The second Newspoll of the Scott Morrison era is no better for the Coalition than the first, with Labor maintaining its 56-44 lead. As reported in The Australian, both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, Labor to 42% and the Coalition to 34%. The minor party primary votes are still to come (UPDATE: Greens steady on 10%, One Nation down one to 6%). Newspoll skipped the personal ratings questions a fortnight ago, so its results this week are the first ever for Morrison, and the first in four weeks for Bill Shorten. Morrison is on 41% approval and 39% disapproval, while Shorten is up five on approval to 37% and down five on disapproval to 51%. However, Shorten has not replicated the 39-33 lead he recorded on preferred prime minister in the immediate wake of the leadership change, and now trails 42-36. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1653.
C@tmomma @ #398 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 9:46 am
Yep.
steve davis @ #391 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 11:34 am
The warring generals. 🙂
“Morrison probably hasnt a clue about policy.Hes waiting for instructions from the monkey pod.”
And Rupert, Gina et al…
Morrison’s little inspiration hasn’t gone down too well. Rebellion?
Who would be the Muppet Newsreader?
Pyne: the instability is all Labor’s fault, and Morrison is going so well that he’s already preferred Prime Minister.
I well recall that when Rudd took over as leader Labor’s pv jumped about six points to about 48% (I think it was) and their 2pp went into the stratosphere and stayed there for about two years or more. I cannot recall though what the PPM readings were during that period between Howard and Rudd.
Can anyone assist with that information please?
USA – I believe the Democrats will retake the House at this November’s mid-terms. I don’t think they will get a Senate majority – I am tipping a final result (with the other 2/3 incumbents) of R50, Ind 1, D49. (And so VP Pence has the tie-break vote if Ind votes with Democrats).
I think the Democrats will achieve a Senate majority in 2020.
That said – If Trump is still in office in 2020 I fully expect him to be the Republican candidate and at this stage I still rate him as favourite to win even if the Democrats win both Houses of Congress. He will lose the popular vote again and have a narrower margin in the Electoral College.
On the other hand if Trump were to depart (resigning and being instantly pardoned like Nixon would seem a possible way out), I would imagine the Republicans would make sure it was after January 20th 2019. Because then President Pence would actually be eligible to serve just short of ten years! (a quirk in the 22nd Amendment allows this – for instance Gerald Ford if he had won in 1976 could not have run and won in 1980, because he would have served from August 1974 to January 1985, longer than two and a half terms.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-second_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
Even Pyne is laughing at his own words.He doesnt even believe what he is saying.
The ABC’s Eryk Bagshaw tweets
Christopher Pyne, in the first sitting week since Turnbull was removed: “Labor created a very unfortunate atmosphere in Australian politics in the last 10 years where changing the leader became de rigueur in Australian politics and it’s the wrong thing to have done.” #auspol
Pyne: Morrison has the hard heads in caucus and the union movement scared. This is a comedy routine!
There is good news out there somewhere; this was interesting; Monsanto (now Bayer?)are not quite all powerful
https://www.opednews.com/articles/Monsanto-s-subpoena-on-Ava-by-Stephen-Fox-Activist_Avaaz-Ricken-Patel_Consumer-Protection_Dewayne-Johnson-Roundup-Cancer-Victim-180908-297.html
“Dutton
I did not have sexual relations with that girl moment.”
So it’s officially denied.
Pyne slipped up. He just said the Latest Boat arrival!!!
I see Pyne is getting a lot of backing from his party from the empty benches.
Robert Ball thanks for your report of the Morrison – Kroger Bastiaan meeting. ScoMo is a dangerous man if he can curb the wildest Kroger Bastiaan excesses and make Vic Libs put personable candidates at one & two on Senate ticket
If he can remove Abetz Abbott & Andrews Australia could be a better place and he could be a long serving Prime Minister
Kay jay in Rake I had to laugh at the way all pollies had Australia flag lapel pins. One hypocrit had Australia flag, Christian fish and a sprig of rosemary
RR
“R50, Ind 1, D49.”
Who is the Ind?
IIRC, both Independents (King and Sanders) will be up for re-election in 2018, and both should cruise to victory. Both senators caucus with the Democrats.
