The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47. The poll also includes the monthly leadership ratings, which show Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 42-27 as preferred prime minister, out from 39-27 a month ago. We will have to wait for the full report later today to see primary votes and approval ratings. The poll also finds 40% in favour of transferring families and children on Nauru to Australia, with 39% opposed; 37% supporting the closure of the Nauru detention centre and transferring those remaining to Australia, with 42% opposed; and 35% in support of keeping them there indefinitely, with 43% opposed. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.
UPDATE: Full report here. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens reverting to 10% after a spike to 12% a fortnight ago, and One Nation up two to 7% after dropping three in the last poll. Scott Morrison is up six on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 28%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down three to 33% and down two to 45%.
The Guardian report focused on asylum seeker questions, but the other focus for the supplementary questions this week is the media. Thirty-six per cent offered that the government had too much influence on the ABC, 16% not enough, 17% about right and 31% don’t know, with Labor and Greens voters greatly more likely to offer the first response. Forty per cent felt ABC reporting was independent and unbiased and 34% the opposite – Labor and Greens supporters weighed more heavily towards the former, with Coalition supporters evenly split.
Also featured is an occasional “trust in media” question, along with a new question identifying specific news outlets. Despite all the fuss of late, results to both follow the usual patterns: public beats commercial, broadsheet beats tabloid, news beats tabloid, and there’s nothing lower than an “internet blog”. The Australian has a slight edge over the Fairfax papers, which I would hypothesise has something to do with the latter’s move to tabloid.
“Mr Morrison is going to visit the Governor General in the next week or so.”
I hope so. Labor should play a straight bat on this and say “we will cut small business taxes when we can afford it”, but not if it will result in more cuts to education, training, health, pensions and investment in the future.
The ‘migrants need to go regions’ brain fart seems to have dissipated quickly. Labor should say, we will invest in regional areas to create the jobs and lifestyles that will see more people move to and stay in regional areas. In some regional areas, many people are not so keen on new people/migrants, but they desperately want their younger people and families to stay. Investment in jobs and services rather than forcing migrants who will compete for jobs and housing or join the other townies on welfare and in poverty is the way to go. Victoria and NSW show that if you put decent rail services between the city and regional areas you get movement to the regions and the income from people commuting to the city boosts the regional areas.
C@tmomma @ #1568 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 10:06 am
Yes, this was the theme of the Sabra Lane interview, heavily promoted by Lane, who even mentioned Labor’s ‘tax increases’ in her intro.
ABC resumes normal programming in blindly promoting the government’s agenda.
guytaur @ #1604 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 6:40 am
Using a cake for a political message, I think, is obscure.
The finding was not about cake. The finding was that a person cannot be made to make a statement against their will.
That seems fairly straight-forward.
The cake-makers have declared to the world that they are religious bigots. Strangely, they are proud of their bigotry. They have gone to great expense to publish it.
Barney
Yes but its common in a lot of events.
However sometimes that cake features as a political message that is printed in newspapers so goes from obscure to spotlighted.eg Think of messages on Gough Whitlam’s birthday cake published in newspapers.
The point is not how obscure a way of messaging it is but if it is blocking the free speech of that political expression.
ar’s cake shop in action?
Mr Knight, your US Open Celebration Cake is ready. Your cartoon of Ms Williams spitting the dummy was a technical challenge for our cake decorators but they have excelled. You will notice that we have exercised the creativity made possible by turning your 2D cartoon into a 3D cake artwork. We trust you approve.
Unfortunately we were forced to fire our resident Bludger Decorator when she refused to do the lips properly because of her views having to do with what she claimed was ‘the context’ and because Ms William’s supporters claims that we have baked a racist cake.
“So if I went to an outspoken gay printer and asked that he print my (for the purpose of this debate) opinion that ‘gay sex causes disharmony in the community’ (or words to that general effect), he should have no right to deny the job?”
I think they’d have grounds to knock you back because you’re choosing to promote hate and being a dickhead. You don’t choose to be gay. You can choose to be a dickhead, as you keep demonstrating in this instance.
Personally, I think a business should be able to knock back a job. The appropriate response is not to go to court – it is to publicise it and post in on social media and let the market tell the business what they think of them. I’ll bet the ‘winning’ bakery has lost a lot of trade over this.
guytaur @ #1609 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 6:47 am
But it’s not blocking their free speech as they have many other ways available to them to make their point.
briefly @ #1604 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 9:46 am
Technically the person who commissioned the cake is the one making the statement. The decorator is merely decorating.
Should a court stenographer be exempt from transcribing testimony they disagree with?
