Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor

Plenty of work to do for the new Prime Minister, if his Newspoll debut offers even the slightest guide. ReachTEL seat polls offer a somewhat more mixed picture.

The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor has opened a towering two-party lead of 56-44, compared with 51-49 in the last poll under Malcolm Turnbull a fortnight ago. Labor is up fully six points on the primary vote to 41%, while the Coalition is down four to 33%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is down two to 7%. Bill Shorten also holds a 39-33 lead over Scott Morrison on preferred prime minister, which compares with 44-32 in Turnbull’s last poll. No indication yet of whether the normal field work dates of Thursday to Sunday, or the sample of 1600, were amended according to circumstances.

UPDATE: The Newspoll turns out to have been conducted from Friday to Saturday, so with Thursday chopped off the usual survey period, but with the sample size much as usual at 1783. It also has a best Liberal leader question that differs from earlier results in suggesting a transfer of support from Malcolm Turnbull to Scott Morrison, leaving Julie Bishop in first place on 29%, Morrison second on 25%, Turnbull third on 14%, and Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton at 11% and 6% respectively, much as they were before. A “more capable of handling the economy” question has Morrison leading Shorten 44-34. It doesn’t appear the usual leadership approval ratings were featured in the poll.

The Fairfax papers also have three ReachTEL polls for marginal Coalition seats, conducted over two nights rather than ReachTEL’s usual one and apparently with bigger than usual samples (I say apparently because each of the three results tables cites a sample size of 1047 respondents, which surely can’t be right). The results are highly diverse: strong for Peter Dutton in Dickson, adequate for Craig Laundy in Banks and disastrous for Michael Sukkar in Deakin. However, they differ from Newspoll in having Morrison leading Shorten on preferred prime minister.

• Peter Dutton leads 54-46 in Dickson, compared with his post-redistribution margin of 2.0%. Morrison holds a particularly big lead over Bill Shorten here as preferred prime minister, of 58.6-414.

• After a high-profile week of public support for Malcolm Turnbull, Craig Laundy leads 52-48 in Reid, compared with a post-redistribution margin of 4.7%. Morrison’s lead over Shorten is 55-45.

• Michael Sukkar, a conservative spear-carrier for the push to remove Malcolm Turnbull, trails Labor 53-47 in his eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin, a 9.3% swing.

The polls also find voter overwhelmingly opposed to the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull, opposed to an early election, not wanting Tony Abbott to return to the front bench, opposed to withdrawing from the Paris agreement, and broadly favourable views on Scott Morrison’s performance as Treasurer. There is no great variation on these results between the three seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,354 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor”

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  1. Isn’t it good when we have free speech, not $300k a year pontificating from the likes of Triggs and Soutphomasane.

  2. Who is up for a bit of retro spill action? Full episode! Liberal Party coups were a lot slicker back in the day, but their brazen willingness to talk about it was considered an outrage after this aired.

    True Believers – 1989
    Reporter Marian Wilkinson presents a compelling portrait of a Liberal Party political coup, revealing secret plans to replace John Howard with Andrew Peacock.—1989/2841768

  3. The other takeout from 4C was that Barnaby really is a nasty bastard … and for once telling it like it is – i.e. they all have to be liars to make it in the game of politics … all the guff from the libs about ALP being liars and BJ admits they are ALL liars.

    I hope ALP takes that snippet and shoves it right back in the coalition’s faces whenever they pretend to be holier-than-thou

  4. Yay! We have a right to be a bigot! And we didn’t even have to change 18c. Just turn Sky After Dark into Fox News and let the populace have at it! Oh frabjous joy! What a time to be alive!

  5. I’ve put the feelers out for Qanda to come to Albany. I’d bet London to a brick we’d have better discussion topics than what Qld is throwing up for us tonight.

  6. The thing I found most interesting takeout from 4C was that it was Cash and Cormann shopping the petition around the Liberal Party!

  7. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, August 27, 2018 at 10:17 pm

    Sadly I have made a rake’s progress from Julie Newmar as Catwoman to the Gosford Godzilla.
    I’ve undergone a similar journey.

    Youth is full of sport, age’s breath is short youth is nimble, age is lame Youth is hot and bold, age is weak and cold Youth is wild, and age is tame.

