainting Federal ALP’s chances is … horrifying to be honest.
Jackol
I don’t think NSW going Labor will be a bad thing for Federal Labor. If that was the case you better say Queensland and Victoria being Labor is a bad thing for Federal Labor too.
Remember the primary vote collapse happened to the LNP in both state and federal by elections in NSW and Queensland
Edit: Reminder I am not a fan of Foley and agree NSW Labor should be stronger. I think Foley may do so as he did show mongrel in his comeback on the slur against him. If he shows that mongrel on policy like Federal Labor he will do well.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/01/coalition-to-spend-half-a-billion-dollars-on-australian-war-memorial-project?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/postcolonial-blog/2018/apr/09/a-500m-expansion-of-the-war-memorial-is-a-reckless-waste-of-money
I actually believe NSW Labor might fall agonisingly short next March.
Thanks, lizzie. Proves my point.
About fifteen years ago, I had strong connections with the local Nats – certainly, if I’d been raised in the electorate instead of moving into it, I might have joined them instead of Labor.
I’d turn up at polling booths on election day to be mobbed by Nat supporters wanting to meet me and wondering aloud why their party wasn’t in coalition with Labor.
In that period, however, the Nats have totally changed. There’s no way someone like me could even toy with the idea of joining them now.
In the run up to the election where the Bracks minority government was formed on the back of winning a couple of country seats, there was a meeting where Marie Tehan and Pat McNamara were told by the crowd of Nat supporters, “Don’t take us for granted.”
Guytaur, generally I agree with your “Rush” post above.
However I think Norvill went too far in claiming systemic sexual harassment and its routine cover-up in the theatre industry.
Whether she was boxed into that corner by overly aggressive cross examination, or whether she perceived a personal advantage in doing so is another matter.
She did not make a formal complaint to management. She saw Rush as a father figure professionally (according to contemporary newspaper reports circa 2015) and as a petsonal mentor. She willingly acknowledged at the time that he was “cheeky”, mischievous, and brought fun to the production and her role.
She made these comments well into the play’s season, at a time after she had been – according to her evidence this week – already humiliated and sexually harassed by Rush, with the whole cast, crew and management conspiring to cover this up.
Something here does not add up. What was correct? Her effusive interview with (ironically) News Corporation newspapers then, in 2015, or her diametrically opposed testimony this week in support of the same newspapers’ later vilification of Rush? Remember: at the time she was interviewed for the article, the events she described this week in scandalous and sensational terms had already allegedly taken place.
The basic conundrum is this: this week Norvill was prepared to destroy some of our most accomplished actors, directors and theatre companies by alleging they were all complicit in what amounted to gang sexual harassment. In 2015, based on exactly the same set of personal experiences and interactions, it was all sweetness and light.
What happened to Eryn Jean Norvill during those three years? Who has she been talking to, to so completely reverse her attitude towards playing Cordelia to Rush’s Lear?
Article on Wentworth and role of social media and tactical voting
I suspect behind the paywall
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/getup-israel-and-alex-turnbull-how-wentworth-was-lost-20181029-h178tx
BB
I think Norvill may have been making a comment on the generational differences and not about Rush specifically but behaviour in the industry generally.
That would be true. MeToo did not suddenly spring up for no reason as a movement.
It seems to me that the strength of #metoo is that it is forcing systemic issues to the surface.
And that the problem with #metoo is a tendency to believe that a #metoo allegation must be true.
And FWIW on Adani
Indian energy giant Adani is weeks away from pulling the trigger on its controversial Carmichael mine in Central Queensland after scaling back its size and scope to convince banks to finance the project.
While many industry experts doubted the economics of the original $16.5 billion Carmichael project – which planned to export 60 million tonnes of thermal coal each year making it the biggest coal mine in Australia – the project has now been scaled back to a capital cost of less than $2 billion for the first stage….
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/adani-close-to-pulling-trigger-on-scaledback-2-billion-carmichael-mine-20181031-h17cbo
bw
The pushback against MeToo was stark with Trump and Kavanaugh.
Unless its a trial like Harvey Weinstein its not innocent until proven guilty.
Its the preponderance of most likely. Its not let many guilty go free so one innocent may not go to jail.
Its listen to the allegations as a way to tackle the systemic cultural problems that is the core of Me Too.