Business should be going “gangbusters”
For 10 years they have paid the lowest interest rate ever on their borrowings
For the last 5 years there has been no wages growth
So the two largest expenses on the P&L Statement have been to the exclusive benefit of business
Plus $4 Billion a year is not being remitted to their employees Superannuation accounts
If business is doing so well, why is it not remitting $4 Billion a year to its employees superannuation accounts?
Simply, with money on Term Deposit earning with a 2 in front of it so no incentive to save to generate wealth, the ASX where is was over 4 years ago and still in decline and house prices cooling (to quote the RBA Governor) in a flat wages growth economy (again quoting the RBA Governor) consumer confidence is eroding
So, given the extended period of advantage business has enjoyed at cost to the economy and society, I trust they have built Reserves into their Balance Sheets to sustain themselves during the continuing economic decline, a decline now exacerbated by the destruction of consumer confidence
For the Nation to have confidence there needs to be the incentive of improved wealth – including by way of inflation within the guideline parameters
So you are getting a return for savings, you are able to contribute to those savings with wages increases giving margin over expenses and you are spending with confidence because your wealth is being enhanced
Therefore business benefits – and the ASX benefits as a forward indicator reading those confidence indicators
Instead we have business reliant on interest and wages expense reflecting National statistics – and then calling for tax cuts to survive
As consumers further tighten their already tightened belts
Then we have house prices cooling, further denting consumer confidence at the worst possible time
And what we see is the deflection of these austerity delivers confidence religious nut jobs – including also immigration
The continuing nature of this thread focusing on religion (whatever that is) is indicative of an undeducted society so easily deflected by abject nonsense
Look at the National statistics
What is working to the benefit of society on the watch of these economic and religious zealots?
Those now promoting tax cuts are those who have had the benefit over now 10 years – and they have wasted that benefit to the cost of all of us
They have accrued wealth at cost to the remainder – and now the remainder are returning the pain to these ideological, religious nut cases who want to pay no tax to survive what is being delivered to them by society
a r –
You’re inventing problems that don’t exist.
The situation is a simple, trivial one – there is a competitive marketplace supplying decorated cakes, almost all of these suppliers will not care what you want to have written on your cake, but there are a few who might balk at certain decorations. ie in most cases the first shop you pick is most likely to say ‘sure’, but there is a small chance that the first shop might say “we’d rather not” in which case you take your business elsewhere, undoubtedly with fairly minimal fuss.
Bringing in the state and the justice system to force people to do your bidding because you get a bit offended that the first shop you go into refuses you service is … a terrible idea, without condoning the behaviour of the people who refuse to decorate gay cakes (or whatever the contentious decoration might happen to be).
There is no problem here except where people want to go out of their way to create a problem.
If there was a consistent issue where a minority couldn’t get a legal legitimate convenient service provided to them because of widespread discrimination, or legal/institutional barriers, then there is a problem that needs to be solved.
No one has provided an example of this happening in the cake baking sector.
Guytaur’s cake shop in action.
‘Mr Robb, your cake is ready. As requested, the dark chocolate icing used for the noose is in sharp contrast with the tasteful white ground. As specified, the sides of the cake feature the Confederate Flag interleaved with a series of special ‘K’s. We had to sack Erasmus because he got uppity when we directed him to do the icing. You would be pleased to know that some of the apprentices gave Erasmus a flogging out the back for causing totally unnecessary trouble.’
observer
I assume that most of the really big profits since the GFC have been sent overseas and therefore no longer operate within the ambit of our economy.
Barney
Not if its the only bakery in a 100K. That is practical remember this was for presumably for a wedding so its exactly like refusing to bake a cake for Bob Hawke or Gough Whitlam because you are a Liberal supporter.
This is where the religious objection should be rejected in my view. If you are going to be in a business that accepts slogan writing on cakes then you have to accept all slogan writing on cakes unless its hate speech.
Considering that Footy is like a religion that Collingwood supporting baker could have had a case.
Boerwar’s cake shop.
‘We don’t serve blacks, gays, Muslims, or Greens. Get out.’ 🙂
Jackol
Thats why I am being specific about it only being a problem when there is no competitive available option.
Remember the law deals with the exception.
My point about using unions as an example of a political slogan and a Tory objecting is to take out the religious and gay issues and look at it purely as political.
Then you need to ask. When can religion interfere in political speech?
Boerwar’s cake shop.
‘Sorry, I haven’t got time to make your bloody cake.
Posting my fascinating thoughts 12 hours a day on a blog is far more important.’
guytaur @ #1618 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 6:56 am
So you’re saying a cake is the only way they can present their political message?
