Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No change in voting intention from the latest Essential poll, which also finds respondents evenly split on the future of the Nauru detention centre.

The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47. The poll also includes the monthly leadership ratings, which show Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 42-27 as preferred prime minister, out from 39-27 a month ago. We will have to wait for the full report later today to see primary votes and approval ratings. The poll also finds 40% in favour of transferring families and children on Nauru to Australia, with 39% opposed; 37% supporting the closure of the Nauru detention centre and transferring those remaining to Australia, with 42% opposed; and 35% in support of keeping them there indefinitely, with 43% opposed. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.

UPDATE: Full report here. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens reverting to 10% after a spike to 12% a fortnight ago, and One Nation up two to 7% after dropping three in the last poll. Scott Morrison is up six on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 28%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down three to 33% and down two to 45%.

The Guardian report focused on asylum seeker questions, but the other focus for the supplementary questions this week is the media. Thirty-six per cent offered that the government had too much influence on the ABC, 16% not enough, 17% about right and 31% don’t know, with Labor and Greens voters greatly more likely to offer the first response. Forty per cent felt ABC reporting was independent and unbiased and 34% the opposite – Labor and Greens supporters weighed more heavily towards the former, with Coalition supporters evenly split.

Also featured is an occasional “trust in media” question, along with a new question identifying specific news outlets. Despite all the fuss of late, results to both follow the usual patterns: public beats commercial, broadsheet beats tabloid, news beats tabloid, and there’s nothing lower than an “internet blog”. The Australian has a slight edge over the Fairfax papers, which I would hypothesise has something to do with the latter’s move to tabloid.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,060 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Scrott showing the years of glossolalia training at Hillsong. Bastard.

    IPCC coal call not for us: PM
    OCTOBER 08, 2018
    Scott Morrison has rejected a rapid global phase-out of coal-fired power and declared his government will not be bound by a landmark climate study,

    The Prime Minister ­defended Australia remaining a signatory to the Paris Agreement, arguing it would not have any impact on electricity prices. But he said Australia would not be held to any of the IPCC ­report conclusions.

    “We are not held to any of them at all, and nor are we bound to go and tip money into that big climate fund,” Mr Morrison told 2GB radio.

    The Australian government said the report justified the controversial decision to spend $444 million protecting the Great Barrier Reef.

  2. Just reflecting on that disgraceful behaviour of Alan Jones I thought Michelle Grattan had the right idea on how to best handle it. Her suggestion was that Ms Herron should have told him to ring back when he had found his manners and then hung up. That way she would have maintained some level of control over the situation, not to mention some dignity. Unfortunately she didn’t do that and her last words to him were a rather weak sounding ‘Thank you’, which just sounded totally incongruous.

    I am not criticising Ms Herron. What happened to her was absolutely disgraceful and no-one could criticise her for handling it in the way she did. But if she HAD responded in the way Gratten has suggested it could have been a good example to others, particular women, of just how to respond to a rude, loud mouth bastard like Jones.

  3. Morrison has made a career out making announcements and then backing away or ignoring them thereafter.

    Our alias sees “bullshit” as a sustainable political strategy.

  4. Regarding battling scores…..and own goals….

    Just saying —


    Posted Tuesday, October 6, 2015 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    ….Turnbull kind of feels sorry for this confidence-deficient bumbling adversary {Shorten }. He plays with him; chides him; has sport with him.

    …. Turnbull challenges Shorten to a series of debates in an election campaign.

    …..Shorten stumbles, his inadequacies as a public speaker are laid bare. Turnbull gains in confidence.

    …..Turnbull wins the election with an increased majority

    Posted Tuesday, October 6, 2015 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    .. .. Just watch. Turnbull will cement himself into an election winning position. He will then tweak some policies that matter to many Australians

    Posted Friday, October 2, 2015 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    I still get a special little heart flutter when I remember Turnbull is PM.

    … However the fact remains that I get a special little heart flutter..

  5. Q: How is it that morrison can find overwhelming ‘evidence’ for the existence of an interventionist god (his only climate policy being to “Pray for rain”), but finds 30-40 years of solid climate science somehow lacking?

    A: Donations and support from the mining sector and murdoch media

    I wish shorten had the guts to announce a 20-year transition program that will use a slowly rising levy on fossil fuel carbon emissions (so starting with a <$5 per tonne levy) to support investment in clean energy, carbon sequestration and new industries, that will focus on new jobs in mining regions. It is economic suicide to keep backing coal and expecting to keep getting billions of export dollars in 20 years' time. Also, he could point out that the ERF is virtually unfunded and has mainly invested in dubious 'sequestration' – a senate inquiry into that waste of $$ would be worth doing before the election. He's too gutless I fear.