Those allegations that meet a criminal standard do like Weinstein go to a criminal court trial.
So let me get this right
The Dill who heads ANZ says the “average” home loan approved has dropped by $110,000- over the last 3 years
And that lending for home purchases will drop by 50% to the lowest ever
Banking by numbers, not by assessment
So, has the “average” home loan dropped because ANZ are requiring a greater cash contribution to the purchase, and if so why?
Noting the 3 year time span so house prices have increased over the period
If this is the case why isn’t the statement that ANZ require a 30% cash contribution to any application for a home loan to be approved?
So prospective purchasers know exactly where the goal posts are – not that “average” approvals are $110,000- less than they were 3 years ago?
And any pre-emptive comment that the approval of Housing Loans is going to drop 50% to a new low is just nonsense because that assumes people are not going to achieve the benchmark for an approval
And what is the outlook for the bank if this is the projection – noting the sale of their Fund Manager and Insurance business to IOOF?
So you would assume their Share Price will come under further pressure as their business model contracts – but there are always fully franked dividends for the fools so attracted except how do dividends maintain
“Over recent years the bank has transitioned from a grow the book regardless business model to a risk assessment driven business model with the result that the Loan to Valuation ratio has been set at 70%, requiring a greater cash contribution from prospective borrowers
This requirement also impacts on and improves the servicibility assessment and particularly given the twin risks of deflationary wages growth and increases in the banks funding costs due to interest rate increases particularly in the USA where our subordinated debt is accessed
We remain an active home mortgage lender and do not anticipate that these prudent changes to our approval assessment criteria will see us disadvantaged in maintaining the share of the home lending market we have traditionally enjoyed and which share we seek to expand on
We look forward to a change of government at the Federal level as a catalyst for a change in economic circumstances across the Nation and particularly in regards of households, under pressure from the level of private debt due to our previous grow the book regardless business model, continuing recessionary wages growth and expenditure pressures including increasing home loan mortgage interest rates as covered, utility costs and now petrol costs plus insecurity in employment and the terms and conditions of employment
We do acknowledge that the foregoing is impacting on our business lending book and the viability of that book so we have vested interest in the reset of the direction of the Nation
We also ensure our staff that our commitment to prudent growth of our lending book and the prudent on going assessments of that lending book, always vital to our risk management, will ensure there will be no retrenchment and that we will continue to source well qualified personnel for that purpose”
Jackol:
Well said.
Guytaur, in 2015 Rush is a father figure, playful, cheeky and fun: a mentor. The director is mining one of Shakespeare’s greatest plays for inner meaning. The whole thing is a wonderful experience. The cast and crew are the best of the best.
In 2017 Rush is a dirty old man, part of a culture of serial bullying, sexual harassment and its cover-up. Brilliant young actors like Eryn Jean Norvill are routinely humiliated in the workplace by way of belittling, bizarre sexual bastardization rituals. Everyone’s in on it: men, women, directors, backstage, management. It’s like Rosemary’s Baby revisited.
If life’s a play, both positions are based on different readings of the same text.
I am not so generous towards Ms Norvill’s motivations in her present role.
guytaur
Greens such as you can do lynch law mob justice any time you like.
Go ahead. Burn your witches du jour.
Nicholas gave us a sterling example last night of doing judge, jury and executioner on BB, all based on Nicholas’ 100% certainty that Norvill is the wronged party in the #metoo tradition. This is a perfect example of the lynch mob genre.
Me?
I prefer the proper application of the legal system.
We know that the legal system needs to be reformed.
So let’s reform it.
Burning innocent people is not the answer.
What’s Miranda done now? I’ve been blocked by her on twitter since about 2009 or 2010.
Also, since yesterday, for some reason every time I open PB and/ or make a post my details are gone at the bottom of the page, and don’t stay there like they usually do. Any idea why?
I am ambivalent about NSW state government going to Labor.
Sure, the Liberal/Nationals are a bunch of environment-crushing shonks.
But has Labor reformed?
It is an on-balance thing, IMO.
No, it doesn’t!
That is a fundamental misconception that people have about the criminal justice system. Even though that isn’t the issue with the Geoffrey Rush case.
There are plenty of cases where a conviction is secured based on the jury’s judgement that the complainant is more credible than the accused.