ItzaDream says:
Monday, September 10, 2018 at 11:18 am
I just got a tick off me.
I’m at about 800m in the highlands, and when I asked about dogs and ticks 20 years ago I was laughed out of the coop. They either just weren’t, or didn’t overwinter.
Now it’s early September and I just got a tick off me.
_____________________
Was it heath country? That’s where we get them, botanising in coastal heath. Not at 800 m though.
Be thankful it wasn’t in Southern Europe, or worse still Siberia.
I got one (castor bean tick) in July when bushwalking in Southern Germany, and it was full on panic for me.
The local ticks carry both Lyme disease (Lyme borreliosis bacteria, which is treated by antibiotics to forestall its development) and the TBE virus, Tick-borne encephalitis. Not a joke at all if you get it.
Fortunately all is well.
Locals who walk in the area are advised to be immunised against the virus. The vaccination program has reduced the occurrence within the human population.
Shorten Suite
@Shorten_Suite
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If you’re not watching the House of Reps, Chris Pyne just said changing the Liberal Leader to Scott Morrison “wasn’t the right thing to do”.
Then blames Labor.
Cannot. Make. This. Up.
Oh I do wish Amanda Vanstone was still around – She would fit the Miss Piggy Mould brilliantly. Cormann is definitely the Swedish Chef.
Pyne:
Still no mention of wages or conditions. A job without good wages and conditions is just serfdom and slavery.
Victoria says:
Monday, September 10, 2018 at 12:00 pm
Shorten Suite
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If you’re not watching the House of Reps, Chris Pyne just said changing the Liberal Leader to Scott Morrison “wasn’t the right thing to do”.
Then blames Labor.
Cannot. Make. This. Up.
_______________
So Labor is pulling the strings of the LNP puppets? Who knew Labor had so much power!
I blame Bill Shorten.
“A sandwich a week” Vanstone?
@ Observer
One and the same!!
Vote delay
I wonder who is threatening to cross the floor?
Probably another George Christensen power play. Hope he is trying to get Banking Royal Commission extended
kakuru
I tend to put Sanders in Democrat column seeing as he ran to become their Presidential candidate and may do so again – but yes strictly Independent. R50 Ind 2 D48
Re Congressional mid terms: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/ . It’s interesting to see the extent of the bias in favour of Republicans
Under Morrison, policy development is going to be very easy.
For example, the new Liberal Party LGBTQ policy is for prayers to God asking him not to create any more of us/them!! 🙂
don @ #418 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 11:59 am
Fortune favouring the brave!
Not heath don, no, but a series of transitional zones between open forest, tall forest, and rainforest – sandstone ridges and deep gullies. But I must have caught it when I was in the house gardens yesterday, so domestic garden, but natives all. I grew up with ticks on the North Shore, so they don’t worry me. But ticks in early September is just another marker of how the climate is changing.
outsider
Thats with courts ruling maps unconstitutional where not redrawn.
So yes undemocratic vote really very Joh Bjleke Peterson.
Its why people may be underestimating chances of Democratic wins in the Senate. Its probably the best time for Democrats to be up for reelection rather than when a red wave is happening. The right mantra is the Democrats stand to lose seats just because they are up for reelection.
Upnorth @ #417 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 12:02 pm
We think alike
I had marked those two down. I am NOT a muppet expert and my knowledge has increased several 100% today.
But we cannot ignore the Sesame St muppets – Big Bird and Groucho and Oscar and Mr Snuffleopegus
I guess that since he is never there Arthur Sinodinos might make Snuffleopagos.
Prissy Pyne for Bigbird?????
The Count!!!! – Joe Hockey?
Turnbull would have to be the assistant who get blown up al the time
Labor is responsible for the “Liberals” changing their leader 4 times in a decade.
Nelson –> Turnbull 2008
Turnbull –> Abbott 2009
Abbott –> Turnbull 2015
Turnbull –> Morrison 2018.
Or do they just keep electing duds?
Bob Katter in parliament voting with the government.
72 to 68 for the government
@ DareToTread
Eric Abetz and Ian Macdonald. The two old guys whinging from the balcony.