“The finding was not about cake. The finding was that a person cannot be made to make a statement against their will. ” (Briefly)
Actually, no. The finding was that the owner had not breached the terms of the NI anti-discrimination law, which relates to discrimination against a person (here the customer) on certain grounds including sexuality. It did not outlaw discrimination as to the kind of product you would sell to a customer. The bit about making a statement against their will was a fallback argument that the owners had foreshadowed, and the court said it didn’t need to consider it. You can read the actual reasons, as opposed to misleading summaries, here: http://www.bailii.org/uk/cases/UKSC/2018/49.html
And btw the court was the UK Supreme Court, which is higher in the Brit hierarchy than the High Court. It’s what used to be the judicial bit of the House of Lords.
And the customer had bought the cake he wanted quite readily from another shop – so both sides were posturing in bothering to litigate all the way to the top court. “I don’t care how much it costs me – it’s a matter of principle!”
How can anyone argue we are not torturing them?
Barney
I am saying we are giving religion too many exceptions in a secular society.
Especially if the cake was going to be at a Same Sex Wedding. Then it becomes an expression of hate speech by inserting the religion into the service of the political message. However obscure or spotlighted in national and international that message may end up being.
By giving religion special status we have to ensure freedom to practise your religion but also ensure that commercial services in secular society are free from religious restrictions.
So you can set up a Halal butchery but you cannot refuse to serve that meat to a non halal person. Its the choice of the customer to buy the service.
If the bakery is one that advertises it only does religious political slogans then like a Halal butchery thats fair enough. However if its professing to be a commercial business then it must be secular and not refuse a service on religious grounds.
FMD the trogs are restless…
Anti-Wind Farm Activism Is Sweeping Europe
Peter Dutton says wtte “No one has drowned under my watch.”
Observer
I prefer it being written as
👉♪La la la la la♪♫lalalalala♫♪👈
🙉🙈🙊
ar
Having had some experience of dealing face to face with racists in real world situations I know exactly what I would say to a chap who came into my shop for a Ku Klux Klan celebratory cake. I can tell you that it gets ugly.
But how would you, personally and as a cake shop proprietor, respond to a request for a cake with a white background, a chocolate noose and three Ks in the loop of the noose?
Or, to take it a step further, a history cake which copies one of those postcards which used to circulate by the millions of a real lynching?
Further, if you as the proprietor accepts the specs, would you force your staff to follow suit?
guytaur @ #1625 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 7:07 am
Stop moving the goal posts.
Your point was regarding a political message not a celebration of an event.
These are two completely different scenarios.
‘adrian says:
Thursday, October 11, 2018 at 10:59 am
Boerwar’s cake shop.
‘Sorry, I haven’t got time to make your bloody cake.
Posting my fascinating thoughts 12 hours a day on a blog is far more important.’’
Adrian’s cake: some vitreolic virtuperation about Boerwar.
sustainable future
Jesus said forget the old testament laws and live by simple rules of love and respect for others. Why do so many ‘Christians’ focus on the ‘Judeo” old testament to support their intolerance over this message?
Well, we are about 1/2 way there, we can now accept evolution, bit like the Abraham tradition, they almost got there; stopped one god too soon.
If you are a women it’s 1 timothy 2.12 for you.
lizzie @ #1620 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 11:06 am
Nobody can honestly argue that we are not torturing them.
However, the piss weak journalists who rarely, if ever, broach this subject with Morrison, Dutton, or any of the other scum politicians who are actually in government, are complicit.
If we had a halfway decent media, this question would be asked consistently and forcefully.
Barney
No my wedding cake celebration is exactly the same as that of a slogan for Gough Whitlam’s birthday cake.
Both are celebrations with political slogans.
I wonder whether Guytaur’s Cake Shop would come at this cake?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1347932/Tamara-Ecclestone-jumps-giant-cake-boyfriends-birthday-party.html
C@tmomma @ #1457 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 8:08 am
Thanks for the Barcelona clip C@t; something else from a past long gone. Freddie was dead before the olympics. Hope all is going well in the healing department.
And, toast, banter, and Vegemite – that’s a breakfast.
“Many weeks ago there was a discussion about the effect of global warming on earthquakes and volcanoes”……apparently there is already an earthquake season linked to monsoons. Monsoons dump a huge amount of heavy water on the land, and the weight quickly disappears as well. This compression and release of weight causes earthquakes. Climate change will exacerbate this.
a r
A slight tweak to the Boerwar Wedding Cake & Suikerbeeste Shop sign
Jack Aranda
I was relying on The Guardian report….simple mistake.
Bill Shorten asked about the discrimination in education of gay people.
Putting the boot into Morrison on this 🙂
guytaur @ #1634 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 7:13 am
?????