    The Nauru poll questions say it all – 35-40% of australians are c@#ts. Morrison is their man – a c@#t's c@#t. Shorten can't match that (to his credit) and should stop trying to.

  6. BB – beat me to it. Thought the person must be someone like Kelly O’Dwyer, rather than anyone with any actual knowledge of the environment. Was impressed that she knew more than the world’s climate scientists. She ended with wtte of ‘I can’t believe that by 2050 we won’t have worked out the technology to make coal clean’ which is (at best) wishful thinking, not something usually meant to drive government policy.

  7. The Australian government said the report justified the controversial decision to spend $444 million protecting the Great Barrier Reef.

    Yes, but that money is not going to go towards any moves to deal with the effects of Climate Change on the GBR. It is going to be given to farmers on dry land to divert run-off onto the GBR, to fight the Crown of Thorns starfish, still, after decades of failure doing same, and to build bloody ridiculous fans to ‘cool’ the GBR!

    It’s a farce! And it’s a farce being paid for with OUR money, to Coalition Mates!

  8. ‘I can’t believe that by 2050 we won’t have worked out the technology to make coal clean’


    We have that technology now. It’s called ‘leave it where it is’!

  9. Why do we need to ‘make Coal clean’, when we have clean air to power Wind Turbines and clean sunlight to make power from!?!

  10. TPOF @ #62 Tuesday, October 9th, 2018 – 8:56 am


    “I used some words in these programs about the Everest, and the Opera House, and Louise, which in hindsight I now most regret hearing, having heard the impact they’ve clearly had on some people,” he said on air.


    Yes – those people being advertisers on his show.

    And the lawyers Louise Herron was engaging to make him fight another Defamation suit.


  11. Well on the ABC today I heard the impossible -also very,very triple by 10 scary (if you are Brazilian anyway)

    They were discussing the probable new president of Brazil. Fran said “Brazil’s Trump” and the guest replied “Unfair to Trump” and THEN described the full horror of this guy. He makes Duterte look like a bleeding heart progressive. He supports murder, rape, military coups, torture, women at home not at work and whipping gays.

    Brazil is not some minor nation. This guy is REALLY, REALLY scary.

  12. I am impatient with the narrowness of the belief that cheaper power prices are more important than anything else.

    Your house flooded and insurance costs rising? Ah, but elec is cheaper.
    Thousands have to be spent in clearing storm damage? Ah, but elec is cheaper.
    House lost through fire? Ah, but elec is cheaper.
    And so on…

  13. And did anyone hear Jones’s churlish, grudging, self-aggrandizing, petulant, nasty little excuse for an “apology”?


  14. “Morrison has made a career out making announcements and then backing away or ignoring them thereafter.

    Our alias sees “bullshit” as a sustainable political strategy.”

    I think Labor could win some traction by putting out the meme “salesman scott”, “smarmy salesman scott” and “dodgy brother scott”. The guy’s careers is: child actor; salesman for the Property Council (i.e. spruiker for developers, real estate agents and dodgy bullshit artists – I haven’t checked, but I think his tenure would have been the the PCA was fighting tooth and nail to prevent any requirements for sustainability star ratings for buildings – now developers promote the eco-efficiency of developments); salesman for tourism authorities (i.e. bullshit artist for more bullshit artists) – including a ”job for the boy” political appointment to head of tourism australia; and adviser to pollies. He has never done an honest day’s work in his life.

    I think shorten could start saying “I’m not a slick dodgy brothers salesman like the other bloke, but…..”.

  15. Very tough times being a small L-liberal. Just chatted with another one of my acquaintance. He actually attends branch meetings in scrott’s electorate (where he’s been telling them that climate change is real!) I said, then you’ll have to vote Labor. He said “I can’t vote labor until they disendorse the CMFEU”. I said: “You can worry about the planet or you can worry about the CMFEU. Silence.
    Scrott is taken the libs over a cliff. If he thinks he can go to the next election without a credible climate policy, he’s beyond bonkers (which seems likely).

  16. From what Morrison and his minister said about the government’s attitude to Climate Change, it appears that the latest ploy is to recast any possible response purely in terms of electricity prices, rather than global warming.

    In effect what they are saying is that we as a nation will only respond to Climate Change if it can be done either for free, or at a profit. If we have to bear the slightest economic pain from acting then we’ll do nothing.

  17. lizzie @ #68 Tuesday, October 9th, 2018 – 8:01 am

    Your house flooded and insurance costs rising? Ah, but elec is cheaper.
    Thousands have to be spent in clearing storm damage? Ah, but elec is cheaper.
    House lost through fire? Ah, but elec is cheaper.

    Millions of climate refugees and people are starving to death because it’s too hot for them to grow any food? Ah, but elec is cheaper.