This is simply childish. Whatever the Kill Bill effect was on the average punter, this rubbish will inoculate anyone with ears and a memory.
guytaur @ #424 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 12:08 pm
What are we voting on?
With the Coalition coffers empty, I imagine fighting 2 Federal elections (half senate and then the house), and a Victorian and NSW election within a year would break the bank…..
AR
No confidence motion. Think it was about Dutton
For electoral purposes, the US Senate is divided into 3 classes, with a third of senators up for re-election every 2 years, and elected for a 6 year term. This year, 33 senate seats are up for election – 24 of which are currently held by Democrats, and 9 held by Republicans. Based on this split, it will be very difficult for the Democrats to achieve a net gain of more than 1 or 2 seats
Outsider
Yes thats the narrative. However its only difficult if the historic turnout numbers remain static. If there truly is blue wave as I said it could actually be the best time for the Democrats to have so many seats up for election.
If that happens then its not difficult as all. Landslide wins tend to do that.
I am not overstating the difficulty I am just pointing out that with voluntary voting the swings can be great and its probably the best time for the Democrats to have so many seats up for election as its their greatest chance to hold them and maybe gain.
Thats the alternative spin
Rex Patrick is on Sky indicating he (and therefore Centre Alliance) would not be supporting a no confidence motion in Peter Dutton.
He says on the basis of what he heard from Dutton (the statement), he doesn’t believe it sounds like anything unusual occurred – that he himself has contacted ministers on behalf of constituents.
I’m not so sure I would have taken at face value what Dutton put in his statement to the House.
For example, Dutton states:
I seriously doubt that Bandt was making that inference with his question to Dutton. So, straw man answer there by Dutton.
Yes, but a grandee of the SA Liberal Party’s family was involved(the Maclachlan family), fast friends you could almost guarantee with Nick Minchin, Conservative godfather to then young turks in federal parliament like Dutton. So, no direct relation but an obviously indirect one who could get the Minister to jump as high as they wanted and clear the bar on a Sunday for them as regards the au pair.
A representation was received by my office specifically my chief of staff
From someone who had that person’s personal phone number, and on a Sunday was able to get prompt action on the matter, because it was… from an AFL government relations officer who just happened to be a former Liberal Party employee.
My chief of staff requested information, regarding the matter, from the department.
On a Sunday.
The department compiled a submission, including all relevant information.
Toot sweet. On a Sunday.
Who else gets that sort of treatment from Dutton!?!
I’d vouchsafe not one Labor MP.
On a Sunday. And do we know whether their was an implicit understanding as to what the required recommendation should be? Coming as it did straight from the Minister’s COS. On a Sunday.
On a Sunday, just before I was to head out of the country. And as requested and expected by all concerned.
So it’s probably a 60-40 newspoll 2PP if you disregard the Shorten drag effect.
Lizzie:
“Dreadful Misconduct. Senior LNP Member of Parliament Warren Entsch accuses Rupert Murdoch employees of directly contacting Members attempting to influence how they vote with that Murdoch axe a threat in the background. Media tyranny poisoning the democratic process. ”
Yes it would seem that a significant part of the explanation for the total incompetence of the Dutton coup attempt(s) was that News Limited employees—rather than political people—were doing the leg work (or not doing it, as the case may be). Perhaps they should stick to going out to lunch etc?
Mr Scott Morrison PM (is that better William?) seems to have very flexible sporting allegiance.
https://twitter.com/matttburke/status/1038948629749424128
Who was the Intelligence Officer for drought, again? Oh, that’s right, the guy who wants more dams but who doesn’t believe that global warming is real!
Who would be Beaker and Dr Bunsen Honeydew?
Outsider
The obsesssive-compulsive part of me wants the USA to make a 51st state – just so there can be 102 Senators, with three equal ‘classes’ of 34. I used to think it would be Puerto Rico but I now think that is unlikely.
But the District of Columbia has a population of around 700,000 – already more than Vermont or Wyoming and closing in on Alaska. In the same way that Australia eventually allowed the ACT and NT to have Senate representation it would seem fair to allow this for DC. They have only one non-voting Representative in the House (similar to what the NT and ACT originally had also) .