Barney
Is a wedding a celebration?
Is a birthday a celebration?
Is a slogan on a birthday cake the same as that of a slogan at a wedding cake?
Lyle Shelton comes up with a cunning plan for a compromise.
https://outline.com/88w3rx
‘poroti says:
Thursday, October 11, 2018 at 11:17 am
a r
A slight tweak to the Boerwar Wedding Cake & Suikerbeeste Shop sign
‘We don’t serve blacks, gays, Muslims, or Greens or Jeremy Corbin. Get out.’
I would be sure to serve blacks, gays, Muslims, Greens and Corbyn.
Would I would serve to the first four would be cakes as long as the cakes were not racist, homophobic, terrorist, or dopey.
What I would serve up to Corbyn for his cakehole would be a whole nother thing.
I heard Morrison interviewed this morning on ABC New Radio spruiking his latest tax cut plan. He was pushing what he wants to be the election message “Under Labor it’s tax tax tax tax…” (you get the general drift). He said something like taxes will be $250 billion more under Labor (from memory – maybe it was $250 trillion or $250 octillion – doesn’t really matter, he probably pulled a number out of his rear end).
The obvious rejoinder is what it was when the tax cuts were still on. What is going to be cut in next year’s and subsequent budgets to pay for it?
None of this is entirely theoretical, of course.
Mr Shorten ran into problems in a pie shop.
And THAT was with a plain fourntwenty.
Tom:
Thursday, October 11, 2018 at 10:08 am
————————————
The Twelve Tables of Roman law, from the early decades of the Republic (ie, before 400 BCE), were derived from Christianity?
Oh, I forgot, nothing in human history from before 1 AD counts, except what led to the Messiah.
Josh Taylor tweets
What does Lyle Shelton class as gay sex? https://twitter.com/PoliticsFairfax/status/1050178250708680704
@PoliticsFairfax tweets
Don’t expel students for being gay – only if they have sex, says Lyle Shelton https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/don-t-expel-students-for-being-gay-only-if-they-have-sex-says-lyle-shelton-20181011-p50900.html via @MichaelKoziol
Paras 22 and 59 of the Supreme Court judgment point to the significance of the message sought to be out on the cake.
Interesting criticism of the Northern Ireland Equality Commission’s correspondence to the baking family not being neutral.
guytaur @ #1642 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 7:22 am
It wasn’t a wedding cake!!
SSM is not legal in Northern Ireland and that was the political message.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/01/gay-marriage-cake-northern-ireland-bakers-forced-to-act-against-their-beliefs
Boerwar @ #1625 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 10:08 am
First, I quote them an astronomical price. Then if they still accept I make the cake and if successful (see below) donate the astronomical portion of the price to some charity, group, or cause that’s directly opposed to the KKK (or racists, generally).
And if I really want to be sure that I lose their business, I make a point of telling them in advance that I’ll be making that donation.
Absolutely not. If none of my staff are willing, then I check with other shops to see if I can subcontract the cake to them. If none of them are able, then I tell the customer that there’s nobody qualified and willing and locally available to make that cake so either they can go somewhere else or I can try to do it personally though as I’m a business manager and not a baker it’ll probably come out pretty half-assed looking and full-assed tasting. 🙂
Also, I categorically reject the implied premise that there’s any equivalence between discriminating against bigots and discriminating against people who were born a certain way. Or that in order to do the former it follows that we must accept the latter.
Barney
So yes it was purely political. Thus the objection is to a political view.
Remember many courts before the UK Supreme Court ruled the other way before the appeal reached it.
Thats why I raised the union comparison. Could this open the way for Tories to use religion as an excuse to refuse Labour party functions slogans on cakes? Perhaps printers will refuse to print Labour Party advertising now on religious grounds when its LGBTI Labour.
About earthquakes and global warming:
It is well-known that damming large rivers leads to numbers of small shallow tremors in the neighbourhood. It is thought that water infiltrating INTO the joints (fractures) in the underlying rocks is allowing stress release earlier than otherwise would have happened.
AFAIK, these are not major events, but can cause small local damage to infrastructure – even at the damsite.
The weight of one metre of rain on the surface, which runs off rapidly, is the equivalent of the (theoretical) geostatic pressure in the soil at a depth of – about half a metre. This seems inconsequential – I can’t see any water as working its way down in the rocks 100’s of metres below the surface.
It was hard to refrain from comment on the scriptural and anti-scriptural homilies this morning. One comment – there are thousands of writings which claim to be the dictated word of God – it is exceeding strange that the god forgot to let us know which is the Truth!
There is one true religion – I call it Lastwordism – also known as my way or the highway!