  18. What will be the point of cheaper electricity when we have to live inside all the time because the environment becomes an unlivable wasteland? And that’s if the increasingly severe storms, as a result of Anthropogenic Climate Change don’t result in this more often:

  19. Judith Sloan in the SmearStralian has hit peak stupid on analysing the IPCC report..

    Spare us this climate claptrap
    Here we go again — a group of henny penny scientists telling us the world is about to be transformed in a bad way unless we act.

  20. From Gary Hardgrave. Words fail me!
    This IPCC is a long slow con by lefty Climate Charlatans. Imagine how much money has been wasted and how much tax inflicted on everyone and how many older and poorer people have been hurt by these extra costs worldwide by government/UN edict since the 2006 “InCONvenient Truth”.

  21. Not a bad summary?

    Dianne Davis‏ @DavisNZAus · 2h2 hours ago

    We’ve seen enough of ‘new gen’ #Morrison to know:
    1. He’s intellectually mediocre & incurious
    2. He’s really crass and lacks gravitas
    3. He’s a liar and, by default, duplicitous
    4. His ‘vision’ is evangelically-based and science-phobic
    5. He is, by word and deed, a bigot.

  22. I also think shorten could start using the phrase “You can’t just pray and hope it will happen – you need a plan.”

    He could then go on to say “We had a climate plan that was working – Tony Abbott got rid of that; Malcolm Turnbull tried to have a plan – and Tony Abbott and Mr Morrison got rid of him. The liberal party is so at war with itself over climate change that it can never have a plan, and scott morrison lacks the leadership and courage to try to have plan. He is lying to you about having a plan to keep power prices low because new battery-supported solar and wind power is cheaper than new coal and could come on line sooner if the government stopped obstructing and campaigning against it. He’s lying about coal creating jobs because new solar and wind will employ more people and create new industries. And he’s lying about investment in new coal because the banks, super funds and investors are shunning new coal but would invest in renewables more if the government just got out of their way.”

    labor should also point out how much power prices have gone up and investment in new power has gone down/flatlined since the scrapping of the carbon price.

  23. The “Steak Knives” idea might be a good one.

    Whenever Morrison pitches some cock-headed two-for-one deal on the environment, the economy or anything much at all, just ask whether there’ll be a free set if steak knives with that. Depict him as the Demtel Spruiker From Hell.

    If he tries brinkmanship – as in ” Agree today or there’s no deal” threats to the Premiers – joke about how the first 20 callers receive a bonus free gift.

    Quip about anything he offers being “Not available in stores”.

    Or how his latest scheme “Slices, dices and juliennes. You get perfect chips, every time!”

    Keep it up and the punters will get the message I think.

  24. Anthony Albanese‏Verified account @AlboMP
    Replying to @margokingston1 @MSMWatchdog2013 and 7 others

    The journo interpretation, not mine – I made no comment about what was proposed originally by Racing nsw and support Louise Herron position of a minimal projection- and my interview was BEFORE the Jones interview which I have repeatedly said was inexcusable #FactsMatter

  25. The gender divide in America.

    Steve Kornacki@SteveKornacki
    2h2 hours ago
    We’ve generally taken the existence of a gender gap between the parties as a given since Reagan-Carter in 1980, but the numbers in the new CNN poll are off the charts. Trump’s job approval with men is +8 and with women -31 — a 39-point chasm.


  26. Sprocket_ @ #81 Tuesday, October 9th, 2018 – 9:25 am

    Judith Sloan in the SmearStralian has hit peak stupid on analysing the IPCC report..

    Spare us this climate claptrap
    Here we go again — a group of henny penny scientists telling us the world is about to be transformed in a bad way unless we act.

    I don’t think her grandchildren will thank her for behaving like an ignoramus and mouth-for-hire.

    I don’t think, government by old people, for old people, is going to cut it.

  27. Regarding battling scores…..and own goals….

    Just saying —

    Gee Dave, good thing your name’s not Nath or people around here might have an issue with you doing that sort of thing!

  28. The sad thing about ScoMo’s insistence that power prices stay down is that moving from coal to renewables should generate power more cheaply.
    However the owners of the stranded assets AKA coal fired power stations won’t be able to make such a massive profit.

    Imagine if wealthy Australians decided to install their own off grid energy sources – very doable now. From a social equity point of view if the power line runs outside your property you should be charged for connection to the grid, irrespective of whether the house is empty or not and whether you draw off electricity. If you have to install your own power poles then you have exemption

  29. Bushfire Bill @ #48 Tuesday, October 9th, 2018 – 8:21 am

    Just heard an interview with Melissa Price on AM. Even Sabra Lane couldn’t help her.

    Price was blustering, sarcastic, defensive, shrill, uninformed, deceptive and stupid. And she blamed Bill Shorten for the failure of Coalition policy. Even Sabra couldn’t stomach it, and took to her with a stick.