A complaint by itself can be sufficient evidence for a conviction. Most convictions in sex offence cases involve the complainant’s word against the accused’s with no third party witnesses of the offence, no video evidence of the offence, no physical evidence of the offence.
BW
I am not Nicholas. No matter how many times you say it I am not a Green party member or even avowed supporter. I have just sometimes voted for them when I have not voted Labor.
As for witch hunt claims. Its a defamation case. A witness that did not make a complaint responding to an opinion on an industry under cross examination.
Its not a burn all men in fires with mobs baying with pitchforks
B
Yep. Having to re-enter name and address for every single post is a drag.
Guytaur @8:37AM. A bit of commentary / context regarding those tweets would help. I have no idea what that post is about.
Steve
Sorry I thought the dates made it clear its not recent.
The only context I was trying to convey was Savva comment on Devine.
Boerwar
I tend to think of NSW Lib+Lab as Rum Corp Blue Platoon+Rum Corp Red Platoon 🙂
What is fair dinkum power? Why does Morrison thinks Australian public are idiots and fools by making up that kind of words?
Atlassian co-founder criticises Morrison for that.
https://thewest-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/atlassian-co-founder-mike-cannon-brookes-criticises-scott-morrisons-fair-dinkum-power-in-twitter-spat-ng-b881008007z.amp?amp_js_v=a2&_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fthewest.com.au%2Fpolitics%2Ffederal-politics%2Fatlassian-co-founder-mike-cannon-brookes-criticises-scott-morrisons-fair-dinkum-power-in-twitter-spat-ng-b881008007z
On the NSW election:
I reckon many in federal Labor are secretly hoping Gladys scrapes through to victory in March.
To put it politely, Luke Foley, er, does not impress me. I don’t care about the lack of charisma or the “invisibility” – more concerning is the how the only times he ever gets fired up and puts himself out there are on issues that really aren’t in the public industry at all, such as defending the gambling industry’s right to advertise on national monuments and exploit animals (in both cases, playing a part in securing “wins” against a Coalition government that was preciously planning to go against all their natural instructs and actually do the right thing), or making rather Pauline-esque statements on white people.
I think the long term future of both NSW and federal Labor would be much better off with next year’s NSW election being lost and Foley stepping aside.
Except that is not Niki Savva and that account has been suspended.
Asha Leu
The problem with Gladys winning is that by the time her ‘reign’ is over the rape of the environment will be almost complete.
OMG Pegasus, according to Herald Sun, a Greens candidate for Victorian state elections boasts about her shop lifting capabilities on social media. Where does Di Natali gets candidates like this?
Brendan Nelson can go get stuffed AFAIC. Instead of building yet more shrines to worship war and the military, how about we instead use that $498 million to treat PTSD for our damaged war vets, or how about for raising awareness about how utterly horrifying war is and how it should be avoided?
‘The president is self-destructing’ as news cycle threatens to generate blue wave: report
A wave of optimism reportedly swept the White House after the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, reports Vanity Fair. But that feeling was short lived.
According to the magazine, insiders say Trump has been frustrated by the current news cycle. After a week in which one of his supporters sent packages containing pipe bombs to his critics—and a virulent anti-Semite murdered 11 people at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh—the president appears to be alarmed at the prospect of Democrats sweeping Congress.
If the expected blue wave does materialize, that likely means Trump administration officials will be buried in investigations. That, in turn, is making some officials likely to leave the White House, Vanity Fair reports. “There’s going to be a lot of departures,” a former West Wing official told the magazine.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/10/president-self-destructing-news-cycle-threatens-generate-blue-wave-report/
Like every other movement in history, the MeToo movement has unfortunately attracted some psychopaths and idiots and lunatics. That’s not an indictment of MeToo at all, just human nature. Among the all very real cases being brought to light by this movement, there will always be some liars and some crazies and some people who are just terrible human beings.
I haven’t followed the Rush allegations that closely, but it does strike me as being a bit overblown. Sounds like he was being a dick, and is likely guilty of some form of sexual harrassment, but accusations of sexual assault seems a bit of a bridge too far.
It’s wrong, and he deserves to be criticized and suffer (appropriate) consequences for his actions (as do others in the industry who let it go on.) But I’m not sure there’s a whole lot more to it than that, in this particular situation.
I could well be wrong.
Is she a relative of his?