  8. Tony Jones lives in Paddington ( Sydney)maybe customs won’t allow him back in the country on arrival at Kingsford Smith from FNQ

  9. L/NP, Morrison, Abbott can’t handle power generation, prices and climate change.
    The new SA premier is doing some research on the L/NP going down the nuclear path. Australia produces more than 25% of the world’s uranium and supplies over 400 nuclear facilities around the world. $B120 over 100 years up for grabs just to bury the worlds waste.
    If he can’t cope with wind turbines, solar panels and hydro power, I don’t think the PM can handle nuclear. But he could use research as a delaying tactic.

  10. @poroti

    “not for nothing do they call it the Deep North ”

    Actually NQ has a proud tradition supporting the Labor and working cause. At a State level – Mackay, Townsville and Cairns return Labor members at most elections (2012 the exception). Mt Isa also until Rob Katter (Bob’s son) returned Labor members. Until the 1957 most the country “sugar and beef” seats also returned Labor Members. Charters Towers and Ravenswood to the west of Townsville were early cradles of the Labor Party. And of course the old electorate of Bowen which is now mostly Burdekin returned the only Communist ever elected to an Australian Parliament – Fred Paterson. NQ was known as the Red North. Labor has strong roots in North Queensland, but sadly Federally fails to convert most of the time.

  11. Septic says:
    Monday, August 27, 2018 at 10:24 pm
    Tony Jones lives in Paddington ( Sydney)maybe customs won’t allow him back in the country on arrival at Kingsford Smith from FNQ

    Septic Mackay is part of North Queensland – FNQ starts 600 km up the Bruce Highway at Cardwell.

  12. Larissa Waters literally said that if you’ve had a couple of drinks, it’s fine if you get eaten by crocs. Absolutely farcical.

  13. sprocket_
    I was up the NT for a while. The rules about not being eaten by a croc are pretty simple. Rule No.1 assume any body of water has a croc in it. After that life is simple. Drunks are much more likely to ignore Rule No.1.

  14. When the date for the Wentworth by election is announced, if it appears contrived, it will be interesting to see how the ABC reports it.

    Can they push it out as far as December? After all that is when the ALP conference is on.

  15. Larissa Waters is right about drunks around water with crocs. Unfortunately its one of those you cant state the obvious things.

  16. The woman on 0.3% trying to distance herself to save her skin

    But no mention of any of the issues which bought Turnbull down the principal of which was an emissions target and the second of which is immigration (but they can come here if they have a job to come to and are “one of us” according to Abbott today)

    Instead of bleating on as she has putting blame on the majority of the Party she represents (hence Turnbull resigning from the parliament and Bishop on the back bench) she seeks to present herself as pure to retain her marginal seat – but no mention of the issues

    If she is criticising the defeat of the pm and his Deputy can her electorate therefore assume she supports an emissions target – and therefore at odds with the Party she represents

    And, of course, the pertinent questions were not asked so nobody knows what she stands for

  17. For all those LOLing about Larissa. In my time in the NT the people that ended up as croc dinner did tend to be ‘alcohol enhanced’ at the time.

  18. No-one is saying that being drunk around croc-infested waters is a clever idea but saying it’s fine for them to be killed by crocs is not okay.

  19. No-one is saying that being drunk around croc-infested waters is a clever idea but saying it’s fine for them to be killed is not okay.
    Better than them getting behind the wheel and wiping out families at intersections.

  20. Generic Person

    Think of it as Darwinism in action. Those that forget about crocs when drunk are removed from the gene pool whilst others like nath who remain sufficiently alert to crocs when drunk survive.

  21. Governments do not win by elections

    Each has a different circumstance so history means nothing

    What happened to Kennett’s seat when he resigned after being beaten (and Murdoch’s first editions told us their pin up boy had won in a landslide)?

    I seem to recall the newly elected government won the seat from the opposition

  22. Generic Person @ #1288 Monday, August 27th, 2018 – 10:39 pm

    but saying it’s fine for them to be killed is not okay

    Explain why.

    Animals do what animals do. They don’t think or choose. They’re not subject to morality. Dangle food in front of them and they’ll eat it if they’re hungry. That’s it. It’s what they do.

    People are the things that can think and choose. If a person chooses to go into the habitat of a hungry animal that’s big enough to consider them food and they get eaten, how is that “not okay”? The person is the only one who should have known better, and for whatever reason, they didn’t. Doing something stupid can have consequences. Up to and including death.

    Although as the Labor person pointed out, people haven’t actually been eaten anyways.

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