    As far as Environment ministers are concerned, can it be at last said that we have reached the bottom of the barrel?

    Shame Bill. Shame.

    This time you’ve gone too far. What is required is for the barrel to be reset spatially.

    The Limbo Bar for Environment Ministers is constantly reset so that each new iteration starts as though the Minister is approaching with the bar at a head high attitude.
    This, requires a minute adjustment to an observers point of reference so that he/she is looking from a Lagrange* point.

    And so it is readily seen that Ms. Price will, in the fullness of time, be seen as the very model of a science base supporter of Environment policies.


    Und zo, young man yew see that you put your left foot in, you put your left foot out ….

    The Hokey Pokey Song with Actions

    This may seem a little confusing to the new player, but in my defense I just got out of bed and have not yet made a fresh cup of coffee.

  30. lizzie

    TY for the Margot piece. It was a head scratcher for me as to why Albo would feel the need to comment at that time in the first place let alone what he was supposed to have said.

  31. Likely voters who live in 69 battleground House districts across the country narrowly prefer Democratic candidates, according to a new Washington Post-Schar School survey, a potentially worrying sign for Republicans given that the overwhelming percentage of these districts are currently in GOP hands.

    With just a month to the midterm elections and with early voting set to begin in many states, the new poll highlights the challenge for Republicans as they seek to maintain their House majority at a time when President Trump’s approval rating remains below 50 percent despite sustained economic growth, low unemployment and a rising stock market.

  32. Negative Gearing, the dispensation in the CGT and Dividend Imputation are advantages and significant advantages available to a certain demographic only – and not available to the bulk of Australian citizens

    Plus they all impact on and cause flawed investment strategies

    With Negative Gearing you firstly need to buy a house – so you need to raise finance from a lender who charges interest

    The very nature of the benefit sees the maximum amount available being borrowed (including 100% by offering collateral security to provide an overall LVR – so using the equity in your residential property) and the borrowing being interest only (why repay the debt and diminish the tax benefit?)

    Both of these considerations add risk – including now with cooling house prices banks reverting borrowings to Principal plus Interest repayments as we read

    Then there is the servicing because the interest has to be serviced monthly, from income ahead of attending a tax return and receiving a refund – and into this scenario is loans being renegotiated to P&I and increasing interest rates due to increasing Wholesale rates on Global Capital Markets including the currency impact and Risk impact on Australian banks , increasing Insurance premiums, increasing Council Rates and increasing water supply costs – along with repairs and maintenance costs

    So you have to be rich enough to be able to afford the cost of a negatively geared property because there are outgoings to be met ahead of receiving the tax refund

    Hence a certain demographic – and, no doubt, because of bank lending practices there are some so invested who are just not rich enough to be there – and if the house comes tumbling down because of servicing pressures or LVR pressures the residential home goes as well – and everything else courtesy of the Personal Covenant clauses in the security documentation

    What you do is use the losses on the investment property to reduce the tax liability on your other source(s) of income

    Then, of course you need the property tenanted – and the rent being paid

    So all risk unless you have a high paying vocation – and then you can be retrenched!

    The Capital Gains Tax dispensation benefits as per its description – so selective by definition, and why?

    As WAM responded to me in regards Dividend imputation “we are campaigning in the best interests of our shareholders which means no changes to the dividend imputation system” and “but as a Company our objective is protecting shareholder value”

    So selective – at expense to who exactly?

    I always subscribed to the generation of wealth being courtesy of compounding AND by repaying your debt including on an Investment property where I initially borrowed 50% of the purchase price, so wealth is unencumbered assets being what YOU own, not assets your banker owns

    And if your banker owns the asset the banker dictates to you

    Hence the 50%, because 1 principal plus interest repayment and the majority ownership was mine – not the bankers

    Then we get to society – and the requirements of government including managing the economy across the economic cycle and providing safety net assistance to those who do not have a bank owned negatively geared property, are a shareholder in WAM and have no prospect of accruing a Capital Gains Tax liability

    Could the earlier contributor respond to this assessment

    And, despite the turmoil of 25 years ago, not having worked since but having raised children and now remarried for over 20 years, my wife and I have over $5 Million in unencumbered assets, with an Allocated Pension income to our home of $150,000- PA plus some other bits and pieces such as interest on Term Deposits and rental income

    By following my own advice

    So spot the difference from those with negatively geared property, a shareholding in WAM and other like “wealth creators” and those looking for a dispensation in the CGT

    Simply, my wife and I are not sellers because we do not have to sell

    We maintain and add

    As I have put on here before I have always presented that everyone has the capacity to do something – the secret being not to over commit but equally not to under achieve

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